海外区域技术平台投资的时机选择模型及实证研究

基于后发企业海外区域技术平台(RTP)投资中“成熟技术产品推广”和“新技术产品开发”两个阶段,本文构建了两阶段实物期权模型。进一步,利用中国制造业对外直接投资(OFDI)的上市公司样本,考察了RTP投资时机选择的决定因素及影响效果。研究发现,第一阶段外生不确定性越低、第二阶段内生不确定性越高、新技术产品项目的增长期权越大,企业越倾向于尽早地RTP投资于海外市场;在两阶段内外生不确定性的不同条件下,RTP投资时机相应地对企业创新增长产生了显著的差异影响。

The Timing Choice Model and Empirical Study of Overseas Regional Technology Platform Investment

Based on the first phase of “mature technology product promotion” and the second phase of “new technology product development” in overseas regional technology platform(RTP)investment of backwardness enterprise, this paper constructs a two-stage real option model. Further, based on OFDI sample of Chinese listed companies in manufacturing industry, this paper empirically analyzes the decisive factors and effects of RTP investment timing choice. The research results show that, the smaller exogenous uncertainty in the first stage, the larger endogenous uncertainty in the second stage, and the larger the growth option for new product projects, the more the enterprises tend to RTP invest as soon as possible. Furthermore, under the different conditions of endogenous and exogenous uncertainties in the two stages, the investment timing of RTP has a significant difference effect on the innovation growth of enterprises.