Dynamics of infection with nonlinear incidence in a simple vaccination model

We develop and analyze a simple SIV epidemic model including susceptible, infected and imperfectly vaccinated classes, with a nonlinear incidence rate. We investigate the interaction of the nonlinear incidence and partial immunity. Our main results show that nonlinear incidence rate could induce the forward bifurcation with hysteresis except for the backward bifurcation. The plausible effects of vaccination program have been demonstrated by two models with nonlinear incidence rate. Vaccination program may contribute to disease spread, depending on which transmission term involves nonlinear incidence rate.     

一类具有常数输入和垂直传染的SIRI传染病模型

建立了一类易感者及染病者均有常数输入,疾病具有垂直传染以及一般形式饱和接触率的SIRI传染病模型,分别研究了p=0,0相似文献   

GLOBAL STABILITY OF SIRS EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH A CLASS OF NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATES AND DISTRIBUTED DELAYS＊

In this article,we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlinear incidence rates and distributed...     

Diffusive logistic population growth with immigration

We study diffusive logistic growth with immigration for a habitat surrounded by a hostile environment. The focus of our interest is the effect of immigration on the critical habitat length required for survival of the population. As expected, we find that this is reduced when immigration occurs. We also briefly consider the much simpler case where both immigration and emigration take place in an isolated habitat.     

?-measure for continuous state branching processes and its application

In this paper, we first give a direct construction of the ℕ-measure of a continuous state branching process. Then we prove, with the help of this ℕ-measure, that any continuous state branching process with immigration can be constructed as the independent sum of a continuous state branching process (without immigration), and two immigration parts (jump immigration and continuum immigration). As an application of this construction of a continuous state branching process with immigration, we give a proof of a necessary and sufficient condition, first stated without proof by M. A. Pinsky [Bull. Amer. Math. Soc., 1972, 78: 242–244], for a continuous state branching process with immigration to a proper almost sure limit. As another application of the ℕ-measure, we give a “conceptual” proof of an L log L criterion for a continuous state branching process without immigration to have an L ¹-limit first proved by D. R. Grey [J. Appl. Prob., 1974, 11: 669–677].     

On the Lyapunov stability for SIRS epidemic models with general nonlinear incidence rate

We study an epidemic model for infections with non permanent acquired immunity (SIRS). The incidence rate is assumed to be a general nonlinear function of the susceptibles and the infectious classes. By using a peculiar Lyapunov function, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the local nonlinear stability of equilibria. Conditions ensuring the global stability are also obtained. Unlike the recent literature on this subject, here no restrictions are required about the monotonicity and concavity of the incidence rate with respect to the infectious class. Among the applications, the noteworthy case of a convex incidence rate is provided.     

Almost sure,L_1-and L_2-growth behavior of supercritical multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration

Under a first order moment condition on the immigration mechanism, we show that an appropriately scaled supercritical and irreducible multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration(CBI process) converges almost surely. If an x log(x) moment condition on the branching mechanism does not hold, then the limit is zero. If this x log(x) moment condition holds, then we prove L_1 convergence as well. The projection of the limit on any left non-Perron eigenvector of the branching mean matrix is vanishing.If, in addition, a suitable extra power moment condition on the branching mechanism holds, then we provide the correct scaling for the projection of a CBI process on certain left non-Perron eigenvectors of the branching mean matrix in order to have almost sure and L_1 limit. Moreover, under a second order moment condition on the branching and immigration mechanisms, we prove L_2 convergence of an appropriately scaled process and the above-mentioned projections as well. A representation of the limits is also provided under the same moment conditions.     

A delay SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and incubation times

In this paper, a new delay SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and incubation times is considered. We obtain an infection-free semi-trivial periodic solution and establish the sufficient conditions for the global attractivity of the semi-trivial periodic solution. By use of new computational techniques for impulsive differential equations with delay, we prove that the system is permanent under appropriate conditions. The results show that time delay, pulse vaccination and nonlinear incidence have significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of the model. Our results are illustrated and corroborated with some numerical experiments.     

Modelling and analysis of the spread of AIDS epidemic with immigration of HIV infectives

We propose and analyze, a nonlinear mathematical model of the spread of HIV/AIDS in a population of varying size with immigration of infectives. It is assumed that susceptibles become infected via sexual contacts with infectives (also assumed to be infectious) and all infectives ultimately develop AIDS. The model is studied using stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. Model dynamics is also discussed under two particular cases when there is no direct inflow of infectives. On analyzing these situations, it is found that the disease is always persistent if the direct immigration of infectives is allowed in the community. Further, in the absence of inflow of infectives, the endemicity of the disease is found to be higher if pre-AIDS individuals also interact sexually in comparison to the case when they do not take part in sexual interactions. Thus, if the direct immigration of infectives is restricted, the spread of infection can be slowed down. A numerical study of the model is also carried out to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.     

