人口密集场所紧急疏散问题的数学模型及其优化解

在人口密集场所(馆)观众席位区及疏散通道分布模拟图的基础上,着眼于紧急疏散方案制定中的主要问题,分析人群疏散过程中的主要矛盾,建立了属于非线性规划问题的人员紧急疏散的数学模型.在转化为整数线性规划问题后,可用分枝定界法求解,并用L ingo计算程序实现.所求得的最优解为布局比较简单的场馆制定紧急疏散方案提供了依据.     

应急避难场所选址问题的多目标规划模型及算法

城市应急避难场所选址问题是城市应急管理中首要解决的问题,应急避难场所的选址决策对处置突发事件应急的成败有至关重要的意义.目前国内外学者已经从不同的研究角度提出了避难场所规划的原则和方法.绝大多数国内外学者在研究设置避难场所时没有考虑在疏散过程中不同线路的通行速度问题,另外避难场所基本都是在现有的节点中选择若干个节点来建立避难场所,这与实际应急避难场所规划是不一样的.主要问题在综合考虑了避难场所个数、疏散时间、人员分配的平衡性、在疏散过程中不同线路的速度构建数学模型.针对所建模型,设计了求解该问题的一个启发式算法.最后结合实际案例来验证模型和算法的有效性.     

布谷鸟搜索算法在人群疏散中的应用研究

针对阶梯教室及大型场馆应急疏散的路径优化问题.提出了一种布谷鸟搜索算法的疏散模型,通过对原有算法的分析改进,设计特殊目标函数,使之适应求解人群疏散.最后将方法应用到多障碍物、多通道、多出口、多灾害源的复杂场景实现近千人的仿真实验.仿真结果表明,方法直观地展现整个人群疏散的运动过程和在多个场景中都取得了较好地路径规划效果,并开发两个疏散工具为人群疏散演习提供了平台和疏散方案.     

紧急疏散中最优抗出错路径选择模型与算法

疏散路径选择是紧急疏散中的重要问题，为了减小疏散人在紧急疏散过程中由于路径选择错误带来的损失，提出一对起讫点间最优抗出错路径选择模型。给出路径出错系数的定义，用以度量疏散人路径选择错误带来的疏散效率损失，并且设计了求解最优抗出错路径的DAE算法，证明该算法的时间复杂度为O（ mn2）。结果表明，选择最优抗出错路径作为疏散路径，能够有效地抵抗由于疏散人路径选择错误带来的损失，对提高突发事件下的疏散效率具有实际意义。     

震后大型商场人群疏散演化博弈分析

地震发生后,为了减少地震带来的损失,大型商场人群需要及时进行疏散.主要对商场中疏散出口位置上的疏散行为进行研究.首先分析了地震后商场人群的疏散场景;然后从疏散心理效用角度构建了疏散行为模型,并基于演化博弈分析人群疏散行为演化情况,结果表明,自组织情况下,商场人群不能向有序疏散演化;而通过商场工作人员引导疏散,修正模型,其引导力度决定着疏散演化的结果;最后,通过仿真分析,说明商场地震人群疏散演化博弈模型的适用性.     

需求不确定条件下社区应急疏散协作调度优化模型

质量安全、自然灾害、公共卫生等突发事件社区应急疏散中的灾民数量具有不确定性,但目前的研究很少关注多种运输方式协作的应急疏散中灾民数量的不确定性。针对灾民数量的不确定性,以疏散灾民数量最大化,以及疏散成本最小化作为优化目标,,该文构建了多种运输方式协作的社区应急疏散模糊机会约束规划模型。在模型求解时,论文使用自适应遗传算子对多目标遗传算法进行改进,以提高算法优化效率。最后,论文使用算例对提出的模型进行验证,证明了该模型和方法可以有效完成需求不确定条件下的社区应急疏散协作调度优化工作。     

基于系统动力学的地下空间大规模人群疏散模型

基于系统动力学提出了建立兼顾模拟精度和模拟效率的地下空间群体疏散模型的新思路.借助专业软件Vensim进行定量模拟,在总初始人数为分别为350、400、450、500、1000、2000、4000七种工况下,模拟结果与专业模拟软件Pathfinder的模拟结果相近,且计算速度更快.该模型可再现"快即是慢"等群体疏散行为中的典型现象.通过对大规模群体疏散过程中的关键影响因素"总初始人数""恐慌状态"进行分析,发现了以下现象:1)总初始人数过多会导致系统疏散能力降低,疏散结束时间大幅滞后;2)恐慌程度过低会导致系统疏散效率长时间保持在较低水平,不利于被困人群的及时疏散.     

