基于MASIM的社会推理与计算系统

随着计算机和信息技术的发展,信息科学技术的研究越来越重视与社会科学的交叉,社会计算已成为国内外计算机及相关领域的最新研究热点.社会计算与社会智能研究的核心之一是社会因果关系推理和行为评判问题.基于认知和心理学理论,介绍一个社会推理计算模型MASIM以及基于MASIM的社会计算系统实例,并以此阐述建立社会推理机制和社会计算系统的若干技术方面.     

社会投入与社会发展关系实证分析:1995-2005

社会活动的投入是社会发展的动力,社会发展目标的实现,需要大规模的要素投入来支撑.在这篇文章中,我们采集了大量的社会经济统计数据,对1995-2005期间我国社会发展过程的要素投入与社会发展成果之间的关系进行了分析.全文主要内容有:社会投入体系的整体评估,社会发展成果的综合评价,社会投入与社会发展成果关系的数量分析,及在此基础上形成的相关结论.     

The Social Virtues: Two Accounts

Social (epistemic) virtues are the virtues bound up with those forms of inquiry involved in social routes to knowledge. A thoroughly individualistic account of the social virtues endorses two claims: (1) we can fully characterize the nature of the social virtues independent of the social factors that are typically in play when these virtues are exemplified, and (2) even when a subject’s route to knowledge is social, the only epistemic virtues that are relevant to her acquisition of knowledge are those she herself possesses. A social (or anti-individualistic) account of the social virtues, by contrast, denies one or both of these claims. I will offer some reasons for thinking that the individualistic account is not acceptable, and that one or the other social account provides a better understanding of the social virtues. The argument is not decisive, but it does suggest that the social dimension of social epistemic virtues is not fully characterizable in individualistic terms.     

Informational requirements of social choice rules

The required amount of information to make a social choice is the cost of information processing, and it is a practically important feature of social choice rules. We introduce informational aspects into the analysis of social choice rules and prove that (i) if an anonymous, neutral, and monotonic social choice rule operates on minimal informational requirements, then it is a supercorrespondence of either the plurality rule or the antiplurality rule, and (ii) if the social choice rule is furthermore Pareto efficient, then it is a supercorrespondence of the plurality rule.     

Self-organization and social science

Complexity science and its methodological applications have increased in popularity in social science during the last two decades. One key concept within complexity science is that of self-organization. Self-organization is used to refer to the emergence of stable patterns through autonomous and self-reinforcing dynamics at the micro-level. In spite of its potential relevance for the study of social dynamics, the articulation and use of the concept of self-organization has been kept within the boundaries of complexity science and links to and from mainstream social science are scarce. These links can be difficult to establish, even for researchers working in social complexity with a background in social science, because of the theoretical and conceptual diversity and fragmentation in traditional social science. This article is meant to serve as a first step in the process of overcoming this lack of cross-fertilization between complexity and mainstream social science. A systematic review of the concept of self-organization and a critical discussion of similar notions in mainstream social science is presented, in an effort to help practitioners within subareas of complexity science to identify literature from traditional social science that could potentially inform their research.     

The value of cognitive foundations for dynamic social theory

It is possible to develop models of social behavior that are predicated on detailed mechanical models of cognition. Cognitively based social models are potentially unified theoretical frameworks that can be used to explain a wide variety of social phenomena. Moreover, if a knowledge representation scheme and a knowledge acquisition scheme are specified in the underlying cognitive model then it is possible to produce a dynamic social model. The resulting social model can thus be used to predict and explain not only conditions for specific behaviors but changes in those behaviors over time.

Constructuralism is a theory of social behavior that rests on a cognitive model. The cognitive model specified has a knowledge representation scheme, knowledge acquisition procedures, and control procedures for shifting cognitive attention. The resulting social model is a dynamic model that can be used to explain both conditions for the occurrence of a behavior and social and individual changes that accrue do to a series of behaviors. The explanatory breadth of the model is illustrated by looking at predictions about a variety of social phenomena including: development of shared knowledge, identical behavior by members of the society, foreign language acquisition, clique formation, civil disobedience, and diffusion of innovative information.     

