贝叶斯方法在养老基金资产负债管理中的应用

把一个静态资产负债管理模型———均值方差模型应用到定额给付养老金计划的资产负债管理中,在允许无风险借贷的条件下研究养老金在无风险资产和风险资产间的分配问题,用定量分析的方法求出了最优投资组合的一般形式;又针对投资收益率特征参数未知的情况,提出了矩估计和贝叶斯估计两种方法求解最优资本配置比例,将两种方法的结果与一般形式对比,分析了影响最优投资组合的因素,得知养老基金在风险资产中的投资比例与基金经理对风险的厌恶程度、风险资产的风险益酬、风险资产收益率的波动性成负相关关系;并且随决策者掌握的历史信息增加,在风险资产上的投资比例也随之增加,投资行为逐渐趋于理性化;对上述结果进行仿真,验证了结论的有效性。     

Static portfolio choice under Cumulative Prospect Theory

We derive the optimal portfolio choice for an investor who behaves according to Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). The study is done in a one-period economy with one risk-free asset and one risky asset, and the reference point corresponds to the terminal wealth arising when the entire initial wealth is invested into the risk-free asset. When it exists, the optimal holding is a function of a generalized Omega measure of the distribution of the excess return on the risky asset over the risk-free rate. It conceptually resembles Merton’s optimal holding for a CRRA expected-utility maximizer. We derive some properties of the optimal holding and illustrate our results using a simple example where the excess return has a skew-normal distribution. In particular, we show how a CPT investor is highly sensitive to the skewness of the excess return on the risky asset. In the model we adopt, with a piecewise-power value function with different shape parameters, loss aversion might be violated for reasons that are now well-understood in the literature. Nevertheless, we argue that this violation is acceptable.     

Portfolio selection in discrete time with transaction costs and power utility function: a perturbation analysis

In this article, we study a multi-period portfolio selection model in which a generic class of probability distributions is assumed for the returns of the risky asset. An investor with a power utility function rebalances a portfolio comprising a risk-free and risky asset at the beginning of each time period in order to maximize expected utility of terminal wealth. Trading the risky asset incurs a cost that is proportional to the value of the transaction. At each time period, the optimal investment strategy involves buying or selling the risky asset to reach the boundaries of a certain no-transaction region. In the limit of small transaction costs, dynamic programming and perturbation analysis are applied to obtain explicit approximations to the optimal boundaries and optimal value function of the portfolio at each stage of a multi-period investment process of any length.     

Theoretical solution versus industry standard: Optimal leverage function for CPDOs

In this paper, we derive an optimal leverage function for Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) by using stochastic control techniques. The investor’s goal is to maximise redemption of capital at maturity. The control variable of the problem is the leverage process, i.e. the time dependent notional exposure to the underlying risky index/portfolio. The control problem is solved explicitly with the help of the Legendre transform applied to the HJB equation of stochastic control. A closed form solution is given for the optimal leverage. Contrary to the industry practise, the optimal leverage derived in this paper is a non-linear, bell-shaped function of the CPDO assets value.     

Heston随机波动率市场中带VaR约束的最优投资策略

本文研究了Heston随机波动率市场下, 基于VaR约束下的动态最优投资组合问题。
假设Heston随机波动率市场由一个无风险资产和一个风险资产构成,投资者的目标为最大化其终端的期望效用。与此同时, 投资者将动态地评估其待选的投资组合的VaR风险,并将其控制在一个可接受的范围之内。本文在合理的假设下,使用动态规划的方法,来求解该问题的最优投资策略。在特定的参数范围内,利用数值方法计算出近似的最优投资策略和相应值函数, 并对结果进行了分析。     

On minimizing drawdown risks of lifetime investments

Drawdown measures the decline of portfolio value from its historic high-water mark. In this paper, we study a lifetime investment problem aiming at minimizing the risk of drawdown occurrences. Under the Black–Scholes framework, we examine two financial market models: a market with two risky assets, and a market with a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Closed-form optimal trading strategies are derived under both models by utilizing a decomposition technique on the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. We show that it is optimal to minimize the portfolio variance when the fund value is at its historic high-water mark. Moreover, when the fund value drops, the proportion of wealth invested in the asset with a higher instantaneous rate of return should be increased. We find that the instantaneous return rate of the minimum lifetime drawdown probability (MLDP) portfolio is never less than the return rate of the minimum variance (MV) portfolio. This supports the practical use of drawdown-based performance measures in which the role of volatility is replaced by drawdown.     

