心理契约对目标绩效的影响研究:以工作满意为中介变量

构建了施工项目团队成员心理契约对目标绩效影响的结构模型,用交易型、关系型、管理型心理契约来衡量施工项目团队成员心理契约,用任务绩效、关系绩效来衡量目标绩效,把工作满意作为中介变量,运用结构方程模型的方法,分析结果表明:施工项目团队成员心理契约由交易型、关系型和管理型心理契约构成;工作满意对施工项目团队成员心理契约(交易型、关系型、管理型)满足程度与施工项目关系绩效的关系具有完全中介作用等结论。     

商业模式对企业绩效的影响机理与实证研究——基于商业生态系统视角

以商业生态系统为研究视角,利用结构方程模型对企业商业模式与企业绩效之间的关系进行实证分析.主要结论有:企业商业模式的中间影响者、直接影响者和直接驱动者对企业绩效有显著影响,但商业模式的稳定影响者对企业的财务绩效影响不明显,对企业的市场绩效有显著影响.此外,企业的市场绩效对企业的财务绩效有显著的正向影响.研究结果表明:要实现企业业务价值,提升企业绩效,一是要强化商业模式各要素之间的联系,二是要增强稳定影响者匹配性,三是要关注直接影响者,夯实竞争基础.     

汽车制造业上市公司资本结构与财务绩效关系研究

探讨了我国汽车制造业上市公司资本结构对财务绩效的影响.对汽车制造业上市公司资本结构与财务绩效相关数据进行了描述性统计分析,对资本结构和财务绩效综合因子之间的关系进行了因子分析和回归分析.结果表明:汽车制造业上市公司资产负债率与财务绩效不显著负相关,流动负债率与财务绩效显著负相关,股权集中度与财务绩效不显著正相关.并针对性地提出了对策:合理降低资产负债率和流动负债率、适度提高股权集中度、发展多元融资.     

基于产权性质分析的碳绩效对财务绩效的影响研究

本文以2006年至2016年沪深两市的A股制造业上市公司为样本,通过行业碳排放量估算公司碳绩效,分析碳绩效对财务绩效的影响。研究发现:(1)国内的碳信息披露水平仍然很低,自愿披露企业不多且企业之间碳排放量披露标准不一致;(2)企业提高碳绩效水平有利于增加财务绩效,企业承担减排责任能够优化自身形象、改善与利益相关者的关系;(3)不同产权性质的企业碳绩效对财务绩效的影响存在差异,非国有企业碳绩效的提升更能显著提高财务绩效;(4)碳绩效对财务绩效的影响具有持续增长性,企业积极节能减排能够帮助其实现短期、长期的财务效益;(5)碳绩效与财务绩效会互相影响。     

海岛旅游绩效评价及驱动因子研究--以中国12个海岛县(区)为例

海岛旅游绩效是衡量海岛旅游产业发展质量和效果的重要标准.基于中国12个海岛县2001-2016年的面板数据,构建海岛旅游绩效评价指标体系,采用旅游综合绩效指数模型和多元线性回归模型,分析海岛旅游绩效的影响因素,剖析海岛旅游绩效的驱动因子.研究结果表明:1)海岛旅游绩效具有明显的区域差异,普陀优势突出,长海和平潭弱势明显;2)海岛旅游经济发展水平和海岛生态环境质量是海岛旅游绩效的连续影响因素,腹地经济发展水平、海岛地区产业结构、海岛交通条件、海岛旅游服务水平、海岛科技信息水平等项要素在各时期分别起到显著的影响作用;3)诸多影响要素相互作用驱动海岛旅游绩效不断发展变化,形成海岛地区旅游绩效的综合驱动系统.     

组织学习动态能力与企业绩效之间关系的实证研究

论文将动态能力作为解释组织学习和企业绩效间关系的中介变量.采用结构方程方法建立了其关系模型,以制造业部分上市公司为例,通过问卷调查、信度效度分析、回归分析验证提出的假设,研究理论模型符合可接受的适合度检定水平.实证研究结果表明制造业企业组织学习对动态能力影响显著且动态能力对企业绩效影响显著,组织学习对企业绩效直接影响较弱,动态能力中介作用明显.     

中国物流业碳排放特征及其影响因素分析——基于LMDI分解技术

在对我国物流业碳排放特征进行分析的基础上,运用LMDI分解技术,建立中国物流业人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1991-2010年能源结构、能源效率、运输方式、物流发展、经济增长以及人口等6种因素对物流业人均碳排放的影响.分析表明:经济增长是拉动物流业碳排放增长最主要的动力,在研究期间呈指数增长的趋势.运输方式对碳排放增长也表现出明显的促进作用,能源结构和能源效率虽然表现出拉动作用,但效果微弱.而物流发展因素则对物流业人均碳排放量表现出明显的抑制作用.因此,应大力推进物流业科技水平的提高,进一步发挥物流发展因素对碳排放的抑制作用,同时,优化物流运输体系,形成以铁路为主体,水运和管道为支撑,公路和航空运输为辅的低碳化的综合运输体系.     

