Single-Period Markowitz Portfolio Selection,Performance Gauging,and Duality: A Variation on the Luenberger Shortage Function

The Markowitz portfolio theory (Ref. 1) has stimulated research into the efficiency of portfolio management. This paper studies existing nonparametric efficiency measurement approaches for single-period portfolio selection from a theoretical perspective and generalizes currently used efficiency measures into the full mean-variance space. We introduce the efficiency improvement possibility function (a variation on the shortage function), study its axiomatic properties in the context of the Markowitz efficient frontier, and establish a link to the indirect mean-variance utility function. This framework allows distinguishing between portfolio efficiency and allocative efficiency; furthermore, it permits retrieving information about the revealed risk aversion of investors. The efficiency improvement possibility function provides a more general framework for gauging the efficiency of portfolio management using nonparametric frontier envelopment methods based on quadratic optimization.     

内生公共支出效用指数的经济优化配置模型

通过将公共投资指数与社会生产总量联系起来,引入含消费与公共支出效用指数的双变量效用函数,提出社会效用最大化问题.求解优化问题得到描述模型的二维动力系统,首先证明了系统存在唯一的均衡点,并利用相图分析了模型存在唯一的最优路径.     

Optimal monopoly pricing with congestion and random utility via partial mass transport

We consider a bilevel optimization framework corresponding to a monopoly spatial pricing problem: the price for a set of given facilities maximizes the profit (upper level problem) taking into account that the demand is determined by consumers' cost minimization (lower level problem). In our model, both transportation costs and congestion costs are considered, and the lower level problem is solved via partial transport mass theory. The partial transport aspect of the problem comes from the fact that each consumer has the possibility to remain out of the market. We also generalize the model and our variational analysis to the stochastic case where utility involves a random term.     

Optimal recruitment strategies in a multi-level manpower planning model

Markov manpower planning models have extensively been analysed in the past in order to find an optimal personnel strategy for which the stocks of the manpower system evolve towards desirable ones. So far, those models do not take into account interactions among different organizational decision levels. In this paper, a multi-level manpower planning model is presented that considers, besides the desirable stock vector at overall level, proposals for the departmental stocks from lower organizational levels. Attainability of the stock vectors at departmental level is examined under control by recruitment and interdepartmental transitions. A multi-level optimization algorithm is presented to determine an optimal recruitment strategy resulting in attainable and acceptable stocks that are a compromise between the proposal from the top and the proposals from the departments.     

具有内生人口规模的城市经济增长模型

本文研究了城市经济增长与人口规模的相互关系.通过引入含消费与舒适度的双变量效用函数,提出了城市居民效用最大化问题.利用动态优化与动力系统,得出描述模型的二维动力系统,具有唯一双曲型平衡点和优化问题存在唯一最优增长路径.因而,对城市经济增长存在最优的人口规模.     

基于指数效用函数的酒店可替代产品的超订模型研究

本文考虑酒店收益管理中的超订问题.在考虑可替代因素和风险偏好的前提下,我们需决定每种房型的最佳超订量.我们把这个问题归结为两阶段最优化问题:在预定阶段,需决定最佳超订量;在分房阶段,将房型按现有预定进行分配,其中可以发生替代.我们得出,期望效用收益函数关于预定上限是子模函数.也就是说,一种房型的预定上限将随着其它产品预定上限的上升而下降.     

Classification methods for random utility models with i.i.d. disturbances under the most probable alternative rule

In this paper random utility maximization based on maximization of correct classification of the choice decisions over a given data set is considered. It is shown that if the disturbance vector in the random utility model is independent and identically distributed, then preference determination based on the most probable alternative reduces to deterministic utility maximization. As a consequence of the above equivalence, the form of the error distribution (normal, Weibull, uniform etc.) plays no role in the determination of the preferred alternative. Parameter estimation under the most probable alternative rule is carried out using two methods. The first is based on the solution of an appropriately defined system of linear inequalities and the second one is based on the function optimization of a newly proposed function, whose optimum is achieved when the number of correctly classified individuals is maximized. The ability to use these algorithms in the framework of pattern recognition and machine learning is pointed out. Simulations and a real case study involving intercity travel behavior are employed to assess the proposed methods.     

