一类具有接种和时滞的非自治捕食-食饵的SIR传染病模型(英文)

A non-autonomous SIR epidemic model of prey-predator with vaccination and time delay is investigated in this paper. And an infectious disease is only considered to spread among the prey population. By using comparison principle and Lyapunov functional methods, we obtain the sufficient criteria for the permanence, extinction of infectious disease and the global attractively of the model. Furthermore, some numerical simulations illustrate that the vaccination has a better effect for disease controlling of infective prey.     

Optimal intervention strategies for tuberculosis

This paper deals with the problem of optimal control of a deterministic model of tuberculosis (abbreviated as TB for tubercle bacillus). We first present and analyze an uncontrolled tuberculosis model which incorporates the essential biological and epidemiological features of the disease. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated basic reproduction number is less than the unity. Based on this continuous model, the tuberculosis control is formulated and solved as an optimal control problem, indicating how control terms on the chemoprophylaxis and detection should be introduced in the population to reduce the number of individuals with active TB. Results provide a framework for designing the cost-effective strategies for TB with two intervention methods.     

Can HIV invade a population which is already sick?

It is known that an HIV infection when concomitant with another disease such as tuberculosis or pneumonia is a lot more lethal than HIV alone. We introduce two mathematical models for which if the concomitant diseases are prevalent enough in a given population and if double infections are lethal enough then HIV cannot take hold in this population. This provides an alternative (or a complement) to the theory that what determines whether a population will suffer an HIV epidemic is its sexual behavior. Our point of view may be relevant to the situation in Southeast Asia.     

Pulse and constant control schemes for epidemic models with seasonality

Control schemes for infectious disease models with time-varying contact rate are analyzed. First, time-constant control schemes are introduced and studied. Specifically, a constant treatment scheme for the infected is applied to a SIR model with time-varying contact rate, which is modelled by a switching parameter. Two variations of this model are considered: one with waning immunity and one with progressive immunity. Easily verifiable conditions on the basic reproduction number of the infectious disease are established which ensure disease eradication under these constant control strategies. Pulse control schemes for epidemic models with time-varying contact rates are also studied in detail. Both pulse vaccination and pulse treatment models are applied to a SIR model with time-varying contact rate. Further, a vaccine failure model as well as a model with a reduced infective class are considered with pulse control schemes. Again, easily verifiable conditions on the basic reproduction number are developed which guarantee disease eradication. Some simulations are given to illustrate the threshold theorems developed.     

The dynamics of an age-structured TB transmission model with relapse

This paper deals with the global dynamics for a tuberculosis transmission model with age-structure and relapse. The time delay in the progression from the latent individuals to becoming the infectious individuals is also considered in our model. We perform some rigorous analyses for the model, including presenting an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number of the model, addressing the persistence of the solution semiflow and the existence of a global attractor. Based on these analyses, we establish some results about stability and instability of the solutions for our model. At end, the model is applied to describe tuberculosis transmission in China. The number of the total population and the number of the annual newly reported TB cases both match the statistical data well. The number of the total population, the latent individuals, the infectious individuals, the Purified Protein Derivative (PPD) positive rate, and the prevalence rate from 2020 to 2035 all are presented.     

带脉冲接种和时滞的乙肝模型的稳定性分析

建立了具有脉冲接种和总人口变化的时滞SEIR模型.证明了当R^*<1时染病者消亡即疾病最终消失,当R_*>1时将发展为地方病.     

Complicated endemics of an SIRS model with a generalized incidence under preventive vaccination and treatment controls

In this paper, we propose and study an SIRS epidemic model that incorporates: a generalized incidence rate function describing mechanisms of the disease transmission; a preventive vaccination in the susceptible individuals; and different treatment control strategies depending on the infective population. We provide rigorous mathematical results combined with numerical simulations of the proposed model including: treatment control strategies can determine whether there is an endemic outbreak or not and the number of endemic equilibrium during endemic outbreaks, in addition to the effects of the basic reproduction number; the large value of the preventive vaccination rate can reduce or control the spread of disease; and the large value of the psychological or inhibitory effects in the incidence rate function can decrease the infective population. Some of our interesting findings are that the treatment strategies incorporated in our SIRS model are responsible for backward or forward bifurcations and multiple endemic equilibria; and the infective population decreases with respect to the maximal capacity of treatment. Our results may provide us useful biological insights on population managements for disease that can be modeled through SIRS compartments.     

