Conditional information criteria for selecting variables in linear mixed models

In this paper, we consider the problem of selecting the variables of the fixed effects in the linear mixed models where the random effects are present and the observation vectors have been obtained from many clusters. As the variable selection procedure, here we use the Akaike Information Criterion, AIC. In the context of the mixed linear models, two kinds of AIC have been proposed: marginal AIC and conditional AIC. In this paper, we derive three versions of conditional AIC depending upon different estimators of the regression coefficients and the random effects. Through the simulation studies, it is shown that the proposed conditional AIC’s are superior to the marginal and conditional AIC’s proposed in the literature in the sense of selecting the true model. Finally, the results are extended to the case when the random effects in all the clusters are of the same dimension but have a common unknown covariance matrix.     

Data analysis for accelerated life tests via Weibull-gamma frailty regression models

In this article, we study data analysis methods for accelerated life test (ALT) with blocking. Unlike the previous assumption of normal distribution for random block effects, we advocate the use of Weibull regression model with gamma random effects for making statistical inference of ALT data. To estimate the unknown parameters in the proposed model, maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation methods are provided. We illustrate the proposed methods using real data examples and simulation examples. Numerical results suggest that distribution of random effects has minimal impact on the estimation of fixed effects in the Weibull regression models. Furthermore, to demonstrate the advantage of our proposed model, we also provide methods to compare ALT plans and thus identify the optimal ALT plans.     

Propagation-Separation Approach for Local Likelihood Estimation

The paper presents a unified approach to local likelihood estimation for a broad class of nonparametric models, including e.g. the regression, density, Poisson and binary response model. The method extends the adaptive weights smoothing (AWS) procedure introduced in Polzehl and Spokoiny (2000) in context of image denoising. The main idea of the method is to describe a greatest possible local neighborhood of every design point X_i in which the local parametric assumption is justified by the data. The method is especially powerful for model functions having large homogeneous regions and sharp discontinuities. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated by numerical examples for density estimation and classification. We also establish some remarkable theoretical nonasymptotic results on properties of the new algorithm. This includes the ``propagation' property which particularly yields the root-n consistency of the resulting estimate in the homogeneous case. We also state an ``oracle' result which implies rate optimality of the estimate under usual smoothness conditions and a ``separation' result which explains the sensitivity of the method to structural changes.     

Conditional and unconditional methods for selecting variables in linear mixed models

In the problem of selecting the explanatory variables in the linear mixed model, we address the derivation of the (unconditional or marginal) Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the conditional AIC (cAIC). The covariance matrices of the random effects and the error terms include unknown parameters like variance components, and the selection procedures proposed in the literature are limited to the cases where the parameters are known or partly unknown. In this paper, AIC and cAIC are extended to the situation where the parameters are completely unknown and they are estimated by the general consistent estimators including the maximum likelihood (ML), the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and other unbiased estimators. We derive, related to AIC and cAIC, the marginal and the conditional prediction error criteria which select superior models in light of minimizing the prediction errors relative to quadratic loss functions. Finally, numerical performances of the proposed selection procedures are investigated through simulation studies.     

A bivariate interval censorship model for partnership formation

We consider a statistical problem of estimating a bivariate age distribution of newly formed partnership. The study is motivated by a type of data that consist of uncensored, right-censored, left-censored, interval-censored and missing observations in the coordinates of a bivariate random vector. A model is proposed for formulating such type of data. A feasible algorithm to estimate the generalized MLE (GMLE) of the bivariate distribution function is also proposed. We establish asymptotic properties for the GMLE under a discrete assumption on the underlying distributions and apply the method to the data set.     

Conditional independence models for seemingly unrelated regressions with incomplete data

We consider normal ≡ Gaussian seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) with incomplete data (ID). Imposing a natural minimal set of conditional independence constraints, we find a restricted SUR/ID model whose likelihood function and parameter space factor into the product of the likelihood functions and the parameter spaces of standard complete data multivariate analysis of variance models. Hence, the restricted model has a unimodal likelihood and permits explicit likelihood inference. In the development of our methodology, we review and extend existing results for complete data SUR models and the multivariate ID problem.     

Nonparametric likelihood ratio goodness-of-fit tests for survival data

Berk and Jones (Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 47 (1979) 47) described a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity that is more efficient, in Bahadur's sense, than any weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at any alternative. This article shows how to obtain a nonparametric likelihood test of a general parametric family for incomplete survival data. A nonparametric likelihood ratio test process is employed to measure the discrepancy between a parametric family and the observed data. Large sample properties of the likelihood ratio test process are studied under both the null and alternative hypotheses. A Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to estimate its null distribution. We show how to produce a likelihood ratio graphical check as well as a formal test of a parametric family based on the developed theory. Our method is developed for the right-censorship model, but can be easily extended to some other survival models. Illustrations are given using both real and simulated data.     

