Mathematical study of a risk-structured two-group model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis, which stratifies the entire population based on risk of acquiring or transmitting infection, is designed and analyzed to gain insight into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Unlike in some of the earlier modeling studies on Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population, this study shows that the backward bifurcation phenomenon persists even if individuals who recovered from Chlamydia infection do not get re-infected. However, it is shown that the phenomenon can be removed if all the susceptible individuals are equally likely to acquire infection (i.e., for the case where the susceptible male and female populations are not stratified according to risk of acquiring infection). In such a case, the DFE of the resulting (reduced) model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and no re-infection of recovered individuals occurs. Thus, this study shows that stratifying the two-sex Chlamydia transmission model, presented in [1], according to the risk of acquiring or transmitting infection induces the phenomenon of backward bifurcation regardless of whether or not the re-infection of recovered individuals occurs.     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamical analysis of a sex-structured Chlamydia trachomatis transmission model with time delay

The effect of using time delay to model the latency period of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is explored, by designing a deterministic two-sex model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population. The resulting delay differential equation model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. This phenomenon arises due to the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. Using permanence theory, it is shown that Chlamydia will persist in the population whenever the associated reproduction threshold exceeds unity. It is further shown that long latency period could induce positive (decrease disease burden) or negative (increase disease burden) population-level impact depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold quantity and some other conditions. Furthermore, this study shows that adding a time delay (to model the latency period) does not alter the main equilibrium dynamics (with respect to the effective control or persistence of the disease in the community) of the corresponding non-delayed Chlamydia transmission model considered in our earlier study Sharomi and Gumel (2009) [7].     

The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model

In this paper, a homogeneous-mixing population fractional model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, which incorporates anti-HIV preventive vaccines, is proposed. The dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when there is no vaccine. However, it has been shown that when the efficacy or dosage of vaccines is low, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium point (EE) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. A new critical value at the turning point should be deduced as a new threshold of disease eradication. We have generalized the integer LaSalle invariant set theorem into fractional system and given some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point being globally asymptotical stability. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that improving the efficiency and dosage of vaccines are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

Global results for an SIRS model with vaccination and isolation

Motivation is provided for the development of an SIRS epidemiological model with both vaccination and isolation control strategies. The model is then formulated and analyzed. In particular, the conditions for the existence of multiple endemic equilibria are given. The backward bifurcation, forward bifurcation and saddle–node bifurcation are explored. When the control reproduction numbers are below or over unity, local and global stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibria are proved under certain parameter conditions. The critical vaccination rate and isolation rate are calculated, which determine the disease’s endemicity.     

Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infective individuals on the disease spread. The treatment function in this paper is a continuous and differential function which exhibits the effect of delayed treatment when the rate of treatment is lower and the number of infected individuals is getting larger. It is proved that the existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for the model are not only related to the basic reproduction number but also to the capacity for treatment of infective individuals. And a backward bifurcation is found when the capacity is not enough. By computing the first Lyapunov coefficient, we can determine the type of Hopf bifurcation, i.e., subcritical Hopf bifurcation or supercritical Hopf bifurcation. We also show that under some conditions the model undergoes Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support some of the theoretical results.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

An Infectious Disease Model With Media Coverage and Limited Medical Resources北大核心CSCD

该文建立和分析了一类具有媒体报道效应和有限医疗资源的传染病动力学模型,定义了疾病的基本再生数,分析了平衡点的存在性和稳定性,给出了系统发生前向分支、后向分支和Hopf分支的条件.通过数值模拟发现：提高媒体报道的信息覆盖率或医院对病人的最大容纳量,可以显著降低疾病流行的峰值或稳态时的感染人数;随着参数变化,系统不仅可能会产生后向分支或前向分支,还可能会出现鞍结点分支、Hopf分支以及地方病平衡点稳定性随参数变化而变化等动力学行为.     

Optimal intervention strategies for tuberculosis

This paper deals with the problem of optimal control of a deterministic model of tuberculosis (abbreviated as TB for tubercle bacillus). We first present and analyze an uncontrolled tuberculosis model which incorporates the essential biological and epidemiological features of the disease. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated basic reproduction number is less than the unity. Based on this continuous model, the tuberculosis control is formulated and solved as an optimal control problem, indicating how control terms on the chemoprophylaxis and detection should be introduced in the population to reduce the number of individuals with active TB. Results provide a framework for designing the cost-effective strategies for TB with two intervention methods.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with standard incidence rate and treatment rate

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and treatment rate of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infectives on the disease spread. It is assumed that treatment rate is proportional to the numbers of infectives below the capacity and is a constant when the number of infectives is greater than the capacity. It is proved that the existence and stability of equilibria for the model is not only related to the basic reproduction number but also the capacity for treatment of infectives. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the capacity is small. It is also found that there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low.     

Dynamics of a two-strain vaccination model for polio

A new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of two strains of polio, the vaccine-derived polio virus (VDPV) and the wild polio virus (WPV), in a population is designed and rigorously analysed. It is shown that Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) reversion (leading to increased incidences of WPV and VDPV strains), together with the combined effect of vaccinating a fraction of the unvaccinated susceptible and missed susceptible children, could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other (with reproduction number less than unity) to extinction. In the absence of OPV reversions (leading to the co-existence of both strains in the population), it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that the model undergoes the phenomenon of competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other to extinction. Furthermore, co-existence of the two strains is feasible if their respective reproduction number are equal or approximately equal (and greater than unity).     

