Time dependent analysis of finite buffer fluid flows and risk models with a dividend barrier

Based on the matrix-analytic approach to fluid flows initiated by Ramaswami, we develop an efficient time dependent analysis for a general Markov modulated fluid flow model with a finite buffer and an arbitrary initial fluid level at time 0. We also apply this to an insurance risk model with a dividend barrier and a general Markovian arrival process of claims with possible dependencies in successive inter-claim intervals and in claim sizes. We demonstrate the implementability and accuracy of our algorithms through a set of numerical examples that could also serve as test cases for comparing other solution approaches.      

A local limit theorem for the probability of ruin

In this paper, we give a result on the local asymptotic behaviour of the probability of ruin in a continuous-time risk model in which the inter-claim times have an Erlang distribution and the individual claim sizes have a distribution that belongs to S(v) with v≥ 0, but where the Lundberg exponent of the underlying risk process does not exist.     

Markov modulated Poisson process associated with state-dependent marks and its applications to the deep earthquakes

In this paper, we introduce one type of Markov-Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) whose arrival times are associated with state-dependent marks. Statistical inference problems including the derivation of the likelihood, parameter estimation through EM algorithm and statistical inference on the state process and the observed point process are addressed. A goodness-of-fit test is proposed for MMPP with state-dependent marks by utilizing the theories of rescaling marked point process. We also perform some numerical simulations to indicate the effects of different marks on the efficiencies and accuracies of MLE. The effects of the attached marks on the estimation tend to be weakened for increasing data sizes. Then we apply these methods to characterize the occurrence patterns of New Zealand deep earthquakes through a second-order MMPP with state-dependent marks. In this model, the occurrence times and magnitudes of the deep earthquakes are associated with two levels of seismicity which evolves in terms of an unobservable two-state Markov chain.     

Ruin probabilities in the risk process with random income

We extend the classical risk model to the case in which the premium income process, modelled as a Poisson process, is no longer a linear function. We derive an analog of the Beekman convolution formula for the ultimate ruin probability when the inter-claim times are exponentially distributed. A defective renewal equation satisfied by the ultimate ruin probability is then given. For the general inter-claim times with zero-truncated geometrically distributed claim sizes, the explicit expression for the ultimate ruin probability is derived.     

Dam processes with state dependent batch sizes and intermittent production processes with state dependent rates

We consider a dam process with a general (state dependent) release rule and a pure jump input process, where the jump sizes are state dependent. We give sufficient conditions under which the process has a stationary version in the case where the jump times and sizes are governed by a marked point process which is point (Palm) stationary and ergodic. We give special attention to the Markov and Markov regenerative cases for which the main stability condition is weakened. We then study an intermittent production process with state dependent rates. We provide sufficient conditions for stability for this process and show that if these conditions are satisfied, then an interesting new relationship exists between the stationary distribution of this process and a dam process of the type we explore here.Supported in part by The Israel Science Foundation, grant no. 372/93-1.     

On the analysis of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function for risk processes with Markovian arrivals

In this paper, we consider an insurance risk model governed by a Markovian arrival claim process and by phase-type distributed claim amounts, which also allows for claim sizes to be correlated with the inter-claim times. A defective renewal equation of matrix form is derived for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function and solved using matrix analytic methods. The use of the busy period distribution for the canonical fluid flow model is a key factor in our analysis, allowing us to obtain an explicit form of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function avoiding thus the use of Lundberg’s fundamental equation roots. As a special case, we derive the triple Laplace transform of the time to ruin, surplus prior to ruin, and deficit at ruin in explicit form, further obtaining the discounted joint and marginal moments of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin.     

带观察时的跳服从Erlang(n)分布的对偶模型的红利贴现问题

研究了跳服从Erlang(n)分布,随机观察时服从指数分布的对偶风险模型.假设在边值策略下红利分发只在观察时发生,建立了红利期望贴现函数V(u;b)的微积分方程组.给出了当收益额服从PH(m)分布时V(u;b)的解析解.探讨了当收益额服从指数分布时V(u;b)的具体求解方法.     

The Gerber-Shiu penalty functions for two classes of renewal risk processes

In this paper, we study the Gerber-Shiu functions for a risk model with two independent classes of risks. We suppose that both of the two claim number processes are renewal processes with phase-type inter-claim times. By re-composing and analyzing the Markov chains associated with two given phase-type distributions, we obtain systems of integro-differential equations for two types of Gerber-Shiu functions. Explicit expressions for the Laplace transforms of the two types of Gerber-Shiu functions are established, respectively. And explicit results for the Gerber-Shiu functions are derived when the initial surplus is zero and when the two claim amount distributions are both from the rational family. Finally, an example is considered to illustrate the applicability of our main results.     

Pricing Options Under a Generalized Markov-Modulated Jump-Diffusion Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing of options when the dynamics of the risky underlying asset are driven by a Markov-modulated jump-diffusion model. We suppose that the market interest rate, the drift and the volatility of the underlying risky asset switch over time according to the state of an economy, which is modelled by a continuous-time Markov chain. The measure process is defined to be a generalized mixture of Poisson random measure and encompasses a general class of processes, for example, a generalized gamma process, which includes the weighted gamma process and the inverse Gaussian process. Another interesting feature of the measure process is that jump times and jump sizes can be correlated in general. The model considered here can provide market practitioners with flexibility in modelling the dynamics of the underlying risky asset. We employ the generalized regime-switching Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure in the incomplete market setting. A system of coupled partial-differential-integral equations satisfied by the European option prices is derived. We also derive a decomposition result for an American put option into its European counterpart and early exercise premium. Simulation results of the model have been presented and discussed.     