商业建筑人员疏散系统模型的构建与决策

针对我国商业建筑火灾事故频发、群死群伤事故严重的现状,对全国商业建筑特大火灾案例进行统计调查,建立人员疏散系统模型数据采用贝叶斯统计分析方法进行分析,克服了火灾数据缺乏、且难以进行大量重复实验的困难,得到各基本事件发生概率的条件期望估计与方差.通过误差传播对系统进行敏感性分析.通过对系统故障树的分析,得到在火灾发生情况下商业建筑人员疏散失败的概率及方差,并进行系统决策.     

学生公寓楼内人员应急疏散的数学模型

针对高等院校的特点,就发生火灾、地震等紧急情况下,学生公寓楼内人员的疏散状况,建立了就近原则逃生、左右分流双线并列逃生以及反三角("▼")逃生等3种数学模型.经过对比、分析、计算,提出了如何在最短时间内进行应急疏散的具体措施与对策.     

基于社会力模型的多出口场馆人员疏散问题

考虑基于社会力模型的多出口场馆的人员疏散问题.首先对社会力模型进行改进,包括个体之间的相互作用力和他们的相对位置有关,个体的期望速度随时间变化等.然后,针对多出口情形,定义动态变化的视野范围,综合考虑个体到出口的距离、个体视野范围内的人数和人群密度等因素,建立最优化模型描述个体选择目标出口的过程.最后,仿真结果表明,上述模型可以模拟出多出口的体育场馆中的疏散场景,该模型可用于体育场馆的建设评估及为现场指挥预案的制定提供依据.     

A dynamic logistics coordination model for evacuation and support in disaster response activities

This paper describes an integrated location-distribution model for coordinating logistics support and evacuation operations in disaster response activities. Logistics planning in emergencies involves dispatching commodities (e.g., medical materials and personnel, specialised rescue equipment and rescue teams, food, etc.) to distribution centres in affected areas and evacuation and transfer of wounded people to emergency units. During the initial response time it is also necessary to set up temporary emergency centers and shelters in affected areas to speed up medical care for less heavily wounded survivors. In risk mitigation studies for natural disasters, possible sites where these units can be situated are specified according to risk based urban structural analysis. Logistics coordination in disasters involves the selection of sites that result in maximum coverage of medical need in affected areas. Another important issue that arises in such emergencies is that medical personnel who are on duty in nearby hospitals have to be re-shuffled to serve both temporary and permanent emergency units. Thus, an optimal medical personnel allocation must be determined among these units. The proposed model also considers this issue.     

Optimal building evacuation time considering evacuation routes

The main purpose of this work is to present a formulation of the building evacuation problem that incorporates evacuation routes and applies the functions developed by Nelson and McLennan [H.E. Nelson, H.A. McLennan (Eds.), Emergency Movement, The SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 1996, pp. 3.286–3.295 (Section 3/Chapter 14)] to model the movement of people. These considerations lead to significant changes in the form of the evacuation and inverse evacuation functions, so it is necessary to develop a new procedure for solving the building evacuation problem.     

Evacuation planning using multiobjective evolutionary optimization approach

In an emergency situation, evacuation is conducted in order to displace people from a dangerous place to a safer place, and it usually needs to be done in a hurry. It is necessary to prepare evacuation plans in order to have a good response in an emergency situation. A central challenge in developing an evacuation plan is in determining the distribution of evacuees into the safe areas, that is, deciding where and from which road each evacuee should go. To achieve this aim, several objective functions should be brought into consideration and need to be satisfied simultaneously, though these objective functions may often conflict with each other.     

