基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE法的国有商业银行竞争力评价

随着金融业全方位开放,国有商业银行已成为国家经济命脉的核心,其竞争力强弱关系着国家经济的繁荣与衰退。本文基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE方法建立国有商业银行竞争力评价模型,以因素神经网络理论(FNN)与ELECTRE融合方法为基础,以现有商业银行竞争力评价指标为着眼,把国有商业银行竞争力的评价体系从现实竞争力和潜在竞争力两个因素抽取为一级指标,以规模、质量、业务结构、效率、成长性五个因素设为二级指标。从实证的角度对银行A、银行B、银行C、银行D、银行E五大国有银行进行分析验证,对其属性值进行和谐性与非和谐性检验得出,银行B竞争能力最强,银行E竞争能力最弱,五大国有银行均有改进空间。     

中国煤层气的产业化进程与发展建议

煤层气产业在中国能源建设中具有重要战略地位。中国煤层气勘探开发历经矿井瓦斯抽排利用、现代煤层气理论技术的引进发展与成功应用、商业化开发试验及产业化发展（初期）4个阶段。由于在煤层气地质基础理论、勘探技术方法、开发工艺技术、集输利用与管理制度等方面的发展创新、系统集成,我国已有能力大规模发展煤层气产业,这在我国能源发展战略上是非常难得的历史机遇。当前,为了加快煤层气产业的发展,必须加强统筹规划,发挥多种积极性;加强煤层气地质研究、提高对区域勘探的指导与目标评价水平;开展高效低成本开发工艺技术攻关;发展煤层气产品集输和加工利用;继续跟踪国外煤层气前沿理论技术,加强技术交流与合作研究。     

环境治理政策的减排、增效与结构优化效果动态评价

为测度环境治理政策波动对产出、减排、要素配置、消费与产业结构的影响及其传导机制,将异质性消费偏好、产出差异性、环境效用和环境损失函数引入E-DSGE模型。政策强度分析发现,技术进步、排污税和消费税政策效果较强,环境控制和治污支出冲击效果较弱。政策效应分析发现,技术进步政策效应最优,能实现增产和减排双重目标,促进要素配置和居民消费、产出与消费结构改进;排污税和政府治污支出政策次优,能实现增产和减排的双赢目标,促进要素供给和产出结构清洁化,不利于消费提升和消费结构优化;环境控制与消费税政策效果最差,以牺牲产出实现减排,不利于要素配置,产出与消费结构改进效果较弱,消费税会抑制居民消费,但消费税政策效果随环境友好型家庭比例提升而加强。     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Effects of permeability and viscosity in linear polymeric gels

We propose and analyze a mathematical model of the mechanics of gels, consisting of the laws of balance of mass and linear momentum of the polymer and liquid components of the gel. We consider a gel to be an immiscible and incompressible mixture of a nonlinearly elastic polymer and a fluid. The problems that we study are motivated by predictions of the life cycle of body‐implantable medical devices. Scaling arguments suggest neglecting inertia terms, and therefore, we consider the quasi‐static approximation to the dynamics. We focus on the linearized system about stress‐free states, uniform expansions, and compressions and derive sufficient conditions for the solvability of the time‐dependent problems. These turn out to be conditions that guarantee local stability of the equilibrium solutions. We also consider non‐stress free equilibria and states with residual stress and derive an energy law for the corresponding time‐dependent system. The conditions that guarantee stability of solutions provide a selection criteria of the material parameters of devices. The boundary conditions that we consider are of two types, displacement‐traction and permeability of the gel surface to the fluid. We address the cases of viscous and inviscid solvent, assume Newtonian dissipation for the polymer component, and establish existence of weak solutions for the different boundary permeability conditions and viscosity assumptions. We present two‐dimensional, finite element numerical simulations to study stress concentration on edges, this being the precursor to debonding of the gel from its substrate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure and Properties of Nanocrystalline Oxide Powders

The crystalline and porous structure of superfine powders and fibers made of alumina and zirconia doped with yttria is investigated. The particle sizes were determined by the methods of coherent dispersion and scanning transmission electron microscopy. Based on data on the sizes of crystallites of the metal oxides, which were obtained by different methods, it is found that crystalline transformations of the oxides lead to dispersion of the materials. The structural transformations of the superfine oxides are accompanied by changes in crystallite sizes and in the character and size of pores. The laws established allow one to purposefully control the process of producing nanostructured oxide powders and fibers, which can be utilized as active fillers for composite materials based on various matrices. __________ Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 41, No. 6, pp. 831–840, November–December, 2005.     

