Evaluating IT/IS investments: A fuzzy multi-criteria decision model approach

IT/IS represents a substantial financial investment for many organizations. Whether or not to invest in new IT/IS is, therefore, a difficult decision. Simply considering human resource cost saving criteria is not enough, especially when a corporation has had many information systems. What kind of criteria should we consider when we evaluate IT/IS? How can a new IT/IS project be evaluated in an easy, cost-effective, and collective manner? We need a tool that will help decision-makers evaluate potential new investment projects. Apart from evaluating the new project per se, its compatibility and ability to integrate with an existing IT portfolio must also be considered. Hence, we propose a new approach based on the fuzzy multi-criteria decision model (FMCDM), featuring a 2-stage evaluation process with 26 criteria for IT/IS investment. All stakeholders in a corporation can decide the relative weights they give to the criteria when they evaluate a new IT/IS project by using linguistic values. Experts can also use linguistic values to evaluate all candidates easily. Only an Excel worksheet is needed to obtain an evaluation result. It is cost-effective and efficient. We conduct a case study to show how this model can be used and discuss the results.     

Valuing interdependent multi-stage IT investments: A real options approach

In this paper, we use the market asset disclaimer assumption and develop a binomial lattice based real options model to include cash flow interdependencies between multi-stage information technology (IT) investments. Using a simple two-stage IT investment problem with interdependent cash flows, we apply the binomial lattice based real options model to obtain combined valuation of the two-stage IT investment. In addition to investment valuation, our experience with the two-stage IT investment valuation suggests that the binomial lattice based real options model provides a powerful decision aid tool for appropriate timing, delaying and abandoning of the second-stage IT investment.     

合作竞争条件下R&D项目投资决策分析

R&D项目的成功会为高新技术企业带来巨大收益,但是其研发过程中存在着技术风险、商业风险和突发风险等所带来的多种不确定性。为了应对这些不确定性,一些高新技术企业往往结成追求联盟整体利益最大化的成本共享联盟来进行R&D项目投资,然而由于不进行技术共享并争夺研发成功后的收益,联盟中的企业又会在合作的同时进行竞争,这就需要企业对R&D项目的估值非常的精确,以便在合作竞争条件下做出收益最大的最优投资决策。市场中两个合作竞争的高新技术企业各自拥有四种投资决策:成为市场先行者或跟随者,立刻与另一企业共同投资,与另一企业共同选择先等待时机再进行投资。本文以这两个高新技术企业为例,利用欧式期权理论量化了多种不确定性,建立相应的R&D项目投资决策数学模型,对R&D项目的投资时机和决策收益进行评估。当成本共享联盟整体收益最大时,得到的两个高新技术企业做出的投资决策即为在合作竞争条件下R&D项目投资中各自的最优投资决策,最后通过Shapley值的计算可对联盟中企业各自的收益进行合理分配。     

考虑IT基础设施作用的外部知识对企业流程创新影响的博弈模型

本文基于知识基础观理论和吸收能力理论,以两个异质性制造企业组成的寡头竞争市场为研究对象,参考经典研发竞争AJ模型和非对称研发模型,建立考虑IT基础设施作用的外部知识对企业流程创新影响的博弈模型。研究表明,对于异质性企业来说,成本和IT基础设施投入占优的企业通过流程创新将拥有更大的市场份额,且企业通过合作创新方式引入的外部知识量也随着初始生产成本差异和IT基础设施投入的变化而改变,总体来说,企业异质性是企业流程创新竞争不平衡性的重要原因。考虑IT基础设施作用的情况下,企业引入外部知识进行流程创新对均衡产量具有正向影响,对均衡利润的影响存在阈值,呈现先增加后降低的趋势。由于溢出效应的存在,两个企业的均衡利润随领先企业的IT基础设施投入的增加而增加,但领先企业的均衡利润随IT基础设施投入的增加幅度更大,且领先企业的均衡利润占优。本文进一步提出了加强IT基础设施建设,促进外部知识利用,提升企业流程创新能力的管理启示。     

Information Technology Evaluation: Is It Different?

All investment decisions are problematic. The IT community seems to shy away from evaluation of its investments. This paper examines information technology investment in order to assess if it is radically different from other investment decisions. The lack of formal evaluation of IT projects may be due, not to a deficiency in the tools available to the evaluator, but to other factors. These factors are appraised and possible ways forward considered.     

Financial risk of project's cost

In this paper we will examine the effects of uncertainty of investment costs on the expected gain and budget allocation of a decision-maker. These effects are studied using the relationship between riskiness and stochastic dominance. Results and examples are provided for the case of budgeting one project. Furthermore, the problem of centralized vs. non-centralized budget allocation forn identically independent distributed projects is discussed.     

