Project options valuation with net present value and decision tree analysis

Real options analysis (ROA) has been developed to correctly value projects with inherent flexibility, including the possibility to abandon, defer, expand, contract or switch to a different project. ROA allows computing the correct discount rate using the replicating portfolio technique or risk-neutral probability method. We propose an alternative approach for valuing Real Options based on the certainty-equivalent version of the net present value formula, which eliminates the need to identify market-priced twin securities. In addition, our approach can be extended to the case of multinomial trees, a useful tool for modeling uncertainty in projects. We introduce within decision tree analysis (DTA) a method to derive the different discount rates that prevail at different chance nodes. We illustrate the valuation method with an application presented in “A Scenario Approach to Capacity Planning” [Eppen, G.D., Martin, R.K., Schrage, L.E., 1989. A scenario approach to capacity planning. Operations Research, 37 (4)], in which the authors state that for the capacity configuration investment decision studied at General Motors, “… there is no scientific way to determine the appropriate discount rate based on estimated demand.” Our method allows deriving the scientifically correct discount rates. A major result of the analysis is that the discount rates are endogenously derived from the project structure and its behavior in light of prevailing market conditions, instead of being exogenously imposed.     

Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information

In the selection of investment projects, it is important to account for exogenous uncertainties (such as macroeconomic developments) which may impact the performance of projects. These uncertainties can be addressed by examining how the projects perform across several scenarios; but it may be difficult to assign well-founded probabilities to such scenarios, or to characterize the decision makers’ risk preferences through a uniquely defined utility function. Motivated by these considerations, we develop a portfolio selection framework which (i) uses set inclusion to capture incomplete information about scenario probabilities and utility functions, (ii) identifies all the non-dominated project portfolios in view of this information, and (iii) offers decision support for rejection and selection of projects. The proposed framework enables interactive decision support processes where the implications of additional probability and utility information or further risk constraints are shown in terms of corresponding decision recommendations.     

Sequential valuation networks for asymmetric decision problems

This paper deals with representation and solution of asymmetric decision problems. We describe a new representation called sequential valuation networks that is a hybrid of Covaliu and Oliver’s sequential decision diagrams and Shenoy’s valuation networks. The solution algorithm is based on the idea of decomposing a large asymmetric problem into smaller sub-problems and then using the fusion algorithm of valuation networks to solve the sub-problems. Sequential valuation networks inherit many of the strengths of sequential decision diagrams and valuation networks while overcoming many of their shortcomings. We illustrate our technique by representing and solving a modified version of Covaliu and Oliver’s [Manage. Sci. 41(12) (1995) 1860] Reactor problem in complete detail.     

A mathematical programming model and solution for scheduling production orders in Shanghai Baoshan Iron and Steel Complex

In this paper, we investigate the production order scheduling problem derived from the production of steel sheets in Shanghai Baoshan Iron and Steel Complex (Baosteel). A deterministic mixed integer programming (MIP) model for scheduling production orders on some critical and bottleneck operations in Baosteel is presented in which practical technological constraints have been considered. The objective is to determine the starting and ending times of production orders on corresponding operations under capacity constraints for minimizing the sum of weighted completion times of all orders. Due to large numbers of variables and constraints in the model, a decomposition solution methodology based on a synergistic combination of Lagrangian relaxation, linear programming and heuristics is developed. Unlike the commonly used method of relaxing capacity constraints, this methodology alternatively relaxes constraints coupling integer variables with continuous variables which are introduced to the objective function by Lagrangian multipliers. The Lagrangian relaxed problem can be decomposed into two sub-problems by separating continuous variables from integer ones. The sub-problem that relates to continuous variables is a linear programming problem which can be solved using standard software package OSL, while the other sub-problem is an integer programming problem which can be solved optimally by further decomposition. The subgradient optimization method is used to update Lagrangian multipliers. A production order scheduling simulation system for Baosteel is developed by embedding the above Lagrangian heuristics. Computational results for problems with up to 100 orders show that the proposed Lagrangian relaxation method is stable and can find good solutions within a reasonable time.     

