人口迁移模型的改进及系统动力学仿真预测

求出了Keyfitz模型和Rogers模型的理论解,并以Rogers模型为例,对人口迁移模型进行了改进,使之适用范围更广.在人口迁移模型的基础上,建立了系统动力学模型,并对江西省的人口迁移问题进行了仿真预测,模拟出了江西省农村人口、城镇人口及城市化率的变化趋势.     

门限自回归滑动平均模型——TARMA

一、引言 近年来,时间序列的理论及应用得到了很大的发展,各种模型也应运而生。人们在实际应用中越来越感到现有的线性模型,如AR,ARMA模型等,难以很好地刻划复杂的物理现象。因此,对非线性模型的讨论越来越活跃,已经提出了一些非线性模型。但这些模型一般都较复杂,局限性强,建立模型很麻烦,难以推广。1977年,汤家豪提出的门限自回归模型,简称“TAR”(Threshold Autoregression),较好地克服了这些缺点。它的计算复杂性与一般的AR模型相当,且能刻划线性模型难以刻划的物理现象。本文就是基于这一思想,进一步发展了这一模型,提出了一种新的非线性模型——门限自回归滑动平均模型(TARMA)。     

构成型顾客满意模型的偏最小二乘路径建模及其应用

本文研究了偏最小二乘路径建模在顾客满意模型中的应用,特别是引入了构成型关系的模型。本文首先比较了构成型模型和反映型模型的区别,并详尽阐述了构成型模型的偏最小二乘建模原理,接着构建了电信企业顾客满意度指数模型,并考虑了如何在指数模型中引入构成型外部关系.利用该电信企业的数据,比较分析了构成型模型(顾客期望和质量感知潜变量调整为构成型关系)和反映型模型(所有潜变量均为反映型关系)的实证结果,研究表明在为企业提供改善顾客满意水平的信息上两种模型具有较好的相似性,但是构成型模型能够提供更加稳定的结果,从而验证了顾客满意模型中引入构成型模型的可行性.     

房地产行业的数学建模分析

分别建立了需求模型,供给模型,房地产与其他产业的关系模型,房价模型及房地产发展趋势的预测模型,并对影响模型的相应因素做了简要的分析.     

北京市水资源利用建模分析研究

以北京市为例,分别应用无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型和非线性模型对北京市2001年-2010年的用水量进行了建模,利用最优化方法,计算了上述两种模型的最优组合模型,通过三种模型分别计算了北京市2001年-2010年的水资源利用量,并与北京市2001年-2010年的实际用水量进行了对比,采用精度检验方法,分别对无偏灰色模型,非线性模型和组合模型进行了精度检验,计算结果表明,加权组合模型是三种模型中精度最高的模型,通过组合模型计算得出的用水量值与实际水资源利用量相比误差最小,由此得出,可以利用组合模型对北京市未来的水资源利用量进行预测,预测结果可为其他相关研究提供参考.     

多图模型的联合估计的群桥方法

高斯图模型研究独立随机变量之间的关系.主要针对该模型,提出了一种分层惩罚连接单个图模型估计的多图模型.研究了新模型的高维统计性质,给出模型的参数估计,并得到了相合性及稀疏性两大理论.     

差分形式的Gompertz模型及相关问题研究

在连续Gompertz模型基础上,导出了差分形式的Gompertz模型。通过对肿瘤生长数据的模拟,验证了差分形式的Gompertz模型对连续Gompertz模型具有良好的逼近效果;进一步,对其稳定性进行了研究,讨论了模型参数对平衡点稳定性的影响;最后,研究了一类基于差分形式的Gompertz模型的非线性动力系统的长期行为,数值模拟表明差分形式的Gompertz模型的长期行为对模型参数较为敏感。     

灰色绝对关联度的改进模型

基于刘思峰教授提出的灰色绝对关联度模型,提出了一点改进,给出了新的灰色绝对关联度模型,并讨论了新模型的性质及其算法.一方面保持了原绝对关联度模型的优点,另一方面改正了原模型在某些方面的不足.     

