具有饱和治疗的禽流感动力学模型的研究

提出了一类带有治疗的禽流感动力学模型,用来分析禽流感从禽类向人类传播的过程.由于治疗禽流感的药物十分有限,提出一个带有饱和治疗的模型.通过讨论得知当禽流感疫情已经发生时,通过控制染病的禽类就可抑制禽流感在人类的传播.     

Avian-human influenza epidemic model with diffusion

A diffusive epidemic model is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among birds and humans. The behavior of positive solutions to a reaction-diffusion system with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. Sufficient conditions for the local and global asymptotical stability are given by spectral analysis and by using Lyapunov functional. Our result shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, if the contact rate for the susceptible birds and the contact rate for the susceptible humans are small. It suggests that the best policy to prevent the occurrence of a pandemic is not only to exterminate the infected birds with avian influenza but also to reduce the contact rate for susceptible humans with the individuals infected with mutant avian influenza. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the main results.     

周期演化域上一个禽流感模型的动力学分析

本文研究了周期演化区域上一个禽流感模型.首先假设区域的增长为各向同性,将模型转换为固定区域上的反应扩散问题.然后利用相关的特征值问题和上下解方法得出模型解的渐近性态.研究结果表明,周期性区域的演化对疾病的传播与抑制取决于区域的周期演化速率ρ(t)的积分平均值ρ-2=1/T∫0T1/ρ2(t)dt.若ρ-2>1,则周期性区域的演化可抑制疾病的传播;若ρ-2<1,则周期性区域的演化可加速疾病的传播;若ρ-2=1,则周期性区域的演化对疾病的传播没有影响.     

Modeling the spread of bird flu and predicting outbreak diversity

Avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, is an epidemic caused by H5N1 virus that primarily affects birds like chickens, wild water birds, etc. On rare occasions, these can infect other species including pigs and humans. In the span of less than a year, the lethal strain of bird flu is spreading very fast across the globe mainly in South East Asia, parts of Central Asia, Africa and Europe. In order to study the patterns of spread of epidemic, we made an investigation of outbreaks of the epidemic in one week, that is from February 13–18, 2006, when the deadly virus surfaced in India. We have designed a statistical transmission model of bird flu taking into account the factors that affect the epidemic transmission such as source of infection, social and natural factors and various control measures are suggested. For modeling the general intensity coefficient f(r), we have implemented the recent ideas given in the article Fitting the Bill, Nature [R. Howlett, Fitting the bill, Nature 439 (2006) 402], which describes the geographical spread of epidemics due to transportation of poultry products. Our aim is to study the spread of avian influenza, both in time and space, to gain a better understanding of transmission mechanism. Our model yields satisfactory results as evidenced by the simulations and may be used for the prediction of future situations of epidemic for longer periods. We utilize real data at these various scales and our model allows one to generalize our predictions and make better suggestions for the control of this epidemic.     

一类具有变种群总数的SEIS传染病模型的控制设计

讨论一类种群总数变化的传染病模型的控制问题.在SEIS模型里,通过设计反馈控制律来改变基本再生数.在疾病肆虐爆发期,即基本再生数R0＞1时,合理利用控制手段使得R0＜1,从而达到遏制或减缓疾病蔓延的目的.这里采取了两种控制策略,一种是既控制传播率又控制感染率的综合控制策略,一种是仅控制感染率来达到控制目的.     

EXISTENCE PROBLEMS OF ADDITIVE SELECTION MAPS FOR ANOTHER TYPE SUBADDITIVE SET-VALUED MAP

In this paper,we consider the following subadditive set-valued map F:X → P 0 (Y):F r ∑ i=1 x i + s ∑ j=1 x r+ j rF r ∑ i=1 x i r + sF s ∑ j=1 x r+ j s, x i ∈ X,i=1,2,,r + s,where r and s are two natural numbers.And we discuss the existence and unique problem of additive selection maps for the above set-valued map.     

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza

The basic reproduction number and the point of endemic equilibrium are two very important factors in any deterministic compartmental epidemic model as the basic reproduction number and the point of endemic equilibrium represent the nature of disease transmission and disease prevalence respectively. In this article the sensitivity analysis based on mathematical as well as statistical techniques has been performed to determine the importance of the epidemic model parameters. It is observed that 6 out of the 11 input parameters play a prominent role in determining the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. It is shown that the basic reproduction number is the most sensitive to the transmission rate of disease. It is also shown that control of transmission rate and recovery rate of the clinically ill are crucial to stop the spreading of influenza epidemics.     

