Valuation and hedging of participating life-insurance policies under management discretion

The valuation and hedging of participating life insurance policies, also known as with-profits policies, is considered. Such policies can be seen as European path-dependent contingent claims whose underlying security is the investment portfolio of the insurance company that sold the policy. The fair valuation of these policies is studied under the assumption that the insurance company has the right to modify the investment strategy of the underlying portfolio at any time. Furthermore, it is assumed that the issuer of the policy does not setup a separate portfolio to hedge the risk associated with the policy. Instead, the issuer will use its discretion about the investment strategy of the underlying portfolio to hedge shortfall risks. In that sense, the insurer’s investment portfolio serves simultaneously as the underlying security and as the hedge portfolio. This means that the hedging problem can not be separated from the valuation problem. We investigate the relationship between risk-neutral valuation and hedging of these policies in complete and incomplete financial markets.     

Assessing the cost of capital for longevity risk

The cost of capital is a key element of the embedded value methodology for the valuation of a life business. Further, under some solvency approaches (in particular, the Swiss Solvency Test and the developing Solvency 2 project) assessing the cost of capital constitutes a step in determining the required capital allocation.Whilst the cost of capital is usually meant as a reward for the risks encumbering a given life portfolio, in actuarial practice the relevant parameter has been traditionally chosen, at least to some extent, inconsistently with such risks. The adoption of market-consistent valuations has then been advocated to reach a common standard.A market-consistent value usually acknowledges a reward to shareholders’ capital as long as the market does, namely if the risk is systematic or undiversifiable. When dealing with a life annuity portfolio (or a pension plan), an important example of systematic risk is provided by the longevity risk, i.e. the risk of systematic deviations from the forecasted mortality trend. Hence, a market-consistent approach should provide appropriate valuation tools.In this paper we refer to a portfolio of immediate life annuities and we focus on longevity risk. Our purpose is to design a framework for a valuation of the portfolio which is market-consistent, and therefore based on a risk-neutral argument, while involving some of the basic items of a traditional valuation, viz best estimate future flows and allocated capital. This way, we try to reconcile the traditional with a market-consistent (or risk-neutral) approach. This allows us, in particular, to translate the results obtained under the risk-neutral approach in terms of a properly redefined embedded value.     

基于矩匹配的、多标的实物期权估值方法研究

实物期权能够恰当地反映管理的灵活性价值,但是实际应用中往往对应多个标的物,现有的方法不能很好的求解其价值及变量的敏感性,从而限制了其应用.本文将多个标的资产视为一篮子资产组合,通过矩匹配方法求得组合资产的近似分布,从而可求解多标的实物期权的解析解,并通过案例分析了该方法的优势和便利性.     

Fair valuation of insurance contracts under Lévy process specifications

The valuation of options embedded in insurance contracts using concepts from financial mathematics (in particular, from option pricing theory), typically referred to as fair valuation, has recently attracted considerable interest in academia as well as among practitioners. The aim of this article is to investigate the valuation of participating and unit-linked life insurance contracts, which are characterized by embedded rate guarantees and bonus distribution rules. In contrast to the existing literature, our approach models the dynamics of the reference portfolio by means of an exponential Lévy process. Our analysis sheds light on the impact of the dynamics of the reference portfolio on the fair contract value for several popular types of insurance policies. Moreover, it helps to assess the potential risk arising from misspecification of the stochastic process driving the reference portfolio.     

Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios under nested simulation: A functional data approach

A variable annuity (VA) is equity-linked annuity product that has rapidly grown in popularity around the world in recent years. Research up to date on VA largely focuses on the valuation of guarantees embedded in a single VA contract. However, methods developed for individual VA contracts based on option pricing theory cannot be extended to large VA portfolios. Insurance companies currently use nested simulation to valuate guarantees for VA portfolios but efficient valuation under nested simulation for a large VA portfolio has been a real challenge. The computation in nested simulation is highly intensive and often prohibitive. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that combines a clustering technique with a functional data analysis technique to address the issue. We create a highly non-homogeneous synthetic VA portfolio of 100,000 contracts and use it to estimate the dollar Delta of the portfolio at each time step of outer loop scenarios under the nested simulation framework over a period of 25 years. Our test results show that the proposed approach performs well in terms of accuracy and efficiency.     

On the simulation of portfolios of interest rate and credit risk sensitive securities

We discuss extensions of reduced-form and structural models for pricing credit risky securities to portfolio simulation and valuation. Stochasticity in interest rates and credit spreads is captured via reduced-form models and is incorporated with a default and migration model based on the structural credit risk modelling approach. Calculated prices are consistent with observed prices and the term structure of default-free and defaultable interest rates. Three applications are discussed: (i) study of the inter-temporal price sensitivity of credit bonds and the sensitivity of future portfolio valuation with respect to changes in interest rates, default probabilities, recovery rates and rating migration, (ii) study of the structure of credit risk by investigating the impact of disparate risk factors on portfolio risk, and (iii) tracking of corporate bond indices via simulation and optimisation models. In particular, we study the effect of uncertainty in credit spreads and interest rates on the overall risk of a credit portfolio, a topic that has been recently discussed by Kiesel et al. [The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions. Technical report, Bank of England, ISSN 1268-5562, 2001], but has been otherwise mostly neglected. We find that spread risk and interest rate risk are important factors that do not diversify away in a large portfolio context, especially when high-quality instruments are considered.     