具有饱和治疗函数与密度制约的SIS传染病模型的后向分支

讨论了一个具有饱和治疗函数以及出生率和死亡率均具有密度制约的SIS传染病模型,其中总人口的变化满足Logistic方程,治疗项采用一个连续可微的函数,描述在医疗条件有限的情况下患病者的治疗被耽误的影响.研究发现当患病者的治疗被耽误的影响较强时,模型将出现后向分支,因此基本再生数R_0=1不再是疾病是否消亡的阈值.另外还得到无病平衡点和地方平衡点全局稳定的充分条件.     

Global and Bifurcation Analysis of an HIV Pathogenesis Model with Saturated Reverse Function

In this paper, an HIV dynamics model with the proliferation of CD4 T cells is proposed. The authors consider nonnegativity, boundedness, global asymptotic stability of the solutions and bifurcation properties of the steady states. It is proved that the virus is cleared from the host under some conditions if the basic reproduction number R_0 is less than unity. Meanwhile, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We also obtain one equilibrium is semi-stable by using center manifold theory. It is proved that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions if R_0 is greater than unity. It also is proved that the model undergoes Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium under some conditions. It is novelty that the model exhibits two famous bifurcations,backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. The model is extended to incorporate the specific Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes(CTLs) immune response. Stabilities of equilibria and Hopf bifurcation are considered accordingly. In addition, some numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical analysis results are also given in paper.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function is studied. Here the treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals is getting larger and the medical condition is limited. The global dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when such effect is weak. However, it is shown that a backward bifurcation will take place when this delayed effect for treatment is strong. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. And a critical value at the turning point is deduced as a new threshold. Some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium being globally asymptotically stable are also obtained. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that giving the patients timely treatment, improving the cure efficiency and decreasing the infective coefficient are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

医疗资源影响下具有潜伏期的一类传染病模型建立及性态分析

建立了医疗资源影响下的考虑疾病具有潜伏期的一类传染病模型,并分析了模型的动力学性态.发现疾病流行与否由基本再生数和医院病床数共同决定,并得到了病床数的阈值条件.当基本再生数R_0大于1时,系统只存在惟一正平衡点,且通过构造Dulac函数证明了正平衡点只要存在一定是全局渐近稳定的;当R_01,我们得到系统存在两个正平衡点及无正平衡点的条件,且只有当医院的病床数小于阈值时,系统会经历后向分支.因此,可根据实际情况使医院病床的投入量不低于阈值条件,不仅有利于疾病的控制而且不会出现医疗资源过剩的现象.     

Mathematical Analysis of West Nile Virus Model with Discrete Delays

The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (?₀) is less than unity. As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever ?₀ > 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the community if a certain threshold quantities, denoted by Δ_b and Δ_v are negative. On the other hand, increasing the length of the incubation period increases disease burden if Δ_b > 0 and Δ_v > 0. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to the corresponding autonomous model with standard incidence (considered in [2]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease).     

Qualitative study of a quarantine/isolation model with multiple disease stages

Recent studies suggest that, for disease transmission models with latent and infectious periods, the use of gamma distribution assumption seems to provide a better fit for the associated epidemiological data in comparison to the use of exponential distribution assumption. The objective of this study is to carry out a rigorous mathematical analysis of a communicable disease transmission model with quarantine (of latent cases) and isolation (of symptomatic cases), in which the waiting periods in the infected classes are assumed to have gamma distributions. Rigorous analysis of the model reveals that it has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever its associated reproduction number is less than unity. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity. The endemic equilibrium is shown to be locally and globally-asymptotically stable for special cases. Numerical simulations, using data related to the 2003 SARS outbreaks, show that the cumulative number of disease-related mortality increases with increasing number of disease stages. Furthermore, the cumulative number of new cases is higher if the asymptomatic period is distributed such that most of the period is spent in the early stages of the asymptomatic compartments in comparison to the cases where the average time period is equally distributed among the associated stages or if most of the time period is spent in the later (final) stages of the asymptomatic compartments. Finally, it is shown that distributing the average sojourn time in the infectious (asymptomatic) classes equally or unequally does not effect the cumulative number of new cases.     

Modeling and dynamics of HIV transmission among high-risk groups in Guangzhou city, China

In this paper, a multicompartmental model is formulated to study how HIV is transmitted among different HIV high-risk groups, including MSM (men who have sex with men), FRs (foreigner residents), FSWs (female sex workers), and IDUs (injection drug users). The explicit expression for the basic reproduction number is obtained via the next generation matrix approach. We show that the disease free equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable (the disease goes to extinction) when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, and the disease is always present when the basic reproduction number is larger than unity. As an illustration of our theoretical results, we conduct numerical simulations. We also conduct a case study where model parameters are estimated from the demographic and epidemiological data from Guangzhou. Using the parameter estimates, we predict the HIV/AIDS trend for each high-risk group. Furthermore, our study suggests that reducing the transmission routes of the disease and increasing condom use will be useful for control of HIV transmission.     

Bifurcations and complex dynamics of an SIR model with the impact of the number of hospital beds

In this paper we establish an SIR model with a standard incidence rate and a nonlinear recovery rate, formulated to consider the impact of available resource of the public health system especially the number of hospital beds. For the three dimensional model with total population regulated by both demographics and diseases incidence, we prove that the model can undergo backward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and cusp type of Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension 3. We present the bifurcation diagram near the cusp type of Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation point of codimension 3 and give epidemiological interpretation of the complex dynamical behaviors of endemic due to the variation of the number of hospital beds. This study suggests that maintaining enough number of hospital beds is crucial for the control of the infectious diseases.     

Global stability of a delayed epidemic model with latent period and vaccination strategy

In this paper, a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with an exposed (latent) period and waning vaccine-induced immunity is investigated. The basic reproduction number is found by applying the method of the next generation matrix. It is shown that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. By means of appropriate Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, it is proven that if the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease fades out; and if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and therefore the disease becomes endemic.