基于因子情境的机器学习多因子选股模型

对"通过机器学习优化股票多因子模型"问题进行详细分析.首先,给出了因子筛选的聚类方法,从各大类因子中筛选出具有代表性的最优因子;然后,应用3种机器学习模型,即SVM模型、GBDT模型和XGboost模型,构建了机器学习选股模型,与传统的等权重线性多因子模型相比,预测效果有了很大的改进;最后,从机器学习模型输入因子有效性的角度改进了风险控制.     

路面平整度的时间序列模型

介绍非标准道路的路面平整度的时间序列模型,研究道路实测数据的时间序列模型.通过对实际路段的数据采集,进行道路平整度实例分析和道路平整模型的平稳性检验、模型的识别和估计,确定了模型参数,检验模型的适用性.实例表明了模型的置性度和合理性.     

Evaluation of the pliability and rigidity of nonbalanced monoclinic composites

Conclusions As the result of a change in the deformation characteristics of the elementary layers, which is asymmetric with respect to the middle plane of the composite, and caused by imperfections of technical character, aging, the effect of temperature, moisture content, corrosive media, and other factors, the balancing of the laminated polymeric composites is disturbed. Formulas were obtained for determining all the pliability and rigidity matrix components of a nonbalanced monoclinic composite from known deformation characteristics, volume, and order of packing of the elementary layers.Institute of Wood Cellulose Chemistry, Academy of Sciences of the Latvian SSR, Riga. Translated from Mekhanika Polimerov, No. 6, pp. 1030–1035, November–December, 1976.     

A. N. Kolmogorov: Historian and philosopher of mathematics on the occasion of his 80th birthday

The contributions to the philosophy and history of mathematics of one of the most eminent contemporary mathematicians, A. N. Kolmogorov, are analyzed. Although these contributions are not numerous, they contain discussions of the gradual generalization of the subject of mathematics, a partition of the development of mathematics—in particular, of the theory of probability—into periods, and, also, an evaluation of the works of a number of great savants, such as Newton, Lobatchevsky, etc.     

基于DEA-博弈论模型的铁路电子车票实名制查验评价分析

将基于数据包络分析(DEA)模型和纳什讨价还价博弈论结合, 作为一种合作博弈方法, 对铁路电子车票实名制的查验进行了综合评价, 为准确评估铁路电子车票实名制查验的效率, 加强铁路客运服务水平提供决策判断。本文以20个不同等级的铁路车站为研究对象, 分人工和机器两大类, 选取身份证购票比例、通勤员工购票比例、临时身份证购票比例, 以及人工查验旅客数/小时/通道、机器查验的通过人数/闸机/小时、闸机人脸自动识别比例和延误比例等7个指标作为投入指标, 选取人、证、票三证合一的实名制查验比例作为产出指标, 基于数据包络分析(DEA)和纳什讨价还价博弈论结合的合作博弈模型, 从人工查验和机器查验两个角度对铁路电子车票实名制查验进行统一综合评价。案例结果表明, 铁路电子车票实名制查验效率呈现出人工查验和机器查验效率不均衡的态势; 车站人脸识别闸机的数量投入与所需闸机数量的不匹配是造成实名制查验效率下降的主要原因。根据评价结果, 从人工和机器查验两个角度提出了可行建议, 促进了铁路电子车票实名制查验效率的进一步提升。     

Universal algebras

A survey of the development of the theory of universal algebras in the years 1976–1988. Such basic directions of development of this theory as classes of universal algebras (varieties, quasivarieties, etc.), Mal'tsev conditions, congruences, sheaves, homomorphisms, subalgebras, products of algebras, clones of operations, completeness, systems of equations in algeberas, and connections with computer mathematics show up in it. Considerable attention is given to concrete classes of algebras (p-algebras, BCK-algebras, unary algebras, etc.).Translated from Itogi Nauki i Tekhniki, Seriya Algebra, Topologiya, Geometriya, Vol. 27, pp. 45–124, 1989.     

