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基于期权理论,本文研究了商业银行的客户企业贷款预期违约概率,并在此基础上分析了银行违约率最小的贷款额度. 相似文献
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本文在M ogens B ladt和T ina H av iid R ydberg无市场假设,仅利用价格过程的实际概率的期权保险精算定价模型的基础上,得出了标的资产服从几何分数布朗运动的欧式期权定价公式,并说明了几何布朗运动是本文的一种特殊情况. 相似文献
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利用保险精算方法,将期权定价问题转化为纯保费确定问题,根据股票价格过程的实际概率测度推导出了无风险利率为常数时,固定执行价格下回望看涨期权定价公式,验证了当标的资产的期望收益率等于无风险利率时,保险精算定价和风险中性定价的一致性.最后通过实例分析了保险精算价格和风险中性价格的差异,并利用Matlab编程得到了保险精算价格与标的资产期望收益率之间的关系. 相似文献
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信用风险下的变化类型权证期权定价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
主要利用公司价值模型将信用风险引入到变化类型权证期权定价中,通过鞅和概率的方法,推导出信用风险下的变化类型权证期权的定价公式,给出了更切合实际的期权定价. 相似文献
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利用期权鞅式定价理论将分红保险不确定的分红与保证最低收益的期权成本量化,结合保险精算原理将量化的成本计算进分红保险纯保费中,并对保险公司分红保险纯保费定价进行研究。 相似文献
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跳扩散模型中的测度变换与期权定价 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
本文研究在跳扩散模型中概率测度的变换对于期权定价的影响.通过选取不同的记价单位以及相应的概率测度,简化了期权定价中一些复杂的理论,得到了在具有随机利率的跳扩散模型中欧式期权的定价公式以及关于跳扩散模型中交换期权、亚式期权等新型期权的定性、定解性质. 相似文献
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《数学的实践与认识》2013,(24)
房价涨幅过快过高在中国房产市场已经是一个不容回避的问题.房产期权作为一种平衡买卖双方利益进行风险管理的有效工具应运而生.在Black-Scholes定价模型的基础上,考虑违约风险和交易费用这两个影响房产期权定价的重要因素,采用未定权益思想方法和△-对冲技巧建立了房产期权的定价模型,然后对模型进行求解,获得相应的数学公式,为考虑具有违约风险和交易费用影响下房产期权进行定价. 相似文献
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本文针对欧式脆弱期权首先给出一个定价模型.在该模型中,期权对手方的企业资产价值服从双指数跳跃-扩散过程并且与期权标的资产的价格相关.双跳过程能够刻画对手方资产价值的突然提高或下降,从而对脆弱期权的定价提供更深层次的经济学解释.基于我们推导出的关于双跳过程的首次到达时间与相关Brownian运动的联合Laplace变换的显性表达式,并结合提前违约条件,本文通过二维Laplace变换给出关于欧式脆弱期权价格的的一个简单公式.采用数值Laplace逆变换方法,可实现利用该公式对欧式脆弱期权的定价.数值计算的结果表明,我们得到的定价公式是正确和有效的. 相似文献
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运用存款保险的期望损失定价方法和Shapley值法,建立了考虑银行违约/破产外部效应的存款保险定价模型。模型中度量的破产成本不仅考虑了银行破产清算过程中其自身资产价值的损失,还考虑了银行违约/破产的负外部效应——可能增加其他银行的破产损失,据此确定的存款保险保费反映了各银行对系统总破产成本的边际贡献。为验证模型效果,构造了三种情景进行模拟分析,结果表明:存款保险保费与银行系统对破产银行资产的收购能力负相关,且负相关程度随经济形势的恶化而加剧;保费与整个银行系统参保银行数目之间也呈负相关关系。 相似文献
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本文探讨具有违约风险的人寿保险的最优定价.我们从Black-Scholes的期权定价模型出发,考虑风险管理和准备金的要求,根据一次支付和均衡支付这两种不同的假设分别建立两个优化模型,并且借助于优化技术获得最优解.数量化分析结果表明,两个模型的最优价格对于利息率参数以及非索赔成本的变化都不敏感.这说明这两个模型是稳定的,而且是实用的. 相似文献
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Apart from heteronomy exit events such as, for example credit default or death, several financial agreements allow policy holders to voluntarily terminate the contract. Examples include callable mortgages or life insurance contracts. For the contractual counterpart, the result is a cash‐flow uncertainty called prepayment risk. Despite the high relevance of this implicit option, only few portfolio models consider both a default and a cancellability feature. On a portfolio level, this is especially critical because empirical observations of the mortgage market suggest that prepayment risk is an important determinant for the pricing of mortgage‐backed securities. Furthermore, defaults and prepayments tend to occur in clusters, and there is evidence for a negative association between the two risks. This paper presents a realistic and tractable portfolio model that takes into account these observations. Technically, we rely on an Archimedean dependence structure. A suitable parameterization allows to fit the likelihood of default and prepayment clusters separately and accounts for the postulated negative interdependence. Moreover, this structure turns out to be tractable enough for real‐time evaluation of portfolio derivatives. As an application, the pricing of loan credit default swaps, an example of a portfolio derivative that includes a cancellability feature, is discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The class of reduced form models is
a very important class of credit risk models, and the modelling of
