广告媒介下互补产品市场扩散扰动模型研究

创新产品通过广告媒介来传递信息以提高市场需求,对产品的扩散起着一定的作用.将创新产品的互补性分为三类互补类型,即两种产品均有独立的市场,两个产品均无独立市场,只有一个产品有独立市场.分别建立广告媒介下具有互补关系的创新产品扩散动态模型,分析具有不同竞争力的创新产品具有互补关系时市场的稳定状态,解释了产品互补型的企业纵向兼并及合用的原因,为模拟和预测动态市场结构演变及管理决策提供了理论依据.     

基于演化博弈的物流企业绿色创新扩散机制研究

绿色创新是物流企业保持竞争优势的有效途径,对降低我国环境污染和应对气候变化具有重要的作用。基于演化博弈的基本理论和方法构建了物流企业群体、政府监管方和消费者群体的三方模型,对其绿色创新扩散的渐进稳定性进行了分析,并运用matlab软件仿真分析了不同参数对绿色创新扩散的影响。研究表明:政府参与监管是物流企业绿色创新扩散的助推器;随着时间的推进,政府最终均会选择退出监管,只是不同监管方式下退出速度不同;政府对物流企业的创新补贴力度应控制一定的范围内。     

新媒介影响下的创新产品信息扩散模型研究

随着科技的飞速发展,新媒介越来越受到关注,成为信息获取的主要途径.鉴于新媒介与传统媒介的巨大不同,为了研究新型电子商务环境下的创新产品扩散特征,基于BASS模型,构建了新媒体渠道下的两种创新产品信息扩散模型.通过仿真模拟得到新媒介影响下的两类产品信息的扩散规律及扩散状态差异.新媒介环境下的产品扩散具有非常明显的优势,企业管理者需要调整的营销渠道战略以适应时代发展步伐.     

基于AJ模型的集群企业合作创新收益分析

针对集群环境下的企业合作,在AJ模型的基础上,引入初始生产成本、创新系数、溢出程度、产品相似系数四个变量,通过模拟仿真,分析了企业在完全合作(研发和生产两阶段都合作)、半合作Ⅰ(仅在研发阶段合作)、半合作Ⅱ(仅在生产阶段合作)、完全不合作(研发和生产两阶段都不合作)四种合作创新模式中,各变量对企业收益的影响,得出不同环境变量下企业最优的合作策略.研究表明:集群的技术扩散环境会削弱集群内企业研发合作的动力;前两种合作模式下,企业收益随溢出程度的增加而增加,后两种模式下,先增加后减小;对于创新效率较高的企业,研发阶段的合作相比生产阶段合作更能为其带来超额收益;对于产品同质性较强的企业,生产阶段的合作更重要;企业间的产品越同质,合作效果会越好.     

短视型创新企业最优定价研究

率先创新使企业拥有时间和产品竞争力上的优势,获得先动优势;而模仿创新减少企业的研发成本,更能满足顾客的需求,从而可以获得更高的成功率,使模仿创新企业获得后进优势.针对短视型创新企业行为,研究以原始创新产品进入市场、模仿创新产品进入市场、原始创新产品的升级换代产品进入市场为分隔点的产品生命周期不同阶段下率先创新企业对产品的最优定价,以及模仿创新企业采用不同价格策略下的产品均衡定价.结论表明:无论企业采用什么价格策略,升级换代产品进入市场的最优时间都应满足升级换代产品进入市场前创新企业的阶段末瞬时利润率与进入市场后的初始瞬时利润率相等.     

基于集群创新合作网络的知识创新与扩散过程建模及仿真研究

基于集群创新合作网络的知识创新和知识扩散过程是集群企业实现创新的关键。为了揭示集群创新合作网络中知识增长绩效的演化规律,探讨不同网络中知识增长绩效的差异及其形成原因,论文构建了知识创新与扩散的过程模型,以东北三省新能源汽车集群创新合作网络为例,运用复杂网络理论和仿真方法进行分析。研究发现,集群创新合作网络的整体知识水平呈现先递增后递减的演化规律;知识增长的演化过程存在突变点,突变时期不同网络中企业知识水平分化的情况决定不同网络知识增长绩效的差异性;知识扩散约束条件是知识创新与扩散过程的关键;实际网络并非知识创新与扩散的最优网络,无标度网络具有知识增长的绩效优势;hub结构和适度的节点度值分布差异性有利于提升知识增长绩效。     

