Modeling plant disease with biological control of insect pests

Abstract

Introduction: This article discusses the problem of plant diseases that pose major threat to agriculture in several parts of the World. Herein, our focus is on viruses that are transmitted from one plant to another by insect vectors. We consider predators that prey on insect population leading to reduction in infection transmission of plant diseases. Methods: We formulate and analyze a deterministic model for plant disease by incorporating predators as biological control agents. Existence of equilibria and the stability of the model are discussed in-detail. Basic reproduction number R₀ of the proposed model is also computed and this helps in determining the impact of different key parameters on the transmission dynamics of disease. Additionally, the proposed model is extended to stochastic model and simulation results of both deterministic and stochastic models are compared and analyzed. Results: Our results of stochastic model show the less number of infected plants and insects compared to corresponding results for deterministic model. Also, our results analyze the impact of different key parameters on the equilibrium levels of infected plants and identify the key parameters. Discussion: Presented results are used to conclude and demonstrate that the biological control is effective in reducing the infection transmission of plant disease and there is a need to use plant-insect-specific predators to get desirable results.     

A impulsive infective transmission SI model for pest control

In this paper, we propose a model with impulsive control of epidemics for pest management. By using Floquet's theorem, small‐amplitude perturbation skills and comparison theorem, we show that there exists a globally asymptotically stable susceptible pest‐eradication periodic solution when the release amount of infective pests is larger than some critical value. However, when the amount of infective pests released is less than this critical value, the system is shown to be permanent, which implies that the trivial periodic susceptible pest‐eradication solution loses its stability. Further, the existence of a positive periodic endemic solution and other rich dynamics are also studied by numerical simulation. Therefore, we can use the amount of release of infective pests to control susceptible pests at desirable low levels. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类具有二次感染和接种的两病株流行病模型

本文考虑了一类具有二次感染和接种的两病株流行病模型，通过定义每一病株的基本再生数和侵入再生数，我们分析了非负平衡态的稳定性并获得了这样结论：对于较低的接种水平，病株一感染者处于支配地位而病株二感染者将从易感人群中消失，对于非常高的接种水平，疾病将均被消除。     

MATHEMATICAL STUDY OF A PEST CONTROL MODEL INCORPORATING STERILE INSECT TECHNIQUE

The menace of insect pests is a topic of major concern throughout the world. Chemical pesticides are conventionally used to control these insect pests. However, the adverse effects of these synthetic pesticides, such as high toxicity from residues in food, contamination of water and the environment resulting in human health hazard and resistance of the pest to the pesticides have necessitated development of some nonconventional approaches of biological pest control. In this research, we have focused on a mathematical model of biological pest control using the sterile insect release technique. Unlike most of the existing modeling studies in this field that mainly deal with the pest population only, we have incorporated the crop population as a distinct dynamical equation together with the fertile and sterile insect pests. Local stability analysis is performed around the crop and fertile insect free axial equilibrium, the fertile‐insect‐free boundary equilibrium, the crop‐free boundary equilibrium and the equilibrium point of coexistence. From the study we have derived a number of thresholds for the SIRR (the main parameter for our study) that cause existence and or extinction of the crop population as well as the fertile insect pests. A global study of the model system using comparison arguments revealed existence of a global attractor for the system. Numerical simulations are done to support and augment analytical results.     

A predator–prey–disease model with immune response in infected prey

In this paper, a predator–prey–disease model with immune response in the infected prey is formulated. The basic reproduction number of the within-host model is defined and it is found that there are three equilibria: extinction equilibrium, infection-free equilibrium and infection-persistent equilibrium. The stabilities of these equilibria are completely determined by the reproduction number of the within-host model. Furthermore, we define a basic reproduction number of the between-host model and two predator invasion numbers: predator invasion number in the absence of disease and predator invasion number in the presence of disease. We have predator and infection-free equilibrium, infection-free equilibrium, predator-free equilibrium and a co-existence equilibrium. We determine the local stabilities of these equilibria with conditions on the reproduction and invasion reproduction numbers. Finally, we show that the predator-free equilibrium is globally stable.     

