n人可信策略博弈

本文研究模糊支付n人策略博弈,由于支付信息的不完全性,模糊支付可视为模糊变量。基于可信性理论,在不同的决策环境中引入模糊排序方法表征支付者行为。因此,本文定义四种可信均衡,等价于纳什均衡。其次证明了可信均衡存在性定理。除此之外,在现实策略博弈中用算例说明四种可信均衡的现实意义。最后讨论四种可信均衡之间可能存在的关系。     

The Further Study of Safety Stock under Uncertain Environment

Corresponding to stochastic variable, it is a better choice to describe the market demand uncertainty of innovative products with fuzzy variable because no historical data is available. Traditionally, possibility measure is regarded as the parallel concept of probability measure. However, it is, in fact, the credibility measure that plays the role of probability measure! Based on the credibility theory, this paper studies how to evaluate the safety stock of enterprise given desired product availability when the node enterprise market demand of supply chain is described by Gauss fuzzy variable. Thereinafter, the authors discuss the impact of required product availability and demand uncertainty on safety stock, compare the correlative issues with stochastic demand, and get some useful results.     

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean–variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.     

模糊环境下提前期对安全库存的影响

设置安全库存可以有效管理供应链的不确定性,提高服务水平,降低缺货风险.本文基于可信性理论,研究了当需求为模糊变量,提前期分别为固定值和模糊变量时.节点企业安全库存量的确定问题.通过实际算例,分析了模糊环境下提前期对安全库存量的影响.     

两阶段模糊运输期望值模型及其逼近方法

基于可信性理论和两阶段模糊优化方法,提出一类带有模糊参数的两阶段运输期望值模型.由于提出运输问题包含带有无限支撑的模糊变量系数,因此它是一个无限堆的优化问题.然后,讨论两阶段模糊运输期望值问题的逼近方法并且将逼近方法嵌套到遗传算法中产生一个基于遗传算法的逼近方法求解提出的两阶段模糊运输期望值问题.最后,给出一个数值例子...     

Fuzzy random renewal process and renewal reward process

So far, there have been several concepts about fuzzy random variables and their expected values in literature. One of the concepts defined by Liu and Liu (2003a) is that the fuzzy random variable is a measurable function from a probability space to a collection of fuzzy variables and its expected value is described as a scalar number. Based on the concepts, this paper addresses two processes—fuzzy random renewal process and fuzzy random renewal reward process. In the fuzzy random renewal process, the interarrival times are characterized as fuzzy random variables and a fuzzy random elementary renewal theorem on the limit value of the expected renewal rate of the process is presented. In the fuzzy random renewal reward process, both the interarrival times and rewards are depicted as fuzzy random variables and a fuzzy random renewal reward theorem on the limit value of the long-run expected reward per unit time is provided. The results obtained in this paper coincide with those in stochastic case or in fuzzy case when the fuzzy random variables degenerate to random variables or to fuzzy variables.     

Optimal production inventory policy for defective items with fuzzy time period

In this paper, an optimal production inventory model with fuzzy time period and fuzzy inventory costs for defective items is formulated and solved under fuzzy space constraint. Here, the rate of production is assumed to be a function of time and considered as a control variable. Also the demand is linearly stock dependent. The defective rate is taken as random, the inventory holding cost and production cost are imprecise. The fuzzy parameters are converted to crisp ones using credibility measure theory. The different items have the different imprecise time periods and the minimization of cost for each item leads to a multi-objective optimization problem. The model is under the single management house and desired inventory level and product cost for each item are prescribed. The multi-objective problem is reduced to a single objective problem using Global Criteria Method (GCM) and solved with the help of Fuzzy Riemann Integral (FRI) method, Kuhn–Tucker condition and Generalised Reduced Gradient (GRG) technique. In optimum results including production functions and corresponding optimum costs for the different models are obtained and then are presented in tabular forms.     