统计在生命科学中的实践与认识(Ⅵ) 临床试验(上)

本文回顾了临床试验发展的简史、随机临床试验的主要特征、临床试验实践中所面临的问题和困难，介绍了有关临床试验研究和应用的近展     

Personae at play. ‘Men of Mathematics’ in commentary

Mathematical writers, above all, Euclid, tend to present their theorems as decontextualized, abstract propositions, which has become the standard modus of textual presentation in theoretical mathematics. Mathematical commentators, however, provide their readers with personal names and historical facts in order to elucidate problems, provide contexts of discovery, or construct doxographies, among other things. Modern readers have used such information for the construction of histories of science. When we look at these passages, however, we see that personal names and information about mathematicians of the past can serve quite a range of different objectives, such as the strategic self-positioning of the commentator vis-à-vis the past or present of mathematics, the education of the reader, mathematical or moral, the construction of the history of the field, etc. Not only does the commentator present a persona of himself to the reader, he can also turn colleagues and predecessors into personae. This paper attempts to elucidate the practice, by offering four examples of such plays of and with personae, in Pappus, Eutocius, al-Nayrīzī, and Proclus.     

From inequalities involving exponential functions and sums to logarithmically complete monotonicity of ratios of gamma functions

In this paper, the authors review origins, motivations, and generalizations of a series of inequalities involving finitely many exponential functions and sums. They establish three new inequalities involving finitely many exponential functions and sums by finding convexity of a function related to the generating function of the Bernoulli numbers. They also survey the history, backgrounds, generalizations, logarithmically complete monotonicity, and applications of a series of ratios of finitely many gamma functions, present complete monotonicity of a linear combination of finitely many trigamma functions, construct a new ratio of finitely many gamma functions, derive monotonicity, logarithmic convexity, concavity, complete monotonicity, and the Bernstein function property of the newly constructed ratio of finitely many gamma functions. Finally, they suggest two linear combinations of finitely many trigamma functions and two ratios of finitely many gamma functions to be investigated.     

The mechanism of fatigue failure of plastics

Based on the study of the kinetics of deformation or rigidity, of the rise in temperature, and of the fracture surfaces, the article describes the mechanism of failure of plastics. It as found that in a cyclically loaded solid there occur two processes: strengthening and loss of strength. The main factors affecting strengthening in fatigue were discovered. Among them are the structure of the material, the degree of crystallinity, the load level, conditions of deformation, etc. The kinetics of rigidity can yield the most accurate information providing an idea of the process of fatigue failure of plastics.Paper read at the 9th International Conference on the Mechanics of Composite Materials, Riga, October, 1995.Kaunas Technological University, Lithuania. Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 279–285, March–April, 1996.     

In Defense of Logical Universalism: Taking Issue with Jean van Heijenoort

Van Heijenoort??s main contribution to history and philosophy of modern logic was his distinction between two basic views of logic, first, the absolutist, or universalist, view of the founding fathers, Frege, Peano, and Russell, which dominated the first, classical period of history of modern logic, and, second, the relativist, or model-theoretic, view, inherited from Boole, Schr?der, and L?wenheim, which has dominated the second, contemporary period of that history. In my paper, I present the man Jean van Heijenoort (Sect. 1); then I describe his way of arguing for the second view (Sect. 2); and finally I come down in favor of the first view (Sect. 3). There, I specify the version of universalism for which I am prepared to argue (Sect. 3, introduction). Choosing ZFC to play the part of universal, logical (in a nowadays forgotten sense) system, I show, through an example, how the usual model theory can be naturally given its proper place, from the universalist point of view, in the logical framework of ZFC; I outline another, not rival but complementary, semantics for admissible extensions of ZFC in the very same logical framework; I propose a way to get universalism out of the predicaments in which universalists themselves believed it to be (Sect. 3.1). Thus, if universalists of the classical period did not, in fact, construct these semantics, it was not that their universalism forbade them, in principle, to do so. The historical defeat of universalism was not technical in character. Neither was it philosophical. Indeed, it was hardly more than the victory of technicism over the very possibility of a philosophical dispute (Sect. 3.2).     

Random flows generated by random processes (properties of random flows,level-crossing problems)

Author's summary of a dissertation submitted for the degree of Doctor of Physicomathematical Sciences. The dissertation was defended February 10, 1970, at a meeting of the Scientific Council of the Institute of Applied Mathematics, Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Official opponents: B. V. Gnedenko, Academician of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Yu. V. Prokhorov, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, and N. N. Chentsov, Doctor of Physicomathematical Sciences.Translated from Matematicheskie Zametki, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 393–407, September, 1970.