Financial valuation of investments in future power generation technologies: nuclear fusion and CCS in an emissions trading system

This paper outlines a model approach for the financial valuation of future power generation technologies, such as nuclear fusion or carbon capture and storage (CCS) under an emissions trading regime. Since on imperfect markets, interdependencies between decisions inhibit the isolated valuation of an investment, we use simultaneous calculation of optimal production, sales and investment programs; these are subject to the constraints and conditions characteristic for investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies such as fusion and CCS. Duality theory allows to derive, identify and economically interpret the determinants for the price ceiling as (corrected) net present values. Sensitivity analysis shows how changes in the technical specification or environmental policies affect the maximum payable price. Particularly, tradable permits have several effects on low-carbon investments and do not always encourage CO ₂ abatement. While a zero-emissions technology like fusion always profits from a tightened emissions trading scheme, for low-carbon technology like CCS—in particular cases—this may even be counterproductive from an economic as well as an environmental point of view.     

毗邻沙漠地区微分博弈模型与宏观环境治理策略研究

工业化发展导致了脆弱的土地进一步沙漠化,沙漠地区政府应综合考虑经济发展与土地沙漠化导致的生态质量降低。通过构建两个沙漠化地区微分博弈模型,研究了两个地区的沙漠治理问题。研究结果表明,提高工业生产排放技术或沙漠治理技术均能够提高均衡经济产出水平,在工业生产收益系数较高的情况下也能够提高沙漠治理投入水平,并且两种技术提高存在交互效应;只有对生产排放技术水平和沙漠治理技术水平较高的地区,延长地方政府领导任期有利于沙漠治理;实现沙漠完全治理情况下控制土地再沙化的治理投入低于控制沙漠稳定在一定规模的治理投入。     

Economic design of integrated model of control chart and maintenance management

There are two key tools for the control of production processes — Statistical Process Control (SPC) and Maintenance Management (MM), which are traditionally separated (both in science and in business practice), even though their goals overlap a great deal. Their common goal is to achieve optimal product quality, little downtime and cost reduction by controlling variances in the process. Since single or separated parallel applications may not be fully effective, this paper discusses the integration of statistical process control and maintenance, and provides an integrated model of Control Chart (CC) and MM. A mathematical model is given to analyze the cost of the integrated model and the grid-search approach is used to find the optimal values of policy variables (n,h,L,k) that minimize hourly cost. Finally, a numerical experiment is conducted to investigate the effects of cost parameters on the solution of the design.     

吸收能力与企业R＆D合作策略研究

由于技术溢出的存在,企业创新投资的私人收益率要低于社会收益率,从而导致创新动力的不足。然而,技术溢出能够被企业所用的条件是企业必须具有吸收能力。本文假设吸收能力决定于R＆D投资和技术差异性,通过引入吸收能力扩展了只考虑外生技术溢出的AJ模型,分析了R＆D不合作、R＆D合作和全合作三种情况下均衡R＆D投入水平和产量,并与AJ模型进行了比较。     

国内外投资对制造业技术进步影响的行业分化特征

本文首先采用1996年-2008年中国制造业分行业数据,选择随机前沿生产函数模型测度了制造业各行业的全要素生产率变化率,通过调整得到技术进步率,在此基础上,利用2001年-2007年国内外投资的数据基于面板数据模型,研究了制造业各行业国内外投资对技术进步影响的问题,旨在揭示改革开放以来尤其是经济发展较快的最近几年制造业技术进步的源泉,并进一步探讨技术进步来源不同的两类行业的行业分化特征。实证结果表明,制造业绝大多数行业的技术进步来源于国内投资或外商投资,个别行业甚至同时受国内外投资的双重影响,当行业特征表现为市场竞争程度高且外商投资对国内投资比重偏高时,技术进步更倾向来源于国内投资,反之则更倾向来源于外商投资。     

Multi-resource investment strategies: Operational hedging under demand uncertainty

Consider a firm that markets multiple products, each manufactured using several resources representing various types of capital and labor, and a linear production technology. The firm faces uncertain product demand and has the option to dynamically readjust its resource investment levels, thereby changing the capacities of its linear manufacturing process. The cost to adjust a resource level either up or down is assumed to be linear. The model developed here explicitly incorporates both capacity investment decisions and production decisions, and is general enough to include reversible and irreversible investment. The product demand vectors for successive periods are assumed to be independent and identically distributed. The optimal investment strategy is determined with a multi-dimensional newsvendor model using demand distributions, a technology matrix, prices (product contribution margins), and marginal investment costs. Our analysis highlights an important conceptual distinction between deterministic and stochastic environments: the optimal investment strategy in our stochastic model typically involves some degree of capacity imbalance which can never be optimal when demand is known.     