Effective search space control for large and/or complex driver scheduling problems

For real life bus and train driver scheduling instances, the number of columns in terms of the set covering/partitioning ILP model could run into billions making the problem very difficult. Column generation approaches have the drawback that the sub-problems for generating the columns would be computationally expensive in such situations. This paper proposes a hybrid solution method, called PowerSolver, of using an iterative heuristic to derive a series of small refined sub-problem instances fed into an existing efficient set covering ILP based solver. In each iteration, the minimum set of relief opportunities that guarantees a solution no worse than the current best is retained. Controlled by a user-defined strategy, a small number of the banned relief opportunities would be reactivated and some soft constraints may be relaxed before the new sub-problem instance is solved. PowerSolver is proving successful by many transport operators who are now routinely using it. Test results from some large scale real-life exercises will be reported.     

A HOMOTOPY-BASED ALTERNATING DIRECTION METHOD OF MULTIPLIERS FOR STRUCTURED CONVEX OPTIMIZATION

The alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM for short) is efficient for linearly constrained convex optimization problem. The practical computational cost of ADMM depends on the sub-problem solvers. The proximal point algorithm is a common sub-problem-solver. However, the proximal parameter is sensitive in the proximal ADMM. In this paper, we propose a homotopy-based proximal linearized ADMM, in which a homotopy method is used to solve the sub-problems at each iteration. Under some suitable conditions, the global convergence and the convergence rate of O(1/k) in the worst case of the proposed method are proven. Some preliminary numerical results indicate the validity of the proposed method.     

Airline Base Schedule Optimisation by Flight Network Annealing

A system for rigorous airline base schedule optimisation is described. The architecture of the system reflects the underlying problem structure. The architecture is hierarchical consisting of a master problem for logical aircraft schedule optimisation and a sub-problem for schedule evaluation.The sub-problem is made up of a number of component sub-problems including connection generation, passenger choice modelling, passenger traffic allocation by simulation and revenue and cost determination.Schedule optimisation is carried out by means of simulated annealing of flight networks. The operators for the simulated annealing process are feasibility preserving and form a complete set of operators.     

Sparsity-promoting distributed charging control for plug-in electric vehicles over distribution networks

Uncoordinated charging of plug-in electric vehicles brings a new challenge on the operation of a power system as it causes power flow fluctuations and even unacceptable load peaks. To ensure the stability of power network, plug-in charging needs to be scheduled against the base load properly. In this paper, we propose a sparsity-promoting charging control model to address this issue. In the model, the satisfaction of customers is improved through sparsity-promoting charging where the numbers of charging time slots are optimized. Dynamic feeder overload constraints are imposed in the model to avoid any unacceptable load peaks, and thus ensure the network stability. Then, a distributed solution strategy is developed to solve the problem based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) since most of power networks are managed typically in a distributed manner. During solving process, Lagrangian duality is used to transform the original problem into an equivalent dual problem, which can be decomposed into a set of homogeneous small-scaled sub-problems. Particularly, each sub-problem either has a closed-form solution or can be solved locally by an accelerated dual gradient method. The global convergence of the proposed algorithm is also established. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our proposed method. In contrast to traditional charging models, our sparsity-promoting charging model not only ensures the stability of power network, but also improves the satisfaction of customers.     

基于模糊结构元的技术创新项目中止决策研究

将基于结构元的模糊数学理论引入技术创新项目的评估决策,在决策者给出多属性决策指标参照点的情况下,使用结构元表示模糊信息并计算模糊损益值;进一步地,考虑决策者的心理行为因素,依据累积前景理论计算风险状态下各属性的模糊前景值,再集成为由结构元表示的项目模糊综合前景值;在此基础上,选取适当的权函数对项目进行模糊排序决策。最后给出一个具体的应用过程,验证了此方法的可行性和有效性。     

Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection

A key issue in applying multi-attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value – a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values. In this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and, unlike existing techniques, make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute. Furthermore, we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value-to-cost -based project rankings for all baseline values. We also show how these results can be used to (i) analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and (ii) provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available.     

