A ratio‐dependent eco‐epidemiological model of the Salton Sea

Ratio‐dependent models set up a challenging issue for their rich dynamics incomparison to prey‐dependent models. Little attention has been paid so far to describe the importance of transmissible disease in ecological situation by considering ratio‐dependent models. In this paper, by assuming the predator response function as ratio‐dependent, we consider a model of a system of three non‐linear differential equations describing the time evolution of susceptible and infected Tilapia fish population and their predator, the Pelican. Existence and stability analysis of different equilibria of the system lead to different realistic thresholds in terms of system parameters. The condition for extinction of the species is also worked out. Our analytical and numerical studies may be helpful to chalk out suitable control strategies for minimizing the extinction of the Pelicans. We also suggest that supply of alternative food source for predator population may be used as a possible solution to save the predator from their extinction. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete-time host–parasitoid models with Allee effects: Density dependence versus parasitism

We present two general discrete-time host–parasitoid models with Allee effects on the host. In the first model, it is assumed that parasitism occurs prior to density dependence, while in the second model we assume that density dependence operates first followed by parasitism. It is shown that both models have similar asymptotic behaviour. The parasitoid population will definitely go extinct if the maximal growth rate of the host population is less than or equal to one, independent of whether density dependence or parasitism occurs first. The fate of the population is initial condition dependent if this maximal growth rate exceeds one. In particular, there exists a host population threshold, the Allee threshold, below which the host population goes extinct and so does the parasitoid. This threshold is the same for both models. Numerical examples with different functions are simulated to illustrate our analytical results.     

ECOLOGICAL‐ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVEST FOR AN ENDANGERED BUT EXOTIC MEGAHERBIVORE IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

ABSTRACT. How can one manage wildlife under a suite of competing values? In isolation, the ecological economics of native wildlife harvest, threatened species conservation and control of exotic species are all well established sub‐disciplines of wildlife management. However, the wild banteng (Bos javanicus) population of northern Australia represents an interesting combination of these aspirations. A native bovid of Southeast Asia now ‘endangered’ in its native range, banteng were introduced into northern Australia in 1849. Today, a population of 8,000–10,000 resides on one small, isolated peninsula in western Arnhem Land, Northern Territory and is harvested by both recreational (trophy) and aboriginal subsistence hunters. Indigenous, industry and conservationist stakeholders differ in their requirements for population management. Here we analyze the ecological and economic costs/benefits of a series of potential harvest management options for Australia's banteng population, with the aim being either to: (1) maximize sustainable yield (MSY); (2) maximize harvest of trophy males; (3) maximize indigenous off‐take; (4) suppress density or completely eradicate the population; (5) minimize risk of extinction whilst limiting range expansion; (6) scenarios incorporating two or more of options 1–5. The modeling framework employed stochastic, density‐regulated matrix population models with life‐history parameters derived from (i) allometric relationships (for estimating r_max, generation length, fecundity and densities for a banteng‐sized mammal) and (ii) measured vital rates for wild and captive banteng and other Bos spp. For each management option, we present a simple economic analysis that incorporates estimated costs of management implementation and associated profits projected. Results demonstrate that revenue of >Ä$200,000 is possible from meat production and safari hunting without compromising long‐term population stability or the conservation status of this endangered bovid.     

Non‐homogeneous Navier–Stokes systems with order‐parameter‐dependent stresses

We consider the Navier–Stokes system with variable density and variable viscosity coupled to a transport equation for an order‐parameter c. Moreover, an extra stress depending on c and ?c, which describes surface tension like effects, is included in the Navier–Stokes system. Such a system arises, e.g. for certain models of granular flows and as a diffuse interface model for a two‐phase flow of viscous incompressible fluids. The so‐called density‐dependent Navier–Stokes system is also a special case of our system. We prove short‐time existence of strong solution in L^q‐Sobolev spaces with q>d. We consider the case of a bounded domain and an asymptotically flat layer with a combination of a Dirichlet boundary condition and a free surface boundary condition. The result is based on a maximal regularity result for the linearized system. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

