基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE法的国有商业银行竞争力评价

随着金融业全方位开放,国有商业银行已成为国家经济命脉的核心,其竞争力强弱关系着国家经济的繁荣与衰退。本文基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE方法建立国有商业银行竞争力评价模型,以因素神经网络理论(FNN)与ELECTRE融合方法为基础,以现有商业银行竞争力评价指标为着眼,把国有商业银行竞争力的评价体系从现实竞争力和潜在竞争力两个因素抽取为一级指标,以规模、质量、业务结构、效率、成长性五个因素设为二级指标。从实证的角度对银行A、银行B、银行C、银行D、银行E五大国有银行进行分析验证,对其属性值进行和谐性与非和谐性检验得出,银行B竞争能力最强,银行E竞争能力最弱,五大国有银行均有改进空间。     

Personae at play. ‘Men of Mathematics’ in commentary

Mathematical writers, above all, Euclid, tend to present their theorems as decontextualized, abstract propositions, which has become the standard modus of textual presentation in theoretical mathematics. Mathematical commentators, however, provide their readers with personal names and historical facts in order to elucidate problems, provide contexts of discovery, or construct doxographies, among other things. Modern readers have used such information for the construction of histories of science. When we look at these passages, however, we see that personal names and information about mathematicians of the past can serve quite a range of different objectives, such as the strategic self-positioning of the commentator vis-à-vis the past or present of mathematics, the education of the reader, mathematical or moral, the construction of the history of the field, etc. Not only does the commentator present a persona of himself to the reader, he can also turn colleagues and predecessors into personae. This paper attempts to elucidate the practice, by offering four examples of such plays of and with personae, in Pappus, Eutocius, al-Nayrīzī, and Proclus.     

Formulation of linear problems and solution by a universal machine

Using the predicate language for ordered fields a class of problems referred to aslinear problems is defined. This class contains, for example, all systems of linear equations and inequalities, all linear programming problems, all integer programming problems with bounded variables, all linear complementarity problems, the testing of whether sets that are defined by linear inequalities are semilattices, all satisfiability problems in sentenial logic, the rank-computation of matrices, the computation of row-reduced echelon forms of matrices, and all quadratic programming problems with bounded variables. A single, one, algorithm, to which we refer as theUniversal Linear Machine, is described. It solves any instance of any linear problem. The Universal Linear Machine runs in two phases. Given a linear problem, in the first phase a Compiler running on a Turing Machine generates alinear algorithm for the problem. Then, given an instance of the linear problem, in the second phase the linear algorithm solves the particular instance of the linear problem. The linear algorithm is finite, deterministic, loopless and executes only the five ordered field operations — additions, multiplications, subtractions, divisions and comparisons. Conversely, we show that for each linear algorithm there is a linear problem which the linear algorithm solves uniquely. Finally, it is shown that with a linear algorithm for a linear problem, one can solve certain parametric instances of the linear problem.Research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation Grant DMS 92-07409, by the Department of Energy Grant DE-FG03-87-ER-25028, by the United States—Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant 90-00434 and by ONR Grant N00014-92-J1142.Corresponding author.     

Wave parameter identification problem for ocean test structure data,part 2, discrete formulation

This paper deals with the solution of the wave parameter identification problem for ocean test structure data. A discrete formulation is assumed. An ocean test structure is considered, and wave elevation and velocities are assumed to be measured with a number of sensors. Within the frame of linear wave theory, a Fourier series model is chosen for the wave elevation and velocities. Then, the following problem is posed: Find the amplitudes of the various wave components of specified frequency and direction, so that the assumed model of wave elevation and velocities provides the best fit to the measured data. Here, the term best fit is employed in the least-square sense over a given time interval.At each time instant, the wave representation involves four indexes (frequency, direction, instrument, time); hence, four-dimensional arrays are required. This formal difficulty can be avoided by switching to an alternative representation involving only two indexes (frequency-direction, instrument-time); hence, standard vector-matrix notation can be used. Within this frame, optimality conditions are derived for the amplitudes of the assumed wave model.A characteristic of the wave parameter identification problem is that the condition number of the system matrix can be large. Therefore, the numerical solution is not an easy task and special procedures must be employed. Specifically, Gaussian elimination is avoided and advantageous use is made of the Householder transformation, in the light of the least-square nature of the problem and the discretized approach to the problem.Numerical results are presented. The effect of various system parameters (number of frequencies, number of directions, sampling time, number of sensors, and location of sensors) is investigated in connection with global or strong accuracy, local or weak accuracy, integral accuracy, and condition number of the system matrix.From the numerical experiments, it appears that the wave parameter identification problem has a unique solution if the number of directions is smaller than or equal to the number of sensors; it has an infinite number of solutions otherwise. In the case where a unique solution exists, the condition number of the system matrix increases as the size of the system increases, and this has a detrimental effect on the accuracy. However, the accuracy can be improved by proper selection of the sampling time and by proper choice of the number and location of the sensors.Generally speaking, the computations done for the discrete case exhibit better accuracy than the computations done for the continuous case (Ref. 5). This improved accuracy is a direct consequence of having used advantageously the Householder transformation and is obtained at the expense of increased memory requirements and increased CPU time.This work was supported by Exxon Production Research Company, Houston, Texas. This paper is based partly on Refs. 1–4.     

