Linear relations in time series models. II

In this paper an asymptotic theory is developed for a new time series model which was introduced in a previous paper [5]. An algorithm for computing estimates of the parameters of this time series model is given, and it is shown that these estimators are asymptotically efficient in the sense that they have the same asymptotic distribution as the maximum likelihood estimators.     

Estimating common vector parameters in interlaboratory studies

The primary goal of this work is to extend two methods of random effects models to multiparameter situation. These methods comprise the DerSimonian-Laird estimator, stemming from meta-analysis, and the Mandel-Paule algorithm widely used in interlaboratory studies. The maximum likelihood estimators are also discussed. Two methods of assessing the uncertainty of these estimators are given.     

Asymptotic optimal inference for multivariate branching-Markov processes via martingale estimating functions and mixed normality

Multivariate tree-indexed Markov processes are discussed with applications. A Galton-Watson super-critical branching process is used to model the random tree-indexed process. Martingale estimating functions are used as a basic framework to discuss asymptotic properties and optimality of estimators and tests. The limit distributions of the estimators turn out to be mixtures of normals rather than normal. Also, the non-null limit distributions of standard test statistics such as Wald, Rao’s score, and likelihood ratio statistics are shown to have mixtures of non-central chi-square distributions. The models discussed in this paper belong to the local asymptotic mixed normal family. Consequently, non-standard limit results are obtained.     

Asymptotic properties of computationally efficient alternative estimators for a class of multivariate normal models

Parameters of Gaussian multivariate models are often estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. In spite of its merits, this methodology is not practical when the sample size is very large, as, for example, in the case of massive georeferenced data sets. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of the estimators that minimize three alternatives to the likelihood function, designed to increase the computational efficiency. This is achieved by applying the information sandwich technique to expansions of the pseudo-likelihood functions as quadratic forms of independent normal random variables. Theoretical calculations are given for a first-order autoregressive time series and then extended to a two-dimensional autoregressive process on a lattice. We compare the efficiency of the three estimators to that of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as among themselves, using numerical calculations of the theoretical results and simulations.     

Empirical likelihood for semiparametric regression model with missing response data

A bias-corrected technique for constructing the empirical likelihood ratio is used to study a semiparametric regression model with missing response data. We are interested in inference for the regression coefficients, the baseline function and the response mean. A class of empirical likelihood ratio functions for the parameters of interest is defined so that undersmoothing for estimating the baseline function is avoided. The existing data-driven algorithm is also valid for selecting an optimal bandwidth. Our approach is to directly calibrate the empirical log-likelihood ratio so that the resulting ratio is asymptotically chi-squared. Also, a class of estimators for the parameters of interest is constructed, their asymptotic distributions are obtained, and consistent estimators of asymptotic bias and variance are provided. Our results can be used to construct confidence intervals and bands for the parameters of interest. A simulation study is undertaken to compare the empirical likelihood with the normal approximation-based method in terms of coverage accuracies and average lengths of confidence intervals. An example for an AIDS clinical trial data set is used for illustrating our methods.     

On the comparison of the pre-test and shrinkage phi-divergence test estimators for the symmetry model of categorical data

The estimation problem of the parameters in a symmetry model for categorical data has been considered for many authors in the statistical literature (for example, Bowker (1948) [1], Ireland et al. (1969) [2], Quade and Salama (1975) [3], Cressie and Read (1988) [4], Menéndez et al. (2005) [5]) without using uncertain prior information. It is well known that many new and interesting estimators, using uncertain prior information, have been studied by a host of researchers in different statistical models, and many papers have been published on this topic (see Saleh (2006) [9] and references therein). In this paper, we consider the symmetry model of categorical data and we study, for the first time, some new estimators when non-sample information about the symmetry of the probabilities is considered. The decision to use a “restricted” estimator or an “unrestricted” estimator is based on the outcome of a preliminary test, and then a shrinkage technique is used. It is interesting to note that we present a unified study in the sense that we consider not only the maximum likelihood estimator and likelihood ratio test or chi-square test statistic but we consider minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics. Families of minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics are wide classes of estimators and test statistics that contain as a particular case the maximum likelihood estimator, likelihood ratio test and chi-square test statistic. In an asymptotic set-up, the biases and the risk under the squared loss function for the proposed estimators are derived and compared. A numerical example clarifies the content of the paper.     

