桑蚕种良卵率调查中样本间卵粒数的偏差控制方法

桑蚕种良卵率是蚕种质量检验的重要指标,控制样本间卵粒数的偏差是保证良卵率准确性的关键。通过对桑蚕卵粒重的调查分析,得出其分布服从正态分布。若从一批蚕种中抽取1g卵作为样本,则来自同一总体的2个样本的卵粒数之差不超过16粒,其置信概率为95%;当置信概率取99%时,两个样本的卵粒数之差不超过21粒。文章为蚕业生产提供了一种实用的克卵粒数偏差控制方法。     

桑蚕成品卵微粒子病抽样检验样本容量的确定

蚕业生产上对桑蚕种成品卵微粒子病控制得很严,要求将总体病卵率为0.15%的蚕种以98.5%的概率将其判为不合格。在此标准下,运用概率统计方法,给出了抽样检验时样本最少抽检量为2800粒。并在控制把合格蚕种判为不合格蚕种要求下,给出了抽样检验时确定样本容量的数学模型。     

逆高斯分布变异系数和尺度参数的统计推断研究

构造了逆高斯分布中变异系数的广义枢轴量,给出了一种参数的区间估计方法,并与MOVOER(method of variance of estimates recovery)和Bootstrap 方法进行比较;给出了多总体下尺度参数两两差的同时置信区间.模拟结果表明:在中、小样本情况下,所给的广义置信区间其覆盖概率接近置信...     

桑蚕种杂交率抽样检验方案改进研究

现行桑蚕种杂交率检验采用幼虫(或茧)的形态检验方法,且不设重复区,存在准确性差等诸多缺陷.本文提出了以400粒蚕种作为样本,设重复区的分组检验法检验桑蚕种杂交率.该方法可以弥补饲养过程中混杂或蚕病等异常情况的影响,能够对出现的问题作出适当的分析与评估,而且没有增加检验工作量.当样本个体数在381～400、361～380、341～360、321～340、301～320个时,非指定杂交方式的其它蚕品种的个体数分别不超过17、16、15、14和13个时,该批蚕种合格.即当样本容量不超过400个时,样本杂交率不能低于95.54%。两样本间杂交率的最大偏差不超过2%.     

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本文利用广义p值和广义置信区间理论,研究了两独立服从双参数指数分布产品平均寿命比率的统计推断问题.给出了平均寿命比率的广义置信区间,并对该区间的覆盖率和区间长度进行了数据模拟,模拟结果与已有文献中的近似置信区间进行了比较,结果显示本文给出的广义置信区间的区间覆盖率和区间长度都要优于近似置信区间,特别是在小样本的情况下.     

基于海明距离的区间三角模糊多属性决策问题

针对属性值为区间三角模糊数,权重信息不完全的多属性决策问题,为保证决策的准确性,构建了一种基于信息理论思想的决策方法.首先给出区间三角模糊集(数)的海明距离(Hamming distance)的定义,再利用极大偏差法建立线性规划模型计算属性的权重,最后用TOPSIS方法对方案进行排序,并给出此方法的计算步骤,通过实例验证了该方法的有效性.     

双参数指数分布的可靠寿命的广义置信下限

基于双参数指数分布定数截尾数据,利用Weerahanandi给出的广义置信区间的概念,建立了可靠寿命的广义置信下限,并从理论上证明了我们给出的广义置信下限是精确的,即基于广义置信下限的区间估计的覆盖率等于要求的置信水平.广义置信下限需要通过数值方法得到,但是计算方法是简单直接的.在小样本情形下,通过对基于广义置信下限的置信区间与Engelhardt-Bain近似置信区间覆盖率的模拟比较,发现广义置信下限更令人满意.     

线性模型的误差方差的序贯估计及其渐近性质

<正> §1.引言 Chow和Robbins根据取自总体的iid.样本,在总体方差σ~2未知时,考虑了总体均值μ的给定长度2d和给定置信概率α的区间估计问题.他们采用了一类序贯程序,并研究了d→0时有关的渐近性质.Gleser把这些结果推广到线性回归的情形.     

U统计量均值的固定长度的序贯区间估计

Y.S Chow 和 H.Robbins[1]讨论了一般总体方差σ~2。未知时均值μ的固定长度2d,给定置信概率1-α的序贯区间估计.此后一些作者又作了进一步的研究,其中Sproule[2]曾给出了 U 统计量均值的固定长度的序贯区间估计.本文主要讨论 U 统计量均值θ的固定长度的刻度型序贯区间估计.并顺便讨论一种构作 U 统计量均值固定长度区间估计的渐近有效两阶段抽样方案.     