A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development (R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows. In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.     

A branch and price solution approach for order acceptance and capacity planning in make-to-order operations

Make-to-order (MTO) operations have to effectively manage their capacity to make long-term sustainable profits. This objective can be met by selectively accepting available customer orders and simultaneously planning for capacity. We model a MTO operation of a job-shop with multiple resources having regular and non-regular capacity. The MTO firm has a set of customer orders at time zero with fixed due-dates. The process route, processing times, and sales price for each order are given. Since orders compete for limited resources, the firm can only accept some orders. In this paper a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) is proposed to aid an operational manager to decide which orders to accept and how to allocate resources such that the overall profit is maximized. A branch-and-price (B&P) algorithm is devised to solve the MILP effectively. The MILP is first decomposed into a master problem and several sub-problems using Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition. Each sub-problem is represented as a network flow problem and an exact procedure is proposed to solve the sub-problems efficiently. We also propose an approximate B&P scheme, Lagrangian bounds, and approximations to fathom nodes in the branch-and-bound tree. Computational analysis shows that the proposed B&P algorithm can solve large problem instances with relatively short time.     

A market-based multi-agent system model for decentralized multi-project scheduling

We consider a multi-project scheduling problem, where each project is composed of a set of activities, with precedence relations, requiring specific amounts of local and shared (among projects) resources. The aim is to complete all the project activities, satisfying precedence and resource constraints, and minimizing each project schedule length. The decision making process is supposed to be decentralized, with as many local decision makers as the projects. A multi-agent system model, and an iterative combinatorial auction mechanism for the agent coordination are proposed. We provide a dynamic programming formulation for the combinatorial auction problem, and heuristic algorithms for both the combinatorial auction and the bidding process. An experimental analysis on the whole multi-agent system model is discussed.     

The stochastic economic lot sizing problem for non-stop multi-grade production with sequence-restricted setup changeovers

We study a variant of the stochastic economic lot scheduling problem (SELSP) encountered in process industries, in which a single production facility must produce several different grades of a family of products to meet random stationary demand for each grade from a common finished-goods (FG) inventory buffer that has limited storage capacity. When the facility is set up to produce a particular grade, the only allowable changeovers are from that grade to the next lower or higher grade. Raw material is always available, and the production facility produces continuously at a constant rate even during changeover transitions. All changeover times are constant and equal to each other, and demand that cannot be satisfied directly from inventory is lost. There is a changeover cost per changeover occasion, a spill-over cost per unit of product in excess whenever there is not enough space in the FG buffer to store the produced grade, and a lost-sales cost per unit short whenever there is not enough FG inventory to satisfy the demand. We model the SELSP as a discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP), where in each time period the decision is whether to initiate a changeover to a neighboring grade or keep the set up of the production facility unchanged, based on the current state of the system, which is defined by the current set up of the facility and the FG inventory levels of all the grades. The goal is to minimize the (long-run) expected average cost per period. For problems with more than three grades, we develop a heuristic solution procedure which is based on decomposing the original multi-grade problem into several 3-grade MDP sub-problems, numerically solving each sub-problem using value iteration, and constructing the final policy for the original problem by combining parts of the optimal policies of the sub-problems. We present numerical results for problem examples with 2–5 grades. For the 2- and 3-grade examples, we numerically solve the exact MDP problem using value iteration to obtain insights into the structure of the optimal changeover policy. For the 4- and 5-grade examples, we compare the performance of the decomposition-based heuristic (DBH) solution procedure against that obtained by numerically solving the exact problem. We also compare the performance of the DBH method against the performance of three simpler parameterized heuristics. Finally, we compare the performance of the DBH and the exact solution procedures for the case where the FG inventory storage consists of a number of separate general-purpose silos capable of storing any grade as long as it is not mixed with any other grade.     

