经济增长转型与就业促进

创造就业机会,解决失业问题,已经成为中国政府亟待解决的首要经济发展目标。本文深入分析了改革开放以来经济增长与就业增长之间、资本增长与就业增长之间、工资增长与就业增长之间的关系,并进一步深讨了经济转轨各个阶段就业模式的变化,以及正规就业与非正规就业对就业增长的影响。在此基础上,作者明确指出,经济增长与投资增长对扩大就业的作用正逐渐削弱,宏观经济政策与就业政策的改革也不足以彻底缓解就业压力,解决失业问题的关键在于实现经济增长模式从"经济增长优先"向"就业增长优先"型的转变,正确处理和协调劳动力密集型产业与资本密集型产业之间、劳工利益与资本利益之间、扩大内需与创造就业之间的关系。     

金融危机通过对外贸易渠道对我国经济增长和就业的影响分析

美国次贷危机引发的金融危机通过对外贸易渠道对我国经济增长和就业产生了较大影响,有效的测算出其对各产业部门不同程度的影响,对于我国保持经济增长和稳定就业有着非常重要的意义.阐述了金融危机影响下我国对外贸易和就业的现状,构建了金融危机通过对外贸易途径影响我国经济和就业的投入产出测度模型,利用2002年1月至2009年4月的数据实证测算了此次金融危机通过对外对外贸易渠道对各产业部门的产出的直接影响和完全影响、增加值的完全影响以及就业的完全影响,并提出相应的政策建议.     

基于投入占用产出模型和SDA方法的数字经济影响就业机理研究

随着数字经济的快速发展,数字经济领域吸纳的就业规模不断扩大,对中国实现更高质量就业和共同富裕产生重要影响.结合中国区域经济发展不均衡的现状,针对区域层面、尤其是边疆欠发达地区开展数字经济对就业的影响机理研究,对于在新时期实施就业优先战略具有重要意义.文章构建了反映区域数字经济特点的不区分进口就业投入占用产出模型,并运用结构分解方法深入分析就业变化,为深入研究分析区域数字经济发展对就业的影响机理提供理论支持;以新疆为例实证分析了数字经济对就业的影响效应,表明新疆数字经济产业的发展能够带动更多其他行业的就业增长,尤其是在消费、投资、出口、国内省外流出、技术变迁方面,数字经济的发展已经成为促进新疆就业增长的重要动力源,对于在新时期实施就业优先战略,确保边疆巩固、边疆发展和边境安全具有重要理论和实践价值.     

中国农村正规金融与非正规金融对农民收入增长关系的比较研究

利用1995-2012年农民人均纯收入、农村正规金融融资额和非正规金融融资额的时间序列数据,分别构建农民收入与农村正规金融和非正规金融相关联的A1和A2系统,实证分析了我国农村正规金融和非正规金融对农民收入增长的影响情况.研究结果表明,农村正规金融和非正规金融同农民人均纯收入存在长期稳定的正向关系,在促进农民增收的效率上,农村非正规金融大于正规金融.但是农村正规金融和非正规金融不是农民收入的格兰杰原因,相反农民收入是农村正规金融和非正规金融的格兰杰原因.     

国际金融危机对我国就业的影响分析

利用区分加工出口的非竞争型投入占用产出模型,从受国际金融危机影响最为直接的出口、投资角度出发,测算了国际金融危机对我国就业的影响.测算结果显示:最近一年金融危机对我国就业影响是逐步加剧的;重点行业影响较为集中;由于我国宏观调控政策的及时准确,刺激经济计划的有效实施在很大程度上抵消了金融危机的影响.     

天山北坡经济带农户借款行为的影响因素研究

基于对天山北坡经济带450个家庭的调查数据,通过构建双变量logistic模型,对该地区农户正规金融与非正规金融借款行为的影响因素进行估算.研究得到以下基本结论:1)影响农户借款行为的关键性和主要因素是农户家庭的特征;2)金融环境对农户借款行为影响显著;3)受民族聚居的影响,民族这一因素对地区农户借款的可获得性有所差异,对非正规金融借款行为的影响度高于对正规金融借款行为的影响.     

