多利率下的寿险费率测算模型

为了能够在多利率条件下测算人寿保险的费率,本文建立了一个线性规划模型.根据该模型,能够合理安排保费资金的投资期限以达到最大的保险利益,从而为费率和红利的测算提供了依据.列出了两个典型寿险产品的计算数据,结果表明,寿险费率的测算主要取决于长期利率.对于储蓄型寿险,资金的运用应该以长期投资为主,分红水平可以由长期利率与预定利率之差来确定.     

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This paper considers a dividend strategy with investment in Omega model. If at a potential dividend-payment time the surplus is above, part of the excess are paid as dividends directly, the other part are used as dynamic investment capital, at a particular time, the sum of profits and investment capital will be paid as another dividend. Under this dividend policy, we get the optimal dividend strategy and the optimal portfolio policy.     

扩散风险模型下再保险和投资对红利的影响

对扩散风险模型,研究了比例再保险和投资对红利的影响．在常数边界分红策略下,得到了使得期望贴现红利最大的最优比例再保险和投资策略的显示表达式,并得到最大期望贴现红利的显示表达式．最后,通过数值计算得到了再保险和投资对期望红利的影响,以及最优投资策略与各参数之间的关系．     

带最小交易单位的Markowitz模型及算法

在证券交易市场中,交易规则要求购买的股票数量为整数.基于这种情况,将Markowitz模型中资产的投资比例改进为资产的投资数量,构造了一个二次整数规划模型.设计了求解该模型的算法,经过实证分析,算法是有效的.     

Optimal dividends in the Brownian motion risk model with interest

In this paper, we consider a Brownian motion risk model, and in addition, the surplus earns investment income at a constant force of interest. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividend payments. It is well known that optimality is achieved by using a barrier strategy for unrestricted dividend rate. However, ultimate ruin of the company is certain if a barrier strategy is applied. In many circumstances this is not desirable. This consideration leads us to impose a restriction on the dividend stream. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to admissible strategies whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant. Under this additional constraint, we show that the optimal dividend strategy is formed by a threshold strategy.     

Management of a pension fund under mortality and financial risks

The purpose of this article is to analyze the dividend policy and the asset allocation of a pension fund. We consider a financial market composed of three assets: cash, stocks and a rolling bond. Interest rates are driven by Vasicek’s model whereas the mortality of the insured population is modelled by a Poisson process. We determine investment and dividend policies maximizing the utility of dividends and of terminal surplus under a budget constraint. In particular, solutions are developed for CRRA and CARA utility functions. The methodology is based both on the Cox and Huang’s approach and on the dynamic programming principle.     

COPAR—multivariate time series modeling using the copula autoregressive model

The analysis of multivariate time series is a common problem in areas like finance and economics. The classical tools for this purpose are vector autoregressive models. These however are limited to the modeling of linear and symmetric dependence. We propose a novel copula‐based model that allows for the non‐linear and non‐symmetric modeling of serial as well as between‐series dependencies. The model exploits the flexibility of vine copulas, which are built up by bivariate copulas only. We describe statistical inference techniques for the new model and discuss how it can be used for testing Granger causality. Finally, we use the model to investigate inflation effects on industrial production, stock returns and interest rates. In addition, the out‐of‐sample predictive ability is compared with relevant benchmark models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the CPI using a lognormal diffusion process and implications on forecasting inflation

The Maximum Likelihood estimator is used within a lognormaldiffusion process and closed form analytical solutions are obtained.The monthly CPI forecasts are estimated for the period between1970 and 2002. The quarterly estimates of inflation rates areobtained from monthly forecasts rather than from quarterly data.This has significantly improved the estimates of inflation rates.The model also produced a superior fit as compared to randomwalk and GARCH(p,q)-M models. The adopted approach is foundto be simple, economical and generally suitable for modellingstochastic processes that reflect aggregation over time stemmingfrom many factors, and in which the transition path betweenconsecutive states is relatively smooth.     

Strategic Planning and the Investment-Financing Behaviour of Major Industrial Companies

The hypothesis that firms simultaneously determine their research and development, investment, dividend and effective-debt policies generally is substantiated in the financial literature. The determinants of research and development, dividend, investment and financing decisions of 303 firms are estimated econometrically during the 1976-1982 period. Moreover, an optimization model is estimated for a firm that seeks to minimize underachievement of desired investments, dividend and R&D and minimize the underachievement of desired effective debt. Management gains additional insights to increase the achievement of maximizing research and development expenditures at the expense of paying dividends and undertaking investments.     