阻滞增长模型支持下对益虫和害虫数量关系及农药影响的分析

研究了在自然状态和喷洒农药情况下益虫和害虫数量的发展趋势.基于logistic模型并加以改进建模,通过分析微分方程平衡点的稳定性,分别得出了自然状态下益虫和害虫的数量发展规律.在此基础上,进而建立了农药影响的模型并进行了计算机仿真,仿真结果证明了新模型的合理性和适用性,解决了Lotka—Volterra模型存在的问题.另外,该仿真程序本身可以作为应用程序用于实际的农田管理.     

基于元胞自动机的植物病虫害传播的计算机仿真

利用元胞自动机方法建立植物病虫害传播的数学模型。在此基础上,分别对两种不同病虫害来源的情况进行仿真。仿真结果表明,在参数给定的情况下,无论病虫来源于自身还是外界,植物病虫害的传播均在一定时间后达到稳定状态,不同状态元胞占有率相近;相同参数下,同病虫来源于自身相比,植物病虫从外界入侵时,植物被感染的变化率较低,病虫害传播路径较有规律,有利于病虫害源的确定和病虫害的治理。     

Hybrid approach for pest control with impulsive releasing of natural enemies and chemical pesticides: A plant–pest–natural enemy model

The agricultural pests can be controlled effectively by simultaneous use (i.e., hybrid approach) of biological and chemical control methods. Also, many insect natural enemies have two major life stages, immature and mature. According to this biological background, in this paper, we propose a three tropic level plant–pest–natural enemy food chain model with stage structure in natural enemy. Moreover, impulsive releasing of natural enemies and harvesting of pests are also considered. We obtain that the system has two types of periodic solutions: plant–pest-extinction and pest-extinction using stroboscopic maps. The local stability for both periodic solutions is studied using the Floquet theory of the impulsive equation and small amplitude perturbation techniques. The sufficient conditions for the global attractivity of a pest-extinction periodic solution are determined by the comparison technique of impulsive differential equations. We analyze that the global attractivity of a pest-extinction periodic solution and permanence of the system are evidenced by a threshold limit of an impulsive period depending on pulse releasing and harvesting amounts. Finally, numerical simulations are given in support of validation of the theoretical findings.     

森林病虫害模型的数值模拟

讨论森林病虫害的离散模型.根据森林病虫害传播的特征,针对各分块区域之间已感病树不互相转移的情况,建立差分方程模型;讨论系统的平衡点,并对无病平衡点和地方病平衡点进行稳定性分析,得到地方病平衡点稳定的充分条件;用Matlab进行多种情况的数值模拟,验证了理论结果.     

OPTIMIZING SPATIAL AND DYNAMIC POPULATION-BASED CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR INVADING FOREST PESTS

This paper explores spatial optimization approaches to managing invading exotic forest pests. The relevant land planning area is divided into cells, and pest population growth and dispersal are modeled with linear, continuous-variable formulations. Management actions are limited to those that apply directly to pest extermination, as opposed to host-oriented management actions. A stylized case example is used to demonstrate the potential application of the model formulation and to show that simple spatial strategies such as “barrier zone” approaches to slowing an organism's invasion may not always be optimal.     

多元模糊回归预测模型及其应用

论述多元模糊回归预测模糊的建模方法,探讨该预测模型在第二代玉米螟百株卵量各动态上的应用,研究结果表明,该预测模型为害害虫群动态的中长期预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法,是一种优良的模型。     

Global analysis for an epidemical model of vector-borne plant viruses with disease resistance and nonlinear incidence

Vector-borne disease models play an important role in understanding the mechanism of plant disease transmission. In this paper, we study a vector-borne model with plant disease resistance, disease exposed period and nonlinear incidence. We compute the basic reproduction number, determine the implicit locations of equilibria and then investigate their global stability by generalizing a classic geometric approach to higher dimensional systems. Higher dimensions cause greater difficulties such as the construction of the transformation matrix and the estimate of the $Lozinski\tilde{\iota}$ measure in this geometric approach. For a complete control of vector-borne diseases, a quantitative way is provided by the given expression of the basic reproduction number, from which we need not only increasing plant disease resistance but also decreasing the contact rate between infected plants and susceptible vectors instead of a single one of them.     