A risk model with paying dividends and random environment

We consider a discrete time risk model where dividends are paid to insureds and the claim size has a discrete phase-type distribution, but the claim sizes vary according to an underlying Markov process called an environment process. In addition, the probability of paying the next dividend is affected by the current state of the underlying Markov process. We provide explicit expressions for the ruin probability and the deficit distribution at ruin by extracting a QBD (quasi-birth-and-death) structure in the model and then analyzing the QBD process. Numerical examples are also given.     

Constant Dividend Barrier in a Risk Model with a Generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern Copula

In this paper, we consider the classical surplus process with a constant dividend barrier and a dependence structure between the claim amounts and the inter-claim times. We derive an integro-differential equation with boundary conditions. Its solution is expressed as the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in the absence of a dividend barrier plus a linear combination of a finite number of linearly independent particular solutions to the associated homogeneous integro-differential equation. Finally, we obtain an explicit solution when the claim amounts are exponentially distributed and we investigate the effects of dependence on ruin quantities.     

带干扰phaes-type风险模型中的最大盈余及相关分布

本文考虑了索赔时间间距为phase-type分布时带干扰更新风险模型中的破产前最大盈余、破产后赤字的分布,建立了相应的积分-微分方程.最后,讨论了当索赔时间间距为Erlang(2)分布且索赔量满足指数分布时的特殊情形.     

Monte-Carlo estimation of time-dependent statistical characteristics of random dynamical systems

The problem of estimating the time-dependent statistical characteristics of a random dynamical system is studied under two different settings. In the first, the system dynamics is governed by a differential equation parameterized by a random parameter, while in the second, this is governed by a differential equation with an underlying parameter sequence characterized by a continuous time Markov chain. We propose, for the first time in the literature, stochastic approximation algorithms for estimating various time-dependent process characteristics of the system. In particular, we provide efficient estimators for quantities such as the mean, variance and distribution of the process at any given time as well as the joint distribution and the autocorrelation coefficient at different times.     

The Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in the risk process with phase-type interclaim times

In this paper, we consider the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function for the Sparre Anderson risk process in which the interclaim times have a phase-type distribution. By the Markov property of a joint process composed of the risk process and the underlying Markov process, we provide a new approach to prove the systems of integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu functions. Closed form expressions for the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained when the claim amount distribution is from the rational family. Finally we compute several numerical examples intended to illustrate the main results.     

The perturbed Sparre Andersen model with a threshold dividend strategy

In this paper, we consider a Sparre Andersen model perturbed by diffusion with generalized Erlang(n)-distributed inter-claim times and a threshold dividend strategy. Integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the moment-generation function and the mth moment of the present value of all dividends until ruin are derived. We also derive integro-differential equations with boundary conditions for the Gerber–Shiu functions. The special case where the inter-claim times are Erlang(2) distributed and the claim size distribution is exponential is considered in some details.     

A Multinomial Approximation Approach for the Finite Time Survival Probability Under the Markov-modulated Risk Model

In this paper, we consider the problem of computing different types of finite time survival probabilities for a Markov-Modulated risk model and a Markov-Modulated risk model with reinsurance, both with varying premium rates. We use the multinomial approximation scheme to derive an efficient recursive algorithm to compute finite time survival probabilities and finite time draw-down survival probabilities. Numerical results show that by comparing with MCMC approximation, discretize approximation and diffusion approximation methods, the proposed scheme performs accurate results in all the considered cases and with better computation efficiency.

     

The phase-type risk model perturbed by diffusion under a threshold dividend strategy

This paper considers a perturbed renewal risk process in which the inter-claim times have a phase-type distribution under a threshold dividend strategy. Integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the moment-generating function and the mth moment of the present value of all dividends until ruin are derived. Explicit expressions for the expectation of the present value of all dividends until ruin are obtained when the claim amount distribution is from the rational family. Finally, we present an example.     

Threshold分红策略下带干扰的两类索赔风险模型的Geber-Shiu函数

本文研究了在threshold分红策略下带干扰的两类索赔风险模型的Geber-Shiu函数.这里假设两个索赔计数过程为独立的更新过程,其中一个为Poisson过程另一个为时间间隔服从广义Erlang(2)分布的更新过程.本文得到了threshold分红策略下Gerber-Shiu函数所满足的积分-微分方程及其边界条件....     

The Sparre Andersen Risk Process with Investment and Debit Interest

In this paper, we study absolute ruin problems for the Sparre Andersen risk process with generalized Erlang()-distributed inter-claim times, investment and debit interest. We first give a system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function at absolute ruin. Second, we obtain a defective renewal equation under some special cases, then based on the defective renewal equation we derive two asymptotic results for the expected discounted penalty function when the initial surplus tends to infinity for the light-tailed claims and heavy-tailed claims, respectively. Finally, we investigate some explicit solutions and numerical results for generalized Erlang(2) inter-claim times and exponential claims.     

一类推广的常利率复合Poisson-Geometric风险模型的预警区问题

在复合Poisson-Geometric风险模型的基础上,引入利率因素,并将保费收入由线性过程推广为复合Poisson过程,建立了一类推广的带常利率复合Poisson-Geometric风险模型,该模型描述现实的能力更强,更具有实际意义.然后,利用盈余过程的强马氏性推导出了首个预警区的条件矩母函数所满足的积分方程,并进一步在保费额和索赔额都服从指数分布的情形下得出了其解析解.