修复率可变化的表决系统可靠性分析

研究了具有维修速率可变化的k/n(G)表决可修系统,其中部件的工作时间和修理时间均服从负指数分布.开始时,当系统中的故障部件数小于某一阈值L时,修理工以较低的维修率修理故障的部件.如果修理工修理工作进展不顺利,故障部件数增加到阈值L时,将立即以较快的速度修理故障部件,此状态一直持续到系统中没有故障部件为止.使用马尔可夫过程理论和分析方法,得到了系统可用度、故障频度、系统首次故障前的平均时间等指标的表达式.进一步,讨论了不同条件下系统相关指标随系统参数变化的情况,并通过对特殊情形的讨论数值验证了所得结果的正确性.     

Non-parametric estimation of lifetime and repair time criteria for a semi-Markov process

In this Note, we model an industrial system by a semi-Markov process where failure and repair phenomena are in mutual competition. A non-parametric estimation method for system component lifetime and repair time distributions and for associated hazard rate functions is proposed. The lifetime and repair time empirical distributions are reduced to two Kaplan–Meier estimators. A numerical example from an industrial system with three components and one repair man modeled by a birth and death process is provided to illustrate the previous results. To cite this article: A.-L. Afchain, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 339 (2004).     

Analysis of R out of N systems with several repairmen,exponential life times and phase type repair times: An algorithmic approach

An R out of N repairable system consisting of N independent components is operating if at least R components are functioning. The system fails whenever the number of good components decreases from R to R − 1. A failed component is sent to a repair facility having several repairmen. Life times of working components are i.i.d random variables having an exponential distribution. Repair times are i.i.d random variables having a phase type distribution. Both cold and warm stand-by systems are considered. We present an algorithm deriving recursively in the number of repairmen the generator of the Markov process that governs the process. Then we derive formulas for the point availability, the limiting availability, the distribution of the down time and the up time. Numerical examples are given for various repair time distributions. The numerical examples show that the availability is not very sensitive to the repair time distribution while the mean up time and the mean down time might be very sensitive to the repair time distributions.     

具有位相型修理的离散时间可修排队系统

本文研究了具有一般独立输入，位相型修理的离散时间可修排队系统，假定服务台对顾客的服务时间和服务台寿命服从几何分布，运用矩阵解析方法我们给出系统嵌入在到达时刻的稳态队长分布和等待时间分布，并证明这些分布均为离散位相型分布．我们也得到在广义服务时间内服务台发生故障次数的分布，证明它服从一个修正的几何分布．我们对离散时间可修排队与连续时间可修排队进行了比较，说明这两种排队系统在一些性能指标方面的区别之处．最后我们通过一些数值例子说明在这类系统中顾客的到达过程、服务时间和服务台的故障率之间的关系．     

Reliability-based measures for a retrial system with mixed standby components

In this paper, we consider a retrial and repairable multi-component system with mixed warm and cold standby components. It is assumed that the failure times of primary (operating) and warm standby components follow exponential distributions. When a component fails, it is sent to a service station with a single server (repairman) and no waiting space. The failed component is repaired if the server is idle and it has to enter an orbit if the server is busy. The failed component in the orbit will try to get the repair service again after an exponentially distributed random time period. The repair time also has an exponential distribution. The mean time-to-failure, MTTF, and the steady-state availability, A_T(∞), are derived in this retrial and repairable system. Using a numerical example, we compare the systems with and without retrials in terms of the cost/benefit ratios. Sensitivity analysis for the mean time-to-failure and the steady-state availability are investigated as well.     

同时考虑故障相关和变故障率的可修系统可靠性计算

基于Copula相关性理论,考虑可修系统零部件工作寿命、故障部件修复时间之间的正相关性,且将零件工作寿命、修复时间放宽到一般连续分布,而不局限于指数分布.提出微时间差t→t+△t内系统一步状态转移矩阵概念,进而演算出状态转移密度矩阵,经系统状态方程,分别给出了任意时刻t单部件、串联型、二不同单元和一修理工组成的并联可修系统的可用度和稳态可用度计算模型.通过算例,说明该理论方法的可行性.     

具有修理延迟的两不同部件冷贮备系统的可靠性分析

研究了有修理延迟的两个不同部件和两个修理工组成的冷贮备系统.假定部件的工作寿命服从一般分布,故障后的延迟修理时间和修理时间均服从指数分布.利用马尔可夫更新过程、拉普拉斯变换和拉普拉斯-司梯阶变换工具,得到了系统的首次故障前时间、可用度和平均故障次数等可靠性指标.     

