非对称信息证券交易的跨期动态博弈均衡解析

揭示了不对称信息条件下证券市场均衡的基本特征.Grossman和Stiglitz模型依据不知情交易者的弱理性,解析了证券交易的静态均衡状态.O'Hara模型增强了不知情交易者的理性,强调了市场均衡时的风险定价,但其命题的成立条件是相互矛盾的.认为不知情交易者信息收集和处理能力的提高会使决策更为理性,证券市场的均衡本质上是交易者的动态博弈均衡.依此思路,运用不完美信息的跨期动态博弈模型解析了非对称信息条件下证券交易者的精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡.结论显示出,市场失效的主要原因是交易者之间的信息分析能力不平衡,而不是信息不对称;市场流动性的决定因素不是信息不对称风险而是知情交易者与不知情交易者所研判的无风险收益率的差别.     

A best-response approach for equilibrium selection in two-player generalized Nash equilibrium problems

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a best-response approach to select an equilibrium in a two-player generalized Nash equilibrium problem. In our model we solve, at each of a finite number of time steps, two independent optimization problems. We prove that convergence of our Jacobi-type method, for the number of time steps going to infinity, implies the selection of the same equilibrium as in a recently introduced continuous equilibrium selection theory. Thus the presented approach is a different motivation for the existing equilibrium selection theory, and it can also be seen as a numerical method. We show convergence of our numerical scheme for some special cases of generalized Nash equilibrium problems with linear constraints and linear or quadratic cost functions.     

跳扩散模型下的非零和随机微分投资组合博弈

现实经济中,当股票价格受到一些重大信息影响而发生突发性的跳跃时,用跳扩散过程来描述股票价格的趋势更符合实际情况。基于这一观察,本文研究跳扩散模型下包含两个投资者的非零和投资组合博弈问题。假设金融市场中包含一种无风险资产和一种风险资产,其中风险资产的价格动态用跳扩散模型来描述。将该非零和博弈问题构造成两个效用最大化问题,每个投资者的目标是最大化终端时刻自身财富与其竞争对手财富差的均值-方差效用。运用随机控制理论,得到了均衡投资策略以及相应值函数的解析表达。最后通过数值仿真算例分析了模型相关参数变动对均衡投资策略的影响。仿真结果显示:当股价发生不连续跳跃,投资者在构造投资策略时考虑跳跃风险可以显著增加其效用水平;同时,随着博弈竞争的加剧,投资者为了在竞争中取得更好的表现,往往会采取更加激进的投资策略,增加对风险资产的投资。     

一般均衡下基于产品市场和资本市场的单名CDS定价

次贷危机呼吁新的信用衍生品定价模型, 因此为存在产品市场和资本市场的经济结构建立一般均衡的单名CDS定价模型, 使用最优化求解一般均衡下的商品价格和CDS价格. 可以发现一般均衡的CDS定价具有资本市场和产品市场的因素, 这表示CDS的价格不再是由单纯的资本市场因素决定的, 而是由无风险利率、资本产出弹性、违约率、回收率同时决定的. 通过数量约束用模拟的方式研究多个均衡的动态变化, 发现违约风险的增加使得价格剧烈波动且市场交易萎缩. 在为以中国工商银行为参考资产的CDS定价过程中, 发现各种因素在不同的时期都可能成为定价的主要影响因素. 可以发现, 次贷危机的定价体系存在着信用调整问题和定价与实体经济脱节的问题. 可以认为, 一般均衡下基于产品市场和资本市场的单名CDS定价可以囊括多个市场的交叉影响, 为衍生品定价提供一个新的方向.     