模糊需求下的供应链收益共享契约模型

在模糊需求环境下,研究由单一供应商和零售商组成的两级供应链系统的协调机制问题。将市场需求视为模糊变量,建立不确定理论下,基于可信性分布的集成供应链模型和收益共享契约模型,并给出了模型中的最优策略。最后,以三角形模糊变量为例,通过数值算例对模型中的参数进行了求解,并分析批发价格和收益系数对其他参数的影响。研究结果表明,零售商的最优订购量在模糊需求中心点的左、右浮动,并随着零售价格的提高而增加;不同的收益系数对应不同的批发价格策略;通过改变收益系数可以实现供应链成员之间的完美协调。     

Credibilistic Markov decision processes: The average case

Using a concept of random fuzzy variables in credibility theory, we formulate a credibilistic model for unichain Markov decision processes under average criteria. And a credibilistically optimal policy is defined and obtained by solving the corresponding non-linear mathematical programming. Also we give a computational example to illustrate the effectiveness of our new model.     

Using greedy clustering method to solve capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands

In this paper, the capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (CLRP-FD) is considered. In CLRP-FD, facility location problem (FLP) and vehicle routing problem (VRP) are observed simultaneously. Indeed, the vehicles and the depots have a predefined capacity to serve the customers that have fuzzy demands. To model this problem, a fuzzy chance constrained programming model of that is designed based upon the fuzzy credibility theory. To solve this problem, a greedy clustering method (GCM) including the stochastic simulation is proposed. To obtain the best value of the dispatcher preference index of the model and to analyze its influence on the final solution, numerical experiments are carried out. Finally, to show the performance of the greedy clustering method, associated results are compared with the lower bound of the solutions.     

Methods of critical value reduction for type-2 fuzzy variables and their applications

A type-2 fuzzy variable is a map from a fuzzy possibility space to the real number space; it is an appropriate tool for describing type-2 fuzziness. This paper first presents three kinds of critical values (CVs) for a regular fuzzy variable (RFV), and proposes three novel methods of reduction for a type-2 fuzzy variable. Secondly, this paper applies the reduction methods to data envelopment analysis (DEA) models with type-2 fuzzy inputs and outputs, and develops a new class of generalized credibility DEA models. According to the properties of generalized credibility, when the inputs and outputs are mutually independent type-2 triangular fuzzy variables, we can turn the proposed fuzzy DEA model into its equivalent parametric programming problem, in which the parameters can be used to characterize the degree of uncertainty about type-2 fuzziness. For any given parameters, the parametric programming model becomes a linear programming one that can be solved using standard optimization solvers. Finally, one numerical example is provided to illustrate the modeling idea and the efficiency of the proposed DEA model.     

二维模糊向量可信性分布的联合熵及其性质

基于可信性测度, 定义了二维离散型模糊向量和二维连续型模糊向量的联合熵, 并研究了它们的极小性、极大性、单调性, 以及二维简单模糊向量的扩展性和严格凹性.     

模糊批量生产计划问题的可信性规划模型与算法

描述模糊单位利润、模糊生产能力以及模糊需求下的批量生产计划,并应用可信性规划建立了模型.当模糊变量是梯形模糊数时,我们将模糊模型转化为确定意义下的模型.为了求解优化模型,我们设计了基于模糊模拟的遗传算法.最后,通过一个数值例子说明算法的有效性.     

Solving the dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands by hybrid heuristic algorithm

In this paper, the dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (DCLRP-FD) is considered. In the DCLRP-FD, facility location problem and vehicle routing problem are solved on a time horizon. Decisions concerning facility locations are permitted to be made only in the first time period of the planning horizon but, the routing decisions may be changed in each time period. Furthermore, the vehicles and depots have a predefined capacity to serve the customers with altering demands during the time horizon. It is assumed that the demands of customers are fuzzy variables. To model the DCLRP-FD, a fuzzy chance-constrained programming is designed based upon the fuzzy credibility theory. To solve this problem, a hybrid heuristic algorithm (HHA) with four phases including the stochastic simulation and a local search method are proposed. To achieve the best value of two parameters of the model, the dispatcher preference index (DPI) and the assignment preference index (API), and to analyze their influences on the final solution, numerical experiments are carried out. Moreover, the efficiency of the HHA is demonstrated via comparing with the lower bound of solutions and by using a standard benchmark set of test problems. The numerical examples show that the proposed algorithm is robust and could be used in real world problems.     

