基于Multi-Logit模型的多机场系统航线补贴研究

随着我国民航业快速发展,机场密度不断提高,在一定地域范围内存在多个机场的现象.然而多机场系统内机场间竞争激烈,其中航线补贴已经成为国内大部分机场激励航空公司增加运力、开拓更多航线的重要手段.对于机场来说,如何科学的补贴很值得研究.从乘客出行选择角度着眼,利用Multinomial Logit模型考察了航线补贴对机场及航空公司的市场份额、机场自身利润及社会总收益的影响,从而给出补贴建议.研究表明:1)多机场系统内,一家航空公司的航线补贴增加时,这家航空公司及所在机场的市场份额增加,其余机场及航空公司市场份额均有所下降.2)多机场系统内大型机场补贴新航班航线时,对市场占有率高的航空公司补贴增加,航空公司市场份额、机场在这条航线上总利润以及社会总收益都随之增加.3)多机场系统内两家邻近中小机场,根据两家机场单位航线补贴方案不同,航空公司市场份额、机场在这条航线上总利润以及社会总收益也相应不同.     

机场安全运行监管机制的动态博弈分析

监管机制是否行之有效是决定机场能否长期安全运行的关键所在.针对机场安全运行监管现状,进一步挖掘机场与政府之间内在博弈机理,在引入机场按章运行与违章运行下发生不安全事件概率因子的基础上,构建了机场与政府之间的安全运行动态监管博弈模型,研究了二者在机场安全运行监管过程中博弈双方的策略选择问题.通过对模型混合策略纳什均衡进行...     

机场出租车问题的数学模型

针对2019年全国大学生数学建模竞赛的C题——机场的出租车问题,首先介绍了问题的实际背景和问题的提法;然后根据实际问题分别建立了机场出租车司机的选择模型、上车点的设置模型和短途载客返回出租车的优先方案模型,并给出了模型的求解结果;最后对竞赛论文的总体情况做了点评分析.     

机场蓄车池出租车司机的选择决策研究 ——以首都机场为例

随着中国全面小康的逐步实现,乘客下飞机后乘坐出租车回市区已经成为大多数人的选择.着眼出租车送客至机场后的情景,以出租车司机的盈利最大化为目标,讨论出租车司机的两种决策选择——决策A是留在机场蓄车池等待回城区的乘客,决策B是空载回城找生意.控制时间相同的条件下,用机场接客的订单金额来估计决策A的收益,用司机单位时间内平均收益乘以经营时长来衡量决策B的收益.以北京市首都国际机场为例,从数学模型的角度为出租车司机提供决策条件,有效实现司机利润最大化.     

考虑非期望产出的我国对外开放机场生产效率评估

针对已有对机场生产效率评估中忽视非期望产出这一问题,研究构建了非期望产出模型SBM-Undesirable,选择我国对外开放机场为研究对象,对其机场生产效率进行评估,并在此基础上对对外开放机场投入产出要素进行定量调整.研究结果表明:在机场生产运营过程中存在非期望产出的情况下,采用SBM-Undesirable模型对其进行效率评价,能够避免传统DEA模型的缺陷,提高效率评价的准确性.通过模型分析发现我国62个对外开放机场中有18个机场生产效率有效,而采用传统CCR模型进行机场生产效率评估时,只有12个机场生产效率有效,说明非期望产出对外开放机场生产效率有显著的影响;我国对外开放机场的生产效率有显著的区域特征,我国区域对外开放机场生产效率得分排序为华中、西南、西北、华南、华东、华北、东北;通过对我国生产效率无效的对外开放机场分析,发现各个对外开放机场普遍存在投入冗余、效益产出不足和非期望产出过多的情况,优化投入产出配置能力、减少机场投诉数量等非期望产出和增加机场有效产出是改善机场生产效率的现实途径.     

考虑非期望产出的我国对外开放机场生产效率评估北大核心

针对已有对机场生产效率评估中忽视非期望产出这一问题,研究构建了非期望产出模型SBM-Undesirable,选择我国对外开放机场为研究对象,对其机场生产效率进行评估,并在此基础上对对外开放机场投入产出要素进行定量调整.研究结果表明:在机场生产运营过程中存在非期望产出的情况下,采用SBM-Undesirable模型对其进行效率评价,能够避免传统DEA模型的缺陷,提高效率评价的准确性.通过模型分析发现我国62个对外开放机场中有18个机场生产效率有效,而采用传统CCR模型进行机场生产效率评估时,只有12个机场生产效率有效,说明非期望产出对外开放机场生产效率有显著的影响;我国对外开放机场的生产效率有显著的区域特征,我国区域对外开放机场生产效率得分排序为华中、西南、西北、华南、华东、华北、东北;通过对我国生产效率无效的对外开放机场分析,发现各个对外开放机场普遍存在投入冗余、效益产出不足和非期望产出过多的情况,优化投入产出配置能力、减少机场投诉数量等非期望产出和增加机场有效产出是改善机场生产效率的现实途径.     

