基于Fuzzy-AHP的国际工程报价及模型应用

国际工程招投标是一种比较成熟、高级和规范化的国际贸易方式.为了在决定投标成功的各项关键因素上发挥出比竞争对手更加强大的优势,提出了利用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合的报价决策模型.利用模型,在考虑到投标项目特有的影响因素前提下,选取合理的评价等级,可以模拟出具体项目的最优报价水平,为决策者做出最优报价决策、提高投标报价的成功率提供定量的辅助工具.     

风险决策方法在工程投标报价中的应用

在竞争性招标中 ,投标报价决策对于投标的成败和工程承包的盈亏起着决定性作用 .阐述了选择投标项目和确定工程报价的决策理论与方法 .在讨论投标报价理论依据的基础上 ,结合工程案例 ,应用贝叶斯法和期望值法等进行风险决策分析 .可以帮助施工企业迅速合理地做出投标与报价决策 .     

基于TOPSIS模型的精益评标方法

本文针对建设工程招投标电子评标抽取部分分项评定的弊端,在精益思维的理论基础上,提出了精益评标的概念及相应的评标模型.本文首先根据建设工程商务标清单项目的组成构建了评标模型的指标体系,然后在此基础上利用逼近理想解的排序方法 TOPSIS对投标报价进行综合评价排序,选出中标方.在评标时,利用k-means聚类分析投标报价并加权平均得出均值,并将结果对比招标控制价,分析判断招标控制价的编制水平及各单位投标报价的竞争程度.最后通过案例验证了精益评标模型的实用性和有效性.     

不完全信息四人帮模型的建设工程竞标合作均衡分析

建设工程投标报价决策中引入博弈论的精髓在于博弈中的一个理智决策者必须以考虑其他参与者的反应为基础来确定自身最理智的投标报价方案.应用信息不完全重复博弈的KMRW"四人帮"声誉模型原理,通过设定两方竞标者的非理智概率q,建立建设工程投标报价中两方投标者竞标的重复博弈模型,并对模型的精炼贝叶斯均衡进行求解及分析,得出两投标者在有限次重复博弈中的竞争合作规律,为企业竞标把握竞争合作规律提供理论参考.     

基于粗糙集和相对熵的工程项目投标决策研究

工程招投标已成为建筑市场最主要的竞争模式,投标决策是建筑企业必须面对和要解决的首要难题.在分析投标风险因素的基础上,针对投标风险影响因素众多且复杂,不确定性等特点,提出基于粗糙集理论和相对熵的投标优选模型.首先,分别运用层次分析法和改进的粗糙集条件信息熵确定指标主、客观权重,然后采用博弈集结模型对指标主客观权重进行组合赋权.其次,针对TOPSIS决策模型的不足,运用相对熵理论构建投标优选模型对投标项目进行投标决策.最后,结合工程实例并运用相对熵投标决策模型对投标项目进行优选,验证模型的合理性和可操作性.     

考虑交易费用的一级价格密封招标研究

本文在独立私人价值模型的基础上,通过引入投标成本,建立了考虑交易费用的一级价格密封招标博弈模型,给出了对称的进入点均衡和相应的对称均衡报价策略。研究表明,交易费用的出现排除了高成本类型的投标者,但也导致了竞标人数的不确定性,招标方为了降低招标无效率的可能性,必须限制潜在投标者人数;另一方面,在招投标过程中降低交易费用对交易双方来说都是有利的,招标方给予投标者投标补偿以激励其参与竞标的机制是可行的。     

多风险因素的投标报价决策方法

本文讨论工程项目投标报价的多风险因素层次模型，系统地介绍了90年代以来发展出的多风险因素条件下投标报价的5种主要决策方法，即层次分析法（AHP）、人工神经网络（ANN）、模糊评价法（Fuzzy）、专家系统（ES）和基于事例推理（CBR）。本文也对中国在该领域的研究现状作一个简单的评述。     

无标底招标项目中招投标各方的博弈研究

在无标底招标项目中,招投标各方之间存在诸多博弈现象.本文根据项目管理和博弈的方法,对投标方的投标策略和支付函数进行了深入的分析.同时,利用价值效益评价决策的方法建立了招标方的评标计分模型和中标评价模型,并根据招标方的评标偏好性,提出了招标方的评标策略集和中标策略集.最后,对招投标双方的多种博弈现象进行了讨论,提出了双方的纳什均衡策略和不同条件下的双方最优中标策略和最优投标策略.     

不确定环境下的投标方报价模型研究

在传统投标报价模型的基础上引入风险因子,提出报价要在收益与风险之间进行权衡.放宽了所有投标方的最高成本与最低成本是相同的这一前提假设,并借助Mathematica 5.0推导出投标方的报价模型.最后利用仿真对上述关系进行了分析.     

考虑招标人收益的工程招投标博弈分析

传统的投标博弈来源于拍卖模型,只有投标人参与,没有招标人参与,而实际上,现代评标方法的多样性决定了招标人在招投标博弈中的重要性,文章在对招投标博弈与拍卖博弈进行比较分析后,构建了包括招投标多方、招标人对收益具有风险偏好且类型未知的非完全信息静态博弈,比以往的单纯用投标人的成本作为整个模型的参数更加具有合理性.最后给出博弈的均衡解以及数值计算,同时为招投标双方的决策给出理论分析与现实意义.     

Various motivations for managerial (mis)reporting – an experimental study

In the experiment we model all possible consequences from misreporting for both the shareholder and for the manager, since we are interested in patterns in reporting behaviour resulting from different motivations for potential misrepresentation. This allows for examining the stability of the (mis)reporting behaviour in different treatments. Agents are primarily driven by the consequences for themselves rather than by the consequences for the principal, while deciding on misreporting. Participants are willing to sacrifice a small gain for themselves in order to prevent a greater loss for the principal. If agents misreport, they do it in order to generate positive rather than negative consequences for themselves. Reports in favour of the principal, but fruitless or even costly for the agent are very rare. The experiment indicates also that pro-social agents report more truthfully than pro-self agents.     