基于Entropy-Topsis模型的产品创新过程分析与实证检验

基于生态位的理念,本研究将产品创新过程划分为概念设计生态位、研发生态位、调试生态位、工业生产生态位以及市场交易生态位,以此形成产品创新过程中的演进序列;通过分析产品创新过程中不同创新生态位的影响因素,继而测度不同创新生态位的演进状态。此后,本研究以103个处于不同创新生态位的制造业企业产品创新项目作为实证分析对象,应用Entropy-Topsis模型测评不同产品创新生态位的演进态势,对收集的样本调查数据进行分析并验证理论模型。     

基于演化博弈的制造企业服务创新扩散研究

制造企业服务化是我国实现制造强国的必经之路,本文以“中国制造2025”战略为背景,通过借鉴创新扩散和演化博弈理论,对社会系统中参与服务创新的相关主体进行分析,构建政府与企业之间演化博弈模型,结合并改进Bass经典创新扩散模型,探究政府规制行为对企业服务创新行为演化及扩散的影响,利用Matlab对复制动态方程和扩散模型进行数学推导和数值仿真分析。结果表明:当满足政府的社会总收益大于其调控成本和各项补贴总额且企业选择服务创新策略时收益的额外增加额大于其实际投入时,系统才会演化至政府调控且企业采纳服务创新的稳定状态;适当增加政府对企业的调控力度、投入补贴和税收补贴有助于推进服务创新在系统中的扩散,其中税收补贴的感知能力最强,投入补贴最弱;将抑制系数引入Bass创新扩散模型,构建互补型、竞争型和替代型三种服务创新的扩散模式,其中竞争型扩散符合中国现阶段市场规律,替代性扩散将成为未来制造企业的发展趋势。     

面向集群创新网络异质企业的知识扩散建模及仿真研究

基于合作的集群创新网络知识扩散已经成为企业实现知识创新的重要手段,而集群创新网络知识扩散的动力学过程强烈依赖于异质企业间知识扩散能力的影响,为此,本文综合考虑了企业间不同接触数量、知识吸收和传播能力、知识淘汰率等异质性因素,建立了基于传染病理论的知识扩散模型,验证了由各异质因素构成的知识扩散再生数对知识扩散均衡和扩散效果的影响,并结合仿真实验进一步得出:在知识扩散前期,集群创新网络应发挥hub节点及异质网络的优势加快知识扩散,在中后期应注意企业关系发展的均衡性及企业接触邻居的规模性;相比过于强调知识交流的广泛性,加强企业传播能力和吸收能力的培养对网络知识扩散效果的提升更具意义;随着时间演化,企业知识淘汰率也会影响网络知识扩散的收敛情况。     

中国制造企业绿色供应链管理实践类型及绩效实证研究

基于创新扩散理论并使用SPSS统计软件对绿色供应链管理实践进行聚类分析,识别出三种不同类型的企业,即领先企业、起步企业和落后企业;进一步通过ANOVA分析和Scheffe多重比较检验,证明不同类型的企业在绿色供应链管理的环境、运营和经济绩效提升方面存在差别。     

Dynamic Strategic Pricing and Speed of Diffusion

Defining speed of diffusion as the amount of time it takes to get from one penetration level to a higher one, we introduce a dynamic model in which we study the link between pricing policy, speed of diffusion, and number of competitors in the market. Our analysis shows that, in the case of strategic (oligopolistic) competition, the speed of diffusion has an important influence on the optimal pricing policy. In particular, we find that higher speeds of diffusion create an incentive to strategically interacting firms to lower their prices.     

The rise of complex phenomena in Cournot duopoly games due to demand functions without inflection points

In this paper, we propose Cournot duopoly games where quantity-setting firms use non-linear demand functions that have no inflection points. Two different kinds of repeated games are introduced based on rationality process of firms and Puu’s incomplete approach. First, a model of two rational firms that are in competition and produce homogenous commodities is introduced. The equilibrium points of this model are obtained and their dynamical characteristics such as stability, bifurcation and chaos are investigated. By using rationality process firms do not need to solve any optimization problem but they adjust their production based on estimation of the marginal profit. Using Puu’s incomplete information approach a new model is introduced. As in the first model, the equilibrium points are obtained and their dynamical characteristics are investigated. By using Puu’s approach firms only need to know their profits and the quantities produced in the past two times. We compare the properties of the two models under the two approaches. The paper extends and generalizes the results of other authors that consider similar processes.     

