基于因子分析的乳制品消费者质量安全信任研究

消费者对乳制品质量安全信心,既是重大的民生问题,也是重大的经济社会问题.乳制品安全关系到消费者的健康,近年来我国乳制品安全事件频发,极大地影响了国内消费者的信心,也使乳制品行业受到重创.以我国大部分省市的消费者为研究对象,以消费者信任、行为等相关理论为依据,采用问卷调查的方式采集数据,对回收的有效问卷,通过信度、效度、消费者特征分析和因子分析方法,对我国目前乳制品消费者质量安全信任水平进行测度与分析.研究表明:企业品牌形象、产品质量口感、产品包装、消费者对食品安全的信任、感知价值与满意度等因素对乳制品消费者质量安全信任水平的影响较大;总体来说,我国消费者对于乳制品的信心偏低.针对目前我国乳制品质量安全的实际情况,从社会各主体角度出发,提出了乳制品消费者质量安全信任提升的对策建议.     

基于SIS模型的共享经济消费传染机制研究

共享经济作为当今社会的一种新业态和新模式,其发展路径和演化规律,对于经济增长的良态运行具有重要的现实意义.基于优化的SIS模型,考虑感知收益和感知风险对共享经济参与行为的影响,探索共享经济消费传染的内在机理、扩散过程和变化规律.研究结果表明:共享经济协同消费传染的扩散轨迹,呈"S"型的增长趋势;平均有效接触数σ正向积极影响共享经济消费扩散的速度、范围和强度;而且平均有效接触数σ与促进因素λf成正比,与阻滞因素u g成反比.针对共享经济消费传染的机制特征,提出三点促进共享经济良态运行的参考建议,即:加大有益宣传,提高消费者的认可依许;提升科技创新,增加消费者的感知收益;完善监管机制,减少消费者的感知风险.     

基于不同产品质量安全水平的企业生产决策优化及相应消费者效用

基于消费者对产品平均质量安全水平的预期不同,在企业可以同时选择生产高、低质量安全水平产品的条件下,分别建立了完全垄断与完全竞争市场中的企业利润最大化模型,比较分析了企业供给产品的数量、利润及相应的消费者效用,得出消费者质量安全水平敏感度、产品需求价格敏感度及产品的高、低质量安全水平对上述决策的影响.据此,结合我国国情,为中国产品质量安全水平的提升提供了参考与启示.     

运用价值工程 增加经济效益

消费者购买产品(商品),不是为了得到产品这个实体,而是为了获得产品的功能.只有满足消费者所需要的功能,他才愿意为此支付相应的费用.生产者的生产,总是要讲经济效果的,如何以最少的投入,获得最多的产出,为企业增加经济效益,这是生产者需要研究的课题.重庆洗衣机二厂从满足消费者所需要的功能出发,运用价值工程,不断改进产品的设计方案,以较低的成本费用,实现了用户的要求,把消费者与生产者的愿望统一起来.该厂一九八五年因此而节约钢材687吨,油漆5.1吨,聚丙稀树脂100吨,增加利润165.46万元,从而保证了产量和利润都成倍增长.一九八五年与一…     

一种类型的大经济的均衡存在性——DebrcU积分的一个应用

本文以Debrcu积分为基本工具,在生产者测度空间和消费者测度空间的框架之下,证明了具有正价格体系的竞争均衡的存在。一般经济均衡问题一直是数理经济学的中心议题之一。古典经济学家亚当·斯密首先以“看不见的手”道破了商品经济的重要规律:价格作为中心联系和调节着消费者和生产者的行为,使整个经济向着供需平衡的方向运动。自从1954年K·J.Arrow和G·Debreu运用现代数学手段给出一般经济均衡的存在定理的严格叙述和证明之后,这一领域异常活跃。例如,1964年R.J.Aunann提出了经纪人无原子测度空间,W.HiIdenbrand于1970年研究了带有生产和消费者测度空间的经济结构。本文在模型中同时引入生产者测度空间和消费者测度空间,并以Debreu积分给出超需集映,在这样一个经济结构中证明了具有正价格体系的竞争均衡的存在。     