USING RESERVES TO PROTECT FISH AND WILDLIFE SIMPLIFIED MODELING APPROACHES

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates theoretically to what extent a nature reserve may protect a uniformly distributed population of fish or wildlife against negative effects of harvesting. Two objectives of this protection are considered: avoidance of population extinction and maintenance of population, at or above a given precautionary population level. The pre‐reserve population is assumed to follow the logistic growth law and two models for post‐reserve population dynamics are formulated and discussed. For Model A by assumption the logistic growth law with a common carrying capacity is valid also for the post‐reserve population growth. In Model B, it is assumed that each sub‐population has its own carrying capacity proportionate to its distribution area. For both models, migration from the high‐density area to the low‐density area is proportional to the density difference. For both models there are two possible outcomes, either a unique globally stable equilibrium, or extinction. The latter may occur when the exploitation effort is above a threshold that is derived explicitly for both models. However, when the migration rate is less than the growth rate both models imply that the reserve can be chosen so that extinction cannot occur. For the opposite case, when migration is large compared to natural growth, a reserve as the only management tool cannot assure survival of the population, but the specific way it increases critical effort is discussed.     

ON THE MANAGEMENT OF INTERCONNECTED WILDLIFE POPULATIONS

Abstract Economic interdependency of wildlife or fish stocks is usually attributed to ecological interdependency, such as predator–prey and competitive relationships, or to density‐dependent migration of species between different areas. This paper provides another channel for economic interdependency of wildlife where density‐independent migration and market price interaction affect the management strategies among different landowners. Management is studied under three market conditions for selling hunting licenses: price taking behavior, monopoly market, and duopoly market. Harvesting of the Scandinavian moose is used as an example. The paper provides several results on how economic interdependency works through the migration pattern. When a duopoly market is introduced, hunting license price interaction among the landowners plays an additional role in determining the optimal harvesting strategy.     

WILDLIFE RESERVES,POPULATIONS, AND HUNTING OUTCOME WITH SMART WILDLIFE

We consider a hunting area and a wildlife reserve and answer the question: How does clever migration decision affect the social optimal and the private optimal hunting levels and population stocks? We analyze this in a model allowing for two‐way migration between hunting and reserve areas, where the populations’ migration decisions depend on both hunting pressure and relative population densities. In the social optimum a pure stress effect on the behavior of smart wildlife exists. This implies that the population level in the wildlife reserve tends to increase and the population level in the hunting area and hunting levels tend to decrease. On the other hand, the effect on stock tends to reduce the population in the wildlife reserve and increase the population in the hunting area and thereby also increase hunting. In the case of the private optimum, open‐access is assumed and we find that the same qualitative results arise when comparing a situation with and without stress effects, but of course at a higher level of hunting. We also show that when net social benefits of hunting dominate the net social benefits of populations, wildlife reserves are optimally placed in areas of low carrying capacity and vice versa.     

Dynamics of virus infection models with density‐dependent diffusion and Beddington–DeAngelis functional response

In this work, we integrate both density‐dependent diffusion process and Beddington–DeAngelis functional response into virus infection models to consider their combined effects on viral infection and its control. We perform global analysis by constructing Lyapunov functions and prove that the system is well posed. We investigated the viral dynamics for scenarios of single‐strain and multi‐strain viruses and find that, for the multi‐strain model, if the basic reproduction number for all viral strains is greater than 1, then each strain persists in the host. Our investigation indicates that treating a patient using only a single type of therapy may cause competitive exclusion, which is disadvantageous to the patient's health. For patients infected with several viral strains, the combination of several therapies is a better choice. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models

We consider SIS, SIR and MSIR models with standard mass action and varying population, with n different pathogen strains of an infectious disease. We also consider the same models with vertical transmission. We prove that under generic conditions a competitive exclusion principle holds. To each strain a basic reproduction ratio can be associated. It corresponds to the case where only this strain exists. The basic reproduction ratio of the complete system is the maximum of each individual basic reproduction ratio. Actually we also define an equivalent threshold for each strain. The winner of the competition is the strain with the maximum threshold. It turns out that this strain is the most virulent, i.e., this is the strain for which the endemic equilibrium gives the minimum population for the susceptible host population. This can be interpreted as a pessimization principle.     