基于资金现值约束的双目标项目组合选择模型研究

近年来,项目组合选择问题已引起人们越来越多的关注,如何从众多项目中选择合适项目以满足企业长期发展战略已成为企业面临的重要问题。因此,本文在考虑项目可打断的基础上构建了一个净现值和效用并存的双目标项目组合选择模型,同时把模型中的资金约束转变为资金现值约束,并通过理论给予证明,使模型得以简化。最后,通过实际算例进行分析。结果表明:基于双目标的项目组合选择模型比单一目标更加符合企业长期发展战略,该模型也为投资决策者进行项目组合选择提供了较完善的理论依据。     

Technology choice under several uncertainty sources

We analyze a model of irreversible investment with two sources of uncertainty. A risk-neutral decision maker has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects under input price and output price uncertainty. We propose a complete study of the shape of the rational investment region and we prove that it is never optimal to invest when the alternative investments generate the same payoff independently of its size. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. As an illustration, we apply our methodology to power generation under uncertainty.     

石油公司投资组合优化模型研究

项目选择与资金优化配置是石油公司经常要解决的实际问题 ,科学地、规范地解决这一问题 ,对提高资金利用率 ,促进石油行业的健康发展具有重大意义 .本文结合石油公司项目特点 ,运用投资组合理论建立了石油项目选择与资金优化配置模型 ,并研究了相应求解方法     

企业自主研发与合作创新的风险测度及组合优化

企业在整合内部创新要素进行自主研发的同时,也会寻求外部创新资源进行合作创新,当前同时从事多个R&D项目已成为常见的企业经营活动,如何在不确定条件下分析多个R&D项目投资的策略选择及风险优化,对于企业的长期发展具有重要意义。根据企业是否采取合作创新策略,可将其R&D项目分为自主研发与合作创新两类,以项目的研发成功率和投资收益率代表技术风险和市场风险,分别测度自主研发与合作创新项目的风险特性,并在此基础上构建企业R&D项目投资组合优化模型,以在自主研发与合作创新项目之间进行权衡取舍。结果表明,企业对于自主研发与合作创新项目投资组合的最优投资权重,主要取决于这两类组合的期望收益率、收益率方差、期望成功率以及两组合之间的协方差。企业可基于关键参数制定出最优的R&D项目投资组合选择策略,合理分配资金以达到风险最小化的投资目标。     

A mean-risk index model for uncertain capital budgeting

This paper discusses the capital budgeting problem of projects using annual cash inflows, cash outflows and initial investment outlays given by experts’ evaluations when no historical data are available. Uncertain variables are used to describe the projects’ parameters. A profit risk index and a capital risk index are proposed, and a mean-risk index model is developed for optimal project selection. In addition, the deterministic forms of the model are given and a solution algorithm is provided. For the sake of illustration, a numerical example is also presented. The results of the example show that both profit risk index and capital risk index are important in investment risk control. However, when the profit risk control requirement is strong, the selected project portfolio may be insensitive to the capital risk constraint; when the profit risk control requirement is moderate, the capital risk constraint plays an important role. The results also show the tendency that when either the tolerable profit risk level or the tolerable capital risk level becomes higher, the obtained expected net present value of the project portfolio becomes larger, which is in agreement with the investment rule that the higher the risk, the higher the return.     

Valuation of project portfolios: An endogenously discounted method

Real options analysis (ROA) has been developed to value assets in which managerial flexibilities create significant value. The methodology is ideal for the valuation of projects in which frequent adjustments (e.g. investment deferral, project scope changes, etc) are necessary in response to the realization of market and technological uncertainties. However, ROA has no practical application when valuing portfolios of multiple concurrent projects sharing resources, as the size of the problem grows exponentially with the number of projects and the length of the time horizon. In this paper an extension of ROA suitable for the valuation of project portfolios with substantial technological uncertainty (e.g. R&D portfolios) is proposed. The method exploits the distributed decision making strategy encountered in most organizations to decompose the portfolio valuation problem into a decision-making sub-problem and a set of single project valuation sub-problems that can be sequentially solved. Discrete event simulation is used for the first sub-problem, while a tailored ROA based strategy is used for the set of valuation sub-problems. A case study from the pharmaceutical industry is used to compare the decision tree analysis (DTA) method and the proposed method.     

Operations management of new project development: innovation,efficient, effective aspects

The integration of distribution management systems (DMS) and feeder management systems (FMS) in China has become a trend in recent years, in addition to upgrading and rebuilding the existing energy management system and DMS. However, some management methods are different and contradictory, thus result in obstacles to innovation and effectiveness. Thus, firms still struggle to find effective process management that is associated with innovative project operations. In addition, there is no standard method to evaluate information technology (IT) projects, and at least 40% of IT projects realize no benefits. It is astonishing that none of the above-mentioned issues have been addressed or solved by previous literatures. In order to fill the vacancy, this paper first briefly introduces FMS and determines its critical success criteria, and then proposes suitable forms of organization for knowledge management. It also applies process management methods according to knowledge creation mode and maturity of the project. Finally, an analytic network process associated with benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks is constructed to compare the performance of different FMS projects with and without adopting the proposed methodology.     