Equilibrium two-part cost structures

We consider an oligopolistic product market in which two competing firms instead of paying a competitive input price choose a two-part tariff. Costs for the input are divided up into upfront fixed costs independent of the output level and reductions in marginal costs. We explore under which competitive settings will such a two-part cost structure correspond to equilibrium behavior in a two stage game. We find that firms in a static model do have an incentive to choose a two-part cost structure when competition in the product market is not too strong and oligopoly rents can be shifted form the rival to the own firm. In a dynamic market when firms use Markov strategies competition is so intense that there are no rents to be shifted and firms do not benefit from two-part cost structures.     

Research on competition diffusion of the multiple-advanced manufacturing mode in a cluster environment

This paper deals with competition diffusion of multiple-advanced manufacturing modes in a cluster environment, to reveal the competition diffusion rules of the advanced manufacturing mode. First, the influencing factors on advanced manufacturing mode diffusion in a cluster environment are analysed. Second, the diffusion properties and the diffusion mechanism are analysed, and the competition diffusion model of multiple-modes is established. Third, the model is analysed and the qualitative results are presented. Finally, the application of the diffusion model is exemplified and simulated (by matlab 7.1), producing results that are consistent with qualitative analysis that also verifies the correctness of the model. In addition, the influence of the cluster environment is discussed. The diffusion model helps enterprises understand the diffusion rules of the advanced manufacturing modes and provides a decision-making basis for enterprises and government.     

对相关市场条件下贸易竞争的博弈机制及福利效应的研究

在古诺双头模型的框架内分析了市场风险和相关因素对贸易竞争均衡和福利水平的影响.与传统模型不同,假设各国市场具有潜在相关的随机需求,且出口企业具有风险规避的态度,并利用博弈模型研究了市场风险和相关因子对竞争力和成本优势形成的产出效应及定价行为的影响.推论表明国际市场的不确定性和相关性削弱了企业在完全信息条件下参与贸易竞争的动机,而各国的福利水平则取决于企业风险态度、市场风险和相关系数的特定组合.     

Competition and contracting in service industries

In service industries with congestion effects, two very different contractual structures are commonly observed, depending on whether or not firms choose to offer a guaranteed service level. We analyze the impact of these choices on market outcomes in oligopolistic industries. Our results highlight how different contractual agreements change the intensity of price competition in service industries. Broadly speaking, we show that competition is intensified when firms choose to offer service level guarantees.     

跨国公司与国内企业之间的非对称研发竞争

同跨国公司相比，国内企业的融资能力受到资本市场的限制，这削弱了其参与研发竞争的能力。本文建立了一个动态博弈模型来分析这一状况。研究表明，跨国公司存在一种研发竞争策略，即通过更激进的产品市场攻势，来对国内企业施加融资限制，进而扩大其研发竞争优势。这一策略增加了跨国公司垄断技术产品市场的可能性。     

Sequential market entries and competition modelling in multi-innovation diffusions

The diffusion of innovations for simultaneous processes cannot take into account and properly explain systematic perturbations due to competition-substitution effects if they are examined one by one. A first aspect in simultaneous competing diffusions is the distinction between simultaneous market entries (synchronic competition) and sequential entries (diachronic competition). In the latter case, the beginning of competition may upset the first entrant’s diffusion. A second important aspect in multiple competition is represented by the choice to model the word-of-mouth effect either at the category level (balanced model) or at the brand level, separating the within-brand effect from the cross-brand one (unbalanced model). In this paper, balanced models are studied, and we propose a model that allows for a change in the parameter values of the first entrant as soon as the second one enters the market. The resulting differential system has a closed-form solution that enables, through sales data, an empirical validation of the assumptions underlying the model structure, improving the forecasting accuracy. An application to pharmaceutical drug competition is discussed.     

Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty

We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.     

第三方数据平台精准营销收费模式研究

第三方数据平台通过大数据分析技术为商家提供精准营销服务,本文研究了两个竞争商家通过同一个数据平台进行精准营销时,平台收费模式(费率佣金与按销量收费)对商家竞争以及平台与商家利润的影响。研究发现:1)费率佣金模式的绩效依赖于费率参数,在精准度高的情况下,它不能最大化平台与商家的利润。2)与费率佣金相比,按销量收费模式显著提高了商家的利润,并且平台与商家的利润都随费用参数的增加而增加。3)从收费模式选择的角度,精准度越高,按销量收费模式的优势越明显;费率佣金模式适用于垄断情况,而按销量收费模式更适用于竞争情况。4)费率佣金与按销量收费的结合可以实现平台与商家的共赢。研究结论为大数据驱动下的精准营销收费模式选择,以及“大数据平台”的盈利模式创新提供了理论参考。