Modelling the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a population with density-dependent birth and death rate

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to study the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a logistically growing human population. The host population is divided into four sub classes of susceptibles, TB infectives, HIV infectives (with or without TB) and that of AIDS patients. The model exhibits four equilibria namely, a disease free, HIV free, TB free and an endemic equilibrium. The model has been studied qualitatively using stability theory of nonlinear differential equations and computer simulation. We have found a threshold parameter R₀ which is if less than one, the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable otherwise for R₀>1, at least one of the infections will be present in the population. It is shown that the positive endemic equilibrium is always locally stable but it may become globally stable under certain conditions showing that the disease becomes endemic. It is found that as the number of TB infectives decreases due to recovery, the number of HIV infectives also decreases and endemic equilibrium tends to TB free equilibrium. It is also observed that number of AIDS individuals decreases if TB is not associated with HIV infection. A numerical study of the model is also performed to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.     

Three kinds of TVS in a SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission

Three different vaccination and treatment strategies in the SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission are analyzed. The dynamics of epidemic models are globally investigated by using Floquet theory and comparison theorem of impulsive differential equation. Thresholds are identified and global stability results are proved. For every treatment and vaccination strategy, the disease-free periodic solution of impulsive system has been obtained and is found to be globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, equivalently the cure rate is larger than the threshold value, whereas the disease is persistent when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. These results indicate that a large cure rate will lead to the eradication of a disease.     

一类具有二次感染和接种的两病株流行病模型

本文考虑了一类具有二次感染和接种的两病株流行病模型，通过定义每一病株的基本再生数和侵入再生数，我们分析了非负平衡态的稳定性并获得了这样结论：对于较低的接种水平，病株一感染者处于支配地位而病株二感染者将从易感人群中消失，对于非常高的接种水平，疾病将均被消除。     

总人口规模变化和带接种疫苗的年龄结构TB传染病模型的再生数

本文讨论总人口规模变化和带接种疫苗的年龄结构肺结核传染病模型,给出了该模型增值数的显式表达式(R)(ψ,λ)(λ为非病染人口的增长指数),证明了若(R)(ψ,λ)＜1,则无病平衡态是线性稳定的,若(R)(ψ,λ)＞1,则无病平衡态是不稳定的.     

Assessing the effects of poverty in tuberculosis transmission dynamics

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is enhanced by poor living conditions. In this study, a deterministic model was developed to assess the impact of socioeconomic conditions on TB transmission, taking into account heterogeneous mixing patterns. The epidemic thresholds known as the reproduction numbers, as well as equilibria for the model, are determined and stabilities analysed. Results from the study suggest that TB transmission is more common in poverty-stricken communities than in rich communities, supporting the argument that TB is a disease of the poor. The outcome is significantly dependent on the probability of latency, so that if the number of fast TB cases could be reduced, the epidemic would significantly improve. Interestingly, our results illustrate that heterogeneous mixing of the rich and poor will make the epidemic worse, but homogenous mixing will slightly improve the outcome. Further, even when all other factors are equal, the poor contact rate will have more impact than the rich contact rate. It follows that the rich community can help themselves by helping those less fortunate.     

