关于更新风险模型中破产概率的若干结果

进一步研究了更新风险模型中破产概率的问题，在假定索赔额分布是重尾时，证明了若干重要结果，得到了与经典的Crammer—Lunderberg模型相一致的结论．并义推广和改进了部分已有文献中的结果。     

有红利界限的平稳更新模型的红利现值

本文研究平稳更新风险模型下的红利现值,将其用普通更新模型下的红利现值表示出来.这个关系式统一并推广了已有的某些结果.     

Equivalent conditions of local asymptotics for the solutions of defective renewal equations, with applications

The paper obtains some equivalent conditions of local asymptotics for the solutions of defective renewal equations in the heavy-tailed case. As applications, the paper gives a different proof of a classical result about the local distribution of the supremum of a random walk. These results are also applied in examples involving the renewal function for terminating renewal processes and the age-dependent branching processes.     

一类相依两险种风险模型的分类破产概率

本文考虑文[1]中引入的一类索赔达到计数过程相关的两险种风险模型.利用更新方法,获得了该风险模型的分类破产概率的渐进结果,并给出了指数索赔情形下分类破产概率的表达式,从而改进了文[1]中的相关结果.     

风险模型中重尾随机变量和的若干大偏差结果

进一步研究随机变量部分和与随机和的大偏差,其中S(n)=∑ni=1Xi,S(t)=∑N(t)i=1Xi(t>0).{Xn,n≥1}是一个独立同分布的随机变量(未必是非负的)序列具有共同的分布F(定义于R上)和有限期望μ=EX1.{N(t),t≥0}是一个非负的整数值的随机变量的更新计数过程且与{Xn,n≥1}相互独立.本文在假定F∈C条件下,进一步推广并改进了由Klüppelberg等和Kaiw等人给出的一些大偏差结果.这些结果可应用到某些金融保险方面的一些特定的问题中去.     

Asymptotically minimax testing ofr>2 simple hypotheses

In this paper, we consider the problem of asymptotically minimax testing ofr≥2 simple hypotheses when a general stochastic process is observed. We establish general conditions for the exponential decrease of maximal probability errors of minimax tests as the number of observations increases. At the present time, similar results for testing several multinomial schemes were obtained by Salihov [8]. Similar results for testing two simple hypotheses were obtained in [5]. In the proofs of the main results, we use the theory of large deviations ([3], [2]). In Sec. 1, the main result is proved. In Secs. 2–4, we analyze the i.i.d. case, nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, and renewal processes as examples. Published in Lietuvos Matematikos Rinkinys, Vol. 40, No. 3, pp. 313–320, July–September, 2000.     

A study of renewal processes with infinite means

This study concerns the spent lifetime characteristic of renewal processes with infinite means. Recently, Mitov and Yanev established some important limit theorems on the asymptotic behavior of the spent lifetime which extend earlier classical results of Feller and Erickson. Here, we study the rates of convergence associated with these limit theorems by means of Monte Carlo simulation. We also identify the forms of finite approximations associated with the limits. Our simulation study leads to several questions of theoretical importance, which, if properly addressed, could open the way to applications in a variety of areas. Published in Lietuvos Matematikos Rinkinys, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 386–402, July–September, 2006.     

Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation for Reinforced Markov Renewal Processes

Starting from the definitions and the properties of reinforced renewal processes and reinforced Markov renewal processes, we characterize, via exchangeability and de Finetti’s representation theorem, a prior that consists of a family of Dirichlet distributions on the space of Markov transition matrices and beta-Stacy processes on distribution functions. Then, we show that this family is conjugate and give some estimate results.

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Abelian and Tauberian theorems for the Laplace transform of functions in several variables

Using two kinds of multivariate regular variation we prove several Abel-Tauber theorems for the Laplace transform of functions in several variables. We generalize some power series results of Alpar and apply our results in multivariate renewal theory.     

常利率下复合泊松-更新风险模型的破产问题

本文研究了常数利率下, 保费收入为复合Poisson 过程, 理赔到达过程为一般更新过程的风险模型. 利用离散化的方法, 获得了该风险模型的破产概率、破产时余额分布及破产前瞬间余额分布的级数展开式, 推广了文[1] 和文[2] 中的相关结果.     

An asymptotic formula of the Hellinger integral for renewal processes

Asymptotic formulas of the Hellinger integral are used in the investigation of properties of optimal estimates and statistical criteria. For a certain class of renewal processes, this formula was obtained by the author in [Lith. Math. J.,38(2), 131–143 (1998)]. In this paper, we obtain such a formula for all renewal processes whose intermediate renewal moments have absolutely continuous distributions. We use the traditional representation of the Hellinger integral and the theory of large deviations. Šiauliai University, Višinskio 25, 5400 Šiauliai, Lithuania. Translated from Lietuvos Matematikos Rinkinys, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 493–497, October–December, 1999. Translated by V. Mackevičius     

常利率下复合泊松-更新风险模型的破产问题

本文研究了常数利率下,保费收入为复合Poisson过程,理赔到达过程为一般更新过程的风险模型.利用离散化的方法,获得了该风险模型的破产概率、破产时余额分布及破产前瞬间余额分布的级数展开式,推广了文[1]和文[2]中的相关结果.     

