交通运输系统协调发展理论与模型研究

提出了交通运输系统协调度的评价分析模型.从系统论的观点出发,提出了交通运输系统协调理论的概念,探讨了交通运输系统随时间而不断演化变迁的规律,给出了交通运输系统协调发展基本步骤;并根据协调学原理,讨论了交通运输系统的协调性问题,提出了系统协调发展模型,对交通运输子系统内部及子系统之间及系统整体的协调发展问题进行了研究,探讨了交通运输可持续发展的系统协调管理过程,为进一步研究交通运输系统的可持续发展奠定了基础.     

旅游业-生态环境-城镇化系统耦合协调度研究——以宁夏回族自治区为例

旅游业(Tourism)生态环境(Ecological environment)城镇化(Urbanization)交互影响渗透,科学认识TEU系统中各子系统互动关系和发展演化规律,对于社会经济的协调持续发展和建立和谐共生的人地关系具有重要意义.依据旅游业-生态环境-城镇化系统交互耦合作用机理,构建旅游业-生态环境城镇化耦合协调发展评价指标体系;建立基于熵值法的旅游业、生态环境和城镇化子系统综合发展指数评价模型以及系统耦合协调度模型.以宁夏回族自治区为例,测度2004-2015年旅游业、生态环境和城镇化综合发展指数和系统耦合协调度发展水平,研究表明:宁夏旅游业和城镇化综合发展水平不断提升,生态环境发展整体呈下降趋势,表现出阶段性下滑和时滞性特征;系统耦合协调度整体不断上升,协调发展水平较高,但在2013年出现下行的拐点;系统耦合协调度和生态环境发展水平呈高度正相关关系,并随生态环境质量同时下行的趋势.政府要加强生态环境保护和修复改善工作,推动旅游业生态环境城镇化系统整体进入优质协调阶段.     

三级运载火箭供应链协调机制模型研究

供应链是一个基于"竞争-合作"机制的复杂系统,协调是供应链成功运行的关键,运载火箭供应链是一个典型的需要协调的复杂系统。在综合分析国内外研究成果的基础上,根据复杂系统理论研究方法构建了三级运载火箭供应链协调机制模型;进而对协调和非协调决策的情况下的价格、销量和系统利润等主要变量做了对比研究,证实了协调机制能够使产品价格降低、销量提高和系统利润增加,从而获得供应链成员的多赢;最后分析了研究的不足之处并提出了未来的研究方向。     

具有价格粘性的供应链动态模型及其协调策略

本文针对由一个制造商和一个零售商构成的供应链系统,在市场价格具有粘性的情况下,利用动态博弈理论分析了制造商和零售商如何确定其最优的批发价格和产品订购量以实现自身长期利润的最大化。本文首先利用汉密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼方程分别求解了供应链系统在Stackelberg博弈下的最优批发价格和最优产品订购数量。然后,利用数值算例说明了该供应链系统协调的必要性。最后,利用数量折扣契约协调了该供应链系统,并证明了协调的有效性。     

考虑双边服务水平的网购服务供应链协调契约

本文考虑了由单个网络商店和单个第三方物流企业(TPL)所构成的二级网购服务供应链,在双方服务水平同时影响市场需求的情况下,研究了网购服务供应链的服务质量协调问题。通过对比分散式和集中式供应链中各方的均衡决策,指出传统价格契约的不足,提出采用收益共享契约对供应链进行协调,并分析了该契约实现供应链协调的条件和局限。研究结果表明:收益共享契约能激励双方提高服务水平、实现供应链协调;协调契约实施前后各方的基本服务水平对各自的收益和服务决策均有正向影响,且相应的影响在协调契约下更明显。此外,研究还指出供应链系统可能会因TPL服务能力不足发生服务拥塞,使得系统运营效率降低。最后,通过算例验证了收益共享契约的有效性,并对主要参数的灵敏度进行了分析。     

基于双边激励的异质产品双渠道冲突协调

为了解决异质产品双渠道系统失调问题,构建了异质产品双渠道模型,设计了基于双边激励的双渠道冲突协调机制.研究发现,无协调机制下的系统处于失调状态,引入单边激励策略(消费者返利)能够较好的改善系统的运作情况,但是系统仍难以实现Pareto最优.在此基础上构建了双边激励协调机制,机制中的正向激励策略促进了系统总利润的增长,逆向激励中的转移支付能够公平地分配协调产生的系统利润,进而充分协调异质产品双渠道系统.     

