随机加权法在密度估计中的应用

本文给出了概率密度函数的椭机加权估计，证明了承机加权分布与密度估计的标准化估计量的分布的逼近精度可达到ｏ（１／√ｎｈ），并且构造了Ｅｆｎ（ｘ）的置信区间，其中ｆｎ（ｘ）为密度函数的核估计，ｈ＝ｈｎ炒估计的窗宽。     

Reduced‐bias kernel estimators of a positive extreme value index

In this paper, we deal with the semi‐parametric estimation of the extreme value index, an important parameter in extreme value analysis. It is well known that many classic estimators, such as the Hill estimator, reveal a strong bias. This problem motivated the study of two classes of kernel estimators. Those classes generalize the classical Hill estimator and have a tuning parameter that enables us to modify the asymptotic mean squared error and eventually to improve their efficiency. Since the improvement in efficiency is not very expressive, we also study new reduced bias estimators based on the two classes of kernel statistics. Under suitable conditions, we prove their asymptotic normality. Moreover, an asymptotic comparison, at optimal levels, shows that the new classes of reduced bias estimators are more efficient than other reduced bias estimator from the literature. An illustration of the finite sample behaviour of the kernel reduced‐bias estimators is also provided through the analysis of a data set in the field of insurance.     

Marginal quantile regression for varying coefficient models with longitudinal data

In this paper, we investigate the quantile varying coefficient model for longitudinal data, where the unknown nonparametric functions are approximated by polynomial splines and the estimators are obtained by minimizing the quadratic inference function. The theoretical properties of the resulting estimators are established, and they achieve the optimal convergence rate for the nonparametric functions. Since the objective function is non-smooth, an estimation procedure is proposed that uses induced smoothing and we prove that the smoothed estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the original estimator. Moreover, we propose a variable selection procedure based on the regularization method, which can simultaneously estimate and select important nonparametric components and has the asymptotic oracle property. Extensive simulations and a real data analysis show the usefulness of the proposed method.

     

纵向数据边际模型非参数光滑方法的比较

对于纵向数据边际模型的均值函数, 有很多非参数估计方法, 其中回归样条, 光滑样条, 似乎不相关(SUR)核估计等方法在工作协方差阵正确指定时具有最小的渐近方差. 回归样条的渐近偏差与工作协方差阵无关, 而SUR核估计和光滑样条估计的渐近偏差却依赖于工作协方差阵. 本文主要研究了回归样条, 光滑样条和SUR核估计的效率问题. 通过模拟比较发现回归样条估计的表现比较稳定, 在大多数情况下比光滑样条估计和SUR核估计的效率高.     

Local Polynomial Regression: Optimal Kernels and Asymptotic Minimax Efficiency

We consider local polynomial fitting for estimating a regression function and its derivatives nonparametrically. This method possesses many nice features, among which automatic adaptation to the boundary and adaptation to various designs. A first contribution of this paper is the derivation of an optimal kernel for local polynomial regression, revealing that there is a universal optimal weighting scheme. Fan (1993, Ann. Statist., 21, 196-216) showed that the univariate local linear regression estimator is the best linear smoother, meaning that it attains the asymptotic linear minimax risk. Moreover, this smoother has high minimax risk. We show that this property also holds for the multivariate local linear regression estimator. In the univariate case we investigate minimax efficiency of local polynomial regression estimators, and find that the asymptotic minimax efficiency for commonly-used orders of fit is 100% among the class of all linear smoothers. Further, we quantify the loss in efficiency when going beyond this class.     

Estimating a density under pointwise constraints on the derivatives

Suppose we want to estimate a density at a point where we know the values of its first or higher order derivatives. In this case a given kernel estimator of the density can be modified by adding appropriately weighted kernel estimators of these derivatives. We give conditions under which the modified estimators are asymptotically normal. We also determine the optimal weights. When the highest derivative is known to vanish at a point, then the bias is asymptotically negligible at that point and the asymptotic variance of the kernel estimator can be made arbitrarily small by choosing a large bandwidth.     

Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a semi-functional partial linear regression model with unknown error density

In the context of semi-functional partial linear regression model, we study the problem of error density estimation. The unknown error density is approximated by a mixture of Gaussian densities with means being the individual residuals, and variance a constant parameter. This mixture error density has a form of a kernel density estimator of residuals, where the regression function, consisting of parametric and nonparametric components, is estimated by the ordinary least squares and functional Nadaraya–Watson estimators. The estimation accuracy of the ordinary least squares and functional Nadaraya–Watson estimators jointly depends on the same bandwidth parameter. A Bayesian approach is proposed to simultaneously estimate the bandwidths in the kernel-form error density and in the regression function. Under the kernel-form error density, we derive a kernel likelihood and posterior for the bandwidth parameters. For estimating the regression function and error density, a series of simulation studies show that the Bayesian approach yields better accuracy than the benchmark functional cross validation. Illustrated by a spectroscopy data set, we found that the Bayesian approach gives better point forecast accuracy of the regression function than the functional cross validation, and it is capable of producing prediction intervals nonparametrically.     

