Interactive weight assessment in multiple attribute decision making

A weight assessing method is given for solving a multiple attribute decision problem involving one decision maker. The method provides significant freedom to the decision maker who is asked only to specify certain groups of attributes and the corresponding joint weights. The method then provides a sophisticated interaction between various levels of the attributes involved. Furthermore, if the decision maker wishes to give additional information of the above-mentioned kind, he establishes an interaction on the level of the solution process. This can compensate for the inherent limitations of any method based on scalar utility functions by allowing a certain intransitivity and incomparability of preferences, which are natural in multiple attribute situations.     

考虑决策者风险偏好的区间直觉模糊多属性群决策方法

提出了一种考虑决策者风险偏好且属性权重信息不完全的区间直觉模糊数多属性群决策方法。同时考虑相似度和接近度,确定每一属性的决策者权重。为了考虑决策者风险偏好对决策结果的影响和避免区间直觉模糊矩阵的渐进性,引入了决策者风险偏好系数,将集结后的综合决策矩阵转换成区间数矩阵。然后,为了客观地求出属性权重信息不完全环境下属性的权重,构建了基于区间直觉模糊交叉熵的属性权重目标规划模型,该模型不仅考虑了评价值的偏差,也强调了评价值自身的可信度。最后,通过研发项目选择问题的实例分析说明了所提方法的合理性和优越性。     

On the convergence of multiattribute weighting methods

The convergent validity of five multiattribute weighting methods is studied in an Internet experiment. This is the first experiment where the subjects created the alternatives and attributes themselves. Each subject used five methods to assess attribute weights – one version of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), direct point allocation, simple multiattribute rating technique (SMART), swing weighting, and tradeoff weighting. They can all be used following the principles of multiattribute value theory. Furthermore, SMART, swing, and AHP ask the decision makers to give directly the numerical estimates of weight ratios although the elicitation questions are different. In earlier studies these methods have yielded different weights. Our results suggest that the resulting weights are different because the methods explicitly or implicitly lead the decision makers to choose their responses from a limited set of numbers. The other consequences from this are that the spread of weights and the inconsistency between the preference statements depend on the number of attributes that a decision maker considers simultaneously.     

区间直觉模糊集的模糊熵群决策方法

针对专家权重未知、专家判断信息以区间直觉模糊集给出的多属性群决策问题,提出了一种新的模糊熵决策方法。通过定义区间直觉模糊集的模糊熵判断专家信息的模糊程度,进而确定每位专家的权重;然后计算备选方案距理想方案和负理想方案的模糊交叉熵距离,得到每个专家对方案的排序;再分别利用加权算术算子和加权几何算子集结专家的排序结果,得到专家群体对方案的排序。实例分析验证了方法的有效性。     

An integrated model-based interactive approach to FMAGDM with incomplete preference information

Incomplete fuzzy preference relations, incomplete multiplicative preference relations, and incomplete linguistic preference relations are very useful to express decision makers’ incomplete preferences over attributes or alternatives in the process of decision making under fuzzy environments. The aim of this paper is to investigate fuzzy multiple attribute group decision making problems where the attribute values are represented in intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and the information on attribute weights is provided by decision makers by means of one or some of the different preference structures, including weak ranking, strict ranking, difference ranking, multiple ranking, interval numbers, incomplete fuzzy preference relations, incomplete multiplicative preference relations, and incomplete linguistic preference relations. We transform all individual intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices into the interval decision matrices and construct their expected decision matrices, and then aggregate all these expected decision matrices into a collective one. We establish an integrated model by unifying the collective decision matrix and all the given different structures of incomplete weight preference information, and develop an integrated model-based approach to interacting with the decision makers so as to adjust all the inconsistent incomplete fuzzy preference relations, inconsistent incomplete linguistic preference relations and inconsistent incomplete multiplicative preference relations into the ones with acceptable consistency. The developed approach can derive the attribute weights and the ranking of the alternatives directly from the integrated model, and thus it has the following prominent characteristics: (1) it does not need to construct the complete fuzzy preference relations, complete linguistic preference relations and complete multiplicative preference relations from the incomplete fuzzy preference relations, incomplete linguistic preference relations and incomplete multiplicative preference relations, respectively; (2) it does not need to unify the different structures of incomplete preferences, and thus can simplify the calculation and avoid distorting the given preference information; and (3) it can sufficiently reflect and adjust the subjective desirability of decision makers in the process of interaction. A practical example is also provided to illustrate the developed approach.     

Fuzzy random regression based multi-attribute evaluation and its application to oil palm fruit grading

Multi-attribute decision-making is usually concerned with weighting alternatives, thereby requiring weight information for decision attributes from a decision maker. However, the assignment of an attribute’s weight is sometimes difficult, and may vary from one decision maker to another. Additionally, imprecision and vagueness may affect each judgment in the decision-making process. That is, in a real application, various statistical data may be imprecise or linguistically as well as numerically vague. Given this coexistence of random and fuzzy information, the data cannot be adequately treated by simply using the formalism of random variables. To address this problem, fuzzy random variables are introduced as an integral component of regression models. Thus, in this paper, we proposed a fuzzy random multi-attribute evaluation model with confidence intervals using expectations and variances of fuzzy random variables. The proposed model is applied to oil palm fruit grading, as the quality inspection process for fruits requires a method to ensure product quality. We include simulation results and highlight the advantage of the proposed method in handling the existence of fuzzy random information.     