Semi-parametric estimation of partially linear single-index models

One of the most difficult problems in applications of semi-parametric partially linear single-index models (PLSIM) is the choice of pilot estimators and complexity parameters which may result in radically different estimators. Pilot estimators are often assumed to be root-n consistent, although they are not given in a constructible way. Complexity parameters, such as a smoothing bandwidth are constrained to a certain speed, which is rarely determinable in practical situations.In this paper, efficient, constructible and practicable estimators of PLSIMs are designed with applications to time series. The proposed technique answers two questions from Carroll et al. [Generalized partially linear single-index models, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 92 (1997) 477-489]: no root-n pilot estimator for the single-index part of the model is needed and complexity parameters can be selected at the optimal smoothing rate. The asymptotic distribution is derived and the corresponding algorithm is easily implemented. Examples from real data sets (credit-scoring and environmental statistics) illustrate the technique and the proposed methodology of minimum average variance estimation (MAVE).     

Conditional and unconditional methods for selecting variables in linear mixed models

In the problem of selecting the explanatory variables in the linear mixed model, we address the derivation of the (unconditional or marginal) Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the conditional AIC (cAIC). The covariance matrices of the random effects and the error terms include unknown parameters like variance components, and the selection procedures proposed in the literature are limited to the cases where the parameters are known or partly unknown. In this paper, AIC and cAIC are extended to the situation where the parameters are completely unknown and they are estimated by the general consistent estimators including the maximum likelihood (ML), the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and other unbiased estimators. We derive, related to AIC and cAIC, the marginal and the conditional prediction error criteria which select superior models in light of minimizing the prediction errors relative to quadratic loss functions. Finally, numerical performances of the proposed selection procedures are investigated through simulation studies.     

Statistical inference using a weighted difference-based series approach for partially linear regression models

Partially linear regression models with fixed effects are useful tools for making econometric analyses and normalizing microarray data. Baltagi and Li (2002) [7] proposed a computation friendly difference-based series estimation (DSE) for them. We show that the DSE is not asymptotically efficient in most cases and further propose a weighted difference-based series estimation (WDSE). The weights in it do not involve any unknown parameters. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established for both balanced and unbalanced cases, and it is shown that they achieve a semiparametric efficient boundary. Additionally, we propose a variable selection procedure for identifying significant covariates in the parametric part of the semiparametric fixed-effects regression model. The method is based on a combination of the nonconcave penalization (Fan and Li, 2001 [13]) and weighted difference-based series estimation techniques. The resulting estimators have the oracle property; that is, they can correctly identify the true model as if the true model (the subset of variables with nonvanishing coefficients) were known in advance. Simulation studies are conducted and an application is given to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures.     

Robust Gaussian graphical modeling

A new Gaussian graphical modeling that is robustified against possible outliers is proposed. The likelihood function is weighted according to how the observation is deviated, where the deviation of the observation is measured based on its likelihood. Test statistics associated with the robustified estimators are developed. These include statistics for goodness of fit of a model. An outlying score, similar to but more robust than the Mahalanobis distance, is also proposed. The new scores make it easier to identify outlying observations. A Monte Carlo simulation and an analysis of a real data set show that the proposed method works better than ordinary Gaussian graphical modeling and some other robustified multivariate estimators.     

Approximating posterior probabilities in a linear model with possibly noninvertible moving average errors

The method of Laplace is used to approximate posterior probabilities for a collection of polynomial regression models when the errors follow a process with a noninvertible moving average component. These results are useful in the problem of period-change analysis of variable stars and in assessing the posterior probability that a time series with trend has been overdifferenced. The nonstandard covariance structure induced by a noninvertible moving average process can invalidate the standard Laplace method. A number of analytical tools is used to produce corrected Laplace approximations. These tools include viewing the covariance matrix of the observations as tending to a differential operator. The use of such an operator and its Green's function provides a convenient and systematic method of asymptotically inverting the covariance matrix.In certain cases there are two different Laplace approximations, and the appropriate one to use depends upon unknown parameters. This problem is dealt with by using a weighted geometric mean of the candidate approximations, where the weights are completely data-based and such that, asymptotically, the correct approximation is used. The new methodology is applied to an analysis of the prototypical long-period variable star known as Mira.     

Log-linear Poisson autoregression

We consider a log-linear model for time series of counts. This type of model provides a framework where both negative and positive association can be taken into account. In addition time dependent covariates are accommodated in a straightforward way. We study its probabilistic properties and maximum likelihood estimation. It is shown that a perturbed version of the process is geometrically ergodic, and, under some conditions, it approaches the non-perturbed version. In addition, it is proved that the maximum likelihood estimator of the vector of unknown parameters is asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that can be consistently estimated. The results are based on minimal assumptions and can be extended to the case of log-linear regression with continuous exogenous variables. The theory is applied to aggregated financial transaction time series. In particular, we discover positive association between the number of transactions and the volatility process of a certain stock.     