乡村绿色生态旅游适宜等级VIKOR评估方法

针对乡村绿色生态旅游特征,并考虑旅游者个体感受与群体效益,本文从乡村绿色生态旅游开发与适宜评级概念出发,提出乡村绿色生态旅游适宜等级VIKOR评估模型与方法。首先,从等级评估的概念与内涵出发,刻画乡村绿色生态旅游适宜评级问题,避免混淆旅游适宜评级和排序两个本质不同的问题。然后,构建乡村绿色生态旅游适宜等级评估指标及隶属函数,提出评估指标的熵权确定方法。其次,提出乡村绿色生态旅游适宜等级VIKOR评估模型与二元语义等级评估方法。最后,通过案例研究和比较分析,说明本文所提模型与方法的合理性、可行性与实用性。     

A 3D modeling of static and forward smoldering combustion in a packed bed of materials

A three-dimensional (3D) model based on the first principles of mass, momentum and energy was developed that numerically simulates the processes of static and forward smoldering in a porous packed bed of plant materials. The packed bed contains cellulose material or tobacco (cigarette) wrapped in a porous paper and surrounded by an ambient air. Other major characteristics of the model are including the effects of buoyancy forces in the flow field, separate treatment of solid and gas in a thermally non-equilibrium environment, and use of multi-precursor kinetic models for the pyrolysis of staring material and oxidation of char. The changes in porosity due to pyrolysis and char oxidation and the effect of porosity on the bed permeability and gas diffusivity are included. The mass, momentum, energy, and species transport equations are solved in a discretized computational domain using a commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code. The simulation results show that the model reasonably reproduces the major features of a burning cigarette during smoldering and puffing and are in a good agreement with the existing experimental results for cigarettes. Results include the velocity profiles, gas and solid temperatures, coal shape, burn rates, profile and transport of gas and vapor species throughout the packed bed, dilution through the wrapper paper and ventilation in the filter section, and the mass fraction of some pyrolysis and oxidation products in the mainstream and sidestream flows.     

基于数值分布的激励型综合评价方法

针对激励评价中的等级划分问题,本文提出了一种基于数值分布的等级划分方法,相比于现有的等级划分方法,该方法能够综合考虑数值分布情况来划分等级,并结合本文提出的等级划分法对密度算子进行拓展,提出了一种基于数值分布的激励型综合评价方法。首先本文从数值分布的角度提出了一种新的等级划分方法,从而得出各等级区间的等级区间分界点;其次确定等级系数,并结合指标值和等级区间分界点给出各指标的权向量,给出一种不需要进行归一化处理的等级权向量确定方法,该方法能够较好的解决归一化处理带来的不公平性;再次根据密度算子思想对评价数据进行集结得出评价结果;最后通过一个算例对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法可以实现对被评价对象科学激励的作用。该方法尤其适用于企业员工激励、省市综合排名、高校人才选拔等问题。     

生物信息中的概率统计方法

随着生物研究技术的不断改进与突破，特别是人类，水稻，大鼠，小鼠等的基因组测序与后基因组计划的迅猛推进，未来几年蛋白质和核酸的测序数据将以指数方式增加，生物信息学成为当前生物学领域的研究热点，预计在未来的若干年中它还将变得越来越重要．这是因为海量数据的获，导只是为知识的获得提供了条件，如果不能从中找出规律性的事物，数据本身往往并不显示知识．例如人类基因组测序只不过提供了用4种核酸(A，T，C，G)的序列书写成的人类机体的设计书．拿到了书并不意味着知道书中的内容．对一个识字不多的人来说，拿到书只是到达懂得书中内容这一遥远征途的第一小步．事实上，人们对于人类基因组的认识，大概也就是小学水平．另一方面，当前，生物的实验技术不仅达到了很高的精度，而且具有极高的通量．我们正在生物信息学研究的一个有活力的新时代．不少科学家还说它是人类基因组研究的收获时代，它不仅将赋予人们获得各种基础研究的重要成果的可能性，也带来取得巨大的经济效益和社会效益成果的很多机会．这是一个难得的机遇，我国应尽快综合利用它，充分发挥各学科交叉研究的威力，走向国际科学界的最前沿．在这一过程中，数学思想、模型、算法，特别是概率统计的思想与方法起到很关键的作用．     