物流企业与制造企业协同发展研究——基于双方合作绩效分析

以物流企业服务能力对其与制造业合作绩效的角度为切入点,分析129家物流企业的问卷调查数据,通过调查其与制造企业的合作情况,构建出物流企业服务能力与制造业企业合作绩效关系模型,并利用结构方程模型对课题进行实证研究.结果表明:物流企业服务能力对双方的合作程度有正向影响,并以此影响双方的合作绩效,因此应增强物流企业服务能力,进一步促进物流业与制造业的协同发展.     

基于LMDI方法的广东省物流业碳排放影响因素分析

在对2005-2014年间广东省物流业碳排放进行测算的基础上,基于LMDI分解方法,对广东省物流业碳排放的影响因素进行分析,发现物流业的经济发展对碳排放增长的推动作用最显著,能源结构对碳排放的增长有一定的推动作用,但效果不明显,而能源效率对碳排放的增长呈现明显的抑制作用,从而得出要从优化能源结构、提高能源效率等方面来实现广东省物流业低碳发展的结论.     

基于风险调整资本收益率下的最优再保险策略

风险调整资本收益率是一个用来描述赚取收益所承担风险的重要指标,是衡量风险调整后的财务绩效的一个有效工具,在银行业中得到广泛采用。近年来,在保险公司的再保险业务中,也越来越多地采用风险调整资本收益率这一指标来衡量收益和风险。本文重新考虑了有再保险控制下的风险调整资本收益率,并得到:在一般再保险自留函数下,我们证明了分层再保险策略是最优再保险形式;进一步,我们获得了最优再保险分层水平及最优风险调整资本收益率;最后,我们也给出了算例及数值分析。     

行政垄断程度与行业效率相关性的SPSS分析

本文选择行政指标及垄断指标对39个工业行业的行政垄断程度进行测度;利用资本、劳动、技术等指标对工业行业效率定量分析;对行业的行政垄断程度与行业的效率之间的相关性探究,并得出结论两者之间呈倒U型关系;最后提出行业行政垄断管制的重点。     

Generating functions for the powers of Fibonacci sequences

Whether or not there is an interaction between two factors in their effects on a dependent variable is often a central question. This paper proposes a general mechanism by which an interaction may arise: (a) the two factors are the same thing — or, at least, have a dimension in common — in the sense that it is meaningful to add (or subtract) them; (b) the sum of them (or the difference between them) is what determines the dependent variable; and (c) the relation between the sum (or difference) and the dependent variable is nonlinear. For example, if several factors contribute to arousal in an additive manner, and the relationship of performance score to arousal is inverted-U, the factors will appear to interact in their joint effect on performance. Psychological, medical, and other scientists are likely to be unfamiliar with the (nonlinear) equations used to express this type of theory. Consequently, the task of promoting and interpreting such ideas will fall to the mathematician and statistician.     

信息不对称下制造商填塞分销渠道策略研究

由制造商和零售商构成的二级供应链,制造商管理者可能使用填塞分销渠道策略最大化自己的效用。本文研究在信息不对称的情形下,制造商填塞分销渠道决策对供应链绩效的影响。研究发现:随着修正财务报告的投资者增多,制造商的库存水平以及制造商管理者的效用都会降低;而随着制造商管理者对市场价值重视程度提高,制造商的利润降低,这表明填塞分销渠道对制造商的真实价值产生负面影响。同时,供应链的利润不仅与管理者填塞分销决策有关,还受到零售价格等外在因素的影响。进一步地,加强外部监管以及设计合理的激励制度,有助于减少管理者填塞分销渠道的行为。     

考虑长短期努力的过度自信代理人激励机制

以相对净收益为标准设计代理人薪酬契约,同时考虑代理人过度自信及长短期努力水平,并区分长短期努力的冲突性与非冲突性,分别建立非货币效用计量模型和代理人最优激励模型,探索各项因素对代理人努力水平及业绩分享比例的影响。研究发现如下几点主要结论:第一,垄断行业代理人努力水平远远低于竞争性行业,且行业垄断程度越高,代理人努力水平越低。第二,行业垄断盈余比例与业绩分享比例之间的关系受委托人与代理人过度自信程度影响,当代理人过度自信系数高于委托人时,行业垄断程度越高,业绩分享比例越大,反之结论相反。第三,代理人对有利状态过度自信程度越高,对不利状态过度自信程度越低,代理人努力水平与业绩分享比例越高;委托人对有利状态过度自信程度越高,对不利状态过度自信程度越低,代理人努力水平与业绩分享比例越低。第四,代理人努力水平与边际非货币收益正相关,与边际非货币成本呈负向变化关系。     

Human capital estimation in higher education

The concept of human capital (HC) could be defined, from an economical viewpoint, as a stock variable representing the capacity of an individual to produce a sustained flow of income due to its investment in (higher) education and work experience. This paper focuses on the empirical estimation of the graduates’ latent variable HC, composed of two principal dimensions, Educational HC and Work Experience HC, within a realistic structural model, allowing causal relationship among endogenous and exogenous indicators, taking into account possible effects of external covariates. New administrative archives and a novel methodological approach are used. The methodology is applied to estimate HC of graduates in several universities of the Milan area in the early stages of their working career. The empirical results confirm the structure of the Italian job market, where investment in HC through higher education plays only a marginal role for explaining the economic performance.     