B—值随机场的最大不等式及其应用

本文讨论 B—值随机场的最大不等式,推广了 Hoffmann-Jφrgensen 的结果(见〔1〕).作为一个应用,本文对 B—值随机场矩形和的最大值的矩问题进行了研究.     

基于动态网络DEA模型的机场绩效研究

在已有网络DEA的基础上加入时间维度,构建了多时段下具有串联决策单元内部结构的复杂系统动态网络DEA效率评价模型.模型与传统DEA模型相比,既克服了传统DEA无视系统内部结构的缺陷,又在传统DEA的决策空间和目标空间基础上加入了时间维度,可以考察决策单元在不同时段的效率变化,从而对解决多时段内的复杂系统效率评估问题具有更为现实的应用价值.运用模型对区域多机场系统中的机场运营效率进行了计算,结果表明:1)动态网络DEA模型综合机场多年的投入产出,引入联系变量将相邻两时段连接起来,系统全面地评价多年来机场的整体运营水平,避免了传统模型将各年度独立评价的不足.2)江苏7家机场在2006-2010年仅南京禄口机场动态效率值为1,其余机场效率值都比较低,说明这些机场5年整体运营不佳,需要进一步加强管理和改进.     

基于聚类与灰色关联分析模型的机场群协同发展评价

随着我国经济社会的发展,为了适应发展上的新要求区域协同发展成为主要趋势.交·通协同发展是区域协同发展中的先行者,机场群的建设对于区域交通协同有着重要意义.提出了机场群协同发展评价的模型,首先利用相关系数法对机场群内的机场进行模糊聚类,选择合适分类数;然后将每一个分类作为一个系统,加入对系统影响程度大的评价指标构成系统指标序列;最后基于灰色关联分析模型计算综合关联度与系统间的协同度.还以京津冀地区为例进行实例分析,评价目前机场群协同发展是否能有效疏解北京非首都职能.     

机场任务指派问题的优化方案研究

本文研究了机场任务指派问题,该问题是指将具有特殊属性的任务指派给有限数量的班次。由于机场任务和班次属性的多样性,机场任务指派问题是一个复杂的组合优化问题,属于NP-完全问题。本文以任务完成产生的效益总和最大化为目标建立数学优化模型,提出有效不等式,应用CPLEX软件对实际数据进行求解,结果表明,CPLEX可以在较短时间内对一定规模的算例求得最优解。同时对影响目标函数的四个因素:任务数量、班次数量、班次工作时长和任务属性分别进行分析,通过实际算例测试对比,得出具有指导意义的结论,即根据机场特征分别调整四个因素不仅能够提高机场资源的有效利用率,而且能够提高机场的运行效率和服务水平。     

电信技术选择管制的突变模型

"追捧效应"、"市场锁定"一直是电信产业技术选择的奇特现象,突发性的变化后是持续性的稳定,电信技术市场突发性的变革令传统经济分析难以找到解释的途径.系统理论的最新研究成果同时表明,以均衡分析研究经济是不足以反映客观现实的.电信技术的迅猛发展,动态化特征加剧,更使均衡分析没有用武之地.以系统论的观点分析电信产业技术的市场化突变是本文的主要内容.通过建构电信技术选择管制的突变模型,得出电信技术选择突变产生的系统条件.     

Mathematical programming models for revenue management under customer choice

We study a network airline revenue management problem with discrete customer choice behavior. We discuss a choice model based on the concept of preference orders, in which customers can be grouped according to a list of options in decreasing order of preference. If a customer’s preferred option is not available, the customer moves to the next choice on the list with some probability. If that option is not available, the customer moves to the third choice on the list with some probability, and so forth until either the customer has no other choice but to leave or his/her request is accepted. Using this choice model as an input, we propose some mathematical programs to determine seat allocations. We also propose a post-optimization heuristic to refine the allocation suggested by the optimization model. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our method, including comparisons with other models.     