Curvature in Special Base Conformal Warped Products

We introduce the concept of a base conformal warped product of two pseudo-Riemannian manifolds. We also define a subclass of this structure called as a special base conformal warped product. After, we explicitly mention many of the relevant fields where metrics of these forms and also considerations about their curvature related properties play important rolls. Among others, we cite general relativity, extra-dimension, string and super-gravity theories as physical subjects and also the study of the spectrum of Laplace-Beltrami operators on p-forms in global analysis. Then, we give expressions for the Ricci tensor and scalar curvature of a base conformal warped product in terms of Ricci tensors and scalar curvatures of its base and fiber, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce specific identities verified by particular families of, either scalar or tensorial, nonlinear differential operators on pseudo-Riemannian manifolds. The latter allow us to obtain new interesting expressions for the Ricci tensor and scalar curvature of a special base conformal warped product and it turns out that not only the expressions but also the analytical approach used are interesting from the physical, geometrical and analytical point of view. Finally, we analyze, investigate and characterize possible solutions for the conformal and warping factors of a special base conformal warped product, which guarantee that the corresponding product is Einstein. Besides all, we apply these results to a generalization of the Schwarzschild metric.      

Mechanics of Delaminations in Laminate Composite Structures

A survey of the literature and state of the art of the mechanical aspects of delaminations in laminate composite structures is presented. Surface and internal delaminations of various origin, shape, and location are discussed. The origination, stability, and postcritical behavior of delaminations under quasi-static, cyclic, and dynamic loads are analyzed. Some problems for further investigations are discussed.     

Simulating the effect of nepotism on political risk taking and social unrest

Nepotism has been the primary influence on political behavior throughout human history. Despite the spread of democracy in the 20th century, nepotistic regimes have hardly disappeared. Nepotism heavily influences political activity throughout the developing world, Middle East, and central Asia where family ties are essential for gaining access to power, state resources, and privileges. Rebelling against such nepotistic regimes is difficult and risky. RiskTaker is an agent-based model we developed for testing the influences of various social forces on risk taking behavior, including the formulation of rebellious coalitions. We use RiskTaker to examine the influence of nepotism on the distribution of wealth and social status. Nepotism heavily skews the distribution of wealth and status, leading to the formation of opposing coalitions and exacerbating social unrest.This paper was tied for Best Paper, NAACSOS (North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Science) Annual Conference 2005, June 26–28, Notre Dame. Robert Sedlmeyer, Department of Computer Science, Indiana University – Purdue University, Fort Wayne provided programming for the RiskTaker model. Lawrence A. Kuznar is a professor of anthropology and director of the Decision Sciences and Theory Institute at Indiana University—Purdue University, Fort Wayne. He has conducted fieldwork among Aymara Indians in Andean Peru and the Navajo of the American southwest. His research interests include computer modeling, theories of risk taking and conflict, terrorism, social evolution, and scientific epistemology. He has authored articles in Ecological Economics (with W. Frederick), Current Anthropology, American Anthropologist, Mathematical Anthropology and Culture Theory and Journal of Anthropological Research, and published two books (Awatimarka Harcourt Brace, 1995 and Reclaiming a Scientific Anthropology Altamira Press, 1997) and two edited volumes. William Frederick has served as a faculty member in the departments of mathematical sciences and the department of computer sciences at Indiana University—Purdue University, Fort Wayne since 1979. His primary interests include mathematical modeling, game theory, and genetic algorithms.     