提高维吾尔文搜索质量的一些关键技术研究

维吾尔语和土耳其语、乌兹别克语、哈萨克语等同属于阿尔泰语系突厥语分支,是一种粘着型语言,具有丰富的构词合构形附加成分.主要分布于中国新疆维吾尔自治区,以及中西亚地区的维吾尔族使用.目前使用基于阿拉伯文字母的维吾尔文.当前用google,bing等搜索引擎搜索维吾尔文时搜索结果不包括该词语的构词合构形附加成分等其它形式.严重影响了搜索结果的准确性.通过词干提取和词缀附加生成词语组合的方法以解决提高维吾尔文搜索质量的问题.此问题解决,将在大幅度提高维吾尔文搜索的准确性,并针对提高其它突厥语族语言(土耳其语、乌兹别克语、哈萨克语等)的搜索质量、数据挖掘、数据分析、数据安全、自然语言理解等研究领域有一定的参考价值.     

公众参与视角下的央地环境规制博弈分析

本文首先构建环境规制中中央政府和地方政府的两方演化博弈模型,并在此基础上将公众作为第三方参与主体,构建中央政府、地方政府和公众三方演化博弈模型,详细比较两方和三方博弈模型的区别,探究各个主体策略行为的影响因素。研究发现:(1)未有公众参与下,地方政府策略选择主要受地方政府积极执行成本、环境收益、经济损失,消极执行的环境政绩损失,中央政府监管力度、治理补贴和对地方政府的处罚等因素影响;中央政府的监管策略主要受到严格监管的成本以及对地方政府的治理补贴和处罚等因素影响。引入公众参与后,在央地两方博弈的基础上,地方政府环境规制执行策略的影响因素还增加了地方政府被举报后所受到的追加处罚,中央政府监管策略的影响因素还增加了中央政府监管力度、对地方政府的追加处罚以及中央政府的公信力损失。(2)未有公众参与下,中央政府严格监管的概率随地方政府积极执行概率的增大而减小。引入公众参与后,中央政府严格监管率随地方政府积极执行概率的增大而增大。说明在公众参与下,地方政府积极执行环境规制对中央政府严格监管产生的抑制作用转变成了促进作用。(3)地方政府积极执行的概率、中央政府严格监管的概率都随公众举报概率的增大而增大。说明公众参与不仅对地方政府承担环保责任具有促进作用,而且有利于促使中央政府落实环境治理政策。     

考虑成本、等待时间和安全水平的分类安检模式研究

近年来,随着民航机场旅客吞吐量快速增加,机场安检部门的工作压力正不断加大,旅客等待时间也正在逐渐增加。针对该问题,引入了分类安检模式。然而,分类安检模式通常需要额外的投资成本,可能会产生较大的财务负担。因此,以成本为目标,综合考虑旅客等待时间和安全水平的要求,研究了分类安检模式和传统安检模式的比较以及最优决策性质等相关问题。首先,考虑安全水平和旅客等待时间的约束,分别为传统安检模式和分类安检模式建立了模型,并分析了其最优运营决策性质。其次,从成本的角度,对两种安检模式做了比较研究。研究结果表明,当旅客数量多、安检犯错容忍度较高或旅客等待敏感时,分类安检模式比传统安检模式表现更优;反之,传统安检模式更优。此外,在分类安检模式中,分配到高风险安检通道的旅客比例存在一个最优值,并且其通常在20%到30%之间取到。最后,通过数值分析验证了分类安检模式的最优服务配置。     

树脂基复合材料粘接的优化设计

本文在试验数据和理论分析的基础上,提出树脂基复合材料单搭接的优化设计的原则,胶粘剂的选择、被粘物的设计,粘接长度的选择、胶层厚度的选择等.认为通过优化设计可以提高粘接强度,减轻产品的重量,提高其质量.     