A bias reducing technique in kernel distribution function estimation

In this paper we suggest a bias reducing technique in kerneldistribution function estimation. In fact, it uses a convex combination of three kernel estimators, and it turned out that the bias has been reduced to the fourth power of the bandwidth, while the bias of the kernel distribution function estimator has the second power of the bandwidth. Also, the variance of the proposed estimator remains at the same order as the kernel distribution function estimator. Numerical results based on simulation studies show this phenomenon, too.     

单向分类随机效应模型中方差分量的渐近最优经验Bayes估计

本文在加权平方损失下导出了单向分类随机效应模型中方差分量的Bayes估计, 利用多元密度及其偏导数的核估计方法构造了方差分量的经验Bayes(EB)估计,证明了 EB估计的渐近最优性.文末还给出了一个例子说明了符合定理条件的先验分布是存在 的.     

Probability density estimation with surrogate data and validation sample

The probability density estimation problem with surrogate data and validation sample is considered. A regression calibration kernel density estimator is defined to incorporate the information contained in both surrogate variates and validation sample. Also, we define two weighted estimators which have less asymptotic variances but have bigger biases than the regression calibration kernel density estimator. All the proposed estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal. And the asymptotic representations for the mean squared error and mean integrated square error of the proposed estimators are established, respectively. A simulation study is conducted to compare the finite sample behaviors of the proposed estimators.     

Optimal variance estimation based on lagged second-order difference in nonparametric regression

Differenced estimators of variance bypass the estimation of regression function and thus are simple to calculate. However, there exist two problems: most differenced estimators do not achieve the asymptotic optimal rate for the mean square error; for finite samples the estimation bias is also important and not further considered. In this paper, we estimate the variance as the intercept in a linear regression with the lagged Gasser-type variance estimator as dependent variable. For the equidistant design, our estimator is not only \(n^{1/2}\)-consistent and asymptotically normal, but also achieves the optimal bound in terms of estimation variance with less asymptotic bias. Simulation studies show that our estimator has less mean square error than some existing differenced estimators, especially in the cases of immense oscillation of regression function and small-sized sample.     

Optimal kernel estimation of spot volatility of stochastic differential equations

A unified framework to optimally select the bandwidth and kernel function of spot volatility kernel estimators is put forward. The proposed models include not only classical Brownian motion driven dynamics but also volatility processes that are driven by long-memory fractional Brownian motions or other Gaussian processes. We characterize the leading order terms of the mean squared error, which in turn enables us to determine an explicit formula for the leading term of the optimal bandwidth. Central limit theorems for the estimation error are also obtained. A feasible plug-in type bandwidth selection procedure is then proposed, for which, as a sub-problem, a new estimator of the volatility of volatility is developed. The optimal selection of the kernel function is also investigated. For Brownian Motion type volatilities, the optimal kernel turns out to be an exponential function, while, for fractional Brownian motion type volatilities, easily implementable numerical results to compute the optimal kernels are devised. Simulation studies further confirm the good performance of the proposed methods.     

Variable selection for the partial linear single-index model

In this paper, we consider the issue of variable selection in partial linear single-index models under the assumption that the vector of regression coefficients is sparse. We apply penalized spline to estimate the nonparametric function and SCAD penalty to achieve sparse estimates of regression parameters in both the linear and single-index parts of the model. Under some mild conditions, it is shown that the penalized estimators have oracle property, in the sense that it is asymptotically normal with the same mean and covariance that they would have if zero coefficients are known in advance. Our model owns a least square representation, therefore standard least square programming algorithms can be implemented without extra programming efforts. In the meantime, parametric estimation, variable selection and nonparametric estimation can be realized in one step, which incredibly increases computational stability. The finite sample performance of the penalized estimators is evaluated through Monte Carlo studies and illustrated with a real data set.     

Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Random Fields in a Fixed-Design

We investigate the nonparametric estimation for regression in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. Sufficient conditions for kernel estimators to converge uniformly are obtained. These estimators can attain the optimal rates of uniform convergence and the results apply to a large class of random fields which contains martingale-difference random fields and mixing random fields. Articlenote: In final form 24 January 2005     

因变量缺失下部分线性变系数变量含误差模型的估计

该文主要考虑部分线性变系数模型在自变量含有测量误差以及因变量存在缺失情形下的估计问题.基于Profile最小二乘技术,针对参数分量和非参数分量提出了多种估计方法.第一种估计方法只利用了完整观测数据,而第二种和第三种估计方法分别利用了插补技术和替代技术.参数分量的所有估计被证明是渐近正态的,非参数分量的所有估计被证明和一般非参数回归函数的估计具有相同的收敛速度.对于因变量的均值,构造了两类估计并证明了它们的渐近正态性.最后,通过数值模拟验证了所提方法.     

Robustly stable pole-placement based adaptive control of continuous linear systems with multiestimation

This paper deals with the pole-placement type robust adaptive control of continuous linear systems in the presence of bounded noise and a common class of unmodeled dynamics with the use of multiple estimation schemes working in parallel. The multiestimation scheme consisting of the above set of various single estimation schemes is a tool used to minimize the plant identification error by building an estimate which is a convex combination of the estimates at all time. The weighting functions of the individual estimates are provided at each time by a suboptimization scheme for a quadratic loss function of a possibly filtered tracking error and/or control input. The robust stability of the overall adaptive scheme is ensured by an adaptation relative dead zone which takes into account the contribution of the unmodeled dynamics and bounded noise. The basic results are derived for two different estimation strategies which have either a shared regressor with the plant or individual regressors for the input contribution and its relevant time-derivatives. In this second case, the plant input is obtained through a similar convex combination rule as the one used for the estimators in the first approach. An extension of the basic strategies is also pointed out including a combined use of the suboptimization scheme with a supervisor of past measures for the on-line calculation of the estimator weights in the convex combination.     

Kernel quantile estimator with ICI adaptive bandwidth selection technique

In this article, we consider a class of kernel quantile estimators which is the linear combi- nation of order statistics. This class of kernel quantile estimators can be regarded as an extension of some existing estimators. The exact mean square error expression for this class of estimators will be provided when data are uniformly distributed. The implementation of these estimators depends mostly on the bandwidth selection. We then develop an adaptive method for bandwidth selection based on the intersection confidence intervals （ICI） principle. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate that our proposed approach is comparatively remarkable. We illustrate our method with a real data set.     

Nonparametric density estimation for linear processes with infinite variance

We consider nonparametric estimation of marginal density functions of linear processes by using kernel density estimators. We assume that the innovation processes are i.i.d. and have infinite-variance. We present the asymptotic distributions of the kernel density estimators with the order of bandwidths fixed as h =  cn ^−1/5, where n is the sample size. The asymptotic distributions depend on both the coefficients of linear processes and the tail behavior of the innovations. In some cases, the kernel estimators have the same asymptotic distributions as for i.i.d. observations. In other cases, the normalized kernel density estimators converge in distribution to stable distributions. A simulation study is also carried out to examine small sample properties.     

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In this paper, we investigate a competing risks model based on exponentiated Weibull distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme. To estimate the unknown parameters and reliability function, the maximum likelihood estimators and asymptotic confidence intervals are derived. Since Bayesian posterior density functions cannot be given in closed forms, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo method to calculate approximate Bayes estimators and highest posterior density credible intervals. To illustrate the estimation methods, a simulation study is carried out with numerical results. It is concluded that the maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation can be used for statistical inference in competing risks model under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme.     

Shape-Constrained Estimation Using Nonnegative Splines

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of unknown smooth functions in the presence of restrictions on the shape of the estimator and on its support using polynomial splines. We provide a general computational framework that treats these estimation problems in a unified manner, without the limitations of the existing methods. Applications of our approach include computing optimal spline estimators for regression, density estimation, and arrival rate estimation problems in the presence of various shape constraints. Our approach can also handle multiple simultaneous shape constraints. The approach is based on a characterization of nonnegative polynomials that leads to semidefinite programming (SDP) and second-order cone programming (SOCP) formulations of the problems. These formulations extend and generalize a number of previous approaches in the literature, including those with piecewise linear and B-spline estimators. We also consider a simpler approach in which nonnegative splines are approximated by splines whose pieces are polynomials with nonnegative coefficients in a nonnegative basis. A condition is presented to test whether a given nonnegative basis gives rise to a spline cone that is dense in the space of nonnegative continuous functions. The optimization models formulated in the article are solvable with minimal running time using off-the-shelf software. We provide numerical illustrations for density estimation and regression problems. These examples show that the proposed approach requires minimal computational time, and that the estimators obtained using our approach often match and frequently outperform kernel methods and spline smoothing without shape constraints. Supplementary materials for this article are provided online.