Representation for the Green’s function of the Dirichlet problem for polyharmonic equations in a ball

We explicitly construct the Green’s function for the Dirichlet problem for polyharmonic equations in a ball in a space of arbitrary dimension. The formulas for the Green’s function are of interest in their own right. In particular, the explicit representations for a solution to the Dirichlet problem for the biharmonic equation are important in elasticity.     

Superconvergence of mixed finite element semi-discretizations of two time-dependent problems

We will show that some of the superconvergence properties for the mixed finite element method for elliptic problems are preserved in the mixed semi-discretizations for a diffusion equation and for a Maxwell equation in two space dimensions. With the help of mixed elliptic projection we will present estimates global and pointwise in time. The results for the Maxwell equations form an extension of existing results. For both problems, our results imply that post-processing and a posteriori error estimation for the error in the space discretization can be performed in the same way as for the underlying elliptic problem.     

Sparre Andersen模型中破产概率的边界

研究在Andersen Spaxre模型中,当破产概率的初始边界已知的时候,根据更新方程和更新方程中函数的单调性来改进破产概率的边界,并进一步改进了严重损失函数G（x,y）的边界．     

Non-compact generalized variational inequalities for quasi-monotone and hemi-continuous operators with applications

Some results are obtained for non-compact cases in topological vector spaces for the existence problem of solutions for some set-valued variational inequalities with quasi-monotone and lower hemi-continuous operators, and with quasi-semi-monotone and upper hemi-continuous operators. Some applications are given in non-reflexive Banach spaces for these existence problems of solutions and for perturbation problems for these set-valued variational inequalities with quasi-monotone and quasi-semi-monotone operators. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the convergence of difference schemes for a heat conduction equation

Sufficient conditions are obtained for the convergence of difference schemes for the numerical solution of the Cauchy problem for a heat conduction equation in two space variables. The sufficient conditions are derived in a form similar to those for the convergence of a sequence of linear positive operators in the Korovkin theorem. As an application it is shown that difference schemes that are widely used in practice can easily be checked for convergence by these conditions.     

Bounds for Shannon and Zipf‐Mandelbrot entropies

Shannon and Zipf‐Mandelbrot entropies have many applications in many applied sciences, for example, in information theory, biology and economics, etc. In this paper, we consider two refinements of the well‐know Jensen inequality and obtain different bounds for Shannon and Zipf‐Mandelbrot entropies. First of all, we use some convex functions and manipulate the weights and domain of the functions and deduce results for Shannon entropy. We also discuss their particular cases. By using Zipf‐Mandelbrot laws for different parameters in Shannon entropies results, we obtain bounds for Zipf‐Mandelbrot entropy. The idea used in this paper for obtaining the results may stimulate further research in this area, particularly for Zipf‐Mandelbrot entropy.     

Shadow price principles applied to regulated pricing of natural gas

Inclusion of the shadow prices for natural gas in a dynamic fuels model for the United States shows that the primary reason for the relatively large, fly-up in new marginal gas prices in the early 1980's was the release of the pent-up price effects of the U.S. government's price regulations. In accordance with principles, the shadow price of natural gas fell siginificantly following de-regulation of the highcost gas (section 107) in 1980, which represented the precursor for downward adjustments in marginal wellhead prices of new high-cost gas and drilling activity. The modeling results show that no significant fly-up in new marginal gas prices for lower-cost gas (section 102) is likely to occur in 1985, when its phased de-regulation ends and it is finally de-regulated, because no shadow price precursor currently exists for this gas. Shadow price principles clear up the primary misconceptions with regard to natural gas pricing. This application indicates the significance of shadow price principles for regulated pricing in general.     

City-effects in the atomic bomb survivors data

It was investigated how risk estimates derived from the RERF life span study data sets for cancer incidence and mortality, respectively, differ between the two cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the two sexes. This was done by estimating the excess risk for various age-at-exposure and time-since-exposure groups. The epidemiologically most reliable age group are those aged 20–39 years at the time of exposure. As expected, in this group, the relative risk for females in Hiroshima is higher than that for males; however, in Nagasaki, the relative risk for females is lower than that for males. When comparing the risks in the two cities for the same sex, the risks of cancer incidence and mortality of females exposed in Hiroshima are higher than those in Nagasaki. However, for the males, the risks of cancer incidence in Hiroshima are lower than in Nagasaki, and the risks of cancer mortality of males are very similar between both cities. All differences depend on age-at-exposure and time-since-exposure, and are at the borderline of being statistically significant. The absorbed dose of neutrons, for the same γ-dose, is about three times as high in Hiroshima than in Nagasaki for both sexes. Because of these observed risk differences between both cities, it does not appear to be possible to reliably estimate the relative biological effectiveness of neutrons as compared to that of γ-rays from these epidemiological data sets. No evidence was found in this analysis that the radiation weighting factors w_R presently used for neutrons in radiation protection could severely underestimate the risks for somatic late effects induced by neutrons.     

流动稳定性弱非线性理论的重新考虑*

弱非性理论已被广泛用于流动稳定性理论及其它领域.然而其应用对某些问题虽是成功的,但对另一些问题,其结果却常不令人满意,特别是对转捩或自由剪切流中涡的演化这类问题,这时理论研究的目的不是寻找稳态解,而是预测演化过程.在本文中,我们将研究不成功的原因并建议一些改进的办法.