Necessary conditions for renewal processes approximating to Wiener processes

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On performance comparison of MR/GI/1 queues

In this paper we are interested in the effect that dependencies in the arrival process to a queue have on queueing properties such as mean queue length and mean waiting time. We start with a review of the well known relations used to compare random variables and random vectors, e.g., stochastic orderings, stochastic increasing convexity, and strong stochastic increasing concavity. These relations and others are used to compare interarrival times in Markov renewal processes first in the case where the interarrival time distributions depend only on the current state in the underlying Markov chain and then in the general case where these interarrivai times depend on both the current state and the next state in that chain. These results are used to study a problem previously considered by Patuwo et al. [14].Then, in order to keep the marginal distributions of the interarrivai times constant, we build a particular transition matrix for the underlying Markov chain depending on a single parameter,p. This Markov renewal process is used in the Patuwo et al. [14] problem so as to investigate the behavior of the mean queue length and mean waiting time on a correlation measure depending only onp. As constructed, the interarrival time distributions do not depend onp so that the effects we find depend only on correlation in the arrival process.As a result of this latter construction, we find that the mean queue length is always larger in the case where correlations are non-zero than they are in the more usual case of renewal arrivals (i.e., where the correlations are zero). The implications of our results are clear.     

On Numerical Solution of the Markov Renewal Equation: Tight Upper and Lower Kernel Bounds

We develop tight bounds and a fast parallel algorithm to compute the Markov renewal kernel. Knowledge of the kernel allows us to solve Markov renewal equations numerically to study non-steady state behavior in a finite state Markov renewal process. Computational error and numerical stability for computing the bounds in parallel are discussed using well-known results from numerical analysis. We use our algorithm and computed bounds to study the expected number of departures as a function of time for a two node overflow queueing network.     

EQUIVALENT CONDITIONS OF LOCAL ASYMPTOTICS FOR THE OVERSHOOT OF A RANDOM WALK WITH HEAVY-TAILED INCREMENTS

This article gives the equivalent conditions of the local asymptotics for the overshoot of a random walk with heavy-tailed increments, from which we find that the above asymptotics are different from the local asymptotics for the supremum of the random walk. To do this, the article first extends and improves some existing results about the solutions of renewal equations.     

Bounds for the variance of certain stationary point processes

For the variance of stationary renewal and alternating renewal processes N_n(·) the paper establishes upper and lower bounds of the form

$\text{?B}{}_1\text{?varN}{}_8\text{(0,x–Aλx?B}{}_2\text{(0<x<∞)}$

, where λ=EN₈(0,1), with constants A, B₁ and B₂ that depend on the first three moments of the interval distributions for the processes concerned. These results are consistent with the value of the constant A for a general stationary point process suggested by Cox in 1963 [1].     

Optimal replacement policy for obsolete components with general failure rates

Identical components are considered, which become obsolete once new‐type ones are available, more reliable and less energy consuming. We envision different possible replacement strategies for the old‐type components by the new‐type ones: either purely preventive, where all old‐type components are replaced as soon as the new‐type ones are available; either purely corrective, where the old‐type ones are replaced by new‐type ones only at failure; or a mixture of both strategies, where the old‐type ones are first replaced at failure by new‐type ones and next simultaneously preventively replaced after a fixed number of failed old‐type components. To evaluate the respective value of each possible strategy, a cost function is considered, which represents the mean total cost on some finite time interval [0, t]. This function takes into account replacement costs, with economical dependence between simultaneous replacements, and also some energy consumption (and/or production) cost, with a constant rate per unit time. A full analytical expression is provided for the cost function induced by each possible replacement strategy. The optimal strategy is derived in long‐time run. Numerical experiments conclude the paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Bounds for Semi-Markovian Quantities and Application to Reliability

We propose new easily computable bounds for different quantities which are solutions of Markov renewal equations linked to some continuous-time semi-Markov process (SMP). The idea is to construct two new discrete-time SMP which bound the initial SMP in some sense. The solution of a Markov renewal equation linked to the initial SMP is then shown to be bounded by solutions of Markov renewal equations linked to the two discrete time SMP. Also, the bounds are proved to converge. To illustrate the results, numerical bounds are provided for two quantities from the reliability field: mean sojourn times and probability transitions.      

多重延迟的关键更新定理及其在风险理论中的应用

利用广义局部次指数分布族的性质,讨论了带有多重延迟且Lundberg指数不存在时的关键更新定理,所得结果包含了重尾和轻尾的情形.将此结果应用到平稳更新风险模型,得到了该模型在破产时亏损额分布的局部渐近性质.