Global asymptotic properties of an SEIRS model with multiple infectious stages

The paper presents a rigorous mathematical analysis of a deterministic model, which uses a standard incidence function, for the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease with an arbitrary number of distinct infectious stages. It is shown, using a linear Lyapunov function, that the model has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Further, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold exceeds unity. The equilibrium is shown to be locally-asymptotically stable, for a special case, using a Krasnoselskii sub-linearity trick. Finally, a non-linear Lyapunov function is used to show the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium (for the special case). Numerical simulation results, using parameter values relevant to the transmission dynamics of influenza, are presented to illustrate some of the main theoretical results.     

Global stability of a delayed epidemic model with latent period and vaccination strategy

In this paper, a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with an exposed (latent) period and waning vaccine-induced immunity is investigated. The basic reproduction number is found by applying the method of the next generation matrix. It is shown that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. By means of appropriate Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, it is proven that if the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease fades out; and if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and therefore the disease becomes endemic.     

一类具有常恢复率且总人口变化的SEIS传染病模型的稳定性

This paper considers an SEIS epidemic model with infectious force in the latent period and a general population-size dependent contact rate.A threshold parameter R is identified.If R≤1,the disease-free equilibrium O is globally stable.IfR>1,there is a unique endemic equilibrium and O is unstable.For two important special cases of bilinear and standard incidence,sufficient conditions for the global stability of this endemic equilibrium are given.The same qualitative results are obtained provided the threshold is more than unity for the corresponding SEIS model with no infectious force in the latent period.Some existing results are extended and improved.     

Global dynamics of a delayed SEIS infectious disease model with logistic growth and saturation incidence

In this paper, a delayed Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious‐Susceptible (SEIS) infectious disease model with logistic growth and saturation incidence is investigated, where the time delay describes the latent period of the disease. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease‐free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is discussed. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established. By using the persistence theory for infinite dimensional dynamic systems, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the system is permanent. By means of suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, respectively. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global stability for an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment is constructed. The model allows for the latent individuals to have the slow and fast latent compartments. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are determined by the basic reproduction number under some conditions. If R₀ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R₀ > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case. Some numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.     

STABILITY OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH CONSTANT RECRUITMENT AND A VARYING TOTAL POPULATION SIZE

This paper considers an SEIS epidemic model with infectious force in the latent period and a general population-size dependent contact rate. A threshold parameter R is identified. If R≤1, the disease-free equilibrium O is globally stable. If R〉1, there is a unique endemic equilibrium and O is unstable. For two important special cases of bilinear and standard incidence ,sufficient conditions for the global stability of this endemic equilibrium are given. The same qualitative results are obtained provided the threshold is more than unity for the corresponding SEIS model with no infectious force in the latent period. Some existing results are extended and improved.     

一类潜伏期与传染期均传染的SEIQR传染病模型

研究了一类潜伏期和感染期均传染的SEIQR模型的全局稳定性,找到疾病绝灭和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数R0,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性和全局渐近稳定性,揭示了隔离对疾病控制的积极作用。     

A delayed SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a constant infectious period

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a time delay describing a constant infectious period is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is established. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, it is proved that the disease is uniformly persistent in the population, and explicit formulae are obtained to estimate the eventual lower bound of the fraction of infectious individuals. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global attractiveness of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.     

Re-infection-induced backward bifurcation in the transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis is designed and analyzed to gain insights into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It is further shown that the backward bifurcation dynamic is caused by the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the classical requirement of the reproduction number being less than unity becomes only a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for disease elimination. The basic model is extended to incorporate the use of treatment for infectious individuals (including those who show disease symptoms and those who do not). Rigorous analysis of the treatment model reveals that the use of treatment could have positive or negative population-level impact, depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold. The treatment model is used to evaluate various treatment strategies, namely treating every infected individual showing symptoms of Chlamydia (universal strategy), treating only infectious males showing Chlamydia symptoms (male-only strategy) and treating only infectious females showing symptoms of Chlamydia (female-only strategy). Numerical simulations show that the implementation of the male-only or female-only strategy can induce an indirect benefit of saving new cases of Chlamydia infection in the opposite sex. Further, the universal strategy gives the highest reduction in the cumulative number of new cases of infection.     