直觉模糊熵与加权决策算法

直觉模糊熵是直觉模糊集理论中的一个重要概念,反映了直觉模糊集的模糊程度和不确定程度.首先给出一种新的直觉模糊熵,并运用到多属性直觉模糊决策问题中.决策时根据直觉模糊熵计算属性权重,再综合决策者的偏好对各属性权重进行修正,然后使用直觉模糊集结算子和得分函数对方案进行排序,从而获得最优方案.     

A new multiple attribute group decision making method in intuitionistic fuzzy setting

The multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problem with intuitionistic fuzzy information investigated in this paper is very useful for solving complicated decision problems under uncertain circumstances. Since experts have their own characteristics, they are familiar with some of the attributes, but not others, the weights of the decision makers to different attributes should be different. We derive the weights of the decision makers by aggregating the individual intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices into a collective intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix. The expert has a big weight if his evaluation value is close to the mean value and has a small weight if his evaluation value is far from the mean value. For the incomplete attribute weight information, we establish some optimization models to determine the attribute weights. Furthermore, we develop several algorithms for ranking alternatives under different situations, and then extend the developed models and algorithms to the MAGDM problem with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information. Numerical results finally illustrate the practicality and efficiency of our new algorithms.     

混合多属性决策问题中的权重研究

针对属性值以精确数、区间数、直觉梯形模糊数给出的混合多属性决策问题,提出一种基于属性的可靠性、属性对决策的影响度和决策者对属性的重视程度这三个维度给权重赋值的方法。首先对属性的可靠性进行定义,并计算出属性的可靠性;接着根据属性内部差异最大化求出属性对决策的影响度;随后利用直觉梯形模糊数之间的距离求出决策者对属性的重视程度,并用投影模型将这三个维度进行集成,得到最终的权重值。该方法能够使权重的获取更加全面,最后利用算例证明了本文方法的可行性。     

基于前景理论和熵权法的交叉效率集结方法

传统的交叉效率集结过程通常采用算术平均方法,不仅会低估自评的重要性,而且未考虑决策者的风险偏好。针对上述问题,提出一种基于前景理论和熵权法的交叉效率集结方法。首先,求解交叉效率矩阵,运用熵权法确定他评过程中评价单元的指标权重。然后,引入前景理论以考虑决策者在交叉效率集结过程中的风险偏好,利用TOPSIS方法识别正负参考点,进而构造总体效用函数,得到前景交叉效率矩阵。随后,构建最大化前景价值模型,求解集结权重。该方法既考虑到交叉效率集结的相对重要性权重,又将决策者的风险偏好纳入到效率评价中,从而实现决策单元的全排序。最后,结合实例验证方法的有效性。     

Utility function assessment on a micro-computer: An interactive procedure

The procedure UFAP is presented which allows a decision maker to interactively assess his von Neumann/Morgenstern single attribute utility function. UFAP puts special emphasis on potential biases in the assessment process. In the first part of the procedure three different assessment methods are used to derive ranges for the utility function. Using different methods enables us to point out a possible bias in the elicitation process. In the second part a consistent class of utility functions is derived based on the ranges assessed in the first part. In case inconsistencies between methods arise the decision maker has to reconsider selected preference statements previously given.     

基于GMCR-NPAWLAK混合模型的冲突分析研究

冲突分析图模型中,决策者的态度只有肯定和否定两种,实际问题中往往不止两种;新PAWLAK冲突模型(NPAWLAK模型)将冲突系统中决策者的三种态度扩展到决策争端的三种程度,符合实际情况,因而研究冲突系统中决策者的偏好排序和全局可行方案对决策者的策略选择具有重要意义。本文在NPAWLAK模型的基础上,引入冲突分析图模型理论(GMCR),提出GMCR-NPAWLAK冲突分析混合模型。该混合模型首先拓展和改进的策略优先排序法,实现了冲突系统中各决策者的客观偏好排序;同时,模型给出了全局可行方案的算法,该算法依据决策者的偏好排序分析结果找出系统的全局可行方案。最后,本文以某企业劳资关系的NPAWLAK冲突为例,对冲突系统进行建模和偏好分析,得到了冲突各方的偏好序列和全局可行方案,同时验证了混合模型的有效性。     

有限理性条件下考虑决策者动态期望的多属性决策方法

有限理性条件下针对带有决策者期望的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于累积前景理论的决策分析方法。在本文中,首先考虑了决策者的有限理性的心理行为特征,以决策者在不同时期对各属性的特定期望作为参照点,然后将具有正态分布信息形式的决策矩阵转化为相对于各参照点的益损决策矩阵,在此基础上,考虑决策者对待收益和损失的不同理性态度,依据累积前景理论计算各时期中每个方案的前景值,并计算关于整个时期的综合前景值,然后依据综合前景值的大小对所有方案进行排序。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于UGC大数据挖掘的大群体两阶段风险性应急决策方法