具有交易费用和马氏调制的均值-方差组合选择

研究了均值-方差准则下,最优投资组合选择问题.投资者为了增加财富它可以在金融市场上投资.金融市场由一个无风险资产和n个带跳的风险资产组成,并假设金融市场具有马氏调制,买卖风险资产时,考虑交易费用.目标是,在终值财富的均值等于d的限制下,使终值财富的方差最小,即均值-方差组合选择问题.应用随机控制的理论解决该问题,获得了最优的投资策略和有效边界.     

Dynamic mean-variance and optimal reinsurance problems under the no-bankruptcy constraint for an insurer

In this paper, we consider the optimal investment and optimal reinsurance problems for an insurer under the criterion of mean-variance with bankruptcy prohibition, i.e., the wealth process of the insurer is not allowed to be below zero at any time. The risk process is a diffusion model and the insurer can invest in a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets. In view of the standard martingale approach in tackling continuous-time portfolio choice models, we consider two subproblems. After solving the two subproblems respectively, we can obtain the solution to the mean-variance optimal problem. We also consider the optimal problem when bankruptcy is allowed. In this situation, we obtain the efficient strategy and efficient frontier using the stochastic linear-quadratic control theory. Then we compare the results in the two cases and give a numerical example to illustrate our results.     

Portfolio selection problem with multiple risky assets under the constant elasticity of variance model

This paper focuses on the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model for studying the utility maximization portfolio selection problem with multiple risky assets and a risk-free asset. The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation associated with the portfolio optimization problem is established. By applying a power transform and a variable change technique, we derive the explicit solution for the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility function when the elasticity coefficient is −1 or 0. In order to obtain a general optimal strategy for all values of the elasticity coefficient, we propose a model with two risky assets and one risk-free asset and solve it under a given assumption. Furthermore, we analyze the properties of the optimal strategies and discuss the effects of market parameters on the optimal strategies. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented to illustrate the similarities and differences between the results of the two models proposed in this paper.     

Asset allocation with distorted beliefs and transaction costs

In this paper we study the problem of the optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs for a decision-maker who is faced with Knightian uncertainty. The decision-maker’s portfolio consists of one risky and one risk-free asset, and we assume that the transaction costs are proportional to the traded volume of the risky asset. The attitude to uncertainty is modeled by the Choquet expected utility. We derive optimal strategies and bounds of the no-transaction region for both optimistic and pessimistic decision-makers. The no-transaction region of a pessimistic investor is narrower and its bounds lie closer to the origin than that of an optimistic trader. Moreover, under the Choquet expected utility the structure of the no-transaction region is not necessarily a closed interval as it is under the standard expected utility model.     

模型不确定和极端事件冲击下带通胀的最优投资组合选择问题研究

本文研究了投资者在极端事件冲击下带通胀的最优投资组合选择问题, 其中投资者不仅对损失风险是厌恶的而且对模型不确定也是厌恶的. 投资者在风险资产和无风险资产中进行投资. 首先, 利用Ito公式推导考虑通胀的消费篮子价格动力学方程, 其次由通胀折现的终端财富预期效用最大化, 对含糊厌恶投资者的最优期望效用进行刻画. 利用动态规划原理, 建立最优消费和投资策略所满足的HJB方程. 再次, 利用市场分解的方法解出HJB方程, 获得投资者最优消费和投资策略的显式解. 最后, 通过数值模拟, 分析了含糊厌恶、风险厌恶、跳和通胀因素对投资者最优资产配置策略的影响.     

Non-separation in the mean–lower-partial-moment portfolio optimization problem

With a number of advantages, lower partial moments (LPM) serve as alternatives to variance as measures of portfolio risk. For two specific targets, a separation property holds in the context of mean–LPM portfolio optimization that allows investors to separate the decision about investment proportions among risky assets from the decision about how much to invest in risky versus risk-free assets. For other targets, however, separation is not guaranteed, and this case has not received much attention in the literature. We show in the case of non-separation that investment curves are not common to all optimizing investors, but that they are convex in (mean, LPM) space and their lower envelope is the efficient frontier. We consider the interesting behavior of investment curves and optimal risky portfolios. We also show empirically that an investor who mistakenly assumes separation holds will not experience significant excess portfolio risk in all practical cases.     

具有交易成本的证券组合投资决策研究

本文利用均值－方差模型，分析了有交易成本的证券投资组合的决策问题，给出了风险资产和无风险资产的最优投资比例与交易成本关系的一个有意义的结论。     

不确定市场条件下的稳健最优投资组合

本文假设风险资产和无风险资产收益的相关参数属于某个已知的凸多面体,分别讨论了在市场不存在无风险资产和存在无风险资产的情况下稳健最优投资组合问题,给出了问题的解析解,从而推广了Markowitz均值-方差模型的结果.     

