不完全信息群体多属性决策的一种交互式方法

通过方案之间的两两比较,确定方案间的偏爱强度区间,借助于一致性检验和净偏爱强度,构造了一种交互式的群体多属性决策方法.该决策方法在经济规划、工业生产、交通运输、军事决策等诸多社会实际问题中均可有广泛的应用.     

我国交通运输企业经营效率测度与提升

为测度交通运输业经营效率,并挖掘出有针对性的效率提升措施,采用Super-SBM模型考察了交通运输行业上市公司经营效率.实证结果表明,2009-2013年我国交通运输企业的经营效率呈下降趋势.我国交通运输企业经营效率值差异较大,按经营效率和经营效率增长率分为低效率负增长、低效率高增长、高效率负增长和高效率高增长组.人工成本是影响交通运输企业经营效率的重要原因,因此,交通运输企业须组织变革,降低人工成本,提高经营效率.交通运输业行业对固定资产投入的收益需要一定的周期,因此可以建立全国统一的交通运输系统,提高资本利用率等方式来提高交通运输业整体经营效率.     

基于信息熵的西部区域交通运输结构分析及其灰色预测

随着新型城镇化的建设,西部区域综合交通运输网络有了很大的改善,对其交通运输结构的发展程度进行研究已显得尤为重要.运用信息熵理论和灰色预测模型,对西部区域交通运输结构的演变趋势进行分析与预测,并以甘肃省为例进行实证分析.结果表明:由于近几年公路运输的快速发展,甘肃省运输结构的信息熵呈逐年下降趋势,各运输方式运量发展不均衡;对比GM(1,1)模型与灰色马尔科夫模型可得,后者更适用于西部区域交通运输结构的演变预测.研究结果可为西部区域交通运输结构的完善提供相应的参考.     

交通运输系统协调发展理论与模型研究

提出了交通运输系统协调度的评价分析模型.从系统论的观点出发,提出了交通运输系统协调理论的概念,探讨了交通运输系统随时间而不断演化变迁的规律,给出了交通运输系统协调发展基本步骤;并根据协调学原理,讨论了交通运输系统的协调性问题,提出了系统协调发展模型,对交通运输子系统内部及子系统之间及系统整体的协调发展问题进行了研究,探讨了交通运输可持续发展的系统协调管理过程,为进一步研究交通运输系统的可持续发展奠定了基础.     

有向图上高维时间序列模型及其在交通网络中的应用

本文研究了城市道路车辆的平均行驶速度在时间以及空间上的变化规律.利用道路交通的网络结构特征,提出了有向图上的高维时间序列模型.通过引入l1-惩罚项,本文建立了正则化最小二乘的参数估计方法,并对此过程中调节参数的选择方式进行了研讨.进一步,本文将所提出的方法应用于成都市道路网络的城市链路速度的实例,并以成都市中心城区和偏远郊区为例,揭示了其交通运输效率在时间以及空间上的变化规律.该项研究可为疏导交通堵塞以及缓解交通压力提供有效的统计建议.     

军事行动避空侦察的时机和路线选择的评述

建模竞赛D题"军事行动避空侦察的时机和路线选择"来源于国家反卫星侦察的军事背景,其核心是要找出卫星的运行规律并建立相关预测模型,体现了全国研究生数学建模竞赛的特色.阐述了命题背景,分析了本赛题的建模及求解思路.通过赛题的研究,使得研究生们更加关心国防建设,引导学生把数学建模应用到军事领域建模中来,解决实际问题.     

交通运输设备制造业能源消耗效率的投入产出分析

基于投入产出模型来研究中国交通运输设备制造业的能源消耗效率.首先构造了一个引入能源消耗的投入产出模型.然后利用该投入产出模型对中国交通运输设备制造业的能源消耗效率进行了实证分析,结果表明:1995~2002年间中国交通运输设备制造业的能源直接消耗效率不断提高;1997年比1992年的能源完全消耗效率也明显提高.为进一步提高我国交通运输设备制造业的能源消耗效率,政策的重点应放在提高交通运输设备制造业的间接消耗效率和提高所有产业能源的直接消耗效率.     