针对在重大突发事件应急决策大数据环境下决策者偏好的不确定性及偏离群体一致性导致的风险,提出一种基于UGC大数据挖掘的大群体两阶段风险性应急决策方法。首先,通过数据挖掘和自然语言处理方法从UGC中获取公众对事件的偏好信息并构建应急决策属性体系,利用TF-IDF方法结合专家评估信息确定属性权重;其次,建立一个意见开放式的两阶段决策流程,提出依据决策者意见的可靠度和准确度量化决策风险,利用聚类方法得到相应的成员权重,并使用TOPSIS法对决策方案进行排序。最后通过天津港“8·12”重大爆炸事故的案例分析和对比验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性。     

Interactive group decision-making procedure using weak strength of preference

In the paper, we present an interactive decision procedure for aggregating group members’ preferences which are specified in incomplete ways. A group consensus under incomplete information is not usually reached at a single step since less-specific preferences on attribute weights and performance scores make a clear selection of best alternative more difficult. To circumvent these difficulties, a measure, indicating the strength of preference between alternatives, is derived to help each of decision makers change his/her preference structure. To make preference changes based on the measure effective, we present a solution method to convert an intractable nonlinear programme into a linear one.     

Enabling e-transactions with multi-attribute preference models

This paper describes potential applications of multi-attribute preference models (MAPM) in e-commerce and offers some guidelines for their implementation. MAPM are methodologies for modeling complex preferences that depend on more than one attribute or criterion, and include multi-attribute utility theory, conjoint analysis, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. There are numerous examples of applications in e-commerce that would benefit from the acquisition of information regarding the preferences of a consumer, a customer, an advice seeker, or a decision maker. Here, the focus is on applications of MAPM models in B2C and B2B websites, where preferences of consumers are assessed for the purpose of identifying products or services that closely match their needs.     

考虑决策者给出部分属性期望的风险型多属性决策方法

针对决策者给出部分属性期望的风险型多属性决策问题,提出了一种决策分析方法。在该方法中,首先,依据决策者在各自然状态下给出的属性期望信息,将原始决策问题转化为没有属性期望和具有属性期望的两个独立的风险型多属性决策问题;然后,针对没有属性期望的风险型多属性决策问题,依据期望效用理论,计算各属性下属性值所对应的效用值,进而得到每个方案的综合效用值;进一步地,针对具有属性期望的风险型多属性决策问题,依据累积前景理论,将决策者给出的属性期望视为属性的参照点,进而计算各属性值的前景价值及决策权重函数值并计算每个方案的综合累积前景值;在此基础上,计算得到每个方案的总体效用值,并依据总体效用值的大小对所有方案进行排序。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

一种考虑决策者风险偏好的区间数多属性决策方法

针对属性值以区间数形式给出的多属性决策问题,提出了一种决策分析方法。在本文中,首先描述了属性值为区间数形式的多属性决策问题;然后通过引入决策者的风险偏好因子将区间数决策信息映射为实数值决策信息,并依据属性值与属性均值绝对偏差的大小确定了属性的权重,在此基础上依据所得权重给出了基于加权和法的方案排序方法,通过对风险偏好因子的不同取值还可进行方案排序的灵敏度分析。最后,通过一个算例说明了本文给出方法的可行性和有效性。     

NAUTILUS method: An interactive technique in multiobjective optimization based on the nadir point

Most interactive methods developed for solving multiobjective optimization problems sequentially generate Pareto optimal or nondominated vectors and the decision maker must always allow impairment in at least one objective function to get a new solution. The NAUTILUS method proposed is based on the assumptions that past experiences affect decision makers’ hopes and that people do not react symmetrically to gains and losses. Therefore, some decision makers may prefer to start from the worst possible objective values and to improve every objective step by step according to their preferences. In NAUTILUS, starting from the nadir point, a solution is obtained at each iteration which dominates the previous one. Although only the last solution will be Pareto optimal, the decision maker never looses sight of the Pareto optimal set, and the search is oriented so that (s)he progressively focusses on the preferred part of the Pareto optimal set. Each new solution is obtained by minimizing an achievement scalarizing function including preferences about desired improvements in objective function values. NAUTILUS is specially suitable for avoiding undesired anchoring effects, for example in negotiation support problems, or just as a means of finding an initial Pareto optimal solution for any interactive procedure. An illustrative example demonstrates how this new method iterates.     

On the application of TRIMAP to problems with multiple decision makers

In this paper the potentialities of TRIMAP to provide decision support in multiobjective problems with multiple decision makers are exploited. TRIMAP is an interactive three-objective linear programming package which enables a progressive and selective learning of the nondominated solution set. The aim is to aid the opposing parties in exploring their own preferences and to explore the dynamic nature of the negotiation process.