产能过剩下“京东白条”的供应链模型分析北大核心CSCD

"京东白条"是基于供应链关系的消费信贷,将供应链中金融行为从供应链企业延伸至最终消费端.运用产能过剩刻画供过于求市场环境下的激烈竞争,构建了京东白条模式下的供应链模型,分析了随机需求下零售商信用与消费者信用对产能过剩供应链的作用规律,深入探究金融行为通过供应链关系对实体经济的影响.研究发现:产能过剩降低供应链的效益及效率;零售商信用无法刺激需求也无法改善供应链绩效,其实质是供应链内部的资金融通,无法化解产能过剩;而类似于京东白条模式的消费者信用能有效化解产能过剩,同时能增强供应链捕捉市场机会的能力.研究为消费金融的实施提供了理论支撑.     

消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数“倒挂”之谜

消费者价格指数(Consumer Price Index,CPI)与生产者价格指数(Producer Price Index,PPI)是我国最重要的两个价格指数,一般说来,CPI与PPI应当是同步变化的.但是自2000年以来,CPI与PPI出现了多次"倒挂"现象,这无疑对当前经济通胀情况的判断带来了挑战.采用最新的X-13-ARIMASEATS方法对我国的CPI与PPI指数进行季节调整;在谱分析的基础上采用BK滤波方法将其趋势-循环因素进行分解得到趋势因素与循环因素.研究后发现是经济周期导致了"倒挂"现象.     

基于熵权法的农产品流通效率模糊综合评价研究——以河南省为例

为了解决因生产者、消费者与中间流通商的利益博弈而出现的农产品流通环节的卖难买贵问题.在考虑指标数据可获得性、评价方法科学性以及指标体系全面性的的情况下,基于2011-2017年河南省统计年鉴和中国统计年鉴数据,建立了一种基于熵权法和模糊综合评价方法的农产品流通效率组合评价模型,并对河南省2010-2016年农产品流通效率进行了实证研究.结果表明,2010-2016年河南省农产品流通效率最大隶属度逐年递增,趋势与熵权法中求得的河南省农产品流通效率综合得分变化相一致.体现了该组合模型在农产品流通效率评价中的适应性与准确性.     

产能过剩下“京东白条”的供应链模型分析

"京东白条"是基于供应链关系的消费信贷,将供应链中金融行为从供应链企业延伸至最终消费端.运用产能过剩刻画供过于求市场环境下的激烈竞争,构建了京东白条模式下的供应链模型,分析了随机需求下零售商信用与消费者信用对产能过剩供应链的作用规律,深入探究金融行为通过供应链关系对实体经济的影响.研究发现:产能过剩降低供应链的效益及效率;零售商信用无法刺激需求也无法改善供应链绩效,其实质是供应链内部的资金融通,无法化解产能过剩;而类似于京东白条模式的消费者信用能有效化解产能过剩,同时能增强供应链捕捉市场机会的能力.研究为消费金融的实施提供了理论支撑.     

生鲜农产品双渠道供应链库存合作策略研究

随着我国"互联网+农业"战略的不断推进,生鲜农产品的网络销售渠道呈现出快速增长的趋势,但是生鲜农产品易腐易损、贮藏周期短、流通损耗大的特点在一定程度上加大了其网络销售渠道的运作难度.为此,从生鲜农产品传统销售渠道与网络销售渠道的库存协调与合作的视角,针对生鲜农产品双渠道供应链系统的特性,运用系统动力学的理论与方法构建了双渠道供应链库存独立系统、单级库存合作系统和多级库存合作系统的动力学模型.通过系统模型的仿真模拟,结果表明零售商与网络配送点进行库存紧急调拨的单级库存合作系统在牛鞭效应、服务水平和供应链总成本三个指标上表现最优,在供应链总库存指标上表现次优,整体上是最优的,并针对模型仿真结果,有针对性的提出对策与建议.     