军事物流网络的性能指标体系研究

军事物流系统是建设现代化后勤的重要途径,而军事物流网络是军事物流系统运行的基础.针对军事物流网络的特殊性,结合现有的民用物流网络方面的研究成果,在分析军事物流网络性能指标选取原则的基础上,构建了军事物流网络的性能指标体系,并利用层次分析法建立了对军事物流网络的评价方法.     

群体决策随机偏爱数映射的若干性质

1引言近年来,群体决策在社会选择、福利、经济和军事等领域得到广泛应用,从而其理论研究越来越被人们所重视.20世纪中叶,K.J,Arrow提出了偏爱公理系和不可能性定理,并     

军事定向越野路径优化问题建模及混合蚁群算法求解

军事定向越野运动中存在点位多、分布散、时间紧、得分要求高等条件,为在规定时间内找到一条得分高的行进线路,找到衡量和分析运动成绩好坏的标准,文中对军事定向越野中的路径优化问题进行了深入分析,建立了混合整数规划模型,设计了一种混合蚁群算法。算法中,首先由改进蚁群算法找到初始解,然后再利用选择、交叉和变异算子进行解的优化,通过仿真实验和算法对比验证了混合蚁群算法的可行性和优越性。     

Optimal tactics for close support operations: Part VI,summary of numerical results

A new generation of C³ (command, control, and communication) models for military cybernetics has been developed in recent papers. Recursive equations for the solution of the C³-problem have been derived for an amphibious campaign with linear time-varying dynamics. Air and ground commanders are assumed to have different modes of intelligence and communications. Numerical results are summarized, and the relative importance of intelligence and communications is discussed.     

Concealment measurement and flow distribution of military supply transportation: A double-entropy model

To address the issues of military supply distribution and transportation under the restrictions of concealment during war preparation and warfare periods, this study proposes a double-entropy model to measure the degree of the comprehensive concealment of military supply transportation from the perspectives of transportation and detection. With respect to the real road conditions, we further develop this double-entropy model with consideration of the width and length of roads and introduction of the limitations of average transportation. The reasonability of this model and its related definitions are then demonstrated by theoretical analysis and mathematical proof. Subsequently, three distinctive properties of military supply transportation via a road or a road network, namely unordering, scalability, and directionality, are investigated. Based on the double-entropy model and the above properties, a flow distribution model of military supply is designed, which addresses a vital issue in the event of a military confrontation or regional war. Finally, we provide an example that calculates an optimal flow distribution schedule to carry out a regional military drill in the Jiangsu Province of China to demonstrate the proposed concepts and approaches.     

应急物资联合配送决策研究

救援物资的高效投放是应急物流的关键活动之一。考虑到灾后救援车辆短缺,分配时受灾群众产生非理性心理,以及灾后道路状况对军、地救灾车辆速度产生影响等因素,本文从军民融合的角度出发,根据军地运输车辆特点,设计科学合理的车辆分配方案与运输路线。论文研究构建了基于车辆分配公平性和应急配送及时性的“分配-运输”集成决策模型,设计改进后的NSGA-Ⅱ算法进行求解,最后通过算例验证本算法的有效性和合理性,并通过调节军民运输车辆数,找到应急救援过程中的最佳军、地车辆比例,从而为灾后各灾备中心的车辆调度决策提供参考。     

An Empirical Evaluation of Investigating Transportation Mode Attributes for Commodities

A number of transportation demand models have been formulated using the abstract mode concept. Unfortunately, most of these models use a priori economic theory to derive the variables used in the analysis. This study describes an empirical approach for the specification of mode attributes used by purchasers of transportation modes for the movement of commodities. Results reported from a study conducted on the Montreal-Toronto corridor in Canada suggest that a number of important variables have been neglected in models of carrier selection for freight.     