双边配给问题的Shapley解及其在博物馆通票问题中的应用

双边配给问题描述了现实生活中一类带有二部图结构的稀缺资源配置问题, 例如, 在自然灾害期间救援物资的配给; 电力和天然气等自然资源按需分配; 高校引进人才调配等。本文通过求解线性规划, 并从联盟边际贡献的角度出发定义了双边配给问题的一个Shapley解。之后, 通过合作对策模型和解的公理化方法说明新解的合理性。首先, 建立双边配给问题的合作对策模型, 论证了新解与双边配给合作对策的Shapley值一致; 其次, 证明了Shapley解是唯一满足优先一致性的有效配给方案。最后, 将Shapley解应用于博物馆通票问题的研究, 探讨了博物馆合作制定通票后所得单票和通票收益的分配方式。     

The generalized hierarchical product of graphs

A generalization of both the hierarchical product and the Cartesian product of graphs is introduced and some of its properties are studied. We call it the generalized hierarchical product. In fact, the obtained graphs turn out to be subgraphs of the Cartesian product of the corresponding factors. Thus, some well-known properties of this product, such as a good connectivity, reduced mean distance, radius and diameter, simple routing algorithms and some optimal communication protocols, are inherited by the generalized hierarchical product. Besides some of these properties, in this paper we study the spectrum, the existence of Hamiltonian cycles, the chromatic number and index, and the connectivity of the generalized hierarchical product.     

From inequalities involving exponential functions and sums to logarithmically complete monotonicity of ratios of gamma functions

In this paper, the authors review origins, motivations, and generalizations of a series of inequalities involving finitely many exponential functions and sums. They establish three new inequalities involving finitely many exponential functions and sums by finding convexity of a function related to the generating function of the Bernoulli numbers. They also survey the history, backgrounds, generalizations, logarithmically complete monotonicity, and applications of a series of ratios of finitely many gamma functions, present complete monotonicity of a linear combination of finitely many trigamma functions, construct a new ratio of finitely many gamma functions, derive monotonicity, logarithmic convexity, concavity, complete monotonicity, and the Bernstein function property of the newly constructed ratio of finitely many gamma functions. Finally, they suggest two linear combinations of finitely many trigamma functions and two ratios of finitely many gamma functions to be investigated.     

Manufacturing flow line systems: a review of models and analytical results

The most important models and results of the manufacturing flow line literature are described. These include the major classes of models (asynchronous, synchronous, and continuous); the major features (blocking, processing times, failures and repairs); the major properties (conservation of flow, flow rate-idle time, reversibility, and others); and the relationships among different models. Exact and approximate methods for obtaining quantitative measures of performance are also reviewed. The exact methods are appropriate for small systems. The approximate methods, which are the only means available for large systems, are generally based on decomposition, and make use of the exact methods for small systems. Extensions are briefly discussed. Directions for future research are suggested.     

The Poincaré index and the χy-characteristic of Hirzebruch

In the paper, we discuss several methods for computing the homology of contravariant and covariant versions of the classical De Rham complex on analytic spaces. Our approach is based on the theory of holomorphic and regular meromorphic differential forms, and is applicable in different settings depending on concrete types of varieties. Among other things, we describe how to compute by elementary calculations the homological index of vector fields and differential forms given on Cohen–Macaulay curves, graded normal surfaces, complete intersections and some others. In these situations, making use of ideas of X. Gómez-Mont, we derive explicit expressions for the local topological index of Poincaré and its generalizations. Furthermore, applying similar methods to the study of certain other complexes, we investigate some challenges, relating to the computation of classical topological–analytical invariants, such as the Euler characteristic of the Milnor fibre of an isolated singularity, the multiplicity of the discriminant of the versal deformation, the dimension of torsion and cotorsion modules, and so on.     