Diversity of firm’s life cycle adapted from the firm’s technology investment decision

The stylized model presented is an optimal control model of technology investment decision of a single product firm. The firm’s technology investment does not have only a long-run positive effect but also a short-run adverse effect on its sales volume. We examine the case of high adverse investment effects where the firm finally leaves the market but we have observed different life cycles till this happens. Depending on the firm’s initial technology stock and sales volume, we compute different firm’s life cycles, which are driven by a trade-off between two strategies: technology versus sales focus strategy. Indifference curves, where managers are indifferent to apply initially technology or sales focus strategies, separate founding conditions of the firm to various classes distinguishable because of the firm’s life cycle.     

外商直接投资对碳强度的影响——基于中国省级动态面板数据的实证研究

经济发展依赖大量化石能源的投入,由此引起的温室气体排放所带来的气候变化正在日益威胁着世界各国。大部分发展中国家由于缺乏足够的资金和技术能力,难以应对日愈严峻的气候风险。中国作为发展中国家,在不断尽力扩大有限自主研发的同时,必须依靠发达国家的技术溢出来获得先进的低碳技术,进而降低自身的排放量以完成对世界所作出的节能减排承诺。本文利用省级面板数据和动态面板模型来研究外商直接投资的技术溢出对中国碳强度的影响。研究结果表明,外商直接投资技术溢出有效地降低了中国的碳强度,从而为中国实现节能减排目标提供了一个新的视角和思路。     

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH IN UNDERSTANDING THE RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF SOURCES OF NUTRIENTS TO COASTAL WATERS

ABSTRACT. We model the value of environmental research in the presence of uncertainty about thesources of environmental pollutants and natural processes affecting the level of pollution. The model may be used to estimate the value of environmental research directed at resolving the uncertainty. We illustrate the model using a numerical simulation of a hypothetical case involving nutrient pollution of coastal waters. We show that the ex ante value of research is positively related to the level of uncertainty. There is a diminishing return with respect to the level of research investment. We find that research is more valuable ex post if it leads to unexpected findings.     

个体投资治理污染的随机增长模型

本文研究了个体投资治理污染的随机增长模型.利用随机最优化的方法,得出了随机扰动、个体环保投资及环保技术对福利和经济增长的影响.对我国制定环保政策具有一定的积极作用.     

坑口电厂低碳经济发展系统动力学仿真研究

通过分析坑口电厂低碳经济系统的复杂结构特征和动态反馈机制,建立了坑口电厂低碳经济系统动力学模型,描述系统内部各要素之间的相互关系,并以平煤集团坑口电厂为例,对不同发展方案下的坑口电厂低碳经济系统进行仿真模拟.结果表明:科技投资、环保投资、能源利用率、能源消费结构等因素是影响坑口电厂低碳经济发展的关键因素;可以通过优化能源消费结构,提高煤矸石消耗比例;增加科技投资和环保投资,提高能源利用和转换效率,降低污染物和二氧化碳排放量,从而达到高效率、低能耗、低排放的低碳经济发展模式.     

非常规油气资源开发投资决策优化模型研究

非常规油气资源作为最现实的可替代能源,对其进行勘探和开发对于降低日益加大的石油供需矛盾缺口和确保国家能源安全均具有重要的战略意义。然而,非常规油气资源勘探开发十分复杂,开发投资决策好坏已经成为制约其能否实现规模化和产业化的关键问题,科学投资决策问题已逐步成为石油企业高层管理者的主要职责。针对非常规油气资源开发投资的多阶段多目标决策优化难题,以可供开发区块的资源分配为重点研究对象,从解决不同区块投资规模入手,运用多阶段决策、多目标决策和不确定多属性方案优选的方法理论,通过剖析非常规油气开发投资决策过程及其复杂性特征,将开发投资决策过程进行形式化描述并在计算机中加以实现,从而得以实现开发投资决策方案的动态性调整。本项研究不仅有助于深化多目标动态优化决策理论的研究,还为解决非常规油气资源开发投资决策难题提供一种新的思路和方法。     

海外区域技术平台投资的时机选择模型及实证研究

基于后发企业海外区域技术平台(RTP)投资中“成熟技术产品推广”和“新技术产品开发”两个阶段,本文构建了两阶段实物期权模型。进一步,利用中国制造业对外直接投资(OFDI)的上市公司样本,考察了RTP投资时机选择的决定因素及影响效果。研究发现,第一阶段外生不确定性越低、第二阶段内生不确定性越高、新技术产品项目的增长期权越大,企业越倾向于尽早地RTP投资于海外市场;在两阶段内外生不确定性的不同条件下,RTP投资时机相应地对企业创新增长产生了显著的差异影响。     

循环效应及其在能源消耗与经济增长关系中的实证分析

一些变量相互影响,在相互作用过程中可能形成循环效应,已有研究表明能源消耗与经济增长呈正相关或存在双向因果关系;现做进一步深入研究,目的是研究能源消耗与经济增长之间的相互作用路径,即循环效应.包括技术进步在此循环过程中的中介效应,固定资产投资在此循环过程中的调节作用;采用二阶最小二乘(2LS)算法进行模型估计.采集1990-2012年数据,进行循环过程中的中介效应检验和有中介的调节效应检验.实证表明能源消耗和经济增长之间存在循环效应,技术进步在能源消耗和经济增长之间起循环的中介作用;固定资产投资在能源消耗引起经济增长过程中的调节作用部分地通过技术进步发挥作用,在经济增长引起能源消耗过程中的调节作用完全地通过技术进步发挥作用.     