Integrated Production and Distribution Planning for Södra Cell AB

In this paper we consider integrated planning of transportation of raw material, production and distribution of products of the supply chain at Södra Cell AB, a major European pulp mill company. The strategic planning period is one year. Decisions included in the planning are transportation of raw materials from harvest areas to pulp mills, production mix and contents at pulp mills, distribution of pulp products from mills to customer via terminals or directly and selection of potential orders and their levels at customers. Distribution is carried out by three different transportation modes; vessels, trains and trucks. We propose a mathematical model for the entire supply chain which includes a large number of continuous variables and a set of binary variables to reflect decisions about product mix and order selection at customers. Five different alternatives regarding production mix in a case study carried out at Södra Cell are analyzed and evaluated. Each alternative describes which products will be produced at which pulp mills.     

基于CVaR的危险品公铁联运路径选择研究

公铁联运在危险品的多式联运中扮演着重要角色,为了降低危险品公铁联运风险,提高危险品公铁联运的安全性,危险品公铁联运的路径选择至关重要。本文运用条件风险价值(CVaR)理论,在对危险品公铁联运网络进行变形的基础上构建了考虑决策者风险规避程度的危险品公铁联运路径选择模型,设计了求解该模型的算法,并进行了算例分析。研究结果表明:通过该模型及其算法,可根据决策者对所需运输的危险品的运输风险规避程度,在危险品公铁联运网络中快速地选出使危险品公铁联运风险最小的运输路径和运输方式;决策者的风险规避程度会对危险品公铁联运过程中的运输路径和运输方式的选择产生重要影响。     

The dynamic frequency assignment problem

In this paper, we consider a frequency assignment problem occurring in a military context. The main originality of the problem pertains to its dynamic dimension: new communications requiring frequency assignments need to be established throughout a battlefield deployment. The problem resolution framework decomposes into three phases: assignment of an initial kernel of communications, dynamic assignment of new communication links and a repair process when no assignment is possible. Different solution methods are proposed and extensive computational experiments are carried out on realistic instances.     

An approach for analysing transportation costs and a case study

One of the important parameters in the determination of optimal transportation system is economy. Therefore, a realistic method based on the technical, economical and operational parameters of various transportation modes, namely, road, railway, and sea routes is required in the analysis of costs. This method will take into consideration the probable price escalations during the lifetime of a certain transportation system. The cost of a unit of cargo or passenger per route length should be considered since it is an indicator of economics. In this paper, an approach for transportation cost analysis based on the economic analysis of the alternative modes of cargo or passenger transportation, is presented.     

The next generation of UK military satellite communication systems

UK military satellite communications systems are currently provided by the Skynet programme. The current generation is collectively known as Skynet 4, and is due to be replaced from 2003 by the next generation. CDA has been asked to conduct an operational research study to review the potential communications requirements of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in the period 2003–2013, and assess what contribution could be made to them by the proposed future military satellite communications system. This paper discusses some of the political and technical issues surrounding the work carried out. Technically, the study looked at the dynamic loading of five different satellite options in three scenarios set in 2010. Each combination of scenario and satellite was modelled, and the results produced in terms of the chosen measures of effectiveness. The sensitivity of these results to various assumptions was tested to determine the robustness of the results. The scenarios included land, air and maritime operations. In an area where little or no analysis had previously been attempted (at least in the military context) in the UK, this ‘intervention’ succeeded in clarifying the main issues, and setting a course for future work.     

具有两种运输方式选择的物流排序问题

本文研究了单机环境下,有两种运输方式可供选择的集成生产和运输的排序问题。有多个工件需要在一台机器上进行加工,工件生产完后需要分批运到客户处。有两种运输方式,普通运输和特快运输可供选择。制造商需要安排工件的加工顺序,选择合适的运输方式和出发时间,以极小化相应的时间目标与运输费用的加权和。研究了排序理论中主要的两个目标函数,分析了问题的复杂性,对于这些问题给出了它们的最优算法。