Modeling mixed push and pull promotion flows in Manpower Planning

Manpower Planning is a useful tool for human resource management in large organizations. Classical Manpower Planning models are analytical time-discrete push and pull models. Push models are characterized by the same promotion and wastage probabilities for people within the same group. This assumption is suitable in organizations where for instance promotions are used for reasons of personnel motivation or employees are promoted after succeeding in an exam. In many organizations, people are only promoted when there are vacancies at other levels. In those cases, pull models can be used. Pull models only assume known wastage probabilities. In practice, both assumptions may occur simultaneously. In this paper, a mixed push-pull model is developed for organizations in which both types of flows are considered.     

烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究

公众撤离是烟羽应急计划区应急响应状态下的重要安全措施。本文提出一种“政府组织撤离+政府指导下的自行撤离”的撤离模式, 并基于元胞传输理论, 以最小化撤离时间为目标, 建立了公众撤离模型, 规划车辆行驶路线。运用该模型, 分析撤离时间随政府组织撤离和居民自行撤离比例变化的规律, 并运用到两个案例中, 结果显示:“政府组织撤离+政府指导下的自行撤离”模式的撤离时间小于“政府组织撤离”模式的撤离时间, 而且政府组织撤离与自行撤离之间存在一个最佳的比例结构, 使撤离时间达到相对低的水平。 关键词:烟羽应急计划区;公众撤离;元胞传输理论;模式研究;应急管理     

Modeling framework for optimal evacuation of large-scale crowded pedestrian facilities

The paper presents a simulation–optimization modeling framework for the evacuation of large-scale pedestrian facilities with multiple exit gates. The framework integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) and a microscopic pedestrian simulation–assignment model. The GA searches for the optimal evacuation plan, while the simulation model guides the search through evaluating the quality of the generated evacuation plans. Evacuees are assumed to receive evacuation instructions in terms of the optimal exit gates and evacuation start times. The framework is applied to develop an optimal evacuation plan for a hypothetical crowded exhibition hall. The obtained results show that the model converges to a superior optimal evacuation plan within an acceptable number of iterations. In addition, the obtained evacuation plan outperforms conventional plans that implement nearest-gate immediate evacuation strategies.     

A Multi-Attribute Assignment Goal-Programming Model with Incentives

A multi-attribute assignment goal-programming model is developed in this paper for the selection and assignment of transfer personnel. Attributes and incentives are used to select the correct type of people from surplus personnel and assign them to vacant positions. The model is illustrated in a simple, exemplary case problem, and the results are interpreted. The model is solved by using a sequential linear goal-programming algorithm and a mixed-integer programming subroutine.     

基于情景分析的应急疏散车辆配置模型

在情景模式影响疏散点疏散人员数量及疏散最晚完成时间限制的条件下,研究了避难所应急疏散车辆配置计划及各种情景模式下的车辆出车任务安排,以疏散车辆出车安排为下层模型,以期望疏散总时间最小化车辆配置计划为上层模型建立了车辆配置及出车任务安排的双层规划模型。设计了结合CPLEX内置算法的模拟退火算法,最后用算例进行了仿真研究。     

自然灾害区域疏散的预警优化模型研究

在可预知的灾害来临前,交通堵塞问题是影响应急疏散效率的主要因素。在灾前防御阶段,有策略的发布预警消息可以使疏散更加有秩序的进行,从而提高疏散效率。本文为区域应急疏散预案构建了应急疏散预警发布研究框架,首先建立了避难点分配模型,将其结果代入到疏散预警模型,来优化特定地区预警发布时间和类型。其中,预警模型加入了时间成分,构建成了多时段模型,并使用贪婪的启发式搜索过程求解非线性的公式。最后,通过算例分析了模型算法的应用范围及其可行性,并用模拟退火算法进行了计算,验证了本算法的有效性。本研究更改以往在同一时间通过全部渠道发布消息的方式,通过疏散预警信息的发布策略的优化,可以有效避免在区域内大规模人群同时出发所导致的交通拥堵现象,为政府制定科学的应急疏散预案提供理论和技术支持。