Cost estimation algorithm and decision-making model for curriculum modification in educational organization

The decision about curriculum modification usually takes place at the knowledge level, mainly with consideration of individual academic staff competences and qualifications. However, traditional approaches to cost estimation of curriculum modification are focused on material resources only. In this paper we present a cost estimation method and decision model for curriculum modification in educational organizations. The proposed method works at the knowledge level and employs competence sets as knowledge representation models in educational organizations. Authors used the theory of hierarchical, multilevel systems in order to define the model of the decision-making process of curriculum modification and its dimension. Basing on this and also using a fuzzy competence model the cost estimation algorithm in the form of a group competences expansion algorithm is proposed. The algorithm focuses on the cost of staff competence expansion caused by the knowledge development process.     

基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型与方法

以突发危机事件应急决策为应用背景,讨论了双论域上模糊粗糙集的基本理论,建立了基于模糊相容关系的双论域模糊粗糙集模型. 在此基础上,把突发危机事件应急决策转化为一个具有模糊决策对象的双论域决策近似空间上的粗糙近似问题,构建了基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型.首先在双论域近似空间中计算模糊决策对象的上(下)近似,进而结合经典非确定型决策的思想给出了突发危机事件应急决策的规则.同时,给出了模型的算法.该模型给出了一种在不完全信息环境下应急决策的方法,给出了在充分考虑决策者个人偏好信息基础上的决策置信度以及最优决策规则.该方法能够比较充分地符合应急决策信息不充分、资源有限以及时间紧迫的基本特征, 进而对突发危机事件应急决策提供科学的理论基础和现实的决策方法.最后,通过应用算例说明了模型的应用过程,结果验证了本文给出模型的有效性。     

Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study

In previous work, we considered the representation of human decision-making processes in closed-form simulation models of conflict. An important element of this representation is the rapid planning process that embodies the processing of information for situation assessment to support a course of action decision (eg in a military headquarters). The application of this work is in support of operational analysis models for defence procurement and balance of investment. This paper describes the application of non-linear multi-attribute utility theory in conflict scenarios in order to extend the representation of the rapid planning process to account for a wider set of subjective attributes of the decision-maker. The results show, through examination of experimental data, that decision-making can be modelled through a particular class of utility functions. These utilities embody a geometry which allows us to classify the types of decision being made when there are conflicting objectives and when decision-makers adopt very different and subjective appraisals of constraints and beliefs in outcome. The experimental results help to demonstrate that the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training, experience and history of the decision-maker are central to the functional representations. This paper presents a way to capture this deeper representation of human decision-making in a way that is potentially useful for quantitative modelling using the rapid planning process as a basis.     

Learning genetic algorithm parameters using hidden Markov models

Genetic algorithms (GAs) are routinely used to search problem spaces of interest. A lesser known but growing group of applications of GAs is the modeling of so-called “evolutionary processes”, for example, organizational learning and group decision-making. Given such an application, we show it is possible to compute the likely GA parameter settings given observed populations of such an evolutionary process. We examine the parameter estimation process using estimation procedures for learning hidden Markov models, with mathematical models that exactly capture expected GA behavior. We then explore the sampling distributions relevant to this estimation problem using an experimental approach.     

考虑合作网络稳健性的三参照点决策方法

在合作网络的决策中,由于分散的成员之间缺乏直接交流及表达主观偏好的机会,关键成员会因为满意度下降而导致合作网络的退化甚至解体。为了维护合作网络的稳健性,本文基于特殊心理参照点对网络决策成员的影响,提出了一种合作网络中考虑关键节点的三参照点决策方法。首先,依据三参照点理论,考虑“底线”、“目标”、“现状”等参照点,构建符合决策者主观感受的满意度函数,进而计算网络中参与决策的成员对各方案的综合满意度;然后,依据网络节点(成员)在网络结构上的重要性,计算成员的决策权重;进一步地,计算全体成员的整体满意度,据此进行方案排序;最后,通过一个协同创新中心的决策案例说明本方法的可行性。     

Unifying temporal and organizational scales in multiscale decision-making

In enterprise systems, making decisions is a complex task for agents at all levels of the organizational hierarchy. To calculate an optimal course of action, an agent has to include uncertainties and the anticipated decisions of other agents, recognizing that they also engage in a stochastic, game-theoretic reasoning process. Furthermore, higher-level agents seek to align the interests of their subordinates by providing incentives. Incentive-giving and receiving agents need to include the effect of the incentive on their payoffs in the optimal strategy calculations. In this paper, we present a multiscale decision-making model that accounts for uncertainties and organizational interdependencies over time. Multiscale decision-making combines stochastic games with hierarchical Markov decision processes to model and solve multi-organizational-scale and multi-time-scale problems. This is the first model that unifies the organizational and temporal scales and can solve a 3-agent, 3-period problem. Solutions can be derived as analytic equations with low computational effort. We apply the model to a service enterprise challenge that illustrates the applicability and relevance of the model. This paper makes an important contribution to the foundation of multiscale decision theory and represents a key step towards solving the general X-agent, T-period problem.     