Dynamical systems and variational inequalities

The variational inequality problem has been utilized to formulate and study a plethora of competitive equilibrium problems in different disciplines, ranging from oligopolistic market equilibrium problems to traffic network equilibrium problems. In this paper we consider for a given variational inequality a naturally related ordinary differential equation. The ordinary differential equations that arise are nonstandard because of discontinuities that appear in the dynamics. These discontinuities are due to the constraints associated with the feasible region of the variational inequality problem. The goals of the paper are two-fold. The first goal is to demonstrate that although non-standard, many of the important quantitative and qualitative properties of ordinary differential equations that hold under the standard conditions, such as Lipschitz continuity type conditions, apply here as well. This is important from the point of view of modeling, since it suggests (at least under some appropriate conditions) that these ordinary differential equations may serve as dynamical models. The second goal is to prove convergence for a class of numerical schemes designed to approximate solutions to a given variational inequality. This is done by exploiting the equivalence between the stationary points of the associated ordinary differential equation and the solutions of the variational inequality problem. It can be expected that the techniques described in this paper will be useful for more elaborate dynamical models, such as stochastic models, and that the connection between such dynamical models and the solutions to the variational inequalities will provide a deeper understanding of equilibrium problems.     

竞争市场均衡问题的内点算法

本文应用最优化方法求解经济学中的经典问题-竞争市场均衡问题.本文对Ye的算法(Ye首先提出了解Fisher问题的原始-对偶路径跟踪算法)做了改进,分别给出了步长调整和迭代方向分解后的原始-对偶路径跟踪算法,并对算法做了理论证明和复杂性分析.最后分析了初始点的求法,做了初步的数值计算.计算结果表明算法能在有效时间内求得问题的解.     

完备市场下的均衡和财富优化

针对跳扩散模型中的优化与均衡问题,利用鞅方法和随机点过程理论,建立了跳扩散模型下的均衡市场,分析了市场中的财富优化问题,给出了均衡大宗商品现货价格、最优财富过程、最优投资组合及最优消费过程.     

Heston随机波动率模型下带负债的投资组合博弈

本文研究了Heston随机波动模型下两个投资人之间的随机微分投资组合博弈问题。假设金融市场上存在价格过程服从常微分方程的无风险资产和价格过程服从Heston随机波动率模型的风险资产。该博弈问题被构造成两个效用最大化问题,每个投资者的目标是最大化终止时刻个人财富与竞争对手财富差的效用。首先,我们应用动态规划原理,得出了相应值函数所满足的HJB方程。然后,得到了在幂期望效用框架下非零和博弈的均衡投资策略和值函数的显式表达。最后,借助数值模拟,分析了模型中的参数对均衡投资策略和值函数的影响,从而为资产负债管理提供一定的理论指导。     

A variational inequality formulation of equilibrium models for end-of-life products with nonlinear constraints

Variational inequality theory facilitates the formulation of equilibrium problems in economic networks. Examples of successful applications include models of supply chains, financial networks, transportation networks, and electricity networks. Previous economic network equilibrium models that were formulated as variational inequalities only included linear constraints; in this case the equivalence between equilibrium problems and variational inequality problems is achieved with a standard procedure because of the linearity of the constraints. However, in reality, often nonlinear constraints can be observed in the context of economic networks. In this paper, we first highlight with an application from the context of reverse logistics why the introduction of nonlinear constraints is beneficial. We then show mathematical conditions, including a constraint qualification and convexity of the feasible set, which allow us to characterize the economic problem by using a variational inequality formulation. Then, we provide numerical examples that highlight the applicability of the model to real-world problems. The numerical examples provide specific insights related to the role of collection targets in achieving sustainability goals.     

多层级乳品供应链网络均衡问题研究

以乳品供应链网络为研究对象,构建包含原奶供应商、乳品加工企业、乳品分销商、终端消费市场四层决策主体的乳品供应链网络均衡模型。利用均衡理论和变分不等式理论,描述每个决策者的独立行为以及决策者之间相互影响的竞争行为,采用修正投影法求出均衡解,并给出经济解释,通过数值算例验证模型的合理性和正确性。这一均衡模型有助于协调供应链中各成员之间的利益关系,提升乳品供应链整体运作效率,提高乳品行业的竞争力。     

随机交通均衡配流模型及其等价的变分不等式问题

本文讨论了交通网络系统的随机用户均衡原理的数学表述问题.在路段出行成本是流量的单调函数的较弱条件下,对具有固定需求和弹性需求的模式,首次证明了随机均衡配流模型可表示为一个变分不等式问题,同时也说明了该变分不等式问题与相应的互补问题以及一个凸规划问题之间的等价关系.     