奖惩机制下闭环供应链非正规渠道社会效应研究

针对闭环供应链非正规渠道在促进资源回收再利用的同时又对环境造成二次污染的情况,给出资源回收当量指标以综合考量渠道资源回收和再造污染效应,利用数学优化和数值仿真方法对比分析存在政府奖惩机制下非正规渠道的经济效应和资源回收效应,获得了非正规渠道积极社会效应的通用定理以及不同再造回收率和奖惩强度下非正规渠道社会效应的特点,给出了政府治理非正规渠道的参考建议和分析方法。     

完备Khler流形上Khler-Ricci流的局部Harnack估计

本文首先给出非正规化Khler-Ricci流下曲率的发展方程,然后得到了关于曲率的Harnack量在满足曲率局部条件下所产生的一个特殊项CNS.通过对CNS的估计,得到了完备Khler流形上关于Khler-Ricci流的局部Harnack不等式.最后,作为主要定理的应用,我们将结果推广到数量曲率的情形.     

改进BP神经网络及其在陕西就业预测中的应用

就业是一个非常重要的社会和经济统计指标.世界各国政府都非常重视就业问题,将增加就业率作为政府的工作目标.要想解决就业矛盾,就应该对就业问题的未来发展趋势有一个清醒的认识,从而做出正确的决策.本文提出了一种基于因果关系理论、协整理论用于控制与预测的改进BP神经网络,并将其应用于陕西省就业的控制和预测中.     

多元非正规样本定理

本文研究了多元指数型整函数在非等距节点的Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund型不等式.据此,得到了多元非正规样本定理.     

Stability analysis of the Kaldor model with time delays: monetary policy and government budget constraint

We analyze the model with monetary policy based on the Kaldor's business cycle theory. We introduce the government sector, which conducts the fiscal policy and monetary policy to stabilize the economy. The execution of such a policy needs legislation, and generally, the legislative process is time consuming. We investigate in this paper how the fiscal policy with a time delay affects stability of the economy.We assume that the monetary policy is conducted as a countermeasure of the fiscal deficit by the government, and we consider two extreme cases, namely money finance and bond finance case. In each case, when no time delay exists for the fiscal policy, Keynesian fiscal policy is the preferred method for preventing the economic fluctuations. However, it is not so simple when the time delay exists in the fiscal policy. There exists the policy, which stabilizes the economy under any time delay in the money finance case. On the other hand, in the bond finance case, such a policy does not exist and as the time delay increases the economy becomes unstable. However in both cases, contrary to the expectations of the government, the stronger the fiscal policy, the more unstable the economy becomes for the short time delay.     

我国就业的影响因素分析

在经典就业理论的分析基础上,结合中国实际情况,从宏观因素、财政政策、货币政策、结构性因素、人力资本和其他随机因素等六大方面提炼出可能影响就业的指标.分别选取指标的全国年度数据和季度数据,运用逐步回归方法提取出影响整体就业情况的长期短期因素.运用多元回归模型对年度指标进一步进行长期关系分析;采用VAR模型对季度数据进一步进行短期关系分析;并运用所建立模型进行了预测.     

Optimal choice of fiscal policy instruments in a stochastic IS–LM model

This article derives optimal fiscal rules within a stochastic model of Keynesian type in the context of Poole (1970). By using optimal control theory and applying the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, we extend the original Poole results concerning the output stabilization properties of monetary policy to the case of fiscal policy. In particular, we look for the optimal setting of government expenditure and lump-sum taxation in the case that the fiscal authority wishes to keep the product close to a reference value and that the economy is assumed to be affected by stochastic disturbances of real and/or monetary type. According to our findings an expenditure rule is preferable to a taxation rule when the two instruments are independent. The introduction of a fiscal budget rule can make taxation preferable under a certain model parametrization.     

The effect of depreciation allowances on the timing of investment and government tax revenue

We develop a model of the behavior of a potential investor (under uncertainty and in a fiscal environment) who wishes to invest into a project in the real sector of an economy and faces a timing problem. We find an optimal solution within this model and examine the dependence of the tax revenue from the newly created firm on the depreciation policy. It is shown that there exists a domain in the space of the parameters of the investment project where both the tax revenue and the incentives can be increased by using the depreciation policy.     