基于可变模糊模型的非毗邻地区经济协调发展研究——以中俄豫伊两地为例

区域经济协调性是区域经济协同发展和可持续发展的基本保障,也是区域间经济合作和贸易的基础.以区域经济系统为研究对象,利用可变模糊识别模型对中俄豫伊两地2013-2019年的经济协调度发展进行了定量分析,探求两地经济协调发展的静态及动态机制.研究表明,近7年两地区经济经历了动态平衡到协调的调整和转变过程,向良好协调的状况发展.论文研究的成果,一方面梳理了非毗邻地区的协调度因素,另一方面为两地区加强经济合作和可持续性发展提供了可以借鉴的建议.     

需求与库存水平相关的供应链量折扣协调模型

考虑由一个供应商和一个零售商构成的供应链系统,零售商的市场需求依赖于该产品的库存水平,研究了利用批量折扣实现供应链完美协调的问题.首先,我们得出了在分散式系统下供应链无法实现完美协调,讨论了供需双方的最优决策.其次,作为stackelberg的主导方,供应商提供批量折扣计划,得出了此折扣计划实现系统完美协调的条件,分别给出了实现完美协调和不能实现完美协调时的批量折扣计划.最后分析了需求函数中的参数和产品的成本对实现供应链系统完美协调的影响.     

二阶特征值问题的非协调元逼近

本文以非协调三角形线性元为例,讨论了二阶特征值问题的非协调有限元逼近,基于二阶变分问题非协调有限元逼近的有关分析结果,不仅得到了特征值逼近解的误差估计,而且得到了特征函数逼近解的最优的L~2-误差估计和拟最优的L~∞-误差估计。     

基于回购契约的供应链鲁棒协调模型

研究了需求不确定条件下供应链回购契约协调问题。针对未知需求具体分布形式的两级供应链系统,建立了基于回购契约的供应链鲁棒协调模型。给出了仅知需求均值和方差信息条件下,集成供应链系统的鲁棒订货策略和分散供应链系统的鲁棒契约协调策略。分析了不同契约参数条件下的供应链及其成员利润情况。最后,进行了数值计算,验证了当获得需求的真实分布形式时．供应链鲁棒回购契约协调策略的有效性。结果表明,供应链鲁棒回购契约协调策略能够有效减少需求不确定性对系统及其成员利润的影响。     

陕西省经济发展、科技创新与生态环境的耦合协调发展研究

研究经济发展、科技创新与生态环境系统之间的耦合协调关系,对推进陕西省经济高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。在阐述“三元系统”耦合协调机制基础上,构建了评价指标体系。综合运用灰色关联理论和熵权法建立了综合评价模型,基于耦合协调度模型研究了“三元系统”之间的耦合协调关系。研究发现:创新驱动成为引领陕西省经济高质量发展的第一动力,各系统综合发展水平和耦合协调度稳步上升,但系统之间依然存在发展不同步、不协调问题,生态环境系统成为制约高质量发展的短板。     

An Integrated Market for Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Stochastic Power Producers

In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources, gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination between electricity and natural gas networks is foreseen. In this work, we examine different levels of coordination in terms of system integration and time coupling of trading floors. We propose an integrated operational model for electricity and natural gas systems under uncertain power supply by applying two-stage stochastic programming. This formulation co-optimizes day-ahead and real-time dispatch of both energy systems and aims at minimizing the total expected cost. Additionally, two deterministic models, one of an integrated energy system and one that treats the two systems independently, are presented. We utilize a formulation that considers the linepack of the natural gas system, while it results in a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model in accommodating high shares of renewables and the importance of proper natural gas system modeling in short-term operations to reveal valuable flexibility of the natural gas system. Moreover, we identify the coordination parameters between the two markets and show their impact on the system’s operation and dispatch.     

Coordination in decentralized assembly systems with uncertain component yields

The literature on assembly systems with random component yields has focused on centralized systems, where a single decision maker chooses all components’ production quantities and incurs all the costs. We consider a decentralized setting where the component suppliers choose their production quantities based solely on their own cost/reward structure, and the assembly firm makes ordering decisions based on its own cost/reward structure. When the suppliers control their inputs but the outputs exhibit random yields, coordination in such systems becomes quite complex. In such situations, incentive alignment control mechanisms are needed so that the suppliers will choose production quantities as in the centralized system case. One such mechanism is to penalize the supplier with the worse delivery performance. We analyze the conditions under which system coordination is achieved while respecting participation constraints. Further, we determine the optimal component ordering policy for the assembly firm and derive the optimal coordinating penalties.     