The relationship between the efficiency of orthopedic wards and the socio-economic status of their patients

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the socio-economic status of patients on the efficiency of orthopedic wards in acute hospitals in Israel (20 hospitals), from the viewpoint of the regulator—Israel Ministry of Health. At the first stage, data envelopment analysis is used with two inputs, and three outputs, where one output is undesirable—“number of deaths”—which also reflects the quality of the health services. At the second stage, various nonparametric tests are utilized to test the relationship between the socio-economic status of patients and the efficiency. As by-product DEA provides benchmark analysis, which indicates the peers of each inefficient ward, and the I/O improvements are needed for achieving efficiency. Two versions of DEA were used: the output oriented version (variable returns to scale), and the non-oriented version (Additive). Further analysis provides comparison of the results with other simple efficiency measures. We also compare between the efficiency from the regulator viewpoint and the hospitals’ viewpoint.     

Forecasting model with asymmetric market response and its application to pricing of consumer package goods

This paper presents a dynamic forecasting model that accommodates asymmetric market responses to marketing mix variable—price promotion—by threshold models. As a threshold variable to generate a mechanism for different market responses, we use the counterpart to the concept of a price threshold applied to a representative consumer in a store. A Bayesian approach is taken for statistical modelling because of advantages that it offers over estimation and forecasting. The proposed model incorporates the lagged effects of a price variable. Thereby, myriad pricing strategies can be implemented in the time horizon. Their effectiveness can be evaluated using the predictive density. We intend to improve the forecasting performance over conventional linear time series models. Furthermore, we discuss efficient dynamic pricing in a store using strategic simulations under some scenarios suggested by an estimated structure of the models. Empirical studies illustrate the superior forecasting performance of our model against conventional linear models in terms of the root mean square error of the forecasts. Useful information for dynamic pricing is derived from its structural parameter estimates. This paper develops a dynamic forecasting model that accommodates asymmetric market responses to marketing mix variable—price promotion—by the threshold models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网约车新政下平台和乘客的Stackelberg博弈模型及策略研究

近年来,滴滴和优步等网约车平台的出现给城市居民出行带来了新的选择,然而随着新政的实施以及垄断巨头的酝酿诞生,网约车平台是否会降补贴提车价成为消费者最为关心的问题。文章构建网约车平台和乘客之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,分析了网约车平台的补贴和抽成策略对乘客是否选择网约车出行的决策行为以及网约车市场均衡的影响。理论研究和仿真结果表明:网约车平台合理的补贴力度和抽成力度可以有效规避行政监管成本增加和乘客资源流失的风险,提高双方的收益,实现社会的帕累托最优。     

Irregular Demand: Assessing a Rough and Ready Lot Size Formula

The performance of an approximate method for determining inventory replenishment quantities for the case of variable demand is examined using a method of exact analysis. Increasing and decreasing linear trends in demand are considered, the former yielding satisfactory—the latter questionable, performance.     

Problem structuring methods: theorizing the benefits of deconstructing sustainable development projects

Problem structuring methods or PSMs are widely applied across a range of variable but generally small-scale organizational contexts. However, it has been argued that they are seen and experienced less often in areas of wide ranging and highly complex human activity—specifically those relating to sustainability, environment, democracy and conflict (or SEDC). In an attempt to plan, track and influence human activity in SEDC contexts, the authors in this paper make the theoretical case for a PSM, derived from various existing approaches. They show how it could make a contribution in a specific practical context—within sustainable coastal development projects around the Mediterranean which have utilized systemic and prospective sustainability analysis or, as it is now known, Imagine. The latter is itself a PSM but one which is ‘bounded’ within the limits of the project to help deliver the required ‘deliverables’ set out in the project blueprint. The authors argue that sustainable development projects would benefit from a deconstruction of process by those engaged in the project and suggest one approach that could be taken—a breakout from a project-bounded PSM to an analysis that embraces the project itself. The paper begins with an introduction to the sustainable development context and literature and then goes on to illustrate the issues by grounding the debate within a set of projects facilitated by Blue Plan for Mediterranean coastal zones. The paper goes on to show how the analytical framework could be applied and what insights might be generated.