Optimal Consumption in a Growth Model with the CES Production Function

Abstract

This article studies the optimization problem of maximizing the expected discounted present value of lifetime utility of consumption in the framework of one-sector neoclassical growth model with the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function. We establish the existence of a classical solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation associated with this problem by the technique of viscosity solutions under the strict concavity of the utility function, and hence derive an optimal consumption from the optimality conditions in the HJB equation.     

New optimality principles for economic efficiency and equilibrium

This paper develops several optimization principles relating the fundamental concepts of Pareto efficiency and competitive equilibria. The beginning point for this development is the introduction of a new function describing individual preferences, closely related to willingness-to-pay, termed the benefit function. An important property of the benefit function is that it can be summed across individuals to obtain a meaningful measure of total benefit relative to a given set of utility levels; and the optimization principles presented in the paper are based on maximization of this total benefit.Specifically, it is shown that, under appropriate technical assumptions, a Pareto-efficient allocationX maximizes the total benefit relative to the utility levels it yields. Conversely, if an allocationX yields zero benefit and maximizes the total benefit function, then that allocation is Pareto efficient. The Lagrange multipliersp of the benefit maximization problem serve as prices; and the (X,p) pair satisfies a generalized saddle-point property termed a Lagrange equilibrium. This in turn is equivalent, under appropriate assumptions, to a competitive equilibrium.There are natural duals to all of the results stated above. The dual optimization principle is based on a surplus function which is a function of prices. The surplus is the total income generated at pricesp, minus the total income required to obtain given utility levels. The dual optimization principle states that prices that are dual (or indirect) Pareto efficient minimize total surplus and render it zero. Conversely, a set of prices that minimizes total surplus and renders it zero is a dual Pareto efficient set of prices.The results of the paper can be viewed as augmenting the first and second theorems of welfare economics (and their duals) to provide a family of results that relate the important economic concepts of Pareto efficiency, equilibrium, dual (or indirect) Pareto efficiency, total benefit, Lagrange equilibrium, and total surplus.The author wishes to thank Charles R. Bowman and Andrew J. Yates for several valuable suggestions and corrections.     

Simulation-based framework to improve patient experience in an emergency department

The global economic crisis has a significant impact on healthcare resource provision worldwide. The management of limited healthcare resources is further challenged by the high level of uncertainty in demand, which can lead to unbalanced utilization of the available resources and a potential deterioration of patient satisfaction in terms of longer waiting times and perceived reduced quality of services. Therefore, healthcare managers require timely and accurate tools to optimize resource utility in a complex and ever-changing patient care process. An interactive simulation-based decision support framework is presented in this paper for healthcare process improvement. Complexity and different levels of variability within the process are incorporated into the process modeling phase, followed by developing a simulation model to examine the impact of potential alternatives. As a performance management tool, balanced scorecard (BSC) is incorporated within the framework to support continual and sustainable improvement by using strategic-linked performance measures and actions. These actions are evaluated by the simulation model developed, whilst the trade-off between objectives, though somewhat conflicting, is analysed by a preference model. The preference model is designed in an interactive and iterative process considering decision makers preferences regarding the selected key performance indicators (KPIs). A detailed implementation of the framework is demonstrated on an emergency department (ED) of an adult teaching hospital in north Dublin, Ireland. The results show that the unblocking of ED outflows by in-patient bed management is more effective than increasing only the ED physical capacity or the ED workforce.     

Optimal allocation to Deferred Income Annuities

In this paper we employ a lifecycle model that uses utility of consumption and bequest to determine an optimal Deferred Income Annuity (DIA) purchase policy. We lay out a mathematical framework to formalize the optimization process. The method and implementation of the optimization is explained, and the results are then analyzed. We extend our model to control for asset allocation and show how the purchase policy changes when one is allowed to vary asset allocation. Our results indicate that(i) refundable DIAs are less appealing than non-refundable DIAs because of the loss of mortality credits; (ii) the DIA allocation region is larger under the fixed asset allocation strategy due to it becoming a proxy for fixed-income allocation; and (iii) when the investor is allowed to change asset-allocation, DIA allocation becomes less appealing. However, a case for higher DIA allocation can be made for those individuals who perceive their longevity to be higher than the population.     