A double-stage piecewise recursive filter for real-time applications

This paper examines the basic problem of estimating the state of a system described by a set of dynamical equations. The state estimation is performed by means of optimal filtering techniques in which the state observation is given by a set of nonlinear equations.The basic issue encountered in most engineering problems is the availability of more observable information than the processor can effectively process in real-time, while performing full optimal filtering on all available observable data. To alleviate this deficiency, an algorithm is developed in which the rate of information processing is kept at a high value, while the system statistics are evaluated at a much slower rate.The method utilizes a combination of fast and slow filtering loops, in which the observable data are processed at a high rate during the fast loop, while the system error covariance, gain computations, and all other system statistics are processed at a lower rate in the slow loop. Methods are provided to resolve any incompatibility in the system statistics resulting from this fast-loop/slow-loop processing combination.Applications describing problems pertaining to aircraft navigation are presented. Specifically, applications to aircraft navigation through a satellite network are studied. Appropriate simulation results from the above studies are shown.This work was performed under contract with the Department of the Air Force, Space and Missile Organization (SAMSO), Los Angeles, California, Contract No. F04-701-75-C-0180.The authors are indebted to Dr. C. Johnson, GPS System Engineer, Mr. G. Consolver, GPS Software Manager, and Mr. W. Riley, Communications/Navigation Department, Texas Instruments for their continuous encouragement in the course of this work. Also, they are indebted to Major M. Birnbaum, SAMSO, for his constructive criticism on the conceptual design of this work, and to Mr. A. Bierman, Aerospace Corporation, for kindly providing simulation data of aircraft trajectories. Finally, the authors would like to express their gratitude to Dr. N. Carlson, Intermetrics, for valuable consultation during the progress of this work.Portions of this paper were presented by the senior author at the GSP Conference, Plan 76, IEEE Position, Location, and Navigation Symposium, San Diego, California, 1976.     

公路货运平台延迟赔付服务定价策略研究

考虑延迟赔付率、车主延迟风险、货主物流时效关注度的影响下,研究两种延迟赔付定价策略的选择问题,通过逆向求解法获取最优均衡。发现:(1)车主网络外部性大于货主两倍的情况,平台始终选择C策略。反之,若车主延迟风险低于某临界值、货主对物流时效的关注度高于某临界值,应选F策略;否则选C策略。(2)无论F策略还是C策略,平台收益均随车主延迟风险的降低、货主对时效性关注度的提升而提升,不受赔付率影响。(3)若选F策略,则不对货主补贴。若选C策略,车主的网络外部性大于货主的情况下始终实行补贴;反之,只有当车主延迟风险、货主物流时效的关注度满足条件时进行补贴。最后,用数值仿真结论进行验证。     

基于EGB2分布族的GAS-EGARCH模型与VaR预测

GARCH族模型是刻画资产收益率的常用工具,在风险度量领域具有广泛应用。为了更有效地描述收益率的偏斜厚尾等特征,越来越多学者对GARCH族模型的条件分布形式进行了研究。但是仅对GARCH模型条件分布进行修正是不够的,还需要对模型本身的函数形式进行修正。基于得分函数的时变参数建模思想近年来受到广泛关注,本文借助这一思想对EGARCH模型中对数标准差进行时变波动建模,并利用EGB2分布族作为模型的条件分布,进而建立GAS-EGARCH-EGB2模型。以我国10只中证行业指数为研究对象考察GAS-EGARCH-EGB2模型的风险预测效果,GAS-EGARCH-EGB2模型样本外VaR预测表现普遍优于ACM-EGARCH-EGB2模型。     

The Poincaré index and the χy-characteristic of Hirzebruch

In the paper, we discuss several methods for computing the homology of contravariant and covariant versions of the classical De Rham complex on analytic spaces. Our approach is based on the theory of holomorphic and regular meromorphic differential forms, and is applicable in different settings depending on concrete types of varieties. Among other things, we describe how to compute by elementary calculations the homological index of vector fields and differential forms given on Cohen–Macaulay curves, graded normal surfaces, complete intersections and some others. In these situations, making use of ideas of X. Gómez-Mont, we derive explicit expressions for the local topological index of Poincaré and its generalizations. Furthermore, applying similar methods to the study of certain other complexes, we investigate some challenges, relating to the computation of classical topological–analytical invariants, such as the Euler characteristic of the Milnor fibre of an isolated singularity, the multiplicity of the discriminant of the versal deformation, the dimension of torsion and cotorsion modules, and so on.     

关于药物对小鼠肝脏细胞色素P-450含量的影响实验结果的分析

肝药酶诱导剂苯巴比妥能诱导细胞色素P-450的合成,而肝药酶抑制剂放线菌素D能抑制细胞色素P-450的合成,本实验应用示差光谱法对P-450含量加以测定.本文改进了传统的计算药后诱导组和抑制组P-450含量增加或减少的百分比来评价药物的方法,在M athem atica数学软件环境下,对数据进行方差分析和t检验,提高了数据处理精度和可信度.并对原方法表示怀疑.     