Mapping deontic operators to abductive expectations

Deontic concepts and operators have been widely used in several fields where representation of norms is needed, including legal reasoning and normative multi-agent systems. The EU-funded SOCS project has provided a language to specify the agent interaction in open multi-agent systems. The language is equipped with a declarative semantics based on abductive logic programming, and an operational semantics consisting of a (sound and complete) abductive proof procedure. In the SOCS framework, the specification is used directly as a program for the verification procedure. In this paper, we propose a mapping of the usual deontic operators (obligations, prohibition, permission) to language entities, called expectations, available in the SOCS social framework. Although expectations and deontic operators can be quite different from a philosophical viewpoint, we support our mapping by showing a similarity between the abductive semantics for expectations and the Kripke semantics that can be given to deontic operators. The main purpose of this work is to make the computational machinery from the SOCS social framework available for the specification and verification of systems by means of deontic operators. Marco Alberti received his laurea degree in Electronic Engineering in 2001 and his Ph.D. in Information Engineering in 2005 from the University of Ferrara, Italy. His research interests include constraint logic programming and abductive logic programming, applied in particular to the specification and verification of multi-agent systems. He has been involved as a research assistants in national and European research projects. He currently has a post-doc position in the Department of Engineering at the University of Ferrara. Marco Gavanelli is currently assistant professor in the Department of Engineering at the University of Ferrara, Italy. He graduated in Computer Science Engineering in 1998 at the University of Bologna, Italy. He got his Ph.D. in 2002 at Ferrara University. His research interest include Artificial Intelligence, Constraint Logic Programming, Multi-criteria Optimisation, Abductive Logic Programming, Multi-Agent Systems. He is a member of ALP (the Association for Logic Programming) and AI*IA (the Italian Association for Artificial Intelligence). He has organised workshops, and is author of more than 30 publications between journals and conference proceedings. Evelina Lamma received her degree in Electronic Engineering from University of Bologna, Italy, in 1985 and her Ph.D. degree in Computer Science in 1990. Currently she is Full Professor at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Ferrara where she teaches Artificial Intelligence and Foundations of Computer Science. Her research activity focuses around: – programming languages (logic languages, modular and object-oriented programming); – artificial intelligence; – knowledge representation; – intelligent agents and multi-agent systems; – machine learning. Her research has covered implementation, application and theoretical aspects. She took part to several national and international research projects. She was responsible of the research group at the Dipartimento di Ingegneria of the University of Ferrara in the UE ITS-2001-32530 Project (named SOCS), in the the context of the UE V Framework Programme - Global Computing Action. Paola Mello received her degree in Electronic Engineering from the University of Bologna, Italy, in 1982, and her Ph.D. degree in Computer Science in 1989. Since 1994 she has been Full Professor. She is enrolled, at present, at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Bologna (Italy), where she teaches Artificial Intelligence. Her research activity focuses on programming languages, with particular reference to logic languages and their extensions, artificial intelligence, knowledge representation, expert systems with particular emphasis on medical applications, and multi-agent systems. Her research has covered implementation, application and theoretical aspects and is presented in several national and international publications. She took part to several national and international research projects in the context of computational logic. Giovanni Sartor is Marie-Curie professor of Legal informatics and Legal Theory at the European University Institute of Florence and professor of Computer and Law at the University of Bologna (on leave), after obtaining a PhD at the European University Institute (Florence), working at the Court of Justice of the European Union (Luxembourg), being a researcher at the Italian National Council of Research (ITTIG, Florence), and holding the chair in Jurisprudence at Queen’s University of Belfast (where he now is honorary professor). He is co-editor of the Artificial Intelligence and Law Journal and has published widely in legal philosophy, computational logic, legislation technique, and computer law. Paolo Torroni is Assistant Professor in computing at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Bologna, Italy. He obtained a PhD in Computer Science and Electronic Engineering in 2002, with a dissertation on logic-based agent reasoning and interaction. His research interests mainly focus on computational logic and multi-agent systems research, including logic programming, abductive and hypothetical reasoning, agent interaction, dialogue, negotiation, and argumentation. He is in the steering committee of the CLIMA and DALT international workshops and of the Italian logic programming interest group GULP.     

房地产业对中国经济真的那么重要吗？

为恰当评估房地产业对中国经济的重要性,通过编制2002、2007和2012年中国社会核算矩阵,进行乘数分解和结构化路径分析的结果表明:房地产业对行业总产出、劳动力和资本报酬、居民和企业收入的拉动作用极低。房地产业主要对金融业、租赁和商务服务业、建筑业以及金属冶炼与压延加工业四个行业的产出影响比较显著,对前三个行业主要是直接的一步式影响,与房地产业紧密相关的产业链条并不长。房地产业对要素报酬和机构收入的拉动总效应极小,且主要是开环效应,与此同时,房地产业主要通过自身和金融业影响要素报酬进而影响机构收入,特别是对资本报酬和企业收入的影响简单、直接,高度依赖这两条基础路径。土地出让金和房地产有关税收已成为地方政府的主要收入来源。房地产开发和运营商、金融机构和地方政府已成为房地产业发展过程中最主要的利益相关方。