Utility Indifference Pricing: A Time Consistent Approach

Abstract

This article considers the optimal portfolio selection problem in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with regime switching. The risk preferences are of exponential (CARA) type with an absolute coefficient of risk aversion that changes with the regime. The market model is incomplete and there are two risky assets: tradable and non-tradable. In this context, the optimal investment strategies are time inconsistent. Consequently, the subgame perfect equilibrium strategies are considered. The utility indifference ask price of a contingent claim written on the risky assets is computed through an indifference valuation algorithm. By running numerical experiments, we examine how this price varies in response to changes in model parameters.     

A note on the integrability of the classical portfolio selection model

We revisit the classical Merton portfolio selection model from the perspective of integrability analysis. By an application of a nonlocal transformation the nonlinear partial differential equation for the two-asset model is mapped into a linear option valuation equation with a consumption dependent source term. This result is identical to the one obtained by Cox–Huang [J.C. Cox, C.-f. Huang, Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process, J. Econom. Theory 49 (1989) 33–88], using measure theory and stochastic integrals. The nonlinear two-asset equation is then analyzed using the theory of Lie symmetry groups. We show that the linearization is directly related to the structure of the generalized symmetries.     

Valuation of project portfolios: An endogenously discounted method

Real options analysis (ROA) has been developed to value assets in which managerial flexibilities create significant value. The methodology is ideal for the valuation of projects in which frequent adjustments (e.g. investment deferral, project scope changes, etc) are necessary in response to the realization of market and technological uncertainties. However, ROA has no practical application when valuing portfolios of multiple concurrent projects sharing resources, as the size of the problem grows exponentially with the number of projects and the length of the time horizon. In this paper an extension of ROA suitable for the valuation of project portfolios with substantial technological uncertainty (e.g. R&D portfolios) is proposed. The method exploits the distributed decision making strategy encountered in most organizations to decompose the portfolio valuation problem into a decision-making sub-problem and a set of single project valuation sub-problems that can be sequentially solved. Discrete event simulation is used for the first sub-problem, while a tailored ROA based strategy is used for the set of valuation sub-problems. A case study from the pharmaceutical industry is used to compare the decision tree analysis (DTA) method and the proposed method.     

Contingent claim valuation in a market with different interest rates

The problem of contingent claim valuation in a market with a higher interest rate for borrowing than for lending is discussed. We give results which cover especially the European call and put options. The method used is based on transforming the problem to suitable auxiliary markets with only one interest rate for borrowing and lending and is adapted from a paper of Cvitanic and Karatzas (1992) where the authors study constrained portfolio problems.     

A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development (R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows. In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.     

Über die Bewertung von Kreditderivaten unter unvollständiger Information

This article illustrates the most important results of the diploma thesis Wendler [8]. First, a dynamic information market model based on Frey et al. [2] is introduced. It is able to simulate price processes of portfolio products with dependent underlyings. In the second part, this model is applied to the valuation of synthetic collateralized debt obligations. Therefor, well known procedures are taken up from literature and new algorithms are developed.     

Stochastic variational inequalities and optimal stopping: applications to the robustness of the portfolio/consumption processes

We give a new characterization of the Snell envelope of a given process as the unique solution of the stochastic variational inequality (SVI) in this article. This approach leads to several a priori estimates for the Snell envelopes and their components. The valuation for American Contingent Claims (ACC) in general financial market model is considered as an application. The robustness of the optimal portfolio/consumption processes with respect to the payoff function is established.     

Valuation of employee stock options using the exercise multiple approach and life tables

Employee stock options (ESOs) are common in performance-based employee remuneration. Financial reporting standards such as IFRS2 and AASB2 require public corporations to report on the cost of providing ESOs, and mandate the incorporation of voluntary and involuntary early exercise. In this paper we extend the exercise multiple approach of Hull and White (2004) and decompose the attrition unadjusted voluntary exercise ESO into a gap call option and two partial-time barrier options. We use exit probabilities obtained from empirically determined multiple decrement or life tables to model involuntary early exercise or forfeiture. We provide a new analytic valuation formula which expresses the ESO value in terms of a portfolio of exotic European bivariate power options and which correctly accounts for both voluntary exercise and employee attrition. Recent approaches seek to model employee attrition using a constant hazard rate. Our approach uses an empirically driven actuarial method for incorporating employee attrition in the valuation.     