几乎可视重试排队模型研究

通过采用拟生灭过程理论,研究了几乎可视重试排队模型。从经济学角度讨论了顾客、社会及垄断者的决策问题,并且得到了三者最优的门限策略。通过数值算例描绘了服务报酬对三个最优门限的影响。研究结果表明,顾客决策产生的门限最大,社会决策产生的门限次之,垄断者的门限最小。最后,从社会和管理者的角度出发,给出了相应的管理启示:在不同服务报酬下,通过收取相应的入场费迫使顾客的行为分别满足社会和管理者的最优门限。     

Decision-Making at Board Level Using Decision Analysis: Two Case Studies

Two cases are described: the first in a newspaper publishing company concerned a strategic pricing decision; the second involved a property litigation problem in a food retailing company. Neither of the decision analysis models presented to the respective Boards of Directors was at all complex mathematically but they were highly influential on the decision-making processes. Indeed both were critical to the decisions made at those times. Some possible lessons are drawn from the cases with respect to these types of decision-making process, the type and complexity of model appropriate and information problems.     

Fuzzy-valued linguistic soft set theory and multi-attribute decision-making application

In this work, we propose the theory of fuzzy linguistic soft set (FLSS) to represent the uncertainty and multi-angle of view when decision makers evaluate an object during decision-making. FLSS integrates fuzzy set theory, linguistic variable and soft set theory. It allows decision makers to utilize linguistic variables to evaluate an object and utilize fuzzy values to describe the corresponding grade of their support of their decisions. Meanwhile, because of the flexibility of soft set, decision makers can use more than one pair of fuzzy-linguistic evaluations to express their opinions from multiple perspectives directly, if necessary. Therefore, it is more flexible and practical than traditional fuzzy set or 2-dimension uncertainty linguistic variable. We also develop a generalized weighted aggregation operator for FLSSs to solve corresponding decision-making issues. Finally, we give a numerical example to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

IP-MAGS: an incomplete preference-based multiple attribute group support system

In this research, we develop a group decision support system to deal with multiple attribute group decision-making problems, which involve getting incomplete judgements of individual preference and aggregating the judgements by means of the additive preference model. Dominance-based decision-making rules are built in and applied to obtain a group's preferred alternative. The proposed system, above all, allows for more various forms of incomplete judgements than prior systems that were designed to handle group decision problems. A user-friendly graphical interface enables users to easily encode their incomplete judgements. Further, the system helps individuals revise their preference judgements by referring them to their own decision results in comparison with the group's aggregated decision result. The system is a web-based application system, which enables bidirectional communications between individuals and the system. Any individual who is involved in a group decision-making problem is able to participate in the decision-making process from a remote site. Furthermore, we present a real-life case study on the selection of a branch office server that has been carried out using the proposed system.     

Raising the bar: strategic multi-criteria decision analysis

This paper discusses the use of multi-criteria decision analysis for supporting strategic decision making in organisations. It begins by exploring the notions of strategic decisions and the strategic decision-making process. We suggest that structuring strategic objectives, dealing with high levels of uncertainty about the future, as well as considering the interconnectedness of strategic options and their long-term consequences are key aspects of strategic decision making support. We then consider the discursive nature of the processes within which strategic decisions are created and negotiated. Our exploration of these concepts leads us to propose a number of adaptations to the standard multi-criteria decision analysis approach, if it were to provide effective strategic decision support, particularly in strategy workshops. We make suggestions on how to implement these proposals, and illustrate their potential with examples drawn from real-world interventions in which we have provided strategic decision support.     

Newsvendor-type models with decision-dependent uncertainty

Models for decision-making under uncertainty use probability distributions to represent variables whose values are unknown when the decisions are to be made. Often the distributions are estimated with observed data. Sometimes these variables depend on the decisions but the dependence is ignored in the decision maker??s model, that is, the decision maker models these variables as having an exogenous probability distribution independent of the decisions, whereas the probability distribution of the variables actually depend on the decisions. It has been shown in the context of revenue management problems that such modeling error can lead to systematic deterioration of decisions as the decision maker attempts to refine the estimates with observed data. Many questions remain to be addressed. Motivated by the revenue management, newsvendor, and a number of other problems, we consider a setting in which the optimal decision for the decision maker??s model is given by a particular quantile of the estimated distribution, and the empirical distribution is used as estimator. We give conditions under which the estimation and control process converges, and show that although in the limit the decision maker??s model appears to be consistent with the observed data, the modeling error can cause the limit decisions to be arbitrarily bad.     