Epidemic dynamics model with delay and impulsive vaccination control base on variable population

Pulse vaccination is an effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. In this paper, we considered an SEIR epidemic model with delay and impulsive vaccination direct at a variable population and analyzed its dynamic behaviors. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain the exact infection‐free periodic solution of the impulsive epidemic system, further, prove that the infection‐free periodic solution is globally attractive if the vaccination rate is larger than θ* or the length of latent period of disease is larger than τ* or the length of period of impulsive vaccination is smaller than T*. We also prove that a short latent period of the disease (with τ) or a long period of pulsing (with T) or a small pulse vaccination rate (with θ) is sufficient to bring about the disease is uniformly persistent. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类具有垂直传染与脉冲免疫的SEIR传染病模型的全局分析

考虑了一个具有垂直传染与积分时滞的SEIR传染病动力学模型.分析了该模型在脉冲免疫接种条件下的动力学行为,获得了传染病灭绝的充分条件,进而运用脉冲时滞泛函微分方程理论,获得了含有时滞的系统持久性的充分条件,并且证明了积分时滞与脉冲免疫能对模型的动力学行为产生显著的影响.     

Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

一类具有垂直传染和预防接种的SEIR传染病模型的定性分析

建立并分析了一类对出生时没有被染病母体垂直传染的染病者的新生儿进行免疫接种的SEIR传染病模型.得到了疾病是否灭绝的阈值R0,当R0<1时,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定的.当R0>1时,地方病平衡点局部渐近稳定的,且疾病一致持续生存.     

Modelling the spread of bacterial disease: effect of service providers from an environmentally degraded region

In this paper, an SIS model for bacterial infectious diseases, like tuberculosis, typhoid, etc., caused by direct contact of susceptibles with infectives as well as by bacteria is proposed and analyzed. Here the demography of the human population is constant immigration and the cumulative rate of the environmental discharges is a function of total human population. Further this model is extended to the model for socially structured population (rich and poor) where poor people work as service provider in the houses of rich people but do not settle in the habitat of rich people. It is assumed that bacteria population does not survive in the clean environment of rich people and only affects the population in the degraded environment of the poor class. The stability of the equilibria is studied by using the theory of differential equation and computer simulation. It is concluded that the spread of the infectious disease increases when the growth of bacteria caused by conducive environmental discharge due to human sources increases. Also the spread of the infectious disease in rich class increases due to the interaction with service providers, who are living in relatively poor environmental condition, suggesting the need to keep our environment clean all around.     

Dynamics of a discretized SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and time delay

We derive a discretized SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and time delay from the original continuous model. The sufficient conditions for global attractivity of an infection-free periodic solution and permanence of our model are obtained. Improving discretization, our results are corresponding to those in the original continuous model.     

Dynamics of a discretized SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and time delay

We derive a discretized SIR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and time delay from the original continuous model. The sufficient conditions for global attractivity of an infection-free periodic solution and permanence of our model are obtained. Improving discretization, our results are corresponding to those in the original continuous model.     

Dynamic equilibria of group vaccination strategies in a heterogeneous population

In this paper we present an evolutionary variational inequality model of vaccination strategies games in a population with a known vaccine coverage profile over a certain time interval. The population is considered to be heterogeneous, namely its individuals are divided into a finite number of distinct population groups, where each group has different perceptions of vaccine and disease risks. Previous game theoretical analyses of vaccinating behaviour have studied the strategic interaction between individuals attempting to maximize their health states, in situations where an individual’s health state depends upon the vaccination decisions of others due to the presence of herd immunity. Here we extend such analyses by applying the theory of evolutionary variational inequalities (EVI) to a (one parameter) family of generalized vaccination games. An EVI is used to provide conditions for existence of solutions (generalized Nash equilibria) for the family of vaccination games, while a projected dynamical system is used to compute approximate solutions of the EVI problem. In particular we study a population model with two groups, where the size of one group is strictly larger than the size of the other group (a majority/minority population). The smaller group is considered much less vaccination inclined than the larger group. Under these hypotheses, considering that the vaccine coverage of the entire population is measured during a vaccine scare period, we find that our model reproduces a feature of real populations: the vaccine averse minority will react immediately to a vaccine scare by dropping their strategy to a nonvaccinator one; the vaccine inclined majority does not follow a nonvaccinator strategy during the scare, although vaccination in this group decreases as well. Moreover we find that there is a delay in the majority’s reaction to the scare. This is the first time EVI problems are used in the context of mathematical epidemiology. The results presented emphasize the important role played by social heterogeneity in vaccination behaviour, while also highlighting the valuable role that can be played by EVI in this area of research.