Dynamical study of fractional order differential equations of predator‐pest models

To explore the impact of pest‐control strategy through a fractional derivative, we consider three predator‐prey systems by simple modification of Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model. First, we consider fractional‐order Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model. Allee threshold phenomena into pest population is considered for the second case. Finally, we consider additional food to the predator and harvesting in prey population. The main objective of the present investigation is to observe which model is most suitable for the pest control. To achieve this goal, we perform the local stability analysis of the equilibrium points and observe the basic dynamical properties of all the systems. We observe fractional‐order system has the ability to stabilize Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model with low pest density from oscillatory state. In the numerical simulations, we focus on the bistable regions of the second and third model, and we also observe the effect of the fractional order α throughout the stability region of the system. For the third model, we observe a saddle‐node bifurcation due to the additional food and Allee effect to the pest densities. Also, we numerically plot two parameter bifurcation diagram with respect to the harvesting parameter and fractional order of the system. We finally conclude that fractional‐order Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model and the modified Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model with additional food for the predator and harvested pest population are more suitable models for the pest management.     

OPTIMAL HARVESTING WITH DENSITY DEPENDENT RANDOM EFFECTS

We consider the effect of sudden large, randomly occurring density dependent disasters on the optimal harvest policy and optimal expected return for an exploited population. The population is assumed to grow logistically with disasters occurring on a time scale very short compared to the natural growth scale. The case of a density dependent disaster frequency is also treated. Stochastic dynamic programming is used in the optimization. For a set of realistic field data it is found that random effects typically have a significant effect on both optimal return and optimal effort levels. The effect of density dependence is far more pronounced for optimal return than for optimal effort levels.     

MODELS OF HOST-PARASITOID INTERACTIONS TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMAL INSTAR OF PARASITIZATION FOR PEST CONTROL

Four models are presented to investigate the effects of the host instar that is parasitized on host equilibrium numbers. The models are age structured and density dependent. The models indicate that the equilibrium density of adult hosts is a positive function of the host age at attack. This result is independent of the host survivorship curve. The effects of the other parameters are outlined, and compared for the various positions of density dependence. The equilibria of both parasitoids and hosts are generally larger when density dependence is in the parasitoids than when in the hosts. Numerical runs indicate that the birth rate and stage-specific survivorship of the hosts are the most important parameters of the system in determining both stability around equilibrium and the host growth rate below equilibrium.     

Dynamics of an age‐structured host‐vector model for malaria transmission

In this paper, we propose a host‐vector model for malaria transmission by incorporating infection age in the infected host population and nonlinear incidence for transmission from infectious vectors to susceptible hosts. One novelty of the model is that the recovered hosts only have temporary immunity and another is that successfully recovered infected hosts may become susceptible immediately. Firstly, the existence and local stability of equilibria is studied. Secondly, rigorous mathematical analyses on technical materials and necessary arguments, including asymptotic smoothness and uniform persistence of the system, are given. Thirdly, by applying the fluctuation lemma and the approach of Lyapunov functionals, the threshold dynamics of the model for a special case were established. Roughly speaking, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one and otherwise the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when no reinfection occurs. It is shown that the infection age and nonlinear incidence not only impact on the basic reproduction number but also could affect the values of the endemic steady state. Numerical simulations were performed to support the theoretical results.     

Ideal density‐dependent incompressible viscoelastic flow in the critical Besov spaces

In this paper, we consider the well‐posedness issue for the density‐dependent incompressible viscoelastic fluids of the Oldroyd model for the ideal case in space dimension greater than 2. We obtain the local well‐posedness of this model under the assumption that the initial density is bounded away from zero in the critical Besov spaces by means of the Littlewood‐Paley theory and Bony's paradifferential calculus. In particular, we obtain a Beale‐Kato‐Majida–type regularity criterion.     