Evolution of shame as an adaptation to social punishment and its contribution to social cohesiveness

Feelings of shame are common among humans although shameless individuals do not seem to be handicapped in achieving social success in life. What then is the adaptive value of shame? How can shame have evolved? Here I simulate shame as the emotion that induces an increase in pro‐social behavior after receiving social punishment. Simulations with the agent‐based model, Sociodynamica, show that shame is evolutionary stable in a context of individual selection, without the need for including group selection as an evolutionary force. The adaptive advantage of shame is based on the fact that it increases flexibility to the shameful individual, allowing it to act selfish if the probabilities of being punished are low and achieving a reduction in the costs of social punishment when frequent punishment is likely. The results show that shame, together with pro‐social punishment and social cooperation, produce a fluctuating dynamics of social cooperation, achieving long periods where the populations stabilizes pro‐social behavior interspersed with periods where selfish behavior predominates. This temporal stabilization of pro‐social behavior might provide societies with sufficient time to build institutions that might stabilize sustainable pro‐social behavior. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2008     

基于不同社会责任承担模式的闭环供应链决策研究

供应链成员企业对不同社会责任承担模式有自己的偏好选择,探讨供应链成员企业承担的社会责任对供应链决策的影响.对于可能的任何一种社会责任承担模式,企业承担社会责任均会使产品销售价格降低、需求量增加、回收量增加.承担企业社会责任虽然会使自身收益减少,但其他成员和系统的收益却会增加,有利于增加消费者剩余,实现社会福利最大化.当承担的社会责任程度较大时,供应链成员企业能保持长期合作关系,使供应链正常运行.当承担的社会责任程度都较小时,由于供应链成员企业之间对社会责任承担模式的偏好存在矛盾将难以维持供应链合作,最终会导致供应链断链.     

综合国力的数学建模

本文考虑社会文明与社会导恶现象的制约机制，建立一个综合国力的非线性数学模型，从数学上讨论了相应的二次微分系统的Ｈｏｐｆ分叉，中心与细焦点的判定，极限环的存在唯一性等问题，并对数学结论予以合理解释，把社会相平面划成社发展区域，社会动荡区域和社会崩溃区域，研讨社会走向，确定纳入社会发展区域的途径。     

A methodology for conducting interdisciplinary social research

The Vienna Circle idea that science is an interdisciplinary enterprise leads to the question of how the knowledge of the natural sciences can be used to further understanding in the social sciences. Analysis of the practice of social research shows there is no easy answer to this question. Ideologies colour the use of exact knowledge in social research methods; even in the natural sciences ideological misunderstandings seem inevitable in research practice. The concept of strangification is introduced to describe this situation and to give a framework for a methodology to handle this problem of scientific regression. It is applied to the problem how the mathematical theory of complexity can be used in the social sciences to understand complex social phenomena.     

Network-based naive Bayes model for social network

Naive Bayes (NB) is one of the most popular classification methods. It is particularly useful when the dimension of the predictor is high and data are generated independently. In the meanwhile, social network data are becoming increasingly accessible, due to the fast development of various social network services and websites. By contrast, data generated by a social network are most likely to be dependent. The dependency is mainly determined by their social network relationships. Then, how to extend the classical NB method to social network data becomes a problem of great interest. To this end, we propose here a network-based naive Bayes (NNB) method, which generalizes the classical NB model to social network data. The key advantage of the NNB method is that it takes the network relationships into consideration. The computational effciency makes the NNB method even feasible in large scale social networks. The statistical properties of the NNB model are theoretically investigated. Simulation studies have been conducted to demonstrate its finite sample performance. A real data example is also analyzed for illustration purpose.     

Deliberative mathematics education for social democratization in Latin America

Latin America is committed to build more democratic social relationships as a part of its current democratization process. Mathematics education is a relevant set of social practices that could contribute to the consolidation of democratic social relationships in the school. This dimension of social interaction in mathematics education as a source of democratization is explored conceptually and is given a practical meaning through the discussion of an inservice teacher education program, which illustrates a deliberative democratic ideology of mathematics education.     