随机环境中带移民的上临界分枝过程的Berry-Esseen界

考虑独立同分布的随机环境中带移民的上临界分枝过程(Zn).应用(Zn)与随机环境中不带移民分枝过程的联系,以及与相应随机游动的联系,在一些适当的矩条件下,本文证明关于log Zn的中心极限定理的Berry-Esseen界.     

Nonlinear branching processes with immigration

The nonlinear branching process with immigration is constructed as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral equation driven by Poisson random measures. Some criteria for the regularity, recurrence, ergodicity and strong ergodicity of the process are then established.     

带移民的碰撞分枝过程的唯一性

本文提出了一种带移民的碰撞分枝过程,它由三部分组成:马氏分枝过程、碰撞分枝过程和状态独立的移民过程,给出了该过程正则性和唯一性判别准则。     

Size-structured populations: immigration, (bi)stability and the net growth rate

We consider a class of physiologically structured population models, a first order nonlinear partial differential equation equipped with a nonlocal boundary condition, with a constant external inflow of individuals. We prove that the linearised system is governed by a quasicontraction semigroup. We also establish that linear stability of equilibrium solutions is governed by a generalised net reproduction function. In a special case of the model ingredients we discuss the nonlinear dynamics of the system when the spectral bound of the linearised operator equals zero, i.e. when linearisation does not decide stability. This allows us to demonstrate, through a concrete example, how immigration might be beneficial to the population. In particular, we show that from a nonlinearly unstable positive equilibrium a linearly stable and unstable pair of equilibria bifurcates. In fact, the linearised system exhibits bistability, for a certain range of values of the external inflow, induced potentially by Allée-effect.     

Bifurcation analysis of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence

In this paper, we consider an epidemic model with the nonlinear incidence of a sigmoidal function. By mathematical analysis, it is shown that the model exhibits the bistability and undergoes the Hopf bifurcation and the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. By numerical simulations, it is found that the incidence rate can induce multiple limit cycles, and a little change of the parameter could lead to quite different bifurcation structures.     

本刊英文版Vol.33(2017),No.8论文摘要（英文）

正Nonlinear Branching Processes with Immigration Pei Sen LI Abstract The nonlinear branching process with immigration is constructed as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral equation driven by Poisson random measures.Some criteria for the regularity,recurrence,ergodicity and strong ergodicity of the process are then established.     

一类具有非线性发生率和治疗函数的传染病模型研究

传染病动力学系统的数学建模中,合理的使用非线性发生率往往更能使模型与实际相吻合.并且在实际的疾病防治过程中,由于受到空间人力物力资源的影响一般存在最大治疗容量的限制.结合这两种情况建立了一类含非线性发生率和最大治疗容量限制的传染病模型.通过分析这个模型,得到无病平衡点和正平衡点的存在性、稳定性.进一步取发生率和治疗系统达到最大容量时的感染者人数作为分支参数,得到了Hopf分支和Bogdanov-Takens分支的存在条件,并进行了数值模拟.     

A class of Lyapunov functions and the global stability of some epidemic models with nonlinear incidence

In this paper, by investigating an SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence, we present a new technique for proving the global stability of the endemic equilibrium, which consists of introducing a variable transformation and constructing a more general Lyapunov function. For the model we obtain the following results. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable in the feasible region as the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, and the endemic equilibrium is globally stable in the feasible region as the basic reproduction number is greater than unity.The generality of the technique is illustrated by considering certain nonlinear incidences and SIS and SIRS epidemic models.     

Estimation of the mean in partially observed branching processes with general immigration

In the paper we investigate asymptotic properties of the branching process with non-stationary immigration which are sufficient for a natural estimator of the offspring mean based on partial observations to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator uses only a binomially distributed subset of the population of each generation. This approach allows us to obtain results without conditions on the criticality of the process which makes possible to develop a unified estimation procedure without knowledge of the range of the offspring mean. These results are to be contrasted with the existing literature related to i.i.d. immigration case where the asymptotic normality depends on the criticality of the process and are new for the fully observed processes as well. Examples of applications in the process with immigration with regularly varying mean and variance and subcritical processes with i.i.d. immigration are also considered.

     

Polling systems and multitype branching processes

The joint queue length process in polling systems with and without switchover times is studied. If the service discipline in each queue satisfies a certain property it is shown that the joint queue length process at polling instants of a fixed queue is a multitype branching process (MTBP) with immigration. In the case of polling models with switchover times, it turns out that we are dealing with an MTBP with immigration in each state, whereas in the case of polling models without switchover times we are dealing with an MTBP with immigration in state zero. The theory of MTBPs leads to expressions for the generating function of the joint queue length process at polling instants. Sufficient conditions for ergodicity and moment calculations are also given.This work was done while the author was at the Centre for Mathematics and Computer Science (CWI) in Amsterdam, The Netherlands.