An empirical study on the Lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions

This paper presents an empirical study on the Lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions. Three issues are evaluated: (i) the specification of the market share response model; (ii) the effect of inflation on the estimation of the response model; and (iii) the performance of competitive strategies. It is shown that (a) the square root function that is used in previous studies is often inappropriate to characterize the market share response model; (b) market share variations are more responsive to current advertising expenditures; (c) closed-loop Nash equilibrium strategies are better competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits than open-loop Nash equilibrium strategies; and (d), finally, general perfect equilibria Nash equilibrium strategies developed by Case are usually not good competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits.     

A differential oligopoly game with differentiated goods and sticky prices

We investigate a dynamic oligopoly game where goods are differentiated and prices are sticky. We study the open-loop and the closed-loop memoryless Nash equilibrium, and show that the latter equilibrium entails a larger level of steady state production as compared to the former; both equilibria entail a larger level of production in steady state than the static game. We also study the effects of price stickiness and product differentiation upon the steady state equilibrium allocation and profits. The per-firm equilibrium output is increasing in both product differentiation and price stickiness, while profits are increasing in both product differentiation and the speed of price adjustment. The steady state social welfare monotonically increases in the speed of price adjustment, and the overproduction entailed by dynamic competition has beneficial effect from a social standpoint.     

Optimal production in a competitive market under yield uncertainty

Motivated by the U.S. influenza vaccine market, we study the impact of random yield and production capacity on the number of firms, total supply, consumer surplus and social welfare in a market with identical suppliers. We formulate a two-stage game with endogenous entry, where each entering firm aims to maximize its profit under yield uncertainty subject to a production capacity constraint. We show that if firms produce full capacity in the equilibrium, then there are fewer firms in the equilibrium compared to the social optimum even for small levels of yield uncertainty. Furthermore, we prove that if firms do not produce full capacity in the equilibrium, they will not produce full capacity in the social optimum.     

A dynamic free-entry oligopoly with sluggish entry and exit adjustments

We study a dynamic free-entry oligopoly with sluggish entry and exit of firms under general demand and cost functions. We show that the number of firms in a steady-state open-loop solution for a dynamic free-entry oligopoly is smaller than that at static equilibrium and that the number of firms in a steady-state memoryless closed-loop solution is larger than that in an open-loop solution.     

Dynamic Advertising Under Vertical Product Differentiation

We investigate a dynamic advertising model where product quality is endogenous. In the differential game between single-product firms, there exists a parameter range where the low-quality firm uses a more efficient advertising technology and earns higher profits than the rival. Moreover, we show that equilibrium qualities are the same under duopoly, multiproduct monopoly, and social planning, the only distortion being concerned with the output levels.     

A duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising

This paper proposes a differential game model of competitive advertising decisions for non-durable products by extending the Lanchester model and the Deal model of competitive advertising in the literature. The proposed model is compared empirically with the Lanchester model for model fitting and forecast accuracy. It is shown that the model is suitable for an actual market and out-performs the Lanchester model in forecast accuracy. The model provides a sensible modeling alternative to the Lanchester model for the study of dynamic competitive advertising decisions. Necessary and sufficient conditions for open-loop and closed-loop Nash equilibrium solutions to the model are discussed. A numerical algorithm for open-loop and closed-loop Nash strategies to the model is developed.     

Finding all pure strategy Nash equilibria in a planar location game

In this paper, we deal with a planar location-price game where firms first select their locations and then set delivered prices in order to maximize their profits. If firms set the equilibrium prices in the second stage, the game is reduced to a location game for which pure strategy Nash equilibria are studied assuming that the marginal delivered cost is proportional to the distance between the customer and the facility from which it is served. We present characterizations of local and global Nash equilibria. Then an algorithm is shown in order to find all possible Nash equilibrium pairs of locations. The minimization of the social cost leads to a Nash equilibrium. An example shows that there may exist multiple Nash equilibria which are not minimizers of the social cost.     

Pure-strategy Nash equilibria in an advertising game with interference

Two manufacturers produce substitutable goods for a homogeneous market. The advertising efforts of the two manufacturers determine the demand for the goods and interfere negatively with each other. The demand of each good is a piecewise linear function of the product goodwill, and the latter is a linear function of advertising efforts. In a game with two competing profit-maximizing manufacturers who have access to a set of several advertising media, the pure-strategy Nash equilibria are characterized and their existence is shown.     