集装箱码头泊位计划的鲁棒优化模型

针对集装箱码头作业中的不确定性因素,构建泊位计划的鲁棒优化模型与算法,目的是降低不确定性因素对集装箱码头作业系统的影响。首先,提出泊位计划鲁棒性度量指标,利用算例对各指标的效果进行分析。在此基础上,设计泊位计划鲁棒优化的两阶段优化算法。算法的第一阶段不考虑泊位计划的鲁棒性,以船舶总延误时间最小为目标;算法的第二阶段以所选择的鲁棒性指标最大为目标,以第一阶段获得的船舶总延误时间为约束条件,获得鲁棒调度方案。最后,研究作业资源(装卸桥数量)的变化对泊位计划鲁棒性的影响。算例分析表明,权重松弛量是有效的度量泊位计划鲁棒性的指标,两阶段算法可以有效解决泊位计划鲁棒优化问题。     

多周期多种设备公用工程系统优化模型的改进及应用

本文提出了多周期多种设备公用工程系统改进的混合整数双线性优化模型,它含有两种优化变量和系统运行过程的离散动态约束,期望系统总设备投资(含设备折旧)与全周期运行操作费用之和最小。针对改进优化模型求解上的困难,给出将改进优化模型分解成有限多个关于连续变量的线性规划。论述了改进优化模型与分解模型的等价性以及两种模型的主要数学性质,并在此基础上提出了求解策略。最后将改进优化模型应用于某石化企业的蒸汽动力系统最优设计与运行优化集成实例。     

An Approach to Fuzzy Noncooperative Nash Games

Systems that involve more than one decision maker are often optimized using the theory of games. In the traditional game theory, it is assumed that each player has a well-defined quantitative utility function over a set of the player decision space. Each player attempts to maximize/minimize his/her own expected utility and each is assumed to know the extensive game in full. At present, it cannot be claimed that the first assumption has been shown to be true in a wide variety of situations involving complex problems in economics, engineering, social and political sciences due to the difficulty inherent in defining an adequate utility function for each player in these types of problems. On the other hand, in many of such complex problems, each player has a heuristic knowledge of the desires of the other players and a heuristic knowledge of the control choices that they will make in order to meet their ends.In this paper, we utilize fuzzy set theory in order to incorporate the players' heuristic knowledge of decision making into the framework of conventional game theory or ordinal game theory. We define a new approach to N-person static fuzzy noncooperative games and develop a solution concept such as Nash for these types of games. We show that this general formulation of fuzzy noncooperative games can be applied to solve multidecision-making problems where no objective function is specified. The computational procedure is illustrated via application to a multiagent optimization problem dealing with the design and operation of future military operations.     

Integrated simulation and optimization models for tracking international fixed income indices

Portfolio managers in the international fixed income markets must address jointly the interest rate risk in each market and the exchange rate volatility across markets. This paper develops integrated simulation and optimization models that address these issues in a common framework. Monte Carlo simulation procedures generate jointly scenarios of interest and exchange rates and, thereby, scenarios of holding period returns of the available securities. The portfolio manager’s risk tolerance is incorporated either through a utility function or a (modified) mean absolute deviation function. The optimization models prescribe asset allocation weights among the different markets and also resolve bond-picking decisions. Therefore several interrelated decisions are cast in a common framework. Two models – an expected utility maximization and a mean absolute deviation minimization – are implemented and tested empirically in tracking a composite index of the international bond markets. Backtesting over the period January 1997 to July 1998 illustrate the efficacy of the optimization models in dealing with uncertainty and tracking effectively the volatile index. Of particular interest is the empirical demostration that the integrative models generate portfolios that dominate the portfolios obtained using classical disintegrated approaches. Received: November 24, 1998 / Accepted: October 1, 2000?Published online December 15, 2000     