一个随机开放经济中的财富偏好和财政政策

本文把财富偏好结合进入一个开放经济的随机模型.通过对生产技术、效用函数和随机冲击做了确定的假设,我们得到了许多显式解,包括居民的总消费、期望经济增长率和所有资产的均衡回报;进一步讨论了财政政策和财富偏好怎样影响经济增长和社会福利.     

A dynamic analysis of protection and environmental policy in a small trading developing country

We analyze a dynamic model of protection and environmental policy in a small trading developing country (DC). The DC government protects the import competing (and the polluting) sector of the economy with a tariff. The employment and output effects of three different pollution taxes are analyzed. These taxes incorporate different assumptions about the DC government's ability to commit to its announced policy. First, we describe the taxes, we study the dependence of these taxes on the tariff, and we show that in general an activist environmental policy is called for, irrespective of the length of time to which the government can commit to its announced policy. Second, we identify a situation in which the conduct of environmental policy raises welfare unambiguously, and the situations in which it does not do so. Finally, we show that the time inconsistency of certain optimal programs can prevent the DC government from achieving its environmental and employment objectives.     

Fiscal policy lags and income adjustment processes

The interest in the impact of fiscal policy lags on economic stability increased in the last decade. Several studies have been made on delays either in the government expenditure or in the tax system, where lags exist between the accrual and the payment of taxes. Nevertheless there is in the literature no model where time delays in government expenditures and in tax revenues are considered together as it happens in the real world. In this paper we remedied this defect and proposed a macro-dynamic model where two delays appear: the first pertains to the public expenditure, the second, to the tax revenue. The resulting system of delayed differential equations is studied qualitatively and numerically. The analysis suggests that only particular combinations of the two delays make the system stable. Prevalently the system is unstable and chaotic motions may arise. This implies that the economy may need appropriate structural changes in the public sector to improve fiscal policy outcomes in such a way they may really be consistent with their stabilization purposes.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach

The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is a crucial issue in a highly integrated economic area as the European Union. We investigate to which extent the EMU, that introduced a common monetary policy and restrictions on fiscal policy at the national level, benefits from macroeconomic policy cooperation due to the various interactions, spillovers and externalities from national macroeconomic policies. To study the effects of policy cooperation we compare the impact of three alternative policy regimes in a stylized dynamic model of the EMU: (i) non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policies, (ii) partial cooperation, and (iii) full cooperation both in symmetric and asymmetric settings where countries differ in structural characteristics, policy preferences and/or bargaining power. The paper introduces an analysis of coalitional behaviour in a dynamic setting into the literature.     

Initial basis for a national planning model

Analysis of pending national policy takes on greater importance each day to supply policy makers with much needed data on the overall economic effect such policies will have on total employment, income, output, tax revenues, and the general price level throughout the economy. This short paper examines the potential for integration of existing modeling technology into a meaningful national planning model to provide a sound set of economic indices leading to enhanced market efficiency and resource use. Initial efforts at integrated modeling and analysis are described, together with indications of their levels of success in replicating the existing economic environment. Emphasis is placed on determination of shadow prices in a growing economy and their incorporation into the systematic development of a national planning model.     

Government Debt, Budget Surplus, and Popularity of Politicians

This paper sets up a positive model of government behavior to determine the optimal fiscal policy of a politician who aims to reach a certain target level of national debt and remain popular at the same time. We model explicitly the response of the citizens to the fiscal policy set by the politician. To that end, we assume that citizens form an equilibrium acceptance rate of savings and adjust dynamically this savings rate to the currently prevailing levels of government debt and primary surplus. The difference between the equilibrium acceptance rate of savings as formed by the public and the fiscal policy actually chosen by the politician determines the politician popularity. Using the Pontryagin maximum principle, we derive the optimal level of the fiscal policy and investigate its local stability depending on the parameters of the model. We show that cyclical strategies [that is, phases of saving (primary surplus) and spending (primary deficit)], may be optimal.