基于ARIMA模型对海南省社会消费品零售总额的预测

对海南省社会消费品零售总额进行预测,对于了解海南省社会消费品零售总额的发展态势,为有关部门作出决策提供科学的依据,具有重大的现实经济意义.选取1999年到2014年的海南省社会消费品零售总额的数据来建立ARIMA(1,3,2)模型,2012年到2014年的实际值与预测值的相对误差5%以内,拟合效果良好,说明采用ARIMA模型预测海南省社会消费品零售总额是可行的,预测数据可靠.最后对海南省2015-2018年的社会消费品零售总额进行预测.

Prediction of the Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Based on the ARIMA Model

the prediction of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan province has great economic and real significance for understanding the development situation of total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan province and providing scientific basis for the relevant department to make decisions.In this paper the total retail sales of social consumer goods of Hainan province data from 1999 to 2014 is chosen to establish ARIMA(1,3,2) model,comparing model prediction with actual value,which is from 2012 to 2014,the relative error rate is within 5％,the fitting effect is good,it is feasible to predict the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan province by using the ARIMA model and the predicted data is reliable.In the end,the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan province from 2015 to 2018 are predicted.