A multiobjective evolutionary approach for linearly constrained project selection under uncertainty

In the project selection problem a decision maker is required to allocate limited resources among an available set of competing projects. These projects could arise, although not exclusively, in an R&D, information technology or capital budgeting context. We propose an evolutionary method for project selection problems with partially funded projects, multiple (stochastic) objectives, project interdependencies (in the objectives), and a linear structure for resource constraints. The method is based on posterior articulation of preferences and is able to approximate the efficient frontier composed of stochastically nondominated solutions. We compared the method with the stochastic parameter space investigation method (PSI) and illustrate it by means of an R&D portfolio problem under uncertainty based on Monte Carlo simulation.     

Competence-driven project portfolio selection,scheduling and staff assignment

This paper presents a new model for project portfolio selection, paying specific attention to competence development. The model seeks to maximize a weighted average of economic gains from projects and strategic gains from the increment of desirable competencies. As a sub-problem, scheduling and staff assignment for a candidate set of selected projects must also be optimized. We provide a nonlinear mixed-integer program formulation for the overall problem, and then propose heuristic solution techniques composed of (1) a greedy heuristic for the scheduling and staff assignment part, and (2) two (alternative) metaheuristics for the project selection part. The paper outlines experimental results on a real-world application provided by the E-Commerce Competence Center Austria and, for a slightly simplified instance, presents comparisons with the exact solution computed by CPLEX.     

Multiple agents finitely repeated inspection game with dismissals

Decision makers usually have to face a budget and other type of constraints when they have to decide which projects are going to be undertaken (to satisfy their requirements and guarantee profitable growth). Our purpose is to assist them in the task of selecting project portfolios. We have approached this problem by proposing a general nonlinear binary multi-objective mathematical model, which takes into account all the most important factors mentioned in the literature related with Project Portfolio Selection and Scheduling. Due to the existence of uncertainty in different aspects involved in the aforementioned decision task, we have also incorporated into the model some fuzzy parameters, which allow us to represent information not fully known by the decision maker/s. The resulting problem is both fuzzy and multiobjective. The results are complemented with graphical tools, which show the usefulness of the proposed model to assist the decision maker/s.     

基于灰色系统理论的工程项目评标方法研究

工程项目评标实质是多目标决策问题,为优先出合适的投标单位,建立灰色Euclid理论工程项目评标决策模型.首先,运用层次分析法(AHP)与信息熵法分别确定主客观权重.然后利用博弈集结模型对指标体系进行组合赋权,得到综合权重.最后,结合工程项目评标实例运用灰色Euclid理论评标模型进行评标决策.结果表明,运用博弈集结组合赋权和灰色Euclid理论模型选出投标单位D为最优方案,与实际评标一致,验证了模型的可操作性和适用性.     

Three-stage heuristic algorithm for three-dimensional irregular packing problem

This paper studies a new practical problem which can be decomposed into three three-dimensional packing problems: three-dimensional irregular packing with variable-size cartons problem, three-dimensional variable-size bin packing problem, and the single container loading problem. Since the three sub-problems are NP-hard, searching a good solution becomes more difficult. In this paper, mathematical models of each sub-problem are developed and three-stage heuristic algorithms are proposed to solve this new problem. Experiments are conducted with random instances generated by real-life case. Computational results indicate that the proposed algorithm is efficient and can yield satisfactory results.     

The impact of investment lags on investment decision

This paper suggests a valuation framework for an investment project through the concept of real options. Generally, in real asset world, decision time and its payment time are not identical. This so-called investment lag problem should be considered when valuing real assets. When investment lags exist, firms’ accommodation capacities play important roles. In this paper, the real effect of investment lag on investment value is tested upon various conditions. We show the valuation process of real assets under the risk-neutral world. The closed-form formula is also provided for valuing real assets, including R&D project.