Optimal investment and consumption with stochastic dividends

We use the statistical model of bandit processes to formulate and solve two kinds of optimal investment and consumption problems. The payoffs from the investment are dividend payments with fixed return rates, but the payment frequency is stochastic following a Poisson distribution. The financial market consists of assets which follow Poisson distributions with known or unknown intensity rates. Two kinds of consumption patterns are defined and the optimality of the myopic strategy, the Gittins index strategy, and the play‐the‐winner strategy are discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global plant capacity and product allocation with pricing decisions

Trade-offs in global manufacturing decisions involve markets, resource costs, trade-barriers, currency exchange rates, joint ventures and investments. We develop a model that optimizes plant investment decisions, while ensuring that the plant investment overhead is optimally absorbed by products produced from that plant. The model also, simultaneously, determines prices by products and countries. The special structure of the model is exploited to construct a fast solution procedure. The model is used to study the implications of labor cost, transportation cost, demand, and import tariff on production quantities, investment, and overhead absorption pattern. Implications of changes in other global parameters such as local-content rule, local taxes, size of the market in a country, and long-term exchange rates are also studied.     

判别分析法对增发股投资价值的分析及预测

本文通过增发股相关指标数据的特别处理 ,对增发股投资价值进行了判别分析 ,求得了判别函数 ,并应用于增发股的投资预测     

带有交易成本和红利的最优消费投资策略研究

本文利用HJB方程粘性解理论,考虑带有红利收益和交易成本后,对现有最优消费投资模型作了推广,研究了投资者在带有红利和交易成本情形下的最优消费投资策略。     

Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance

Email: r.d.baker{at}salford.ac.uk Received on 1 November 2006. Accepted on 15 March 2007. We use regression methods to predict the expected monthly returnon stocks and the covariance matrix of returns, the predictorvariables being a company's ‘fundamentals’, suchas dividend yield and the history of previous returns. Predictionsare evaluated out of sample for shares traded on the LondonStock Exchange from 1976 to 2005. We explore and evaluate manymodelling and inferential approaches, including the use of weightedregression, discounted regression, shrinkage of regression coefficientsand the transformation to normality of predictor variables.We also investigate alternative covariance matrix models, suchas a two-index model and a shrinkage model. Using suitable statisticsto enable the out-of-sample performance of competing methodologiesto be compared is crucial, and we develop some new statisticsand a graphical aid for this purpose. What is original in thispaper is an evaluation of many modelling and inferential proceduresfor which conflicting claims have been made in the literatureand the development of new measures of portfolio performance.     

控股股东对上市公司股利分配倾向的影响及实证分析——来自沪市A股上市公司的经验证据

当前对股利政策的研究主要集中在产权对股利政策的影响、自由现金流对股利政策的影响、公司过渡投资行为对股利政策的影响以及宏观经济波动对股利政策的影响等,而缺乏控股股东对股利政策的影响研究.现实中,控股股东对股利政策具有较大的影响,围绕控股股东对上市公司股利分配倾向的影响进行深入分析.具体而言,以2013-2014年度上证A股数据,建立Log斌ic模型和多元线性回归模型分析控股股东的几方面特征对股利分配倾向产生的多种影响.研究从理论上客观地评价了控股股东对股利分配倾向的影响,现实中对维护中小股东权益有重要意义.     

保险公司在固定利率下的离散型破产概率

本提出并讨论了在固有利率下含投资因素、红利分配因素的两种离散型破产模型，分别得出了相应模型下关于保险公司的破产概率、期望寿命的结论，推广散没有考虑利率因素的离散型破产模型的有关结论。     

基于TVAR模型的人民币汇率的价格传递效应

利用门限向量自回归模型对人民币有效汇率的价格传递效应进行了研究,分析了不同的通货膨胀环境对人民币汇率传递效应的影响.以通货膨胀率作为门限值变量,并以0.001 175和0.006 118为门限值进行实证分析.得到汇率传递效应在不同的通货膨胀环境下显著性存在差异,在高通货膨胀下汇率对国内价格的传递效应是显著的,然而在低通货膨胀下是不显著的.考虑了汇率传递对国内价格的非线性性,进而更加准确的验证了通货膨胀与汇率传递的相关性.     

Option pricing under joint dynamics of interest rates, dividends, and stock prices

This paper proposes a unified framework for option pricing, which integrates the stochastic dynamics of interest rates, dividends, and stock prices under the transversality condition. Using the Vasicek model for the spot rate dynamics, I compare the framework with two existing option pricing models. The main implication is that the stochastic spot rate affects options not only directly but also via an endogenously determined dividend yield and return volatility; consequently, call prices can be decreasing with respect to interest rates.