Integrated modeling of extended agro-food supply chains: A systems approach

The current intense food production-consumption is one of the main sources of environmental pollution and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Organic farming is a potential way to reduce environmental impacts by excluding synthetic pesticides and fertilizers from the process. Despite ecological benefits, it is unlikely that conversion to organic can be financially viable for farmers, without additional support and incentives from consumers. This study models the interplay between consumer preferences and socio-environmental issues related to agriculture and food production. We operationalize the novel concept of extended agro-food supply chain and simulate adaptive behavior of farmers, food processors, retailers, and customers. Not only the operational factors (e.g., price, quantity, and lead time), but also the behavioral factors (e.g., attitude, perceived control, social norms, habits, and personal goals) of the food suppliers and consumers are considered in order to foster organic farming. We propose an integrated approach combining agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamics modeling for a case of wine supply chain. Findings demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model over the traditional sustainable supply chain models in incorporating the feedback between consumers and producers and analyzing management scenarios that can urge farmers to expand organic agriculture. Results further indicate that demand-side participation in transition pathways towards sustainable agriculture can become a time-consuming effort if not accompanied by the middle actors between consumers and farmers. In practice, our proposed model may serve as a decision-support tool to guide evidence-based policymaking in the food and agriculture sector.     

考虑参考质量效应的“农超对接”供应链动态质量改进策略

在“农超对接”背景下,以“农村合作社+超市”组成的二级供应链为研究对象,考虑消费者参考质量效应对需求的影响,利用微分博弈理论分别求得了成本分担契约、非合作以及集中决策三种情形下供应链双方的最优均衡策略及利润。研究发现:消费者参考质量效应能够激励农村合作社提高农产品质量水平,同时缓解了超市的广告宣传压力,使得超市的广告宣传水平降低;当商誉-参考质量转换程度较大时,决策者会选择以低商誉战略来维持消费者合理的农产品质量期望值,形成了农产品质量低,成员收入少的不良经营环境;成本分担契约不仅提升了农产品质量水平,同时也实现了超市和农村合作社双方利润的帕累托改善,能够缓解超市面对劣质农产品束手无策的不良局面。     

Supply chain models for small agricultural enterprises

Small agricultural production enterprises have been under immense economic pressures for many years. It is our belief that a favorable impact can be made on small farm enterprises through the development and implementation of models that address their basic needs and open new markets and production initiatives. In this paper, we develop models for supply chain issues facing small farmers, solve them, and suggest their uses and future considerations. In particular, we consider B2C and B2B aspects of an agricultural supply chain model. The B2C aspect is considered in direct farmer to consumer sales in retail markets, while the B2B aspect is represented by transactions through agricultural cooperatives. We evaluate key strategic decisions such as whether to form cooperative agreements with other farmers and if so, how large to make the cooperative, and the production quantities at which farmers would like to sell directly to customers with or without using the cooperative.     

农村劳动力资源可持续发展的层次分析

解决“三农”问题的关键是增加农民收入,而增收的主要办法,一是实现农业产业化增加农业收入;二是进行农村劳动力转移增加非农收入.大量的劳动力涌入大中城市对部分行业就业进行了关键的补偿,但同时对城市人口就业也造成了一定的压力,因此能否进行农村劳动力资源可持续的开发成为制约经济、社会、环境等协调发展的重要因素.文章根据可持续发展评估体系,把影响农村劳动力资源可持续发展的系统分为经济、社会、环境、支撑四个子系统,根据各子系统对其可持续开发的影响建立指标体系,用层次分析法分析得到各指标的权重,根据权重制定相应的农村劳动力资源可持续开发的策略.     

中国农民消费行为及影响因素分析

本文运用适用预期的消费函数模型,对中国农民的消费行为影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明:农村居民消费的变动呈现出对收入变动的过度敏感,并且农民存在消费习惯,收入的不确定性进一步抑制了农民的消费。本文又做了进一步研究,发现受灾面积,农业支出对收入的影响不大,而农产品生产价格指数是造成收入不确定性的主要因素。     