A novel algorithm for area traffic capacity control with elastic travel demands

A non-linear area traffic control system with limited capacity is considered in this paper. Optimal signal settings and link capacity expansions can be determined while trip distribution and network flow are in equilibrium. This problem can be formulated as a non-linear mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. For the objective function a non-linear constrained optimization program for signal settings and link capacity expansion is determined. For the constraint set the elastic user equilibrium traffic assignment obeying Wardrop’s first principle can be formulated as a variational inequality. Since the constrained optimization problem is non-convex, only local optima can be obtained. In this paper, a novel algorithm using a non-smooth trust region approach is proposed. Numerical tests are performed using a real data city network and various example test networks in which the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are confirmed as compared to other well-known solution methods.     

具有随机需求的多种差异产品供应链网络均衡模型研究

针对产品的品牌和产地存在的差异性,研究了供应链网络的均衡模型,构建了具有随机需求的多种差异产品的供应链网络均衡模型.运用随机效用理论和多项式logit模型分析了需求市场上产品的随机选择问题,利用变分不等式的形式给出了制造商、零售商,需求市场以及整个供应链网络的均衡条件,并给出了经济解释.最后,通过算例验证了模型的合理性.     

房地产市场供求均衡与房地产价格研究——以北京商品房市场为例

中国房价上涨幅度较大,研究房地产供求市场及其价格,能把握房地产市场规律,促进房地产市场的平稳健康发展.研究从供求均衡理论角度分析了房地产市场的供求规律及其价格,通过建立商品房市场的供需动态均衡模型,以1990~2010年北京市商品房市场为例,对房地产市场的供求弹性、与长期均衡之间的关系及其对房地产价格的影响进行了实证研究与分析.研究表明房地产供给市场长期略具弹性,而需求市场长期弹性较大,价格对商品房市场的调节作用并不明显,实现房地产市场的供求均衡,需要政府力量的介入并对市场进行宏观调控.     

Optimal Execution in a Market with Small Investors

Abstract

The author considers the dynamic trading strategies that minimize the expected cost of trading a large block of securities over a fixed finite number of periods. In this model, the market impact function that yields the execution prices for individual trades is endogeneously determined. This analysis is novel in that it introduces small investors, who do not affect the price flow, and a noise trader as market participants other than the institutional investors into a general equilibrium model. It is found that the institutional investor takes a rather complicated strategy to make use of its private information. As a result, the price impact not only changes over time but also depends on the trade history. Although there are several studies that deal with this topic in the recent empirical literature, it has remained unnoticed in the context of the theoretical optimal execution model.     

EXISTENCE OF STRONGLY VALID TOLLS FOR MULTICLASS NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM PROBLEMS＊

In this article,we consider the multiclass network equilibrium problems.A so called strongly valid toll can support any multiclass user equilibrium flow pattern as a system minimum when the system obje...     

交通拥堵管理中可交易电子券方案的公平性分析

利用损失厌恶理论中的参照依赖模型,构建用户的感知出行成本函数,在固定需求的交通网络中加入电子券交易费用率,建立均衡条件下的变分不等式模型。通过模拟仿真,说明市场交易费用率会影响电子券交易市场,政府可通过调节交易费用率提高电子券方案公平性。选取路网中所有起讫对间出行成本变化率波动的加权平均值,度量可交易电子券方案的公平性,综合考虑最小化系统出行总成本和最大化方案公平性两个目标,构造效用函数,分析不同权重下市场交易费用率对可交易电子券方案的影响,以期对电子券方案的公平性进行优化。     

On the Efficiency of Market Equilibrium in Production Economies

This paper introduces the notion of Market Equilibrium With Active Consumers (MEWAC), in order to characterize the efficiency of market outcomes in production economies. We show that, no matter the behaviour followed by the firms, a market equilibrium is efficient if it is a MEWAC. And also that every efficient allocation can be decentralized as a MEWAC in which firms follow the marginal pricing rule.