基于投资组合理论的战略指挥能力生成模式比较分析

恰当选择战略指挥能力生成模式是提升战略指挥能力的前提和基础.在对战略指挥能力生成模式进行理论分析的基础上,运用投资组合理论和网络层次分析法,构建战略指挥能力生成模式的因果关系模型和内部因素效能模型,分析战略指挥能力生成因素的效能影响系数和权重,并对战略指挥能力的四种主要生成模式进行数值仿真和成本比较分析.     

面向任务的网络化天基信息系统连续性效能评估

网络化天基信息系统以其快速的信息获取和处理能力在保卫国家安全、及时发现灾害等方面起到了至关重要的作用.本文以抗震救灾为应用背景,分析了系统的工作流程和主要任务,构建了多任务层次的系统连续性效能指标体系,度量了系统返回信息的密集程度.根据连续性指标特点,针对不同任务选择参考指标,建立了基于灰色评估法的效能评估模型,满足了系统面向任务的信息需求.利用仿真统计数据给出了算例,综合得到连续性效能评估结果,同时提供了连续性效能在每个任务层次的具体评估细节,为系统的设计和使用提供了指导和技术参考.     

基于LS-SVM的现代战斗机空战效能评估模型研究

现代战斗机空战是当前空中力量遂行作战任务的主要模式,其空战效能的评估问题也是研究的难点之一.在分析现代战斗机空战模式及七个关键影响因素的基础上,引入人工智能技术的思路和方法,运用LS-SVM支持向量机方法对现代战斗机空战效能进行了多级评估LS-SVM支持向量机分类器设计并建立智能评估模型,结合实例进行了计算和分析,为进一步研究空战效能的评估问题提供了一种新的思路.     

基于最小延误时间和经济成本的空中高速路匝口排序研究

空中高速路是解决空域资源紧缺问题的一种新途径.在建立延误时间成本最小的空中高速路匝口航班排序模型的基础上,分析并得出了航班延误经济成本函数,建立了基于最小延误时间和经济成本的空中高速路匝口航班排序模型,并利用NSGAII算法进行求解.最后利用不同时段的航班数据进行算例仿真,计算航空器进入空中高速路的时刻及其延误成本.结果表明,与先到先服务策略相比,提出的优化模型对于单个航班的延误时间成本、经济成本和累积经济成本分别降低47.2%,51.3%和54.4%,模型与解法可行.     

截击机机载武器装备最优规划的遗传算法研究

机载武器的合理配置是飞机作战效能得以充分发挥的前提条件.本文给出了截击机拦截多目标时的效能评估指标及其与机载武器系统之间的关系模型,并以遗传算法确定了截击机作战效能与武器装备及相关飞行参数的量化关系.经过仿真计算成功地解决了截击机在一定作战条件下,效能指标达到最大时武器装备的最优规划问题.     

近程空中目标航路研究

本文在等加速俯冲飞行假定下,分析了近程空中目标航路的特点,并据此提出了目标航路模型.经过投影变换,把目标航路模型转化为二次函数,从而使目标航路的滤波及预报问题得到简化,采用弟推最小二乘(RLS)原理,给出了目标航路的滤波器及预报器,最后,对本文方法进行了仿真,并对仿真结果进行了分析.     

地空导弹武器系统效能评估指标体系研究

地空导弹武器系统效能评估是地空导弹武器系统研制和使用过程中的关键环节.效能评估指标体系的建立是保证效能评估科学、合理的重要基础.针对现代地空导弹武器系统的使用特点,在W SE IAC模型的框架下,构建了地空导弹武器系统效能评估指标体系,并给出了指标的分解及确定方法.研究结果可为地空导弹武器系统效能评估提供支持.     

群体控制的媒介干预模型

为了全面模拟对抗性人群行为,控制策略的效能评估是必不可少的.建立群体控制的媒介干预模型,通过引入社会不满模型和情绪模型,揭示媒介干预下个体行为由聚集到逃离的心理机制和行为规律.在粒子群算法中对粒子个体受力分析,仿真结果能够体现控制策略与控制效果的关系.参数分析表明,媒介属性与驱散率呈正比;媒介放置队形中间位置,驱散率大于两侧位置;个性特征值越大驱散率越低.最后设计仿真实验,验证建立模型的有效性.模型可以对群体控制策略进行效能评估,为控制人群提供一定决策支持.     

近程空中目标航路研究

本文在等加速俯冲飞行假定下，分析了近程空中目标航路的特点，并据此提出了目标航路模型．经过投影变换，把目标航路模型转化为二次函数，从而使目标航路的滤波及预报问题得到简化．采用递推最小二乘（ＲＬＳ）原理，给出了目标航路的在线滤波器及预报器．最后，对本文方法进行了仿真，并对仿真结果进行了分析．     

基于混沌遗传-支持向量机的空地攻击型无人机作战效能评估

空地攻击型无人机的作战效能评估在未来战场“去功能化”打击中具有重要的意义.在对空地攻击型无人机作战效能实时评估时,影响作战效能的评价指标体系因素相对复杂,建立作战效能评估模型存在非线性特点,因此本文引入了具有较强鲁棒性的支持向量回归机算法进行作战效能评估,在构建空地攻击型无人机评估体系基础上,利用混沌系统-遗传算法对支持向量机惩罚因子等参数进行优化,保证战场实时环境下效能评估的有效性和效率.通过实例分析,混沌遗传-支持向量机模型能够准确地对空地攻击型无人机进行有效的作战效能评估,具有良好的鲁棒性.     

