High dimensional cross-sectional dependence test under arbitrary serial correlation

In panel data analysis, the cross-sectional dependence (CD) test has been extensively used to test the cross-sectional dependence. However, this traditional CD test does not take serial correlation into consideration, which commonly occurs in many fields. To solve this problem, we propose an adjusted CD test which is able to effectively handle serial correlation. More specifically, the serial correlation can be of arbitrary form in our work. Furthermore, we establish the theoretical properties of the proposed adjusted CD test. Our extensive Monte Carlo experiments show that the traditional CD test cannot work well under serial correlation, while the proposed adjusted CD test does provide rather satisfactory performance.     

面板数据模型的序列相关性检验——理论研究与实证分析

本文对文献中面板数据模型中一些重要的序列相关性检验方法进行了梳理,并基于动态面板数据模型联合序列相关性检验对外商直接投资与增加就业的影响关系进行了实证研究。     

线性度量误差模型的序列相关检验

回归模型的序列相关检验是经济和金融数据分析中的一项重要的工作.基于最小二乘残差,作者提出了一个检验统计量以检验线性度量误差模型的误差序列是否存在序列相关性.在零假设下,得到了检验统计量的渐近分布.数值模拟结果表明,这里提出的检验统计量具有良好的有限样本性质.     

A modified residual-based test for serial correlation in linear panel data models

This paper suggests a modified serial correlation test for linear panel data models, which is based on the parameter estimates for an artificial autoregression modeled by differencing and centering residual vectors. Specifically, the differencing operator over the time index and the centering operator over the individual index are, respectively, used to eliminate the potential individual effects and time effects so that the resultant serial correlation test is robust to the two potential effects. Clearly, the test is also robust to the potential correlation between the covariates and the random effects. The test is asymptotically chi-squared distributed under the null hypothesis. Power study shows that the test can detect local alternatives distinct at the parametric rate from the null hypothesis. The finite sample properties of the test are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation experiments, and a real data example is analyzed for illustration.     

Robustness of one-sided cross-validation to autocorrelation

The effects of moderate levels of serial correlation on one-sided and ordinary cross-validation in the context of local linear and kernel smoothing is investigated. It is shown both theoretically and by simulation that one-sided cross-validation is much less adversely affected by correlation than is ordinary cross-validation. The former method is a reliable means of window width selection in the presence of moderate levels of serial correlation, while the latter is not. It is also shown that ordinary cross-validation is less robust to correlation when applied to Gasser-Müller kernel estimators than to local linear ones.     

The Significance of Correlated Demands and Variable Lead Times for Stock Control Policies

The current assumptions in stock control policies of independent demands and constant lead times are relaxed to include the case of first order autoregressive demand patterns and three different distributions of lead time. It is shown that where there is negative serial correlation, assumption of independence might lead to over provision of stock, whereas in cases of positive correlation the under provision will be very significant. This is aggravated as the expected lead time increases. These effects are illustrated by some numerical results.     

Portfolio optimization with serially correlated, skewed and fat tailed index returns

This paper finds that mean-variance portfolio optimization of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, real estate investment trusts and commodities is sufficiently exact to optimize the investor’s utility. We approximate the expected utility using a Taylor series expansion including terms involving third and fourth order moments. The empirical findings for monthly data from August 1994–August 2009 suggest that the incorporation of skewness and kurtosis cause no noticeable change in the optimal portfolio allocation. However, the serial correlations of smoothed returns of hedge funds and real estate investment trusts indeed cause major changes in optimal portfolio allocation. Consequently, attention needs to be drawn to significant serial correlation and not to potential deviations from normality due to skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. The out-of-sample analysis using a moving window gives evidence that the optimal portfolio weight differ significantly considering serial correlation. The optimization using smoothed returns leads to the highest terminal wealth after 10 years. The highest utility is reached with smoothed as well as shrinked returns, while using unsmoothed as well as shrinked returns leads to an out-of-sample disaster. These findings have practical implications for investors who are willing to diversify their portfolios with hedge funds and real estate investment trusts.     

Testing for serial correlation in three-dimensional panel data models

Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, English Series - This paper studies serial correlation testing for a general three-dimensional panel data model. As a step for hypothesis testing, the robust...     

线性纵向数据模型中多个个体的联合影响诊断

本文利用个体删除方法对具有纯序列相关的线性纵向数据模型,给出了多个个体对参数联合影响的分析式,并将其化简成相对容易计算的形式,同时讨论了enhancing、reducing及swamping效应.进一步,分析了个人所得税申报数据,发现了单个个体删除方法无法识别的影响个体,验证了多个个体删除方法在寻找影响个体时的有效性,扩大了删除方法的应用领域.     

非线性纵向数据模型中自相关性和随机效应的存在性检验

刻画纵向数据协方差结构有三种可能因素 ,即序列相关 (特别是一阶自相关 )、随机效应和常规的随机误差 (Diggleetal,2 0 0 2 ) .本文研究非线性纵向数据模型的自相关性和随机效应存在性的单个和联合检验 ,得到了检验的score统计量 ,并利用血浆药物渗透数据 (Davidian&Gilinan ,1 995)说明检验方法的应用 .     