Parameter choice methods using minimization schemes

Regularization is typically based on the choice of some parametric family of nearby solutions, and the choice of this family is a task in itself. Then, a suitable parameter must be chosen in order to find an approximation of good quality. We focus on the second task. There exist deterministic and stochastic models for describing noise and solutions in inverse problems. We will establish a unified framework for treating different settings for the analysis of inverse problems, which allows us to prove the convergence and optimality of parameter choice schemes based on minimization in a generic way. We show that the well known quasi-optimality criterion falls in this class. Furthermore we present a new parameter choice method and prove its convergence by using this newly established tool.     

Assessing the predictive effectiveness of the variety seeking and reinforcement models

Prediction of customer choice behaviour has been a big challenge for marketing researchers. They have adopted various models to represent customers purchase patterns. Some researchers considered simple zero–order models. Others proposed higher–order models to represent explicitly customers tendency to seek [variety] or [reinforcement] as they make repetitive choices. Nevertheless, the question [Which model has the highest probability of representing some future data?] still prevails. The objective of this paper is to address this question. We assess the predictive effectiveness of the well–known customer choice models. In particular, we compare the predictive ability of the [dynamic attribute satiation] (DAS) model due to McAlister (Journal of Consumer Research, 91, pp. 141–150, 1982) with that of the well–known stochastic variety seeking and reinforcement behaviour models. We found that the stochastic [beta binomial] model has the best predictive effectiveness on both simulated and real purchase data. Using simulations, we also assessed the effectiveness of the stochastic models in representing various complex choice processes generated by the DAS. The beta binomial model mimicked the DAS processes the best. In this research we also propose, for the first time, a stochastic choice rule for the DAS model.     

Foundations of the 2N-ary Choice Tree Model

We define the 2N-ary choice tree model for reaction times and choice probabilities in N-alternative preferential choice by specifying a random walk on a 2N-ary tree. It allows for calculation of expected choice response times and expected choice probabilities in closed form and accounts for several preference reversal effects that emerge from the context. Here, we focus on the expected values and on the definition of the transition probabilities that constitute the random walk.     

Airport games: The core and its center

An approach to define a rule for an airport problem is to associate to each problem a cooperative game, an airport game, and using game theory to come out with a solution. In this paper, we study the rule that is the average of all the core allocations: the core-center (González-Díaz and Sánchez-Rodríguez, 2007). The structure of the core is exploited to derive insights on the core-center. First, we provide a decomposition of the core in terms of the cores of the downstream-subtraction reduced games. Then, we analyze the structure of the faces of the core of an airport game that correspond to the no-subsidy constraints to find that the faces of the core can be seen as new airport games, the face games, and that the core can be decomposed through the no-subsidy cones (those whose bases are the cores of the no-subsidy face games). As a consequence, we provide two methods for computing the core-center of an airport problem, both with interesting economic interpretations: one expresses the core-center as a ratio of the volume of the core of an airport game for which a player is cloned over the volume of the original core, the other defines a recursive algorithm to compute the core-center through the no-subsidy cones. Finally, we prove that the core-center is not only an intuitive appealing game-theoretic solution for the airport problem but it has also a good behavior with respect to the basic properties one expects an airport rule to satisfy. We examine some differences between the core-center and, arguably, the two more popular game theoretic solutions for airport problems: the Shapley value and the nucleolus.     

Existence of solutions for systems of generalized quasi‐equilibrium problems

In this paper, first of all, we consider a generalized game in choice form with 2 constraints and its corresponding equilibrium in choice. We assert new conditions under which the equilibrium in choice exists. As a consequence, we establish the existence of the equilibrium for generalized abstract economies. Then, we apply the obtained theorems to prove the existence of solutions for systems of quasi‐equilibrium problems. We do this by considering new hypotheses for the properties of the involved correspondences. This approach leads us to results which differ a lot from the ones existing in literature.     

Reassignments of common-use check-in counters following airport incidents

The aim in this research is to develop a model that will assist in the reassignment of flights to common-use check-in counters following airport incidents. The model is formulated as a zero-one integer program. To develop a solution method that will efficiently solve the large problems that occur in the real world, we employ a decomposition technique, where a series of two relaxations of the original model are solved repeatedly. Numerical tests are performed based on a hypothetical incident that is mainly based on data from a Taiwan airport. The obtained results show that the model and the solution method could be useful for the airport authority in actual operations.