供应链视角下的增值税改革影响研究

构建了一个制造商和一个零售商所组成的两级供应链模型,研究增值税税率下调对供应链决策和社会福利的影响.结果表明,下调制造商、零售商增值税税率都会使产品零售价降低,提高零售商和制造商的利润.下调增值税税率给制造商带来的利润增量大于给零售商带来的利润增量.制造商税率下调导致批发价降低,零售商税率下调反而提高批发价.社会福利的变化趋势与潜在需求规模有关.当潜在需求规模较高时,社会福利总是随降税幅度的增大而增大,且税率降低后的社会福利大于税率降低前;当潜在需求规模中等时,社会福利随降税幅度的增大而减小,但税率降低后的社会福利仍大于税率降低前;当潜在需求规模较小时,社会福利随降税幅度的增大而减小,增值税税率下调损害了社会福利.     

基于模糊层次综合评价法的新疆社会安全危机预警模型的建构

新疆社会安全危机评价是一个多因素综合评价问题.针对新疆社会安全因素进行了分析并构建了层次结构体系.由于社会安全风险评价受指标体系设计难量化问题制约,由此采取模糊层次综合评价法建模并对新疆社会安全危机进行了评价.其操作方法包括建立指标体系、构建危机预警评价模型、求解评价结果三个步骤.     

基于风险偏好的供应链企业社会责任投入与定价策略研究

本文研究制造商承担企业社会责任时,竞争市场下供应链的均衡价格策略。通过Stackelberg博弈模型,探讨供应链成员的风险规避程度、竞争市场的需求波动性和竞争市场的需求相关性以及制造商企业社会责任水平对供应链均衡策略的影响。研究表明,在制造商承担企业社会责任时,风险规避程度对价格策略的影响依赖于制造商企业社会责任水平的高低;竞争市场的需求波动性较大或竞争市场需求相关性较高时,制造商向下游风险规避型零售商提供较低的批发价格合约, 此时产品的市场价格降低,消费者福利增加;当制造商的生产成本较低时,承担越高的企业社会责任导致消费者福利增加;反之,当制造商的生产成本较高时,消费者福利总是减少。     

Continuos social decision procedures

Classical social decision procedures are supposed to map lists of preference orderings into binary relations which describe society ‘preferences’. But when there are infinitely many alternatives the resulting plethora of possible preference orderings make it impossible to differentiate ‘nearby’ preference relations. If the preference information used to make social decisions is imperfect, society may wish to implement a continuous social decision procedure (SDP) so that nearby preference configurations will map into nearby social preference relations. It is shown here that a continuity requirement can severely restrict the admissible behavior of a social decision procedure. Furthermore, a characterization of continuous SDPs is presented which facilitates the examination of such procedures and their relation to various voting mechanisms.     

我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积的关联分析

基于动态物质流分析方法及时间序列分析方法,本文以我国1949-2012年年度数据为样本,研究了工业化演进过程中我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积之间的关联。研究结果表明,随着经济的发展和工业化进程的演进,钢以实物产品的形式不断蓄积于我国社会当中,且蓄积的速度不断加快。我国经济产出与钢的社会蓄积之间存在长期协整关系,钢的社会蓄积既能在短期内推动经济的增长,又影响着经济产出的长期整体走势,而经济产出只是钢社会蓄积变化的长期原因。这说明我国的经济建设高度依赖钢的使用,而且经济增长对钢需求的拉动是一个长期的过程,不会在短期内对钢的需求造成显著影响。     

基于ARIMA模型对海南省社会消费品零售总额的预测

对海南省社会消费品零售总额进行预测,对于了解海南省社会消费品零售总额的发展态势,为有关部门作出决策提供科学的依据,具有重大的现实经济意义.选取1999年到2014年的海南省社会消费品零售总额的数据来建立ARIMA(1,3,2)模型,2012年到2014年的实际值与预测值的相对误差5%以内,拟合效果良好,说明采用ARIMA模型预测海南省社会消费品零售总额是可行的,预测数据可靠.最后对海南省2015-2018年的社会消费品零售总额进行预测.     

企业绿色创新行为的演化博弈分析——基于环保社会组织参与的视角

绿色创新是企业应对政府环境规制的有效方式, 而环保社会组织的参与监督和引导则是对政府环境规制效果的有力补充。本文通过构建企业、环保社会组织和政府三方演化博弈模型, 研究企业绿色创新行为演化过程中三方主体的互动机理。结果表明:增加环保社会组织直接参与监督的比例、环保社会组织对企业提供的绿色创新支持、对企业污染行为的震慑压力等因素均能影响演化结果。最后从政府、环保社会组织和企业自身角度给出推动企业绿色创新的政策建议。