Studying the interdependence of contractual and operational flexibilities in the market of specialty chemicals

This paper focuses on the market of specialty chemicals and deals with the joint investigation and valuation of contractual and operational flexibilities from a manufacturers’ point of view. In this market, customized services related to research, development and manufacturing of chemicals, intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients are offered to a small number of customers. Traditionally, customers are granted a large degree of freedom with respect to demand quantity and time exposing the manufacturer to high uncertainty and financial risk. Using a model-based approach we quantify the effect of this contractual flexibility and relate it to the manufacturing flexibility concerning capacity allocation. Through the valuation of these flexibilities we provide first insights for the manufacturer on which customer requests to accept, how to set up the associated contracts with the customers and how to allocate capacity for a given portfolio of products.     

Analysis of survivorship life insurance portfolios with stochastic rates of return

A general portfolio of survivorship life insurance contracts is studied in a stochastic rate of return environment with a dependent mortality model. Two methods are used to derive the first two moments of the prospective loss random variable. The first one is based on the individual loss random variables while the second one studies annual stochastic cash flows. The distribution function of the present value of future losses at a given valuation time is derived. For illustrative purposes, an AR(1) process is used to model the stochastic rates of return, and the future lifetimes of a couple are assumed to follow a copula model. The effects of the mortality dependence, the portfolio size and the policy type, as well as the impact of investment strategies on the riskiness of portfolios of survivorship life insurance policies are analyzed by means of moments and probability distributions.     

Insurance valuation: A computable multi-period cost-of-capital approach

We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replication using only cash funds. The latter part takes capital requirements and costs into account, as well as limited liability and risk averseness of capital providers. The cost-of-capital margin is the value of the residual cash flow. We set up a general framework for the cost-of-capital margin and relate it to dynamic risk measurement. Moreover, we present explicit formulas and properties of the cost-of-capital margin under further assumptions on the model for the liability cash flow and on the conditional risk measures and utility functions. Finally, we highlight computational aspects of the cost-of-capital margin, and related quantities, in terms of an example from life insurance.     

Risk-neutral valuation of participating life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate environment

Over the last years, the valuation of life insurance contracts using concepts from financial mathematics has become a popular research area for actuaries as well as financial economists. In particular, several methods have been proposed of how to model and price participating policies, which are characterized by an annual interest rate guarantee and some bonus distribution rules. However, despite the long terms of life insurance products, most valuation models allowing for sophisticated bonus distribution rules and the inclusion of frequently offered options assume a simple Black–Scholes setup and, more specifically, deterministic or even constant interest rates.We present a framework in which participating life insurance contracts including predominant kinds of guarantees and options can be valuated and analyzed in a stochastic interest rate environment. In particular, the different option elements can be priced and analyzed separately. We use Monte Carlo and discretization methods to derive the respective values.The sensitivity of the contract and guarantee values with respect to multiple parameters is studied using the bonus distribution schemes as introduced in [Bauer, D., Kiesel, R., Kling, A., Ruß, J., 2006. Risk-neutral valuation of participating life insurance contracts. Insurance: Math. Econom. 39, 171–183]. Surprisingly, even though the value of the contract as a whole is only moderately affected by the stochasticity of the short rate of interest, the value of the different embedded options is altered considerably in comparison to the value under constant interest rates. Furthermore, using a simplified asset portfolio and empirical parameter estimations, we show that the proportion of stock within the insurer’s asset portfolio substantially affects the value of the contract.     

A market-based martingale valuation approach to optimum inventory control in a doubly stochastic jump-diffusion economy

We propose a novel market-based approach to optimum inventory control in a doubly stochastic jump-diffusion economy by modelling a commodity distributor’s inventory investment as a portfolio of forward commitments with explicit accounting of the jump-diffusion dynamics of demands, costs, and prices in open markets. We apply the robust real-asset martingale valuation methodology to derive a closed-form solution for the inventory value and a simple and intuitive optimality condition. Numerical analysis verifies this condition and demonstrates that the resulting optimum policy has robust properties in relation to the stylized effects.     

A hierarchical copula-based world-wide valuation of sovereign risk

We propose a new model for the aggregation of risks that is very flexible and useful in high dimensional problems. We propose a copula-based model that is both hierarchical and hybrid (HYC for short), because: (i) the dependence structure is modeled as a hierarchical copula, (ii) it unifies the idea of the clusterized homogeneous copula-based approach (CHC for short) and its limiting version (LHC for short) proposed in Bernardi and Romagnoli (2012, 2013). Based on this, we compute the loss function of a world-wide sovereign debt portfolio which accounts for a systemic dependence of all countries, in line with a global valuation of financial risks. Our approach enables us to take into account the non-exchangeable behavior of a sovereign debts’ portfolio clustered into several classes with homogeneous risk and to recover a possible risks’ hierarchy. A comparison between the HYC loss surface and those computed through a pure limiting approach, which is commonly used in high dimensional problems, is presented and the impact of the concentration and the granularity errors is appreciated. Finally the impact of an enlargement of the dependence structure is discussed, in the contest of a geographical area sub-portfolios analysis now relevant to determine the risk contributions of subgroups under the presence of a wider dependence structure. This argument is presented in relation to the evaluation of the insurance premium and the collateral related to the designed project of an euro-insurance-bond.