Fixed versus flexible production systems: A real options analysis

In this work, we address investment decisions in production systems by using real options. As is standard in literature, the stochastic variable is assumed to be normally distributed and then approximated by a binomial distribution, resulting in a binomial lattice. The methodology establishes a discrete-valued lattice of possible future values of the underlying stochastic variable (demand in our case) and then, computes the project value. We have developed and implemented stochastic dynamic programming models both for fixed and flexible capacity systems. In the former case, we consider three standard options: the option to postpone investment, the option to abandon investment, and the option to temporarily shut-down production. For the latter case, we introduce the option of corrective action, in terms of production capacity, that the management can take during the project by considering the existence of one of the following: (i) a capacity expansion option; (ii) a capacity contraction option; or (iii) an option considering both expansion and contraction. The full flexible capacity model, where both the contraction and expansion options exist, leads, as expected, to a better project predicted value and thus, investment policy. However, we have also found that the capacity strategy obtained from the flexible capacity model, when applied to specific demand data series, often does not lead to a better investment decision. This might seem surprising, at first, but it can be explained by the inaccuracy of the binomial model. The binomial model tends to undervalue future decreases in the stochastic variable (demand), while at the same time tending to overvalue an increase in future demand values.     

工程项目投资方案评价方法的研究-基于广义λ-Shapley Choquet积分

随着社会的发展,工程项目投资方案选择所受的影响因素越来越多。方案的属性值呈现出不确定性、模糊性的特征。文章对工程项目投资方案的主要影响因素进行了系统全面的分析,构造出影响因素的指标体系(即属性集)。为应对不确定信息和降低决策者的决策难度,让决策者利用所构建的语言变量给出方案属性值的定性判断,然后利用所构建的语言变量和三角模糊数之间的对应关系,将其转化为相应的三角模糊数,从而得到相应的定量模糊判断。为得到最优的综合投资方案,同时考虑属性间的交互作用,文章利用非可加测度及广义λ-Shapley Choquet积分来计算投资方案的综合评价值,属性权重由广义Shapley函数确定。基于此,给出了工程项目投资方案选择的一个新评价方法。最后,通过一个实际案例分析来验证所给方法的可行性和有效性。     

Evaluating and modelling constructs for e-government decision making

It is now becoming increasingly well understood that the investment andevaluation of electronic government projects is determinant on a number oforganisational, policymaking and decision-making factors, which are determiningthe success or failure of such endeavours. Given the increasing interest in themanner and methods by which public sector projects are implemented as well asevaluated, this paper attempts to synergise contemporary e-government projectmanagement (PM) components and synthesise these with extant principles ofinformation systems evaluation. This is carried out in order to model andunderstand the underlying constructs and determinants of decision-making andoperational dynamics within an electronic government case study. The authorsseek to advance and apply the cognitive mapping technique of Fuzzy CognitiveMapping (FCM), through the use of an interpretivist, empirical enquiry techniquethat is melded with an exploratory simulation of the key factors involved ine-government PM issues. The FCM allows the identification of theinter-relationships within this context and provides a basis for identifyingthose constructs of PM that drive the case study decision-making agenda.Correlative relationships are also highlighted alongside causalinter-relationships among the dynamic interacting nodes of the digraphrepresentation, to fully explore the schema of project evaluation ine-government.     

基于模糊模拟的AHP在风险投资项目评价中的应用

利用基于模糊模拟的层次分析法评价风险投资项目,其中评价因素和评价因素的权重用模糊变量代替,利用模糊模拟技术处理评价模型,计算投资项目的期望值,这样可以弥补传统的层次分析法的缺点。最后,运用基于模糊模拟的层次分析法对三个风险投资项目进行评价。     

IS/IT项目选择决策的灰色逼近理想解排序法

IS/IT项目选择决策是一个多属性决策问题.针对传统逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)在确定属性权重系数上的缺陷,并考虑到在实际IS/IT项目选择决策过程中部分决策信息的不足,提出了基于灰色TOPSIS改进算法.算法运用区间灰数表达指标权重和指标评价值,定义备择项目与正、负理想解的灰色关联度,依此计算各备则项目的贴近度并实现最终排序.仿真实例验证了该方法的合理和有效性.     

Estimation of investment project profitability in the modified Cantor-Lipman model

The profitability of investment projects in the modified Cantor-Lipman model is analyzed. The possibility of making lower estimates of the investment project profitability by searching for periodic trajectories is studied. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a trajectory with the period 2 are derived. The sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of a certain trajectory with the period 2 are derived in the form of explicit requirements on the investment project structure.     

An approximate solution approach for a scenario-based capital budgeting model

Real options techniques such as contingent claims analysis and dynamic programming can be used for project evaluation when the project develops stochastically over time and the decision to invest into this project can be postponed. Following that perspective, Meier et al. (Oper Res 49(2):196–2 06, 2001) presented a scenario based model that captures risk uncertainty and managerial flexibility, maximizing the time-varying of a portfolio of investment options. However, the corresponding linear integer program turns out to be quite intractable even for a small number of projects and time periods. In this paper, we propose a heuristic approach based on an alternative scenario based model involving a much less number of variables. The new approach allows the determination of reasonable quality approximate solutions with huge reductions on the computational times required for solving large size instances.