Nonparametric tests for conditional independence in two-way contingency tables

Testing for the independence between two categorical variables R and S forming a contingency table is a well-known problem: the classical chi-square and likelihood ratio tests are used. Suppose now that for each individual a set of p characteristics is also observed. Those explanatory variables, likely to be associated with R and S, can play a major role in their possible association, and it can therefore be interesting to test the independence between R and S conditionally on them. In this paper, we propose two nonparametric tests which generalise the chi-square and the likelihood ratio ideas to this case. The procedure is based on a kernel estimator of the conditional probabilities. The asymptotic law of the proposed test statistics under the conditional independence hypothesis is derived; the finite sample behaviour of the procedure is analysed through some Monte Carlo experiments and the approach is illustrated with a real data example.     

Bayesian reference analysis for Gaussian Markov random fields

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF) are important families of distributions for the modeling of spatial data and have been extensively used in different areas of spatial statistics such as disease mapping, image analysis and remote sensing. GMRFs have been used for the modeling of spatial data, both as models for the sampling distribution of the observed data and as models for the prior of latent processes/random effects; we consider mainly the former use of GMRFs. We study a large class of GMRF models that includes several models previously proposed in the literature. An objective Bayesian analysis is presented for the parameters of the above class of GMRFs, where explicit expressions for the Jeffreys (two versions) and reference priors are derived, and for each of these priors results on posterior propriety of the model parameters are established. We describe a simple MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the model parameters, and study frequentist properties of the Bayesian inferences resulting from the use of these automatic priors. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed GMRF model and reference prior for studying the spatial variability of lip cancer cases in the districts of Scotland over the period 1975-1980.     

Selecting mixed-effects models based on a generalized information criterion

The generalized information criterion (GIC) proposed by Rao and Wu [A strongly consistent procedure for model selection in a regression problem, Biometrika 76 (1989) 369-374] is a generalization of Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). In this paper, we extend the GIC to select linear mixed-effects models that are widely applied in analyzing longitudinal data. The procedure for selecting fixed effects and random effects based on the extended GIC is provided. The asymptotic behavior of the extended GIC method for selecting fixed effects is studied. We prove that, under mild conditions, the selection procedure is asymptotically loss efficient regardless of the existence of a true model and consistent if a true model exists. A simulation study is carried out to empirically evaluate the performance of the extended GIC procedure. The results from the simulation show that if the signal-to-noise ratio is moderate or high, the percentages of choosing the correct fixed effects by the GIC procedure are close to one for finite samples, while the procedure performs relatively poorly when it is used to select random effects.     

An adjusted maximum likelihood method for solving small area estimation problems

For the well-known Fay-Herriot small area model, standard variance component estimation methods frequently produce zero estimates of the strictly positive model variance. As a consequence, an empirical best linear unbiased predictor of a small area mean, commonly used in small area estimation, could reduce to a simple regression estimator, which typically has an overshrinking problem. We propose an adjusted maximum likelihood estimator of the model variance that maximizes an adjusted likelihood defined as a product of the model variance and a standard likelihood (e.g., a profile or residual likelihood) function. The adjustment factor was suggested earlier by Carl Morris in the context of approximating a hierarchical Bayes solution where the hyperparameters, including the model variance, are assumed to follow a prior distribution. Interestingly, the proposed adjustment does not affect the mean squared error property of the model variance estimator or the corresponding empirical best linear unbiased predictors of the small area means in a higher order asymptotic sense. However, as demonstrated in our simulation study, the proposed adjustment has a considerable advantage in small sample inference, especially in estimating the shrinkage parameters and in constructing the parametric bootstrap prediction intervals of the small area means, which require the use of a strictly positive consistent model variance estimate.     

Multiple imputations and the missing censoring indicator model

Semiparametric random censorship (SRC) models (Dikta, 1998) provide an attractive framework for estimating survival functions when censoring indicators are fully or partially available. When there are missing censoring indicators (MCIs), the SRC approach employs a model-based estimate of the conditional expectation of the censoring indicator given the observed time, where the model parameters are estimated using only the complete cases. The multiple imputations approach, on the other hand, utilizes this model-based estimate to impute the missing censoring indicators and form several completed data sets. The Kaplan-Meier and SRC estimators based on the several completed data sets are averaged to arrive at the multiple imputations Kaplan-Meier (MIKM) and the multiple imputations SRC (MISRC) estimators. While the MIKM estimator is asymptotically as efficient as or less efficient than the standard SRC-based estimator that involves no imputations, here we investigate the performance of the MISRC estimator and prove that it attains the benchmark variance set by the SRC-based estimator. We also present numerical results comparing the performances of the estimators under several misspecified models for the above mentioned conditional expectation.     

Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data

This article studies the maximum likelihood inference on a class of Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data. Degradation data are special case of functional data with monotone trend. The setting for degradation data is one on which n independent subjects, each with a Wiener process with random drift and diffusion parameters, are observed at possible different times. Unit-to-unit variability is incorporated into the model by these random effects. EM algorithm is used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters. Asymptotic properties such as consistency and convergence rate are established. Bootstrap method is used for assessing the uncertainties of the estimators. Simulations are used to validate the method. The model is fitted to bridge beam data and corresponding goodness-of-fit tests are carried out. Failure time distributions in terms of degradation level passages are calculated and illustrated.     

Estimation and confidence bands of a conditional survival function with censoring indicators missing at random

The nonparametric estimator of the conditional survival function proposed by Beran is a useful tool to evaluate the effects of covariates in the presence of random right censoring. However, censoring indicators of right censored data may be missing for different reasons in many applications. We propose some estimators of the conditional cumulative hazard and survival functions which allow to handle this situation. We also construct the likelihood ratio confidence bands for them and obtain their asymptotic properties. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the performances of the estimators and their confidence bands.     

Grouped Dirichlet distribution: A new tool for incomplete categorical data analysis

Motivated by the likelihood functions of several incomplete categorical data, this article introduces a new family of distributions, grouped Dirichlet distributions (GDD), which includes the classical Dirichlet distribution (DD) as a special case. First, we develop distribution theory for the GDD in its own right. Second, we use this expanded family as a new tool for statistical analysis of incomplete categorical data. Starting with a GDD with two partitions, we derive its stochastic representation that provides a simple procedure for simulation. Other properties such as mixed moments, mode, marginal and conditional distributions are also derived. The general GDD with more than two partitions is considered in a parallel manner. Three data sets from a case-control study, a leprosy survey, and a neurological study are used to illustrate how the GDD can be used as a new tool for analyzing incomplete categorical data. Our approach based on GDD has at least two advantages over the commonly used approach based on the DD in both frequentist and conjugate Bayesian inference: (a) in some cases, both the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates have closed-form expressions in the new approach, but not so when they are based on the commonly-used approach; and (b) even if a closed-form solution is not available, the EM and data augmentation algorithms in the new approach converge much faster than in the commonly-used approach.     

缺失数据均值推断的经验似然方法

研究了缺失数据的均值推断问题.在随机缺失及半参数模型的假设下,设计了基于影响函数理论的经验似然推断方法,证明了所构造的对数经验似然比检验统计量具有非参数Wilks性质.此外,该经验似然方法可以利用辅助协变量中提供的附加信息来提高检验的功效.在近邻备择假设下,计算了检验统计量的功效,并且通过一些模拟考察了该方法在有限样本下的表现.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for all-pass time series models

An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models generate uncorrelated (white noise) time series, but these series are not independent in the non-Gaussian case. An approximate likelihood for a causal all-pass model is given and used to establish asymptotic normality for maximum likelihood estimators under general conditions. Behavior of the estimators for finite samples is studied via simulation. A two-step procedure using all-pass models to identify and estimate noninvertible autoregressive-moving average models is developed and used in the deconvolution of a simulated water gun seismogram.     

Local likelihood estimation for nonstationary random fields

We develop a weighted local likelihood estimate for the parameters that govern the local spatial dependency of a locally stationary random field. The advantage of this local likelihood estimate is that it smoothly downweights the influence of faraway observations, works for irregular sampling locations, and when designed appropriately, can trade bias and variance for reducing estimation error. This paper starts with an exposition of our technique on the problem of estimating an unknown positive function when multiplied by a stationary random field. This example gives concrete evidence of the benefits of our local likelihood as compared to unweighted local likelihoods. We then discuss the difficult problem of estimating a bandwidth parameter that controls the amount of influence from distant observations. Finally we present a simulation experiment for estimating the local smoothness of a local Matérn random field when observing the field at random sampling locations in [0,1]². The local Matérn is a fully nonstationary random field, has a closed form covariance, can attain any degree of differentiability or Hölder smoothness and behaves locally like a stationary Matérn. We include an appendix that proves the positive definiteness of this covariance function.     

缺失数据均值推断的经验似然方法

研究了缺失数据的均值推断问题.在随机缺失及半参数模型的假设下,设计了基于影响函数理论的经验似然推断方法,证明了所构造的对数经验似然比检验统计量具有非参数Wilks性质.此外,该经验似然方法可以利用辅助协变量中提供的附加信息来提高检验的功效.在近邻备择假设下,计算了检验统计量的功效,并且通过一些模拟考察了该方法在有限样本下的表现.     

Likelihood-based kernel estimation in semiparametric errors-in-covariables models with validation data

We present methods to handle error-in-variables models. Kernel-based likelihood score estimating equation methods are developed for estimating conditional density parameters. In particular, a semiparametric likelihood method is proposed for sufficiently using the information in the data. The asymptotic distribution theory is derived. Small sample simulations and a real data set are used to illustrate the proposed estimation methods.