Optimal inventory threshold for a dynamic service make‐to‐stock system with strategic customers

We consider a make‐to‐stock production system with one product type, dynamic service policy, and delay‐sensitive customers. To balance the waiting cost of customers and holding cost of products, a dynamic production policy is adopted. If there is no customer waiting in the system, instead of shutting down, the system operates at a low production rate until a certain threshold of inventory is reached. If the inventory is empty and a new customer emerges, the system switches to a high production rate where the switching time is assumed to be exponentially distributed. Potential customers arrive according to the Poisson process. They are strategic in the sense that they make decisions on whether to stay for product or leave without purchase on the basis of on their utility value and the system information on whether the number of products is observable to customers or not. The strategic behavior is explored, and a Stackelberg game between production manager and customers is formulated where the former is the game leader. We find that the optimal inventory threshold minimizing the cost function can be obtained by a search algorithm. Numerical results demonstrate that the expected cost function in an observable case is not greater than that in an unobservable case. If a customer's delay sensitivity is relatively small, these two cases are entirely identical. With increasing of delay sensitivity, the optimal inventory threshold might be positive or zero, and hence, a demarcation line is depicted to determine when a make‐to‐stock policy is advantageous to the manager.     

POPULATION EXTINCTION IN DETERMINISTICAND STOCHASTIC DISCRETE‐TIME EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH PERIODIC COEFFICIENTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO AMPHIBIAN POPULATIONS

ABSTRACT. Discrete‐time deterministic and stochastic epidemic models are formulated for the spread of disease in a structured host population. The models have applications to a fungal pathogen affecting amphibian populations. The host population is structured according to two developmental stages, juveniles and adults. The juvenile stage is a post‐metamorphic, nonreproductive stage, whereas the adult stage is reproductive. Each developmental stage is further subdivided according to disease status, either susceptible or infected. There is no recovery from disease. Each year is divided into a fixed number of periods, the first period represents a time of births and the remaining time periods there are no births, only survival within a stage, transition to another stage or transmission of infection. Conditions are derived for population extinction and for local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that high transmission rates can destabilize the disease‐free equilibrium and low survival probabilities can lead to population extinction. Numerical simulations illustrate the dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models.     

Modeling diseases with latency and nonlinear incidence rates: global dynamics of a multi‐group model

In this paper, we perform global stability analysis of a multi‐group SEIR epidemic model in which we can consider the heterogeneity of host population and the effects of latency and nonlinear incidence rates. For a simpler version that assumes an identical natural death rate for all groups, and with a gamma distribution for the latency, the basic reproduction number is defined by the theory of the next generation operator and proved to be a sharp threshold determining whether or not disease spread. Under certain assumptions, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R₀≤1 and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if R₀>1. The proofs of global stability of equilibria exploit a matrix‐theoretic method using Perron eigenvetor, a graph‐theoretic method based on Kirchhoff's matrix tree theorem and Lyapunov functionals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of SIS Epidemic Model with Varying Total Population and Multivaccination Control Strategies

In this paper, two susceptible‐infected‐susceptible epidemic models with varying total population size, continuous vaccination, and state‐dependent pulse vaccination are formulated to describe the transmission of infectious diseases, such as diphtheria, measles, rubella, pertussis, and so on. The first model incorporates the proportion of infected individuals in population as monitoring threshold value; we analytically show the existence and orbital asymptotical stability of positive order‐1 periodic solution for this control model. The other model determines control strategy by monitoring the proportion of susceptible individuals in population; we also investigate the existence and global orbital asymptotical stability of the disease‐free periodic solution. Theoretical results imply that the disease dies out in the second case. Finally, using realistic parameter values, we carry out some numerical simulations to illustrate the main theoretical results and the feasibility of state‐dependent pulse control strategy.     

Semi‐linear wave models with power non‐linearity and scale‐invariant time‐dependent mass and dissipation

In this paper we will consider the semi‐linear Cauchy problem for wave models with scale‐invariant time‐dependent mass and dissipation and power non‐linearity. The goal is to study the interplay between the coefficients of the mass and the dissipation term to prove blow‐up results or global existence (in time) of small data energy solutions.     

A high resolution finite difference method for a model of structured susceptible‐infected populations coupled with the environment

We develop a general model describing a structured susceptible‐infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represents the environment. We develop a second‐order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the high‐resolution property of the scheme and an application to a multi‐host wildlife disease model is explored.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 33: 1420–1458, 2017