中国海洋可持续发展的SD模型与动态模拟

发展海洋经济,走海洋可持续发展之路,是振兴我国经济的一项举足轻重战略决策.从我国海洋的实际出发,运用系统动力学理论与方法建立了海洋可持续发展仿真模型.选择技术投资比例、单位海洋产业产值排污系数以及单位海洋产业产值资源消耗系数作为控制参量,分别取用不同的数值进行模拟.得到模拟结果表明,同时加大海洋经济中技术投资比,减少排污系数和资源消耗系数,海洋经将得到持续发展.并提出适合我国海洋可持续发展的政策建议.     

产业核心技术突破的多主体多级均衡问题研究

产业核心技术研发具有“投入大、周期长、突破难”的特点,需走多主体参与、多级利益均衡、递阶式技术突破之路。基于此,立足产业外围技术发展和核心技术突破不同阶段,分别构建了“政府-企业”间的委托-代理博弈模型以及“政府-企业-学研机构”间的多方合作博弈模型;通过模型求解和数值仿真,分析各方博弈主体的损益关系以及影响其行为的关键因素。研究表明,影响外围技术发展的主要因素有企业的创新努力水平、政府激励、企业的风险规避度以及政企之间信息不对称的程度等,而影响核心技术突破的主要因素有政府激励、产学研创新费用、技术实现突破方式的概率等,相应地,不同阶段的对策与策略也应重点围绕上述因素进行设计。     

Optimal production strategy under demand fluctuations: Technology versus capacity

This paper provides a comparative analysis of five possible production strategies for two kinds of flexibility investment, namely flexible technology and flexible capacity, under demand fluctuations. Each strategy is underpinned by a set of operations decisions on technology level, capacity amount, production quantity, and pricing. By evaluating each strategy, we show how market uncertainty, production cost structure, operations timing, and investment costing environment affect a firm’s strategic decisions. The results show that there is no sequential effect of the two flexibility investments. We also illustrate the different ways in which flexible technology and flexible capacity affect a firm’s profit under demand fluctuations. The results reveal that compared to no flexibility investment, flexible technology investment earns the same or a higher profit for a firm, whereas flexible capacity investment can be beneficial or harmful to a firm’s profit. Moreover, we prove that higher flexibility does not guarantee more profit. Depending on the situation, the optimal strategy can be any one of the five possible strategies. We also provide the optimality conditions for each strategy.     

农产品供应链质量安全中区块链技术投入的演化分析

针对农产品质量安全的不确定性,及引入区块链技术能提高农产品质量安全溯源信息的可信度,建立了基于区块链技术投入的农产品供应商与加工者的演化博弈模型,并对模型的动力系统和策略稳定性进行了分析和系统模拟仿真。研究发现：企业进行区块链技术投入的策略与其投入后市场需求增加率有直接关系,随着市场需求增加率的变化,系统出现多种演化稳定均衡。政府的补贴机制,能解决企业进行区块链技术投入中存在的“搭便车”问题;促使供应链的成员企业均进行区块链技术投入。研究结果对政府策略的制定和企业进行区块链技术投入决策具有一定的启示。     

IMPACT OF OPERATING COSTS ON INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN NEW TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION WITH A FURTHER NEW TECHNOLOGY ANTICIPATED

The adoption of new technologies often represents a crucial component of firms＇ investment decisions. This paper studies a dynamic duopoly model in which two firms compete in adoption of current technology with a further new technology anticipated. Here it is assumed that the operating costs are not zero which has more explanatory power of the real world. There exist three kinds of equilibria that may occur in adoption of current technology, which mainly depends on the level of operating costs and the first-move advantage. It shows that the faster technological substitution or innovation encourages the leader to invest earlier while induces the follower to invest later. Furthermore,like the investment costs,with the increase of operating costs the follower tends to invest later while the leader tends to invest earlier ,the investment thresholds are more sensitive to the change of operating costs than that of investment costs.     

A framework for evaluating remote diagnostics investment decisions for semiconductor equipment suppliers

With advances in information technology, service activities for expensive equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing can be performed from a remote location. This capability is called remote diagnostics (RD). Currently, there are intense development efforts in the semiconductor industry for implementing RD in wafer fabrication facilities to reduce maintenance and capital costs and improve productivity. In this paper, we develop a queueing-location model to analyze the capacity and location problem of after sales service providers, considering the effects of RD technology. Our model optimizes the location, capacity and the type of service centers while taking congestion effects into consideration. We solve this model using a simulation optimization approach in which we use a genetic algorithm to search the solution space. We demonstrate how our methodology can be used in strategic investment planning regarding the adoption of RD technology and service center siting through a realistic case study.