Open versus closed loop capacity equilibria in electricity markets under perfect and oligopolistic competition

We consider two game-theoretic models of the generation capacity expansion problem in liberalized electricity markets. The first is an open loop equilibrium model, where generation companies simultaneously choose capacities and quantities to maximize their individual profit. The second is a closed loop model, in which companies first choose capacities maximizing their profit anticipating the market equilibrium outcomes in the second stage. The latter problem is an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints. In both models, the intensity of competition among producers in the energy market is frequently represented using conjectural variations. Considering one load period, we show that for any choice of conjectural variations ranging from perfect competition to Cournot, the closed loop equilibrium coincides with the Cournot open loop equilibrium, thereby obtaining a ‘Kreps and Scheinkman’-like result and extending it to arbitrary strategic behavior. When expanding the model framework to multiple load periods, the closed loop equilibria for different conjectural variations can diverge from each other and from open loop equilibria. We also present and analyze alternative conjectured price response models with switching conjectures. Surprisingly, the rank ordering of the closed loop equilibria in terms of consumer surplus and market efficiency (as measured by total social welfare) is ambiguous. Thus, regulatory approaches that force marginal cost-based bidding in spot markets may diminish market efficiency and consumer welfare by dampening incentives for investment. We also show that the closed loop capacity yielded by a conjectured price response second stage competition can be less or equal to the closed loop Cournot capacity, and that the former capacity cannot exceed the latter when there are symmetric agents and two load periods.     

Competitive Advertising Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Differential Game Approach

We analyze optimal advertising spending in a duopolistic market where each firm's market share depends on its own and its competitor's advertising decisions, and is also subject to stochastic disturbances. We develop a differential game model of advertising in which the dynamic behavior is based on the Sethi stochastic advertising model and the Lanchester model of combat. Particularly important to note is the morphing of the sales decay term in the Sethi model into decay caused by competitive advertising and noncompetitive churn that acts to equalize market shares in the absence of advertising. We derive closed-loop Nash equilibria for symmetric as well as asymmetric competitors. For all cases, explicit solutions and comparative statics are presented.     

Optimal allocation of drug control efforts: A differential game analysis

The present paper considers a dynamic nonzero-sum game between drug dealers and the authorities. Although the game is neither linear-quadratic nor degenerate, in the sense that the closed-loop equilibria coincide with the open-loop equilibria, we are able to calculate explicitly a stationary feedback Nash equilibrium of that game. In a numerical example, we determine the optimal allocation of governmental efforts between treatment and law enforcement minimizing the total discounted cost stream in the equilibrium. Moreover, we provide sensitivity analyses with respect to the efficiency parameters of both competitors. Our results show that a farsighted authority should attack the drug problem from the demand side and put much effort in treatment measures and the improvement of the efficiency of the treatment.This research was supported by the Austrian Science Foundation under Contract P9112-SOZ. We would like to thank A. Luhmer and E. J. Dockner for helpful comments.     

Linear–quadratic stochastic two-person nonzero-sum differential games: Open-loop and closed-loop Nash equilibria

In this paper, we consider a linear–quadratic stochastic two-person nonzero-sum differential game. Open-loop and closed-loop Nash equilibria are introduced. The existence of the former is characterized by the solvability of a system of forward–backward stochastic differential equations, and that of the latter is characterized by the solvability of a system of coupled symmetric Riccati differential equations. Sometimes, open-loop Nash equilibria admit a closed-loop representation, via the solution to a system of non-symmetric Riccati equations, which could be different from the outcome of the closed-loop Nash equilibria in general. However, it is found that for the case of zero-sum differential games, the Riccati equation system for the closed-loop representation of an open-loop saddle point coincides with that for the closed-loop saddle point, which leads to the conclusion that the closed-loop representation of an open-loop saddle point is the outcome of the corresponding closed-loop saddle point as long as both exist. In particular, for linear–quadratic optimal control problem, the closed-loop representation of an open-loop optimal control coincides with the outcome of the corresponding closed-loop optimal strategy, provided both exist.     

Controlled predatory pricing in a multiperiod Stackelberg game: an MPEC approach

We analyze a multiperiod oligopolistic market where each period is a Stackelberg game between a leader firm and multiple follower firms. The leader chooses his production level first, taking into account the reaction of the followers. Then, the follower firms decide their production levels after observing the leader’s decision. The difference between the proposed model and other models discussed in literature is that the leader firm has the power to force the follower firms out of business by preventing them from achieving a target sales level in a given time period. The leader firm has an incentive to lower the market prices possibly lower than the Stackelberg equilibrium in order to push the followers to sell less and eventually go out of business. Intentionally lowering the market prices to force competitors to fail is known as predatory pricing, and is illegal under antitrust laws since it negatively affects consumer welfare. In this work, we show that there exists a predatory pricing strategy where the market price is above the average cost and consumer welfare is preserved. We develop a mixed integer nonlinear problem (MINLP) that models the multiperiod Stackelberg game. The MINLP problem is transformed to a mixed integer linear problem (MILP) by using binary variables and piecewise linearization. A cutting plane algorithm is used to solve the resulting MILP. The results show that firms can engage in predatory pricing even if the average market price is forced to remain higher than the average cost. Furthermore, we show that in order to protect the consumers, antitrust laws can control predatory pricing by setting rules on consumer welfare.     