一类聚合风险模型

本文提出了一类聚合风险模型--INARCR.研究了相关结构及性质;给出了总理赔量的极小值及拐点的条件和聚合风险模型的中心极限;余额过程中调节系数的系列性质.最后给出了周期d=2时聚合风险模型参数的矩估计.     

部分线性模型序列相关的经验似然诊断

本文研究了部分线性回归模型中误差的序列相关性的检验问题,得到了一种全新的经验似然诊断方法,导出了经验似然的非参数的Will's定理,数值模拟表明检验方法有很好的检验功效．     

The covariance of uncertain variables: definition and calculation formulae

Uncertainty theory as a branch of axiomatic mathematics has been widely used to deal with human uncertainty. The two commonly used numerical characteristics of uncertain variables, the expected value and the variance together with their mathematical properties have been discussed and applied to real optimization problems in an uncertain environment. As a further study, in this paper, we focus on the covariance and correlation coefficient of uncertain variables. The definitions and calculation formulae of covariance and correlation coefficient of two uncertain variables are suggested by means of their inverse distributions. Then we show that the correlation coefficient of uncertain variables is essentially a measure of the relevance of distributions of uncertain variables. Finally, the relation between variance and covariance is analysed and represented with some equalities and inequalities.     

金融市场波动性的拟合分析

金融市场的波动性是投资者关注的对象之一,也是被研究的热点。本文检验了我国股市的ARCH效应和序列相关性。并且在此基础上,将AR-IGARCH-M模型应用于上海综指和深圳成指,结果表明该模型能有效拟合我国深沪两股市的波动性。最后,针对结果分析了我国的股市行为。     

A review of Goal Programming and its applications

This paper presents a review of the current literature on the branch of multi-criteria decision modelling known as Goal Programming (GP). The result of our indepth investigations of the two main GP methods, lexicographic and weighted GP together with their distinct application areas is reported. Some guidelines to the scope of GP as an application tool are given and methods of determining which problem areas are best suited to the different GP approaches are proposed. The correlation between the method of assigning weights and priorities and the standard of the results is also ascertained.     

部分线性模型序列相关的经验似然比检验

本文研究了部分线性回归模型中误差的序列相关性的检验问题,用经验似然的方法构造检验统计量,得到了零假设下检验统计量的渐近分布,我们的检验方法不但可以检验一阶序列相关,也可以检验高阶序列相关,数值模拟表明检验方法有好的检验功效．     

A Generalization of Rao's Covariance Structure with Applications to Several Linear Models

This paper presents a generalization of Rao's covariance structure. In a general linear regression model, we classify the error covariance structure into several categories and investigate the efficiency of the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) relative to the Gauss–Markov estimator (GME). The classification criterion considered here is the rank of the covariance matrix of the difference between the OLSE and the GME. Hence our classification includes Rao's covariance structure. The results are applied to models with special structures: a general multivariate analysis of variance model, a seemingly unrelated regression model, and a serial correlation model.     

滑雪场季卡定价促销模型研究

根据06~07年间全国主要滑雪场的门市价和季卡价,首先运用EVIEWS6计量软件做出散点图、残差分析图以及残差的自相关-偏相关图,然后运用最小二乘估计方法确定回归方程系数,建立回归和序列组合模型,并将滑雪场的门市价代入相应方程计算出季卡付费方式下滑雪场应制定的最优价格,最后做相应的误差分析并总结本文模型的优点与不足.     

High-resolution simulation of microstructures in dual-phase steel

Modern dual-phase (DP) steels are widely used in industry due to their favorable material behavior based on the complex microstructure. In the presented work, a microstructure based FEM model for the elasto-plastic deformation of DP steels is developed in order to accomplish a deeper understanding of the structure-property correlation. The underlying microstructure is obtained by serial section tomography. The following contribution deals with a comparison of different approaches to build a FE mesh, which is based on such microstructures. (© 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Voltage amplification transfer function analysis of the operational amplifier in the negative capacitance circuits for vibration control with piezoceramics

Piezo elements due to their ability of converting mechanical energy into electrical energy and vice versa can be found in numerous mechanical vibration damping and absorbing applications. A desired effect may be customized by an external impedance shunt branch connected to the plates of the piezo element. The negative capacitance connected in serial with the passive shunt significantly improves the damping and absorbing performance of such systems. Negative capacitance circuit is built of an impedance converter realized by the operational amplifier. Since the amplifiers are not the ideal elements, the performance of the proposed systems is limited. This is due to the maximum voltages and currents that the operational amplifiers are able to generate. This effect causes instabilities and limits the operational area of the impedance converter. In the paper, the amplification transfer function of the non-ideal operational amplifier in the negative impedance converter is studied, and the necessary modification with the additional passive elements is proposed. The influence of the certain imperfections in the design, and its improvements are shown on the system consisting of the 1DOF mechanical oscillator, and a shunted piezo element. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)