建立在模糊逻辑上的模糊元胞自动机

总结了经典元胞自动机模型理论,并在此基础上把模糊逻辑引入元胞自动机模型中.通过对模糊元胞自动机的基本原理的分析,定义了模糊元胞自动机模型.模糊元胞自动机模型可以处理模糊信息,并且使模拟与现实世界的情况更为接近.     

基于二型模糊逻辑的元胞自动机模型

将二型模糊逻辑推理引入到元胞自动机模型中,把二型模糊逻辑推理与经典的元胞自动机模型结合起来,建立一种新的推理演化模型,基于二型模糊逻辑的元胞自动机模型.元胞自动机模型的关键部分是演化规则和元胞状态.将元胞自动机模型中的演化规则二型模糊化,将经典元胞自动机模型中的元胞状态模糊化为二型模糊状态,建立基于二型模糊逻辑的元胞自动机模型.     

武汉市COVID-19疫情与易感人群软隔离强度关系分析

本文基于2020年1月23日至2020年2月20日中国国家卫生健康委员会报告的武汉病例数据,通过引入表述易感人群行为特征的隔离强度,研究了易感人群软隔离行为对COVID-19在武汉的传播影响.我们将人群分为六类:隔离的易感者-暴露的易感者-潜伏者-无症状的感染者-有症状的染病者_恢复者,建立COVID-19传播动力学模型,利用蒙特卡罗法估计了参数并对模型进行数据拟合和数值模拟,得到了武汉市实施软隔离措施后的有效再生数、高峰到达时间、高峰规模、流行时间、最终规模等,同时评估了易感人群隔离率及易感人群暴露率对COVID-19疫情的影响.     

基于员工行为差异的元胞自动机演化模拟与机制设计

提出了企业员工的正行为、零行为和负行为概念,分析了员工中不同行为间的相互影响.对传统元胞自动机方法进行了改进,建立了基于员工传播性和保持性的元胞自动机模型,并对员工不同的初始比例、不同的行为传播性和保持性以及企业不同奖励和惩罚性政策下的员工行为演化进行了模拟,得到了一些合理和有益的结论,并对不同情形下的人员管理提供了针对性建议.     

一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设被传染的易感者一部分经过一段潜伏期后才具有传染性,而另一部分被感染的易感者直接成为传染者,建立了一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型,得到了确定疾病是否成为地方病的基本再生数以及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

基于元胞自动机模型的图像分割算法

针对图像处理中的图像分割任务,我们提出了一个基于模糊元胞自动机模型的图像分割算法.将元胞自动机原理中的演化规则换为模糊规则建立模糊元胞自动机模型,使图像中灰度水平介于目标和背景之间的像素得以更好地归类,从而得到较好的图像分割结果.     

具有常数输入的SEIR模型的稳定性分析

讨论了易感者类和潜伏者类均为常数输入,潜伏期、染病期和恢复期均具有传染力,且传染率为一般传染率的SEIR传染病模型.利用Hurwitz判据证明了地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性,进一步利用复合矩阵理论得到了地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

一类具密度制约SIS模型的全局稳定性和周期性

研究了一类具密度制约和双线性传染率的S IS传染病模型,考虑到了实际中对易感者和传染者的控制,得到了地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性和系统的周期性,并给出了生物学解释和仿真.     

一类具有常数输入和垂直传染的SIRI传染病模型

建立了一类易感者及染病者均有常数输入,疾病具有垂直传染以及一般形式饱和接触率的SIRI传染病模型,分别研究了p=0,0相似文献   

对角膨胀双变量Poisson回归模型在结核病影响因素分析中的应用

结核病的传播过程比较复杂,易感人群在受到结核病菌传染后可能会患上结核病或结核性胸膜炎,前者具有传染性,而后者暂时不具有传染性,但可能又会发展成结核病,具有传染性.为了探讨结核病的影响因素,利用对角膨胀双变量Poisson回归模型,将受结核病菌传染所发生的结核病患者数和结核性胸膜炎患者数作为模型中的2维响应变量,拟合D市在校学生受结核病菌传染的患病数据.计算结果表明:结核病患者与结核性胸膜炎患者不具有相关性;强阳率、痰菌检验阳性状态、宿舍密度、季节与通风状态差等因素是对结核病的影响因素,数据拟合效果较好,为对结核病的预防工作提供参考依据.     

A discrete epidemic model for SARS transmission and control in China

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a rapidly spreading infectious disease which was transmitted in late 2002 and early 2003 to more than 28 countries through the medium of international travel. The evolution and spread of SARS has resulted in an international effort coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO).

We have formulated a discrete mathematical model to investigate the transmission of SARS and determined the basic reproductive number for this model to use as a threshold to determine the asymptotic behavior of the model. The dependence of the basic reproductive number on epidemic parameters has been studied. The parameters of the model have been estimated on the basis of statistical data and numerical simulations have been carried out to describe the transmission process for SARS in China. The simulation results matches the statistical data well and indicate that early quarantine and a high quarantine rate are crucial to the control of SARS.     

关于SARS病毒传播的马尔可夫骨架过程模型

根据SARS病毒传播的特性和侯振挺等人提出的马尔可夫骨架过程理论，建立了SARS病毒传播的马尔可夫骨架模型，并得出结论，在任一时刻的疑似病例数，传染病人数是某非负线性方程组的最小非负解。     

传染病模型的研究及应用

分析了传染病的传播扩散特点,建立了传染病传播扩散的微分方程模型.利用最大似然估计法对模型中的参数进行了估计.并以SARS传染扩散为例,利用网上的公开数据对模型进行了检验,所得结果与实际情况一致.此模型为传染病的预防和控制提供了理论依据.     