对数正态分布场合下产品加固性能的Bayes评估方法

总结了评估产品抗辐射能力实验中常常遇到的三类数据.针对产品抗辐射能力服从对数正态分布、实验样本数据为成败型实验数据的情形,运用Bayes方法给出了在小样本情况下,产品平均抗辐射能力大于给定指标要求的后验概率的计算方法以及在给定置信度下产品平均抗辐射能力置信下限的计算方法.讨论了未知参数先验分布的确定方法, 并给出了评估方法的具体例子.     

刀具问题的仿真及灵敏度分析

本文通过计算机模拟仿真 ,搜索到了 CMCM-99A题中换刀间隔与检查间隔的近似最优解及单位正品最小费用 ,并对 p1(好刀生产正品的概率 ) ,p2 (坏刀生产正品的概率 ) ,k,f,d进行了灵敏度分析 ,得出 u(换刀间隔 )是最重要的优化参数的结论     

Admissibility of estimators of the probability of unobserved outcomes

The problem of estimating the probability of unobserved outcomes or, as it is sometimes called, the conditional probability of a new species, is studied. Good's estimator, which is essentially the same as Robbins' estimator, namely the number of singleton species observed divided by the sample size, is studied from a decision theory point of view. The results obtained are as follows: (1) When the total number of different species is assumed bounded by some known number, Good's and Robbins' estimators are inadmissible for squared error loss. (2) If the number of different species can be infinite, Good's and Robbins' estimators are admissible for squared error loss. (3) Whereas Robbins' estimator is a UMVUE for theunconditional probability of a new species obtained in one extra sample point, Robbins' estimator is not a uniformly minimum mean squared error unbiased estimator of the conditional probability of a new species. This answers a question raised by Robbins. (4) It is shown that for Robbins' model and squared error loss, there are admissible Bayes estimators which do not depend only on a minimal sufficient statistic. A discussion of interpretations and significance of the results is offered. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-88-22622.     

Small-sample properties of maximum probability estimators

The theory of maximum probability estimation is predominantly asymptotic. In this paper it is shown that in many cases maximum probability estimators based on small samples are admissible for all practical purposes, in the sense that their expected gain function is arbitrarily close to the expected gain function of an admissible estimator.     

与给定多边形相切的可调广义Ball闭曲线

讨论了与给定控制多边形相切的分段三次、五次和六次可调广义Ball曲线的构造方法,所构造的曲线分别是C1,C2和C3连续的,而且对切线多边形是保形的.曲线上的所有广义Ball曲线段的控制点由切线多边形的顶点直接计算产生.给出了在保持公共连接点处相应连续的情况下,内控制点的活动范围.曲线可以在一定范围内做局部修改.计算实例...     

Analysis of Bidirectional Ballot Sequences and Random Walks Ending in Their Maximum

Consider non-negative lattice paths ending at their maximum height, which will be called admissible paths. We show that the probability for a lattice path to be admissible is related to the Chebyshev polynomials of the first or second kind, depending on whether the lattice path is defined with a reflective barrier or not. Parameters like the number of admissible paths with given length or the expected height are analyzed asymptotically. Additionally, we use a bijection between admissible random walks and special binary sequences to prove a recent conjecture by Zhao on ballot sequences.     

Asymptotical feedback controllability of continuous-time probabilistic logic control networks

In this article, we study the controllability of continuous-time probabilistic logic control networks (CT-PLCNs) under sampled-data feedback controls (SDFCs). First, we demonstrate that the concept of finite-time controllability with probability one for discrete-time probabilistic logic control networks cannot be generalized to CT-PLCNs. Then, we propose the concepts of asymptotical feedback reachability and asymptotical feedback controllability for CT-PLCNs. Based on the invariant subsets, we prove that a target state is asymptotically feedback reachable if and only if the target state is a control equilibrium point and any initial state has an admissible path to the target state. Moreover, we introduce the concept of reachability matrix and propose an easily verifiable criterion for asymptotical feedback reachability expressed in terms of the reachability matrix. Based on these, we prove that a CT-PLCN is asymptotically feedback controllable if and only if every state is a control equilibrium point and there is an admissible path between any pair of initial and target states. The relation between controllability and stabilizability is also discussed. We prove that a CT-PLCN is asymptotically feedback controllable if and only if every state is asymptotically feedback stabilizable. For a controllable CT-PLCN, we propose an algorithm of designing a stabilizing SDFC for any given target state. Additionally, we discuss the asymptotical feedback controllability of CT-PLCNs under time-varying nonuniform SDFCs. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to explain the proposed methods and verify the controllability criteria.     

Shape restriction of the multi-dimensional Bernstein prior for density functions

Random Bernstein polynomials induces a probability measure on the space of multivariate density functions on a unit cube. For density estimation, it is important that the Bernstein prior can be restricted to an admissible class of densities with certain geometric properties of the target density. In this article, we study the shape properties such as monotonicity, convexity, and symmetry of the Bernstein prior.