Semi-dynamic modelling of heterogeneous land combat

We propose a semi-dynamic approach to tactical level land combat modelling from the attacker's viewpoint. Our approach decomposes a battle between heterogeneous forces into stages and mini battles. For each mini battle in a stage, we use three models: a mathematical programming model for optimizing force allocations, a Lanchester simulation model for predicting whether or not the stage targets are reached under the allocations, and a model for weapon effectiveness update from one stage to the next. These models interact with each other within the framework of a decision support system to help the user with allocation decisions as well as prediction of force requirements to win the battle.     

面向多阶段任务的武器系统备件优化配置建模

资源优化配置是作战单元维修保障的关键因素.当作战单元执行单阶段任务时,讨论了部件结构为串联系统和k/n系统的任务成功概率建模问题,在此基础上,建立了k/n结构动态变化的多阶段任务系统的任务成功概率模型.在满足系统任务成功概率约束条件下,给出了防空作战单元备件携行量优化模型,并运用边际分析法进行了求解,通过示例表明了模型的正确性.     

Development of a novel family of military campaign simulation models

Dstl has sponsored the development and use of a family of campaign level models of military operations. The models are required to provide an insight into force structure assessment, procurement decisions and doctrinal developments. The family comprises CLARION (land/air war-fighting), COMAND (maritime/air war-fighting) and DIAMOND (non-war-fighting). The two key features of the family are the core role played by the representation of C3I (command, control, communications and information) and the classification of combat units by their interactions with one another at an aggregated level rather than by treating them as a collection of specific combat platforms.     

多维约束下的军队战斗力增长模型

战斗力是军事科学研究中的一个基本概念，其基本要素是人与武器及其相互关系。已有的研究大多采用定性分析的方法探讨了战斗力的重要性、战斗力的组成、影响战斗力的因素等，缺少关于战斗力的量化分析模型。本采用量化分析方法，建立了一个基本的反映军队战斗力大小的模型，在对单因素约束下战斗力增长模型进行较详细的优化分析基础上，建立了多维约束下的战斗力增长模型。     

Combat games

We propose a mathematical formulation of a combat game between two opponents with offensive capabilities and offensive objectives. Resolution of the combat involves solving two differential games with state constraints. Depending on the game dynamics and parameters, the combat can terminate in one of four ways: (i) the first player wins, (ii) the second player wins, (iii) a draw (neither wins), or (iv) joint capture. In the first two cases, the optimal strategies of the two players are determined from suitable zero-sum games, whereas in the latter two the relevant games are nonzero-sum. Further, to avoid certain technical difficulties, the concept of a -combat game is introduced.Dedicated to G. LeitmannThe first author wishes to acknowledge the friendship and guidance of George Leitmann, beginning in the author's student days at Berkeley and continuing to the present time. All the authors thank George Leitmann for many recent fruitful discussions on differential games.on sabbatical leave from Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.     

随机环境下资金预算问题的机会约束整数规划模型

本文基于最新的机会约束规划理论,提出了两类随机环境下资金预算问题的整数规划模型,并且设计了一种基于随机模拟的遗传算法来计算给出的模型．为了例证算法的有效性,本文给出了两类模型的数值例子,并且对其中一个例子给出了不同的参数,测试遗传算法的有效性,数值例子及测试结果均显示,本文所设计的基于随机模拟的遗传算法对于解决本文提出的两类模型是有效的．     

A Symmetric Adaptive Model of Combat

Analytical models are used to examine theories of military combat, a violent conflict between two groups. Typically these models focus on combat power (manpower and technology) and ignore intrinsic sociological factors, both in terms of the interaction between forces, and each force's organizational structure and internal dynamics, such as social climate, morale, and leadership. This paper describes a symmetric adaptive model of combat, in which the use of feedback allows opposing forces to attempt to regulate the intensity of the fight, or even abandon the fight, depending on battlefield losses. Furthermore, parameters are introduced to provide a framework for incorporating the sociological structure and dynamics of the two forces. A preliminary analysis of the model is presented.     

Digital Simulation in the Teaching of Management and Technology

The application of mathematical models to computer simulation laboratories covering management and technological situations is discussed. Laboratory simulation is illustrated in relation to a production‐control laboratory and other teaching applications are discussed. The desirability of ‘stretching’ students during a limited teaching period demands that time on the laboratory model should be speeded up by a factor of perhaps 20,000 over real‐time. Ways of achieving this and some other teaching objectives are described, including some points in the application of hill‐climbing techniques to simulation problems. Finally, the cost effectiveness of this method is briefly covered.     

An application of a hybrid approach to modeling a flexible manufacturing system

Both analytic and simulation models were used to analyze the capabilities and requirements of an automated circuit card manufacturing system. Analytic models were used to determine the sensitivity of the measures of effectiveness (MOEs) to various design parameters. This analysis gave approximate results and bounded the range of input parameters for the simulation model. A detailed simulation model was required for use during both the design and production phases of the project. This simulation model incorporated only those variables to which the MOEs are most sensitive, and provided additional features to observe system behavior. The benefits and appropriate uses for each class of models are discussed.