颤振分析中的特征值排序问题

颤振分析中判断颤振临界速度的重要依据是系统V-g和V-f图,即系统特征值随参数的变化曲线.在几乎所有商用软件及自编程序的输出结果中,有时会出现所谓的"窜支"现象,这给颤振临界速度和颤振穿越分支及耦合形式的判断带来很大不便.通过隐函数定理可以证明,除重特征值点以外,系统特征值连续依赖于系统参数变化.依据多元向量值函数连续性,建立对特征值的排列算法,给出系统特征根轨迹的正确曲线,再输出V-g和V-f图数据,从而避免"窜支"现象.编制应用程序,通过几个典型算例对算法进行了验证.该工作能够有效简化颤振分析的后处理工作,提高分析效率.     

Minimizing the Difference of Dual Functions of Two Coradiant Functions

In this article, we solve the problem of minimizing the difference of dual functions of two coradiant functions. We do this by applying a type of duality, that is used in microeconomic theory. Indeed, the dual function of a co-radiant function is decreasing and inverse coradiant. So, we first give various characterizations for the maximal elements of the support sets of this class of functions. Next, by using these results, we obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for the global minimizers of the difference of two decreasing and inverse coradiant functions. Finally, as an application, we present the necessary and sufficient conditions for the global minimizers of the difference of dual functions of two co-radiant functions.     

双边配给问题的Shapley解及其在博物馆通票问题中的应用

双边配给问题描述了现实生活中一类带有二部图结构的稀缺资源配置问题, 例如, 在自然灾害期间救援物资的配给; 电力和天然气等自然资源按需分配; 高校引进人才调配等。本文通过求解线性规划, 并从联盟边际贡献的角度出发定义了双边配给问题的一个Shapley解。之后, 通过合作对策模型和解的公理化方法说明新解的合理性。首先, 建立双边配给问题的合作对策模型, 论证了新解与双边配给合作对策的Shapley值一致; 其次, 证明了Shapley解是唯一满足优先一致性的有效配给方案。最后, 将Shapley解应用于博物馆通票问题的研究, 探讨了博物馆合作制定通票后所得单票和通票收益的分配方式。     

一类非线性金融系统分岔混沌拓扑结构与全局复杂性研究（Ⅱ）

首先从一类复杂金融系统的数学模型出发,在前期研究工作的基础上,主要研究这一模型所反映的我国宏观金融系统运行中可能出现的各种情况：平衡、稳定周期、分形、Hopf分岔、参数与Hopf分岔之间的关系;直到混沌运动等,通过理论分析和数值模拟计算来研究模型中各参数的变化情况,然后依此来分析这类金融系统局部产生复杂行为的条件,以及某一参数的变化对宏观经济政策的调整及对整个金融系统行为的影响情况,这一研究将有助于加深人们对各种金融政策杠杆作用的理解。     

基于电商平台的混合销售渠道对供应链决策的影响研究

考虑到电商平台对消费者强大的吸引力,本文建立了由供应商和平台商构成的基于电商平台混合销售的供应链模型。混合销售渠道包含直销和分销,其中平台商拥有电商平台,供应商通过电商平台进行直销,平台商分享一定的收益;而分销是指平台商从供应商处批发产品进行销售。分别建立了集中式和分散式决策模型,研究发现:随着消费者对分销渠道接受程度的提高,两种情形下直销渠道的零售价不变,分销渠道的零售价提高;分散式情形下的批发价、供应商和平台商的利润均提高;随着供应商分享收益比例的提高,两种渠道的零售价都降低,但批发价提高,供应商的利润提高,而平台商的利润下降,但供应链的总利润提高;研究得到了保证博弈双方都能从直销渠道中获利的收益分享比例范围。     

Utilization and maintenance in a model with scrapping

We consider a productive asset, called equipment or capital good, and we examine the properties of, as well as the interactions between, the operating policies, which are determined by its optimal utilization and maintenance, and the capital policy of scrapping, which defines the optimal time when the productive asset is retired from its current use. Starting with an abstract model and using the approach of optimal control, initially we characterize the various types of equipment by assigning to them a single total profit index, which indicates how the above policies affect the flow of operating revenues plus capital gains or losses. This index is a function of market-determined prices. So using it we then investigate how the operating and capital policies are influenced by the rate of discount, the price of new equipment, and the rise or fall of the price of new equipment relative to the value of its output. Among other interesting results, we find that the effects of these prices on the nature and interactions of optimal policies depend crucially on whether the equipment is of the usual profit making type, where output is the main source of revenue, or of the antique type, where the main source of revenue is capital gains.