A fractional order epidemic model and simulation for avian influenza dynamics

We present a nonlinear fractional order epidemic model to investigate the spreading dynamical behavior of the avian influenza. The population of the model contains susceptible individuals, asymptomatic but infective latent individuals, and infective individuals. We first establish the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and positive invariance of the solution, then we study the reproduction number of the model and the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium. We observe that the reproduction number varies with the order of the fractional derivative ν. In terms of epidemics, this suggests that varying ν induces a change in the avian's epidemic status. Furthermore, we derive the sufficient conditions for the existence and the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we carry out some numerical simulations to validate the analytical results. We find from simulations that the solution of the fractional order model tends to a stationary state over a longer period of time with decreasing the value of the fractional derivative, and the size of epidemic decreases with decreasing ν.     

Epidemic spreading with time delay on complex networks

In this paper, we propose a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks, small-world (WS) networks and scale-free (SF) networks, to study the epidemic spreading behavior with time delay which is added into the infected phase. Considering the uniform delay, the basic reproduction number R ₀ on WS networks and \(\bar R_0\) on SF networks are obtained respectively. On WS networks, if R ₀ ≤ 1, there is a disease-free equilibrium and it is locally asymptotically stable; if R ₀ > 1, there is an epidemic equilibrium and it is locally asymptotically stable. On SF networks, if \(\bar R_0 \leqslant 1\), there is a disease-free equilibrium; if \(\bar R_0 > 1\), there is an epidemic equilibrium. Finally, we carry out simulations to verify the conclusions and analyze the effect of the time delay τ, the effective rate λ, average connectivity 〈k〉 and the minimum connectivity m on the epidemic spreading.     

关于线性偏微分方程的Cauchy问题的唯一性

<正> Cauchy问题的唯一性是偏微分方程的基本问题之一.经典的Cauchy-Kowalewski定理断言,解析方程或方程组的解析解是唯一的.1901年,Holmgren证明了,线性的解析方程或方程组的光滑解的唯一性.在取消关于系数的解析性的假设这个方向上的第一个结果是由Carleman在1939年给出的,他证明了两个自变量的相应结果,其中假设方程的主部的系数是实的,以及特征根是单重的,因而特征根的虚部如果不恒为零则总不为零.     

Multistrain edge‐based compartmental model on networks

Multistrain diseases, which are infected through individual contacts, pose severe public health threat nowadays. In this paper, we build competitive and mutative two‐strain edge‐based compartmental models using probability generation function (PGF) and pair approximation (PA). Both of them are ordinary differential equations. Their basic reproduction numbers and final size formulas are explicitly derived. We show that the formula gives a unique positive final epidemic size when the reproduction number is larger than unity. We further consider competitive and mutative multistrain diseases spreading models and compute their basic reproduction numbers. We perform numerical simulations that show some dynamical properties of the competitive and mutative two‐strain models.     

Spreading and vanishing in a West Nile virus model with expanding fronts

We study a simplified version of a West Nile virus(WNv) model discussed by Lewis et al.(2006),which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number R_0 for the non-spatial epidemic model is defined and a threshold parameter R_0~D for the corresponding problem with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced. We consider a free boundary problem with a coupled system, which describes the diffusion of birds by a PDE and the movement of mosquitoes by an ODE. The risk index R_0~F(t) associated with the disease in spatial setting is represented. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to eradicate or to spread are given. The asymptotic behavior of the solution to the system when the spreading occurs is considered. It is shown that the initial number of infected populations, the diffusion rate of birds and the length of initial habitat exhibit important impacts on the vanishing or spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.     

概周期系数二维线性方程组特征数的估计

常系数线性系(yx)'=(cdab)(yx)具有指数型二分性(特征根一正一负)的充要条件是ad-bc<0.本文说明概周期线性系(yx)'=(a(t)d(t)a(t)b(t))(yx)当a(t)d(t)-b(t)c(t)<0时,一般也有指数型二分性.同时给出特征数较准确的估计.     

具有标准发生率和因病死亡率的离散SIS传染病模型的全局稳定性分析

主要研究了具有标准发生率和因病死亡率的离散SIS传染病模型的动力学性质,利用构造Lyapunov函数,得到模型无病平衡点和地方性平衡点的全局稳定性,即无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的当且仅当基本再生数R_0≤1,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的当且仅当R_0>1.     

具有非线性梯度吸收项的快速扩散方程的有限熄灭

本文研究快速扩散方程ut-Δum +｜ u｜p =0的柯西问题 ,其中m ,p∈ ( 0 ,1) .对于 0

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方程w"-w+f(t,w)=O的Dirichlet边值问题的正解存在性与多解性

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