the default dependence structure is essential in the reduced form
models. This paper models dependent defaults under a
thinning-dependent structure in the reduced form framework. In our
tractable model, the joint survival probability for correlated
defaults can be derived, and hence the CDS premium rates (with or
without counterparty risk) are given in closed form. The numerical
result shows that the thinning-dependent structure is effective to
model the default dependence. 相似文献
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In this paper we use an intensity-based framework to analyze and compute the correlated default probabilities, both in finance and actuarial sciences, following the idea of “change of measure” initiated by Collin-Dufresne et al. (2004). Our method is based on a representation theorem for joint survival probability among an arbitrary number of defaults, which works particularly effectively for certain types of correlated default models, including the counter-party risk models of Jarrow and Yu (2001) and related problems such as the phenomenon of “flight to quality”. The results are also useful in studying the recently observed dependent mortality for married couples involving spousal bereavement. In particular we study in details a problem of pricing Universal Variable Life (UVL) insurance products. The explicit formulae for the joint-life status and last-survivor status (or equivalently, the probability distribution of first-to-default and last-to-default in a multi-firm setting) enable us to derive the explicit solution to the indifference pricing formula without using any advanced results in partial differential equations. 相似文献
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《Insurance: Mathematics and Economics》2011,48(3):337-351
In this paper we use an intensity-based framework to analyze and compute the correlated default probabilities, both in finance and actuarial sciences, following the idea of “change of measure” initiated by Collin-Dufresne et al. (2004). Our method is based on a representation theorem for joint survival probability among an arbitrary number of defaults, which works particularly effectively for certain types of correlated default models, including the counter-party risk models of Jarrow and Yu (2001) and related problems such as the phenomenon of “flight to quality”. The results are also useful in studying the recently observed dependent mortality for married couples involving spousal bereavement. In particular we study in details a problem of pricing Universal Variable Life (UVL) insurance products. The explicit formulae for the joint-life status and last-survivor status (or equivalently, the probability distribution of first-to-default and last-to-default in a multi-firm setting) enable us to derive the explicit solution to the indifference pricing formula without using any advanced results in partial differential equations. 相似文献
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一篮子信用违约互换定价的偏微分方程方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过对一篮子信用违约互换的结构性分析,在约化法框架下,用PDE方法提出一个新的计算具有违约相关性的多个公司联合生存概率的方法,在此基础上得到信用互换到期之前一篮子中违约数量的概率分布.应用这个概率分布,在条件独立的假定下,先后建立了首次违约、二次违约的信用违约互换定价模型,并用PDE方法给出了定价的显性表达式,并进一步扩展到解决m次违约的信用违约互换的定价问题. 相似文献
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在贷款的买方市场或充分竞争的金融环境中,贷款利率不会由银行自己说了算,因此建立银企双方共同接受的贷款利率定价模型在现实中尤为重要。本文采用区间数的形式反映存款利息支出率、违约风险补偿率等定价指标的不确定性,以已结清贷款最小定价效率、最大定价效率组成的贷款定价效率区间为目标,以新贷款的贷款利率为决策变量,通过逆向求解区间数DEA模型反推出新贷款的贷款利率区间,建立了基于区间数DEA的贷款定价模型。本文的创新与特色一是以已结清贷款的存款利息支出率、目标利润率等指标为输入,以已结清贷款的贷款利率为输出,利用DEA模型求得已结清贷款的实际最小效率及最大效率。二是以银企双方均可接受的贷款定价效率区间为目标、以新贷款的存款利息支出率等用区间数形式表示的贷款成本为投入,反推出贷款利率的取值区间。三是通过区间数形式来反映违约风险补偿率、目标利润率等定价指标的不确定性,改变了现有研究将目标利润、贷款费用、违约损失等变量看作常数来定价的不合理现状。研究表明:存款利息支出率、费用支出率、违约风险补偿率及目标利润率均与贷款利率成正比。企业提高在贷款银行中的资金结算比率、存贷比率可以降低贷款利率。 相似文献