Asymptotic behavior of an SEI epidemic model with diffusion

An SEI epidemic model with constant recruitment and infectious force in the latent period is investigated. This model describes the transmission of diseases such as SARS. The behavior of positive solutions to a reaction–diffusion system with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. Sufficient conditions for the local and global asymptotical stability are given by linearization and by the method of upper and lower solutions and its associated monotone iterations. Our result shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the contact rate is small.     

Hot mudflow prediction area model and simulation based on Cellular Automata for LUSI mud plume at Sidoarjo in East Java

We propose a new hot mudflow prediction model based on Cellular Automata (CA). Using our CA prediction model, we present simulations of the LUSI hot mudflow in the Sidoarjo disaster area. Our CA method to predict mudflow is based on a fluid dynamic model, because hot mudflow characteristics are similar to fluid. The CA model also takes into consideration landscape data, including features such as dikes and buildings. The Moore neighborhood model is adopted for CA to take into account the relationship between the cell of interest and the surrounding cells. A Gaussian interpolation is used to approximate the behavior of the hot mudflow over landscape features. We evaluated the prediction accuracy of our CA model, by comparing results from the CA model with remote sensing satellite data from the disaster areas and measurements of the mudflow disaster area. Simulation results of the LUSI hot mudflow show relatively good prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional models. Therefore, we conclude that the CA model will be valuable for predictions pertaining to hot mudflow in future disasters of a similar nature.     

SWEIA艾滋病毒传染模型及应用

人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)是一种严重威胁生命的病毒,感染艾滋病毒患者一般经历四个阶段:i)艾滋病毒阴性的窗口期(W);ii)阳性的无症状潜伏期(E);iii)有症状期(Ⅰ);以及iv)移除阶段(A).为深入研究艾滋病传播过程,建立SWEIA艾滋病毒传染模型,定义基本再生数,分析无病与地方病平衡点的存在性和局部稳定性,根据2004至2015年中国艾滋病患者数据,采用遗传算法对SWEIA模型中参数进行估计.通过对基本再生数敏感性分析以及模型数值随参数不同而产生的变化,揭示艾滋病窗口期的接触率是影响艾滋病流行的主要原因之一.     

证券市场信息传播的数学模型研究

根据信息的传播理论,从信息传播的实际出发,以股票市场中内部信息的传播如何影响股价的波动及交易量的变化为主要研究内容,从全新的角度建立数学模型来描述了信息自身的传播过程,预测传播的高峰时刻,分析其过程中股票交易量的变化情况.给出了该模型的两个定理.定理1说明:传播信息的投资者的人数先单调增加,然后单调减少并趋于零;定理2表明总有一部分人在信息公布之前无法得知内部消息.从模型得出的两个定理与信息传播的真实形式相符合,说明了模型的准确性.     

Experiments on the spreading of silicone oil droplets on horizontal rotating plates

The spreading of liquid films is involved in many coating processes, e.g. in the spin-coating process. To achieve a high quality of the coating, the spreading liquid layer should be thin and homogeneous. Instabilities at the wetting front may lead to an inhomogeneous thickness of the coating layer and to uncoated areas. In this article the spreading of perfectly-wetting silicone oil droplets with viscosity of 100 mPa s on rotating glass plates is discussed. A Schlieren system is set up to observe the wetted area and a traversed chromatic confocal distance sensor is used to measure the contour of the droplet. The experimental data are presented and compared to an analytical model which is derived from lubrication theory and valid for thin liquid layers. (© 2014 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A model of synchronisation in crowd dynamics

This study is motivated by the lack of adequate models of dynamic loading of civil engineering structures that are primarily occupied by active groups and crowds of people, such as footbridges, floors and grandstands. The primary objective is to develop a mathematical model of synchronisation of multiple people performing cyclic motion such as walking, running, jumping and bouncing. In conjunction with a quality model of individual loading, the sync model is the key ingredient needed to provide a reliable numerical generator of aggregate dynamic excitation of the supporting structure. The model describes the effect of periodic external cues on the crowd motion, such as perceptible vibration of the ground and a music beat, and the mutual interaction between individuals. The main feature of the model is that it is linear and deterministic, no randomness and no nonlinearity for the sake of simplicity and efficiency: it is inspired to models of coupled pendulums and the governing equations feature Mathieu-type behaviours. The modelling parameters have a physical interpretation and their values can be calibrated to potentially match experimental measurements.     

Temperature effects in thin droplets

Thin droplets spreading on a solid substrate are investigated, with a special focus on temperature effects. The aim is to manipulate the fingering instability which may occur in the spreading in a spin coating process. The analysis bases on lubrication approximation, valid for flat thin droplets, which usually is the case. The dynamic of the wetting is implemented by using a generalized law of Tanner, coupling the contact angle (CA) of the droplet at the (apparent) contact line (CL) with its speed. A one-way coupling is used to investigate, whether viscous heating has to be taken into account. It can be derived that its role is negligible in the spreading process of a thin droplet, even for a relatively large viscous influence (large capillary number). Analyzing the results of a linear stability analysis of the fingering instability and taking Marangoni-stresses (MS) into account reveals, that the instability may be suppressed by cooling the ambient gas or heating the substrate during the spreading. Unfortunately an comparison with experiments for spreading droplets in a heated gas shows deviations for larger spreading radii. The influence of temperature on density is investigated and on the way a criteria, from which it may be obtained whether a simple Boussinesq-approximation (BA) is appropriate or not. (© 2012 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)