相协样本下概率密度函数的调整经验似然推断

本文研究相协样本下概率密度函数的调整经验似然推断,证明对数调整经验似然比统计量服从χ²分布,由此构造了相协样本下概率密度函数的调整经验似然置信区间.在有限样本情况下通过数值模拟,对比分析得到AEL的表现略优于EL和NA的表现.     

混合缺失机制下两总体差异的半经验似然置信区间

假定两个总体x与y均有数据缺失,它们的分布函数分别为F(·)与G_θ(·),其中F(·)未知,G_θ(·)的概率密度函数g_θ(·)形式已知,仅依赖于一些未知的参数,利用Fractional填补法填补缺失值,在一定的条件下证明了缺失数据下两总体差异指标的半经验似然比统计量的渐近分布为x_1~2,由此可构造两总体差异指标的经验似然置信区间.     

分位数置信区间的估计方法分析

构造了基于分位数两种估计量的渐近置信区间,并找到分位数基于样本次序统计量的渐近置信区间.同时,建立了基于分布函数核估计定义的分位数估计量的渐近正态性,并使用经验似然方法构造出分位数的两种渐近置信区间.在模拟分析中,基于置信区间的平均长度和覆盖率,分析构造分位数的五种渐近置信区间的有限样本表现.     

随机加权法在密度估计中的应用

本文给出了概率密度函数的椭机加权估计，证明了承机加权分布与密度估计的标准化估计量的分布的逼近精度可达到ｏ（１／√ｎｈ），并且构造了Ｅｆｎ（ｘ）的置信区间，其中ｆｎ（ｘ）为密度函数的核估计，ｈ＝ｈｎ炒估计的窗宽。     

缺失数据下φ混合样本情形非参数回归函数的经验似然推断

在φ混合的随机误差下,本文研究了固定设计及响应变量有缺失的非参数回归模型中回归函数的经验似然置信区间的构造.首先采用非参数回归填补法对缺失的数据进行填补,其次利用补足后得到的"完全样本"构造了非参数回归函数的经验似然比统计量,并证明了经验似然比统计量的极限分布为卡方分布,利用此结果可以构造非参数回归函数的经验似然置信区间.     

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在φ混合的随机误差下,本文研究了固定设计及响应变量有缺失的非参数回归模型中回归函数的经验似然置信区间的构造.首先采用非参数回归填补法对缺失的数据进行填补,其次利用补足后得到的"完全样本"构造了非参数回归函数的经验似然比统计量,并证明了经验似然比统计量的极限分布为卡方分布,利用此结果可以构造非参数回归函数的经验似然置信区间.     

分数填补下两总体分位数差异的半经验似然推断

在完全随机缺失机制情形,利用分数填补法填补缺失值,然后用经验似然方法构造两总体分位数差异的半经验似然比统计量,证明其渐近服从加权X~2分布并构造了相应的半经验似然置信区间.     

PA样本下非参回归函数的经验似然置信区间

在PA样本下采用分块方法构造非参数回归函数的经验似然比统计量,并在一定的正则条件下证明了统计量渐近服从卡方分布,由此构造了非参回归函数的经验似然置信区间.     

响应变量存在缺失时部分线性模型的经验似然推断

考虑响应变量带有缺失的部分线性模型,采用借补的思想,研究了参数部分和非参数部分的经验似然推断,证明了所提出的经验对数似然比统计量依分布收敛到χ2分布,由此构造参数部分和函数部分的置信域和逐点置信区间.对参数部分,模拟比较了经验似然与正态逼近方法;对函数部分,模拟了函数的逐点置信区间.     

带跳扩散过程的经验似然推断

本文对带跳扩散过程的经验似然推断进行了讨论.基于经验似然方法,我们可以针对带跳扩散过程的各项系数构造置信区间.这种置信区间的性质比基于渐近正态性构造出来的置信区间要好.     

条件密度置信区间的覆盖精度

本文用经验似然方法讨论了条件密度的置信区间的构造. 通过对覆盖概率的Edgeworth展开得到了经验似然置信区间的覆盖精度, 同时证明了条件密度的经验似然置信区间的Bartlett可修正性     

强混合样本下最近邻密度估计的渐近正态性

研究了α-混合样本下最近邻密度估计的渐近性质,证明了估计的渐近正态性并且给出了其渐近方差的显式表达式,由此构造了α-混合样本下概率密度的渐近置信区间.     

均匀分布位置参数的估计量的渐近分布及应用

对区间长度为定值均匀分布位置参数的点估计量进行了研究,得到位置参数点估计量的渐近分布.讨论了渐近分布的相关性质.给出了位置参数的区间估计及其假设检验方法.     

Optimal nonparametric estimation of the density of regression errors with finite support

Knowledge of the probability distribution of error in a regression problem plays an important role in verification of an assumed regression model, making inference about predictions, finding optimal regression estimates, suggesting confidence bands and goodness of fit tests as well as in many other issues of the regression analysis. This article is devoted to an optimal estimation of the error probability density in a general heteroscedastic regression model with possibly dependent predictors and regression errors. Neither the design density nor regression function nor scale function is assumed to be known, but they are suppose to be differentiable and an estimated error density is suppose to have a finite support and to be at least twice differentiable. Under this assumption the article proves, for the first time in the literature, that it is possible to estimate the regression error density with the accuracy of an oracle that knows “true” underlying regression errors. Real and simulated examples illustrate importance of the error density estimation as well as the suggested oracle methodology and the method of estimation.     