可变集—可变模糊集的发展及其在水资源系统中的应用

将可变模糊集理论,从模糊系统发展到可变模糊一清晰系统.给出可变集的对立公理与可变集定义,给出基于可变集的唯物辩证法三大基本规律的数学定理对立统一、质量互变与否定的否定定理.给出可变集在地区水资源可持续利用程度变化与发展态势的评估价原理、方法与应用实例.不仅对技术科学,而且对哲学等科学均有重要的科学意义.     

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA): Model and ranking method

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a very effective method to evaluate the relative efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs). Since the data of production processes cannot be precisely measured in some cases, the uncertain theory has played an important role in DEA. This paper attempts to extend the traditional DEA models to a fuzzy framework, thus producing a fuzzy DEA model based on credibility measure. Following is a method of ranking all the DMUs. In order to solve the fuzzy model, we have designed the hybrid algorithm combined with fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm. When the inputs and outputs are all trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy variables, the model can be transformed to linear programming. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the fuzzy DEA model and the method of ranking all the DMUs.     

Mean-variance-skewness model for portfolio selection with fuzzy returns

Numerous empirical studies show that portfolio returns are generally asymmetric, and investors would prefer a portfolio return with larger degree of asymmetry when the mean value and variance are same. In order to measure the asymmetry of fuzzy portfolio return, a concept of skewness is defined as the third central moment in this paper, and its mathematical properties are studied. As an extension of the fuzzy mean-variance model, a mean-variance-skewness model is presented and the corresponding variations are also considered. In order to solve the proposed models, a genetic algorithm integrating fuzzy simulation is designed. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

An expected regret minimization portfolio selection model

Fuzzy portfolio selection has been widely studied within the framework of the credibility theory. However, all existing models provide only concentrated investment solutions, which contradicts the risk diversification concept in the classical portfolio selection theory. In this paper, we propose an expected regret minimization model, which minimizes the expected value of the distance between the maximum return and the obtained return associated with each portfolio. We prove that our model is advantageous for obtaining distributive investment and reducing investor regret. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by using an example of a portfolio selection problem comprising ten securities in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index.     

Foundation of credibilistic logic

In this paper, credibilistic logic is introduced as a new branch of uncertain logic system by explaining the truth value of fuzzy formula as credibility value. First, credibilistic truth value is introduced on the basis of fuzzy proposition and fuzzy formula, and the consistency between credibilistic logic and classical logic is proved on the basis of some important properties about truth values. Furthermore, a credibilistic modus ponens and a credibilistic modus tollens are presented. Finally, a comparison between credibilistic logic and possibilistic logic is given.     

Asymptotic structural characteristics of fuzzy measure and their applications

In fuzzy measure theory, as Sugeno's fuzzy measures lose additivity in general, the concept ‘almost’, which is well known in classical measure theory, splits into two different concepts, ‘almost’ and ‘pseudo-almost’. In order to replace the additivity, it is quite necessary to investigate some asymptotic behaviors of a fuzzy measure at sequences of sets which are called ‘waxing’ and ‘waning’, and to introduce some new concepts, such as ‘autocontinuity’, ‘converse-autocontinuity’ and ‘pseudo-autocontinuity’. These concepts describe some asymptotic structural characteristics of a fuzzy measure.In this paper, by means of the asymptotic structural characteristics of fuzzy measure, we also give four forms of generalization for both Egoroff's theorem, Riesz's theorem and Lebesgue's theorem respectively, and prove the almost everywhere (pseudo-almost everywhere) convergence theorem, the convergence in measure (pseudo-in measure) theorem of the sequence of fuzzy integrals. In the last two theorems, the employed conditions are not only sufficient, but also necessary.