Stability analysis for an epidemic model with stage structure

An epidemic model with stage structure is formulated. The period of infection is partitioned into the early and later stages according to the developing process of infection, and the infectious individuals in the different stages have the different ability of transmitting disease. The constant recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as the disease-related death, are incorporated into the model. The basic reproduction number of this model is determined by the method of next generation matrix. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the local stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained; the global stability of the endemic equilibrium is got under the case that the infection is not fatal.     

Mathematical study of a risk-structured two-group model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis, which stratifies the entire population based on risk of acquiring or transmitting infection, is designed and analyzed to gain insight into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Unlike in some of the earlier modeling studies on Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population, this study shows that the backward bifurcation phenomenon persists even if individuals who recovered from Chlamydia infection do not get re-infected. However, it is shown that the phenomenon can be removed if all the susceptible individuals are equally likely to acquire infection (i.e., for the case where the susceptible male and female populations are not stratified according to risk of acquiring infection). In such a case, the DFE of the resulting (reduced) model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and no re-infection of recovered individuals occurs. Thus, this study shows that stratifying the two-sex Chlamydia transmission model, presented in [1], according to the risk of acquiring or transmitting infection induces the phenomenon of backward bifurcation regardless of whether or not the re-infection of recovered individuals occurs.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设被传染的易感者一部分经过一段潜伏期后才具有传染性,而另一部分被感染的易感者直接成为传染者,建立了一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型,得到了确定疾病是否成为地方病的基本再生数以及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

具有免疫接种且总人口规模变化的SIR传染病模型的稳定性

讨论一类具有预防免疫接种且有效接触率依赖于总人口的SIR传染病模型,给出了决定疾病灭绝和持续生存的基本再生数σ的表达式,在一定条件下证明了疾病消除平衡点的全局稳定性,得到了唯一地方病平衡点的存在性和局部渐近稳定性条件.最后研究了具有双线性传染率和标准传染率的两个具体模型,并证明了当σ>1时该模型地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.     

Global dynamics of a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type‐III functional response

In this paper, an eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type‐III functional response and a time delay representing the gestation period of the predators is investigated. In the model, it is assumed that the predator population suffers a transmissible disease. The disease basic reproduction number is obtained. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium are established, respectively. By using the persistence theory on infinite dimensional systems, it is proved that if the disease basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the system is permanent. By means of Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium, the disease‐free equilibrium and the predator‐extinction equilibrium of the system, respectively. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a stage‐structured SI epidemic model with time delay and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease‐free equilibrium, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations are established. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global asymptotic stability of a generalized SIRS epidemic model with transfer from infectious to susceptible

In this paper, we propose a generalized SIRS epidemic model with varying total population size caused by the death rate due to the disease and transfer from infectious to susceptible, where the incidence rate employed includs a wide range of monotonic and concave incidence rates. Applying the geometric approach developed by Smith, Li and Muldowey, we prove that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable provided that the rate of loss of immuity $\delta$ is in a critical interval $[\eta,\bar\delta)$ when the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is greater than unity.     

Mathematical Analysis of West Nile Virus Model with Discrete Delays

The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (?₀) is less than unity. As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever ?₀ > 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the community if a certain threshold quantities, denoted by Δ_b and Δ_v are negative. On the other hand, increasing the length of the incubation period increases disease burden if Δ_b > 0 and Δ_v > 0. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to the corresponding autonomous model with standard incidence (considered in [2]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease).     

Mathematical analysis of an eco-epidemiological predator–prey model with stage-structure and latency

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological predator–prey model with stage structure for the prey and a time delay describing the latent period of the disease is investigated. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of the trivial equilibrium, the predator-extinction equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is addressed. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the trivial equilibrium, the predator-extinction equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of the model.