Capacity and price setting for dispersed,time-sensitive customer segments

We consider joint pricing and capacity decisions for a facility serving heterogeneous consumers that span a continuous range of locations, and are sensitive to time delays. Within this context, we analyze two contrasting service strategies: segmentation and pooling. Consumer segments differ with respect to their reservation prices and time sensitivities, and are dispersed over a single distance dimension. The firm serves these consumers using a process that we initially model as an M/M/1 queuing system. We analyze profit-maximizing price and capacity levels for a monopolist, and contrast the optimal segmentation and pooling policies. We find that when consumers are time sensitive, and can expect queuing delays at the firm’s facility (due to random arrival and service times), then scale economies from pooling can outweigh segmentation benefits. Yet, segmentation outperforms pooling when consumer segments differ substantively, in which case the firm can use capacity as a lever to price discriminate between the segments. Moreover, by contrasting a dedicated-services strategy, which directly targets specific segments and serves them separately, with the alternative of allowing consumers to self-select, we find that self-selection has a moderate negative influence on profits. We also examine the profit impact of employing alternative queuing systems, and find that a hybrid strategy based on a prioritized queuing discipline, that combines elements of segmentation (by offering different waiting times) and pooling (by sharing capacity across consumer segments), can outperform both the pure segmentation and pooling strategies.     

A bottom-up biofuel market equilibrium model for policy analysis

Although the biofuel market remains at its early stage, it is expected to play an important role in climate policy in the future in the transportation sector. In this paper, we develop a bottom-up equilibrium model to study the supply chain of the biofuel market, explicitly formulating the interactions among farmers, biofuel producers, blenders, and consumers. The model is built on optimization problems faced by each entity and considers decisions associated with farmers’ land allocation, biomass transportation, biofuel production, and biofuel blending. As such, the model is capable of and appropriate for policy analysis related to interactions among multiple stakeholders. For example, the model can be used to analyze the impacts of biofuel policies on market outcomes, pass-through of taxes or subsidies, and distribution of consumers’ or producers’ surplus. The equilibrium model can also serve as an analytical tool to study the price impact of biomass, biofuel, and Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for biofuels. We demonstrate the model by applying it to a case study of Iowa. We specifically focus on the effects of market structure, i.e., points-of-implementation on subsidies on market outcomes. The results indicate that some entities can benefit greatly at the expense of others when they possess market power. Government oversight is therefore needed to safeguard the development of the sector.     

基于供应链视角的政府扶贫效率研究

在电商扶贫中,政府常采用农业技术推广、政府采购、投入补贴三种农业帮扶模式,何种方式更有效是一个非常重要的问题。本文基于供应链视角,使用主从博弈模型对比分析供应链成员的决策行为,之后从农户收益最大化角度分析政府扶贫的效率,并讨论应用情景。结果表明:政府进行基础设施建设与农业帮扶均可提高农户收入;消费者的扶贫偏好会增加农产品价格与农户利润,且能够提高三种帮扶模式的效率;农户投入成本较小时,投入补贴模式扶贫效率最高,而农技推广与政府采购模式更稳定,在农户投入成本较高时更有效;政府资金有限时,投入补贴模式效率最高,当资金量中等时,农技推广模式效率最高,若资金比较充裕,则政府采购模式较为有效。     

TOWARD CONTROLLING NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION OF GROUNDWATER: A HIERARCHICAL POLICY FORMULATION GAME

An integrative approach to formulating agricultural policy instrument levels is suggested for controlling groundwater quality deterioration from agricultural chemical-use, while reconciling the conflicting goals of primary interest groups in the farm policy process. The paper develops a Stackelberg game-theoretic model of public policy formation that simultaneously determines endogenous price supports and nitrogen-use quota, as well as the optimal permissible water contamination. The analysis distinguishes between the private and social opportunity costs of producing agricultural crops and using groundwater as a repository for nitrate leachate from agricultural sources. It is recognized that the social benefit of using nitrogen in agriculture is less than the private benefit to producers. Private and social benefits, as well as optimal production and pollution solutions, will vary as the relative weights which policymakers attach to different social constituents change. The method developed in this paper may be applicable to any policy process in which policymakers exercise indirect influence over industrial production decisions through economic instruments.     

Efficiency and sustainability assessment for a group of farmers in the Brazilian Amazon

The aim of this paper is to use DEA models to evaluate sustainability in agriculture. Several variables are taken into account and the resulting efficiency is measured by comparison. The performance of family farms is analysed here (variables: farmed area, work force, and production). As agricultural sustainability depends on the maintenance of systems of production for long periods of time, the models were run for the years of 1986 and 2002. Tiered DEA models were used to group farmers in sustainability categories. Non-parametric regression models were used to identify the factors affecting the efficiency measurements. All the results indicate that the majority of the farmers increased their efficiency along the time. These improvements may support the existence of sustainability.