Quantile and tolerance-interval estimation in simulation

This paper discusses two sequential procedures to construct proportional half-width confidence intervals for a simulation estimator of the steady-state quantile and tolerance intervals for a stationary stochastic process having the (reasonable) property that the autocorrelation of the underlying process approaches zero with increasing lag. At each quantile to be estimated, the marginal cumulative distribution function must be absolutely continuous in some neighborhood of that quantile with a positive, continuous probability density function. These algorithms sequentially increase the simulation run length so that the quantile and tolerance-interval estimates satisfy pre-specified precision requirements. An experimental performance evaluation demonstrates the validity of these procedures.     

Confident estimation for density of a biological population based on line transect sampling

Line transect sampling is a very useful method in survey of wildlife population. Confident interval estimation for density D of a biological population is proposed based on a sequential design. The survey area is occupied by the population whose size is unknown. A stopping rule is proposed by a kernel-based estimator of density function of the perpendicular data at a distance. With this stopping rule, we construct several confidence intervals for D by difference procedures. Some bias reduction techniques are used to modify the confidence intervals. These intervals provide the desired coverage probability as the bandwidth in the stopping rule approaches zero. A simulation study is also given to illustrate the performance of this proposed sequential kernel procedure.     

The present value of a stochastic perpetuity and the Gamma distribution

We derive the probability density function of the present value of a perpetuity subjected to a stochastic Wiener rate of interest and prove that its inverse is Gamma distributed. This result is useful for computing the initial endowment required to fund a perpetuity, in a real world stochastic environment, under a fixed probabilistic confidence level. The proof relies on well-known martingale results from the theory of stochastic calculus. A numerical example is provided with tables.     

ALLEE EFFECTS: POPULATION GROWTH,CRITICAL DENSITY,AND THE CHANCE OF EXTINCTION

This paper develops mathematical models to describe the growth, critical density, and extinction probability in sparse populations experiencing Allee effects. An Allee effect (or depensation) is a situation at low population densities where the per-individual growth rate is an increasing function of population density. A potentially important mechanism causing Allee effects is a shortage of mating encounters in sparse populations. Stochastic models are proposed for predicting the probability of encounter or the frequency of encounter as a function of population density. A negative exponential function is derived as such an encounter function under very general biological assumptions, including random, regular, or aggregated spatial patterns. A rectangular hyperbola function, heretofore used in ecology as the functional response of predator feeding rate to prey density, arises from the negative exponential function when encounter probabilities are assumed heterogeneous among individuals. These encounter functions produce Allee effects when incorporated into population growth models as birth rates. Three types of population models with encounter-limited birth rates are compared: (1) deterministic differential equations, (2) stochastic discrete birth-death processes, and (3) stochastic continuous diffusion processes. The phenomenon of a critical density, a major consequence of Allee effects, manifests itself differently in the different types of models. The critical density is a lower unstable equilibrium in the deterministic differential equation models. For the stochastic discrete birth-death processes considered here, the critical density is an inflection point in the probability of extinction plotted as a function of initial population density. In the continuous diffusion processes, the critical density becomes a local minimum (antimode) in the stationary probability distribution for population density. For both types of stochastic models, a critical density appears as an inflection point in the probability of attaining a small population density (extinction) before attaining a large one. Multiplicative (“environmental”) stochastic noise amplifies Allee effects. Harvesting also amplifies those effects. Though Allee effects are difficult to detect or measure in natural populations, their presence would seriously impact exploitation, management, and preservation of biological resources.     

二项分布的参数估计问题研究

本文主要讨论二项分布的参数估计问题.对GB/T 4087.1-1983,GB/T 4087.2-1983,GB/T4087.3-1985给出的经典二项分布参数点估计、区间估计和可靠度置信下限计算方法进行了分析,指出了其中存在的问题.根据二项分布的数学表达式推导出了二项分布参数的概率分布密度函数,在此基础上提出了进行二项分布参数估计的一般方法.     

Natural gradient algorithm for stochastic distribution systems with output feedback

In this paper, we use natural gradient algorithm to control the shape of the conditional output probability density function for the stochastic distribution systems from the viewpoint of information geometry. The considered system here is of multi-input and single output with an output feedback and a stochastic noise. Based on the assumption that the probability density function of the stochastic noise is known, we obtain the conditional output probability density function whose shape is only determined by the control input vector under the condition that the output feedback is known at any sample time. The set of all the conditional output probability density functions forms a statistical manifold (M), and the control input vector and the output feedback are considered as the coordinate system. The Kullback divergence acts as the distance between the conditional output probability density function and the target probability density function. Thus, an iterative formula for the control input vector is proposed in the sense of information geometry. Meanwhile, we consider the convergence of the presented algorithm. At last, an illustrative example is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.