A deteriorating cold standby repairable system with priority in use

In this paper, a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components and one repairman is studied. In this system, it is assumed that the working time distributions and the repair time distributions of the two components are both exponential and component 1 is given priority in use. After repair, component 2 is “as good as new” while component 1 follows a geometric process repair. Under these assumptions, using the geometric process and a supplementary variable technique, some important reliability indices such as the system availability, reliability, mean time to first failure (MTTFF), rate of occurrence of failure (ROCOF) and the idle probability of the repairman are derived. A numerical example for the system reliability R(t) is given. And it is considered that a repair-replacement policy based on the working age T of component 1 under which the system is replaced when the working age of component 1 reaches T. Our problem is to determine an optimal policy T^∗ such that the long-run average cost per unit time of the system is minimized. The explicit expression for the long-run average cost per unit time of the system is evaluated, and the corresponding optimal replacement policy T^∗ can be found analytically or numerically. Another numerical example for replacement model is also given.     

Availability and maintenance of series systems subject to imperfect repair and correlated failure and repair

The series system is one of the most important and common systems in reliability theory and applications. This paper investigates availability, maintenance cost, and optimal maintenance policies of the series system with n constituting components under the general assumption that each component is subject to correlated failure and repair, imperfect repair, shut-off rule, and arbitrary distributions of times to failure and repair. Imperfect repair is modeled through the basic idea of the quasi renewal processes introduced by H. Wang, H. Pham, A quasi renewal process and its applications in imperfect maintenance, International Journal of Systems Science 27(10) (1996) 1055–1062; 28(12) (1997) 1329. System availability, mean time between system failures, mean time between system repairs, asymptotic fractional down time of the system, etc., are derived, and a numerical example is presented to compare with the existing models by R.E. Barlow, F. Proschan, Satistical Theory of Reliability of Life Testing, Holt, Renehart & Winston, NY, 1975. Then two classes of maintenance cost models are proposed and system maintenance cost rates are modeled. Finally, properties of system availability and maintenance cost rates are studied. Optimization models to optimize system availability and/or system maintenance costs are developed, and optimum system maintenance policies are discussed through a numerical example.     

Exact formulation of stochastic EMQ model for an unreliable production system

The purpose of this paper is to present an exact formulation of stochastic EMQ model for an unreliable production system under a general framework in which the time to machine failure, corrective (emergency) and preventive (regular) repair times are assumed to be random variables. For exact financial implications of the lot-sizing decisions, the EMQ model is formulated based on the net present value (NPV) approach. Then, by taking limitation on the discount rate, the traditional long-run average cost model is obtained. The criteria for the existence and uniqueness of the optimal production time in both the models are derived under general failure and specific repair time distributions. Numerical examples are devoted to find the optimal production policies of the developed models and examine the sensitivity of the parameters involved. Computational results show that the optimal decision based on the NPV approach is superior to that based on the long-run average cost approach, though the performance level strongly depends on the pertinent failure and repair time distributions.     

Behavior prediction of washing system in a paper industry using GA and fuzzy lambda–tau technique

Availability analysis has been an important issue in the design field of any Industrial system as the system structure has become more complicated. Also, the system availability is affected by many factors such as design, manufacturing, installation, etc., and so it may be extremely difficult to model, analyze and predict the failure behavior of the system. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for computing various performance measures, namely reliability, availability, MTBF (mean time between failures), ENOF (expected number of failures), failure rate and repair time, for any industrial system. In the proposed approach, the failure rates and repair times of all constituent components are obtained using genetic algorithms and then various performance measures are computed using fuzzy lambda–tau methodology. Washing system, the major part of paper industry is the subject of study. The interactions among the working components are modeled using Petri nets. Failure and repair rates are represented using triangular fuzzy numbers as they allow expert opinion, linguistic variables, operating conditions, uncertainty and imprecision in reliability information to be incorporated into system model. Based on calculated reliability parameters, a structured framework has been developed that may help the maintenance engineers to analyze and predict the system behavior.     

离散时间单重休假两部件并联可修系统的可靠性分析

利用离散向量Markov过程方法研究了离散时间单重休假两同型部件并联可修系统.在部件寿命服从几何分布,修理时间和修理工休假时间服从一般离散型概率分布的假定下,引入修理时间和休假时间尾概率,求得了系统的稳态可用度、稳态故障频度、待修概率、修理工空闲概率和休假概率,以及首次故障前平均时间等可靠性指标.并通过具体数值实例展示了离散向量马氏链状态转移频度的具体计算方法.     

General Distribution Function for Periods of Downtime of a Single System Exceeding a Limiting Downtime

A reparable two-state system whose components upon failure are replaced is considered. The time to failure and the time to repair of the components are a pair of renewal processes. The distribution of the random variable D(τ, t), which is defined as the random sum of those repair times of the system in the interval of time (0, t) that are greater than or equal to a constant time τ, is derived.     