面向产品研发任务的知识层次协调模型及仿真研究

从微观视角量化分析产品研发团队中的知识协调过程,可以更为深入地揭示本质性规律.在理论研究基础上,提炼产品研发任务的复杂性,并提出团队学习是实现知识协调的重要方式.将研发任务的完成以相应知识层次的概率密度函数予以表征,并将团队中的个体学习与协同学习表述为对应层次的知识水平增长.从而构建出复杂知识性任务情境下的知识层次协调模型,并在此基础上探讨两种学习成本和学习时间对研发任务的影响.研究结果表明:①对任务复杂性的预判是知识协调的重要决策因素,并与成员边际个体学习成本、协同学习时间反向相关;②任务复杂性与成员边际协同学习成本正向相关.     

Hierarchical generating method for large-scale multiobjective systems

This paper investigates large-scale multiobjective systems in the context of a general hierarchical generating method which considers the problem of how to find the set of all noninferior solutions by decomposition and coordination. A new, unified framework of the hierarchical generating method is developed by integrating the envelope analysis approach and the duality theory that is used in multiobjective programming. In this scheme, the vector-valued Lagrangian and the duality theorem provide the basis of a decomposition of the overall multiobjective system into several multiobjective subsystems, and the envelope analysis gives an efficient approach to deal with the coordination at a high level. The following decomposition-coordination schemes for different problems are developed: (i) a spatial decomposition and envelope coordination algorithm for large-scale multiobjective static systems; (ii) a temporal decomposition and envelope coordination algorithm for multiobjective dynamic systems; and (iii) a three-level structure algorithm for large-scale multiobjective dynamic systems.This work was supported by NSF Grant No. CEE-82-11606.     

复杂装备研制协调超网络均衡与实现路径

复杂装备研制主体间呈现社会关系、合作关系、协调关系等网络关系,并且相互影响相互作用,其影响复杂装备研制的重要参数。为有效描述在资源环境约束下制造商和供应商的关系,探讨复杂装备研制协调机理与实现路径,本文利用超网络方法,设计了相互影响、相互作用的社会关系网络、协调网络和合作网络的复杂装备研制协调超网络,并将社会关系水平、协调度和合作水平作为超网络的3个决策变量,建立基于关系价值最大、协调成本最低、协调风险最小、合作收益最大、合作风险最小和成本最小等不同偏好下的多目标最优决策模型,构建了复杂装备研制超网络均衡模型,并利用其探讨超网络均衡和实现路径。     

A note on coordination in decentralized assembly systems with uncertain component yields

Gurnani and Gerchak [H. Gurnani, Y. Gerchak, Coordination in decentralized assembly systems with uncertain component yields, European Journal of Operational Research 176 (2007) 1559–1576] study coordination of a decentralized assembly system in which the demand of the assembler is deterministic and the component yields are random. They present incentive alignment control mechanisms under which system coordination is achieved. In this note, we extend Gurnani and Gerchak’s model to the case of positive salvage value and n asymmetric suppliers, and show that the shortage penalty contract which can coordinate Gurnani and Gerchak’s model no longer coordinates the extended model. Furthermore, we present a new kind of contract, surplus subsidy contract, to coordinate the extended model and prove that the profit of the supply chain under coordination can be arbitrarily divided between the component suppliers and the assembler.     

Coordination mechanism for a deteriorating item in a two-level supply chain system

The subject of the coordination between the suppliers and the buyers in multi-echelon inventory-distribution systems has been studied by many researchers. This paper considers a supply chain including a manufacturer and several buyers and assumes that the inventory items deteriorate over time and its inventory level decreases. In order to determine the order policies, coordination over the supply chain is achieved by scheduling the buyers’ delivery days and their coordination with the manufacturer’s production cycle. A mathematical model is developed and analyzed. To test the efficiency of the proposed model, two other models with the supposition of lot-sizing policies with common order cycle and independent deciding are also developed. In comparison to the other two models, the numerical results show that the synchronizing model of production and delivery cycles works better and has less total cost. In addition, in order to encourage the buyers in cooperation, a model on profit sharing is proposed that equitably shares the total savings with all the parties.     

回购契约下突发事件影响供应商的生产响应策略

在分析基准回购契约协调模型基础上,建立突发事件后影响供应商生产能力回购契约协调模型,研究在供应商生产成本增加的前提下供应商选择增产和不增产两种响应策略及相应的满足条件,同时给出突发事件后供应商为增产生产成本合理上限以及零售商合理销售价格的下限,最后通过算例验证了该模型的科学性和可行性.