在不允许卖空条件下的最优比例再保险投资

假设保险公司的盈余过程服从一个带扰动项的布朗运动,保险公司可以投资一个无风险资产和n个风险资产,还可以购买比例再保险,并且风险市场是不允许卖空的.本文在均值一方差优化准则下研究保险公司的最优投资一再保策略选择问题,利用LQ随机控制方法求解模型,得到了保险公司的最优组合投资策略的解析和保险公司投资的有效投资边界的解析表达...     

Entropic risk measures and their comparative statics in portfolio selection: Coherence vs. convexity

We conduct a decision-theoretic analysis of optimal portfolio choices and, in particular, their comparative statics under two types of entropic risk measures, the coherent entropic risk measure (CERM) and the convex entropic risk measure (ERM). Starting with the portfolio selection between a risky and a risk free asset (framework of Arrow (1965) and Pratt (1964)), we find a restrictive all-or-nothing investment decision under the CERM, while the ERM yields diversification. We then address a portfolio problem with two risky assets, and provide comparative statics with respect to the investor’s risk aversion (framework of Ross (1981)). Here, both the CERM and the ERM exhibit closely interrelated inconsistencies with respect to the interpretation of their risk parameters as a measure of risk aversion: for any two investors with different risk parameters, it may happen that the investor with the higher risk parameter invests more in the riskier one of the two assets. Finally, we analyze the portfolio problem “risky vs. risk free” in the presence of an independent background risk, and analyze the effect of changes in this background risk (framework of Gollier and Pratt (1996)). Again, we find questionable predictions: under the CERM, the optimal risky investment is always increasing instead of decreasing when a background risk is introduced, while under the ERM it remains unaffected.     

Multi‐asset portfolio optimization with transaction cost

The inclusion of transaction costs in the optimal portfolio selection and consumption rule problem is accomplished via the use of perturbation analyses. The portfolio under consideration consists of more than one risky asset, which makes numerical methods impractical. The objective is to establish both the transaction and the no‐transaction regions that characterize the optimal investment strategy. The optimal transaction boundaries for two and three risky assets portfolios are solved explicitly. A procedure for solving the N risky assets portfolio is described. The formulation used also reduces the restriction on the functional form of the utility preference.     

跳扩散环境下考虑红利支付的动态资产配置问题研究

研究资产价格带跳环境下红利支付对投资者资产配置的影响,投资者将其财富在风险资产和无风险资产中进行分配,在终端财富预期效用最大化标准下,利用动态规划原理建立的HJB方程推导最优配置策略,并得到最优动态资产配置策略的近似解.最后通过数值模拟,分析了跳和红利支付对投资者最优配置策略的影响.结果表明在跳发生的情况下,不管跳的大小和方向如何,投资者都会减少其在风险资产中的配置头寸,同时带有红利支付的资产比不带红利支付的资产对投资者更具吸引力.     

Heston随机波动率模型下带负债的投资组合博弈

本文研究了Heston随机波动模型下两个投资人之间的随机微分投资组合博弈问题。假设金融市场上存在价格过程服从常微分方程的无风险资产和价格过程服从Heston随机波动率模型的风险资产。该博弈问题被构造成两个效用最大化问题,每个投资者的目标是最大化终止时刻个人财富与竞争对手财富差的效用。首先,我们应用动态规划原理,得出了相应值函数所满足的HJB方程。然后,得到了在幂期望效用框架下非零和博弈的均衡投资策略和值函数的显式表达。最后,借助数值模拟,分析了模型中的参数对均衡投资策略和值函数的影响,从而为资产负债管理提供一定的理论指导。     

跳扩散模型下的非零和随机微分投资组合博弈

现实经济中,当股票价格受到一些重大信息影响而发生突发性的跳跃时,用跳扩散过程来描述股票价格的趋势更符合实际情况。基于这一观察,本文研究跳扩散模型下包含两个投资者的非零和投资组合博弈问题。假设金融市场中包含一种无风险资产和一种风险资产,其中风险资产的价格动态用跳扩散模型来描述。将该非零和博弈问题构造成两个效用最大化问题,每个投资者的目标是最大化终端时刻自身财富与其竞争对手财富差的均值-方差效用。运用随机控制理论,得到了均衡投资策略以及相应值函数的解析表达。最后通过数值仿真算例分析了模型相关参数变动对均衡投资策略的影响。仿真结果显示:当股价发生不连续跳跃,投资者在构造投资策略时考虑跳跃风险可以显著增加其效用水平;同时,随着博弈竞争的加剧,投资者为了在竞争中取得更好的表现,往往会采取更加激进的投资策略,增加对风险资产的投资。