Mean First-passage Times for a <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-out-of-<Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis> Sytem with Repair

Consider a k-out-of-n system where the lifetimes of the components are independent and identically distributed exponential (λ) random variables. Each component has its own repair facility, the repair times being independent and identically distributed exponential (μ) random variables, independent of the failure times. The mean operating time and mean repair time during the cycle between two successive breakdowns are found using renewal theory and the expression for the system availability. Using these, the mean first-passage times from any of the operating states of the system to the down state, and the mean first-passage times from any of the down states to the operating state are found recursively.     

修理设备可更换且有修理延迟的N部件串联系统分析

假定部件的寿命服从指数分布,修理延迟时间和修理时间均服从任意分布,并且修理设备的寿命服从指数分布,其更换时间服从任意分布的情况下,利用马尔可夫更新过程理论和拉普拉斯变换工具,研究了修理有延迟且修理设备可更换的n部件串联可修系统,求得了系统的可用度和(0,t]时间内的平均故障次数.进一步,在定义修理设备“广义忙期”下,利用全概率分解,提出了一种新的分析技术,讨论了修理设备的可靠性指标,得到修理设备的一些重要可靠性结果.     

The impact of order batching and picking area zoning on order picking system performance

This paper proposes an approximation model based on queuing network theory to analyze the impact of order batching and picking area zoning on the mean order throughput time in a pick-and-pass order picking system. The model includes the sorting process needed to sort the batch again by order. Service times at pick zones are assumed to follow general distributions. The first and second moments of service times at zones and the visiting probability of a batch of orders to a pick zone are derived. Based on this information, the mean throughput time of an arbitrary order in the order picking system is obtained. Results from a real application and simulation show that this approximation model provides acceptable accuracy for practical purposes. Furthermore, the proposed method is simple and fast and can be easily applied in the design and selection process of order picking systems.     

A new approach for solving repair limit problems

The usual approach to finding optimal repair limits on failure of a component is to use a finite state approximation Markov Decision Process (MDP). In this paper an alternative approach is introduced. Assuming a stochastically increasing repair cost, the optimum solution is shown to satisfy a certain two-point boundary condition, first order differential equation. An asymptotic formula for the optimal repair limit function is derived. Numerical solutions are obtained for some Weibull and Special Erlang distributed time to failure distributions. The structural form of the repair limit function results in a solution procedure which is several orders of magnitude faster than is achievable using previous methods.     

A continuity theorem and some counterexamples for the theory of maintained systems

The reliability of maintained systems is considered. A “continuity theorem” is presented which states that the stochastic behavior of a maintained system depends continuously on the stochastic behavior of its components. Examples of maintained systems with IFR component lifetimes and exponential repair times are presented for which time until first system failure is not NBU.     

A robust decomposition method for the analysis of production lines with unreliable machines and finite buffers

We consider production lines consisting of a series of machines separated by finite buffers. The processing time of each machine is deterministic and all the machines have the same processing time. All machines are subject to failures. As is usually the case for production systems we assume that the failures are operation dependent [3,7]. Moreover, we assume that the times to failure and the repair times are exponentially distributed. To analyze such systems, a decomposition method was proposed by Gershwin [13]. The computational efficiency of this method was later significantly improved by the introduction of the socalled DDX algorithm [5,6]. In general, this method provides fairly accurate results. There are, however, cases for which the accuracy of this decomposition method may not be acceptable. This is the case when the reliability parameters (average failure time and average repair time) of the different machines have different orders of magnitude. Such a situation may be encountered in real production lines. In [8], an improvement of Gershwin's original decomposition method has been proposed that in general provides more accurate results in the above mentioned situation. This other method is referred to as the Generalized Exponential (GE) method. The basic difference between the GEmethod and that of Gershwin is that it uses a twomoment approximation instead of a singlemoment approximation of the repair time distributions of the equivalent machines. There are, however, still cases for which the accuracy of the GEmethod is not as good as expected. This is the case, for example, when the buffer sizes are too small in comparison with the average repair time. We present in this paper a new decomposition method that is based on a better approximation of the repair time distributions. This method uses a threemoment approximation of the repair time distributions of the equivalent machines. Numerical results show that the new method is very robust in the sense that it seems to provide accurate results in all situations.     

Cost-effective production policy for a stochastic unreliable manufacturing system

^** Email: dohi{at}rel.hiroshima-u.ac.jp The paper deals with an economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ)problem for an unreliable manufacturing system in both continuous-and discrete-time settings. The time to machine failure andcorrective and preventive repair times of the production facilityare assumed to follow arbitrary probability distributions. Thetraditional method of determining the EMQ policy for a failure-pronemanufacturing system is based on the minimization of the long-runaverage cost in the steady state. In this paper, an alternativecriterion of optimality called cost effectiveness is introduced.The criteria for the existence and uniqueness of the optimalproduction time maximizing the cost effectiveness are derivedanalytically under general failure and specific repair (correctiveand preventive) time distributions. The optimal cost-effectiveand average cost production policies are numerically calculatedand compared in terms of their performances.