A delayed epidemic model with stage-structure and pulses for pest management strategy

From a biological pest management standpoint, epidemic diseases models have become important tools in control of pest populations. This paper deals with an impulsive delay epidemic disease model with stage-structure and a general form of the incidence rate concerning pest control strategy, in which the pest population is subdivided into three subgroups: pest eggs, susceptible pests, infectious pests that do not attack crops. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain the exact periodic susceptible pest-eradication solution of the system and observe that the susceptible pest-eradication periodic solution is globally attractive, provided that the amount of infective pests released periodically is larger than some critical value. When the amount of infective pests released is less than another critical value, the system is shown to be permanent, which implies that the trivial susceptible pest-eradication solution loses its attractivity. Our results indicate that besides the release amount of infective pests, the incidence rate, time delay and impulsive period can have great effects on the dynamics of our system.     

Dynamic analysis of a pest management SEI model with saturation incidence concerning impulsive control strategy

According to biological strategy for pest control, we investigate the dynamic behavior of a pest management SEI model with saturation incidence concerning impulsive control strategy-periodic releasing infected pests at fixed times. We prove that all solutions of the system are uniformly ultimately bounded and there exists a globally asymptotically stable pest-eradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than some critical value. When the impulsive period is larger than some critical value, the stability of the pest-eradication periodic solution is lost; the system is uniformly permanent. Thus, we can use the stability of the positive periodic solution and its period to control insect pests at acceptably low levels. Numerical results show that the system we consider can take on various kinds of periodic fluctuations and several types of attractor coexistence and is dominated by period-doubling cascade, symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation, quasi-periodic oscillate, chaos, and non-unique dynamics.     

OPTIMAL STRATEGY FOR ERADICATION OF MULTIPLE POPULATIONS USING THE STERILE INSECT TECHNIQUE

Sterile insect technique (SIT) provides an attractive alternative to chemical pesticides for insect pest eradication. Because mass rearing facilities are expensive both to construct and to maintain, project managers have a limited number of sterile insects to use in any single eradication campaign. The problem of availability of sufficient numbers of sterile insects can be magnified when two or more independent pest infestations occur at the same time. In this paper we present the results of a modeling study in which dynamic programming is used to compute the optimal allocation strategy for release of sterile insects to control two independent infestations of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wied.) (medfly). We assume that a fixed number of sterile flies are available per week. Both deterministic and stochastic analyses are presented.     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A fractional order epidemic model and simulation for avian influenza dynamics

We present a nonlinear fractional order epidemic model to investigate the spreading dynamical behavior of the avian influenza. The population of the model contains susceptible individuals, asymptomatic but infective latent individuals, and infective individuals. We first establish the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and positive invariance of the solution, then we study the reproduction number of the model and the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium. We observe that the reproduction number varies with the order of the fractional derivative ν. In terms of epidemics, this suggests that varying ν induces a change in the avian's epidemic status. Furthermore, we derive the sufficient conditions for the existence and the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we carry out some numerical simulations to validate the analytical results. We find from simulations that the solution of the fractional order model tends to a stationary state over a longer period of time with decreasing the value of the fractional derivative, and the size of epidemic decreases with decreasing ν.     

具有垂直传染和接触传染的传染病模型的稳定性研究

本文研究了一类具有垂直传染和接触传染的传染病模型.利用常微分方程定性与稳定性方法,分析了该模型非负平衡点的存在性及其局部稳定性.同时,利用LaSalle不变性原理和通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数,获得了平凡平衡点、无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.结果表明当基本再生数小于等于1时,所有种群趋于灭绝;当基本再生数大于1和病毒主导再生数小于1时,病毒很快被清除;当基本再生数大于1和病毒主导再生数大于1以及满足一定条件时,病毒持续流行并将成为一种地方病.     

Fuzzy epidemic model for the transmission of worms in computer network

An e-epidemic SIRS (susceptible–infectious–recovered–susceptible) model for the fuzzy transmission of worms in computer network is formulated. We have analyzed the comparison between classical basic reproduction number and fuzzy basic reproduction number, that is, when both coincide and when both differ. The three cases of epidemic control strategies of worms in the computer network–low, medium, and, high–are analyzed, which may help us to understand the attacking behavior and also may lead to control of worms. Numerical methods are employed to solve and simulate the system of equations developed.