New product advertising in dynamic oligopolies

The success of the introduction of a new product in a market is very sensitive to the marketing decision variables adopted by the firm. In the present paper we are concerned with the question of new product advertising in a heterogeneous oligopoly market consisting of N firms. A dynamic game is formulated to model strategic as well as sales interactions in such a market. Optimal advertising strategies are identified as open-loop Nash solutions.The comments of two anonymous referees are appreciated. The first author wishes to acknowledge support from NSERC (Grant No. OGP0037342).     

A class of differential games for which the closed-loop and open-loop Nash equilibria coincide

It is well known that, in general, Nash equilibria in open-loop strategies do not coincide with those in closed-loop strategies. This note identifies a class of differential games in which the Nash equilibrium in closed-loop strategies is degenerate, in the sense that it depends on time only. Consequently, the closed-loop equilibrium is also an equilibrium in open-loop strategies.The helpful comments of Professors Y. C. Ho, G. Leitmann, H. Y. Wan, Jr., and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Dynamical analysis of a nonlinear competitive model with generic and brand advertising efforts

In this paper, a new four-dimensional map is proposed to model the dynamical advertising efforts, where both the generic and brand effects for advertisement are taken into account in the model. The marginal profit adapting strategy is used to reflect the interaction among the firms that strive for the optimal profit. When the generic advertising bears a large effectiveness coefficient, the generic advertising efforts will exhibit chaos, which leads to a chaotic dynamics for brand advertising efforts. In this case, we analyze the some properties of steady trajectories that imply rough profiles of the advertising strategies evolution. Furthermore, by rigorous dynamical analysis and numerical simulations, we obtain the feasible set outlining the influence of initial conditions on the global dynamic properties. We first deal with the symmetric system, and then extend the obtained results to more general case, namely, the asymmetric model. For the symmetric model, two firms’ brand advertising expenditures behave synchronization, but the dynamics of generic advertising efforts are dependent upon initial conditions. Meanwhile, for the heterogeneous case, the domain firm in the market needs to contribute all generic advertising expenditures. Our results can have a practical impact on the market evolution, and are therefore beneficial to decision maker.     

Advertising coordination games of a manufacturer and a retailer while introducing a new product

Two kinds of vertical cooperative advertising program are considered in a distribution channel constituted by a manufacturer and a retailer, where the manufacturer pays part of the retailer’s advertising costs. In the first participation scheme, the manufacturer chooses his/her advertising participation rate in the retailer’s advertising effort and then each player determines the advertising effort that maximizes his/her profit. In the second scheme, the retailer chooses the manufacturer’s participation rate and then the manufacturer determines the advertising efforts of both players with the objective of maximizing the manufacturer’s profit. Each participation scheme corresponds to a special Stackelberg game: the manufacturer is the leader of the first, while the retailer is the leader of the second. The Stackelberg equilibrium advertising efforts and participation rate in both games are provided. Then the equilibrium strategies of the two players in the analyzed scenarios are compared with the Nash equilibrium in the competitive framework. Finally, the conditions which suggest a special kind of agreement to a player are analyzed. This work was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research and the University of Padua.     

Signaling advertising by multiproduct firms

We consider the use of advertising expenses as quality signals in multiproduct firms, extending previous results on single product firms. In our model, a firm introduces sequentially two products whose qualities are positively correlated. We investigate whether there exist information spillovers from the first to the second market. We show that, when correlation is high, the equilibrium in market 2 depends on the quality reputation the firm has gained in market 1. Moreover, if a firm with a high-quality product 1 wants to separate from its low-quality counterpart, it needs to advertise more in this market than if the qualities of the two products are unrelated. This advertising level signals not only high quality in the first market, but also the likely quality of the second product. Thus, advertising in the first market has information spillovers in the second market.     

The Leitmann-Schmitendorf advertising game with n players and time discounting

The extension of the Leitmann-Schmitendorf advertising game to n players and positive time discounting is investigated. We show that the strong time consistency of the open-loop Nash equilibrium is preserved. As to optimal controls, while the boundary solution is unaffected by the number of firms as well as discounting, the inner solution depends on industry structure. The fully symmetric version of the game allows us to identify the parameter regions wherein both solutions are sustainable.     

Fatigue accumulation in dynamic contests

We study a dynamic contest model where efforts exerted in previous periods accumulate as fatigue. As an individual's fatigue level increases, it becomes more costly to exert one unit of effort in the future. This creates a trade-off between exerting high efforts today to collect winning prizes sooner and exerting low efforts today to gain a cost advantage in the future. We characterize the steady state conditions for open-loop equilibrium and analyze equilibrium efforts in the presence of accumulated fatigue.