基于效用比的多工序并联制造过程能力分析

多工序制造过程通常包含串联和并联两种结构,具有串并联混合结构的多工序制造过程是实践中最为常见的形式,而不同模式的并联结构其上游工序质量波动对下游工序及总过程能力的影响不同。针对多工序制造过程并联结构特点,本文从波动减少的角度重点对多工序并联制造过程中并行、分散和收敛三种基本模式进行过程能力分析,研究多工序制造过程中各子过程波动对整体过程能力的影响,并根据各子过程质量波动减少的“困难度”和“效用比”评价质量改进的效果,给出多工序并联过程能力改进策略选择依据。通过实例表明,本方法能较好地识别各工序质量波动减少对本工序过程能力和总过程能力的不同影响,确定质量改进的优先顺序,实现多工序制造过程的经济性质量改进和优化。     

A Non-myopic Utility Function for Statistical Global Optimization Algorithms

The high cost of providing worst-case solutions to global optimization problems has motivated the development of average-case algorithms that rely on a statistical model of the objective function. The critical role of the statistical model is to guide the search for the optimum. The standard approach is to define a utility function u(x) that in a certain sense reflects the benefit of evaluating the function at x. A proper utility function needs to strike a balance between the immediate benefit of evaluating the function at x – a myopic consideration; and the overall effect of this choice on the performance of the algorithm – a global criterion. The utility functions currently used in this context are heuristically modified versions of some myopic utility functions. We propose using a new utility function that is provably a globally optimal utility function in a non-adaptive context (where the model of the function values remains unchanged). In the adaptive context, this utility function is not necessarily optimal, however, given its global nature, we expect that its use will lead to the improved performance of statistical global optimization algorithms. To illustrate the approach, and to test the above assertion, we apply this utility function to an existing adaptive multi-dimensional statistical global optimization algorithm and provide experimental comparisons with the original algorithm.     

组合分析法在新产品概念开发与测试中的应用

介绍了组合分析法的基本模型,对2004年海南马自达新上市轿车产品概念测试进行了案例研究,运用组合分析法获得了每个受访者的属性水平效用值、属性相对重要性(偏好权重)、产品总效用函数。在此基础上,根据多属性效用聚类分析的结果获得了轿车配置偏好、价格偏好和变速器偏好三个消费群体。针对这三个属性偏好群体,详细研究了群体属性水平效用、属性相对重要性、产品总效用,模拟了市场占有率及其变化,获得了一些非常有价值的结论。     

基于CAIV/EA的武器装备经济可承受性优化设计

根据费用作为独立变量(CAIV)和渐进式采办(EA)策略的基本思想,研究了基于CAIV/EA的经济可承受性优化设计模型.根据多属性效用理论建立关于用户需求实现程度的综合效用目标函数;通过质量功能展开技术建立作战需求与设计参数的函数关系;依据"权衡空间"概念,确定约束条件.实践证明,该模型可以优化系统设计参数值,得出研制各批次的工作计划和资源分配规划,实现用户需求、资源能力和技术水平的平衡,从而提高装备经济可承受性.     

On minkowski metric and weighted tchebyshev norm in vector optimization ∗

The typical approach in solving vector optimization problems is to scalarize the vector cost function into a single cost function by means of some utility or value function. A very large class of utility function is given by the Minkowski’s metric proposed by Charnes and Cooper in the context of goal programming. This includes the special case of linear scalarization and the weighted Tchebyshev norm. We shall furnish a rigorous justification that there is no equivalent relationship between the general vector optimization problem and scalarized optimization problems using any Minkowski’s metric utility function. Furthermore, we also show that the weighted Tchebyshev norm is, in some sense, the best amongst the class of Minkowski’s metric utility functions since it is the only scalarization method which yields an equivalence relation between the weak vector optimization problem and a set of scalar optimization problems, without any convexity assumption