Improving on the maximum likelihood estimators of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models

In this article we study the simultaneous estimation of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models. We derive some classes of estimators which improve on the maximum likelihood estimator under the normalized squared losses. Our estimators are based on the argument in Chou [Simultaneous estimation in discrete multivariate exponential families, Ann. Statist. 19 (1991) 314-328.] and shrink the maximum likelihood estimator depending on the marginal frequencies of variables forming a complete subgraph of the conditional independence graph.     

Analysis of variance and linear contrasts in experimental design with generalized secant hyperbolic distribution

We consider one-way classification model in experimental design when the errors have generalized secant hyperbolic distribution. We obtain efficient and robust estimators for block effects by using the modified maximum likelihood estimation (MML) methodology. A test statistic analogous to the normal-theory F statistic is defined to test block effects. We also define a test statistic for testing linear contrasts. It is shown that test statistics based on MML estimators are efficient and robust. The methodology readily extends to unbalanced designs.     

Nonparametric additive model-assisted estimation for survey data

An additive model-assisted nonparametric method is investigated to estimate the finite population totals of massive survey data with the aid of auxiliary information. A class of estimators is proposed to improve the precision of the well known Horvitz-Thompson estimators by combining the spline and local polynomial smoothing methods. These estimators are calibrated, asymptotically design-unbiased, consistent, normal and robust in the sense of asymptotically attaining the Godambe-Joshi lower bound to the anticipated variance. A consistent model selection procedure is further developed to select the significant auxiliary variables. The proposed method is sufficiently fast to analyze large survey data of high dimension within seconds. The performance of the proposed method is assessed empirically via simulation studies.     

Efficiencies of tests and estimators forp-order autoregressive processes when the error distribution is nonnormal

Summary We considerpth order autoregressive time series where the shocks need not be normal. By employing the concept of contiguity, we obtain the sysmptotic power for tests of hypothesis concerning the autoregressive parameters. Our approach allows consideration of the double exponential and other thicker-tailed distributions for the shocks. We derive a new result in the contiguity framework that leads directly to an expression for the Pitman efficiencies of tests as well as estimators. The numerical values of the efficiencies suggest a lack of robustness for the normal theory least squares estimators when the shock distribution is thick tailed or an outlier prone mixed normal. An important alternative test statistic is proposed that competes with the normal theory tests. This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research under Grant No. N00014-78-C-0722 and by the Army Research Office.     

High breakdown mixture discriminant analysis

Robust S-estimation is proposed for multivariate Gaussian mixture models generalizing the work of Hastie and Tibshirani (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 58 (1996) 155). In the case of Gaussian Mixture models, the unknown location and scale parameters are estimated by the EM algorithm. In the presence of outliers, the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters are affected, resulting in the misclassification of the observations. The robust S-estimators of the unknown parameters replace the non-robust estimators from M-step of the EM algorithm. The results were compared with the standard mixture discriminant analysis approach using the probability of misclassification criterion. This comparison showed a slight reduction in the average probability of misclassification using robust S-estimators as compared to the standard maximum likelihood estimators.     

Generalized partially linear models with missing covariates

In this article we study a semiparametric generalized partially linear model when the covariates are missing at random. We propose combining local linear regression with the local quasilikelihood technique and weighted estimating equation to estimate the parameters and nonparameters when the missing probability is known or unknown. We establish normality of the estimators of the parameter and asymptotic expansion for the estimators of the nonparametric part. We apply the proposed models and methods to a study of the relation between virologic and immunologic responses in AIDS clinical trials, in which virologic response is classified into binary variables. We also give simulation results to illustrate our approach.     

Statistical inference of minimum BD estimators and classifiers for varying-dimensional models

Stochastic modeling for large-scale datasets usually involves a varying-dimensional model space. This paper investigates the asymptotic properties, when the number of parameters grows with the available sample size, of the minimum- estimators and classifiers under a broad and important class of Bregman divergence (), which encompasses nearly all of the commonly used loss functions in the regression analysis, classification procedures and machine learning literature. Unlike the maximum likelihood estimators which require the joint likelihood of observations, the minimum-BD estimators are useful for a range of models where the joint likelihood is unavailable or incomplete. Statistical inference tools developed for the class of large dimensional minimum- estimators and related classifiers are evaluated via simulation studies, and are illustrated by analysis of a real dataset.