基于马氏决策向量过程模型的有限阶段期望总报酬准则及其最优方程

在马氏决策向量过程模型的理论基础上,结合决策向量和相合度等新定义,进一步提出有限阶段期望总报酬准则和最优方程,并证明最优方程的解的存在性.     

不完备信息下的灰色粗糙集成决策模型侯亚林

In this paper, for multiple attribute decision-making problem in which attribute values are interval grey numbers and some of them are null values, a decision model based on grey rough sets integration with incomplete information is proposed. We put forward incidence degree coefficient formula for grey interval, by information entropy theory and analysis technique, the method and principle is presented to fill up null values. We also establish the method of grey interval incidence cluster. Because grey system theory and Rough set theory are complementary each other, decision table with preference information is obtained by the result of grey incidence cluster. An algorithm for inducing decision rules based on rough set theory and the dominance relationship is presented. In some extent, this algorithm can deal with decision-making problem in which the attribute values are interval grey numbers and some of them are null values. Contrasted with classical model of cluster decision-making, the algorithm has an advantage of flexibility and compatibility to new information.     

基于SPA的双枝模糊决策分析

将集对理论(SPA)与双枝模糊决策理论相结合,用集对分析的方法研究进行双枝模糊决策的方法,分别对双枝模糊决策因素域和双枝模糊决策的上枝、下枝和双枝进行了集对分析,给出了用SPA进行双枝模糊决策的性质,同时讨论了双枝模糊决策的动态分析方法,以及双枝模糊决策度强弱态势预测的方法,从而为双枝模糊决策理论的研究提供了新的视角和方法,为双枝模糊决策的应用提供了更方便的工具和更强的理论支持。     

Markov decision processes and strongly excessive functions

Strongly excessive functions play an important role in the theory of Markov decision processes and Markov games. In this paper the following question is investigated: What are the properties of Markov decision processes which possess a strongly excessive function? A probabilistic characterization is presented in the form of a random drift through a partitioned state space. For strongly excessive functions which have a positive lower bound a characterization is given in terms of the lifetime distribution of the process.Finally we give a characterization in terms of the spectral radius.     

The power to borrow and lend: investigating the cultural context as part of the lending decision

This article addresses social contextual aspects of the lending decision not as irrational dimensions to be improved upon, but as important information that adds value to the rational decision-making process. It advocates a broader conceptualization of behavioural finance and the adoption of behavioural science theory and methods into credit scoring research. The article illustrates the use of behavioural sciences by presenting the results of an experimental study on the role of financial and social-cultural information on the lending decision process of experienced lenders in the United States. The study found that social-cultural information influenced the decision process in patterned and predictable ways. A future research agenda is outlined, and implications for credit scoring research and practice are discussed.     

马尔可夫过程在生产运营项目实施中的应用研究

运用马氏决策规划方法,对企业产品的销售和利润状况进行分析和研究,建立了实施企业生产运营项目的预决策模型,为降低企业项目实施的风险,实现决策的长期效益趋于最优提供了有价值的理论与方法.     

模糊层次分析法及其在优化建材连锁配送方案中的应用

本文首先说明模糊ＡＨＰ方法是在传统的ＡＨＰ方法的基础上，考虑到人们对复杂事物判断的模糊性，提出程度分析和综合决策理论，并介绍了模糊ＡＨＰ方法的主要理论及步骤。最后把它用于建材连锁配送系统模式的评价，可将专家对诸方案指标体系所进行的带有模糊性判断，通过定量计算，转化为对连锁配送系统模式的排序，从而达到选优的目的。     

Group decision-making based on heterogeneous preference relations with self-confidence

Preference relations are very useful to express decision makers’ preferences over alternatives in the process of group decision-making. However, the multiple self-confidence levels are not considered in existing preference relations. In this study, we define the preference relation with self-confidence by taking multiple self-confidence levels into consideration, and we call it the preference relation with self-confidence. Furthermore, we present a two-stage linear programming model for estimating the collective preference vector for the group decision-making based on heterogeneous preference relations with self-confidence. Finally, numerical examples are used to illustrate the two-stage linear programming model, and a comparative analysis is carried out to show how self-confidence levels influence on the group decision-making results.