具有年龄结构的离散HIV/AIDS模型的全局分析

本文根据艾滋病传播的特点建立了有年龄结构的高维离散SIA模型,和有干预的具有年龄结构的离散HIV模型.对每种模型,我们首先给出了建模思想,用差分方程建立了数学模型,然后对模型平衡点的稳定性进行了理论分析,得出一定条件下模型无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性.另外,本文还给出了模型的基本再生数,其意义为一个病人在染病期内平均感染的人数,基本再生数决定了模型无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性和稳定性.     

一类带有潜伏期和部分免疫的传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设被接种者具有部分免疫,建立了一类具有潜伏期和接种的SEIR传染病模型,借助再生矩阵得到了确定此接种模型动力学行为的基本再生数.当基本再生数小于1时,模型只有无病平衡点;当基本再生数大于1时,除无病平衡点外,模型还有唯一的地方病平衡点.借助Liapunov函数,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

一类具有时滞的流行病模型分析

讨论了一类带有时滞的SE IS流行病模型,并讨论了阈值、平衡点和稳定性.模型是一个具有确定潜伏期的时滞微分方程模型,在这里我们得到了各类平衡点存在条件的阈值R0;当R0<1时,只有无病平衡点P0,且是全局渐近稳定的;当R0>1时,除无病平衡点外还存在唯一的地方病平衡点Pe,且该平衡点是绝对稳定的.     

一类比率型功能性反应捕食模型的稳定性分析

研究了一类具有比率型功能性反应的捕食模型,对模型进行了定性和稳定性分析,讨论了模型唯一正平衡点的存在条件,以及模型各个平衡点的性态.得到了各个平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.通过绘制模型的相轨线,分析轨线的走向得到了原点全局渐近稳定的条件,并证明了模型不存在非平凡正周期解的条件,通过构造Lyapunov函数得到了模型的唯一正平衡点是全局渐近稳定的结论.     

具有非线性传染率的疱疹动力学模型分析

建立了一个具有非线性传染率的疱疹动力学模型.首先用数学方法分析了平衡点的存在性与模型基本再生数之间的关系.其次,通过简单的变换把模型变为容易研究的Lienard等式的形式.最后,应用Lyapunov稳定性原理得到模型的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性条件.     

垂直传染与环境因素对野牛布鲁氏菌传播的影响研究

研究了布鲁氏菌通过水平和垂直传染在野牛种群中传播的非线性动态模型.在SIR模型中引入了环境中的布鲁氏菌对野牛的影响,并提出了一种SIRB模型.分别算出了该模型的无病平衡点P_0和地方病平衡点P*,利用再生矩阵得到模型的阈值R_0,证明了模型平衡点的稳定性由阈值的大小所决定,即R_0 1时,通过构造合适的Lyapunov函数,证得无病平衡点全局渐近稳定.当R_0 1时,利用几何方法,证得地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定.     

无标度网络上带有时滞的SIRS模型的稳定性分析

建立了一个无标度网络上带有时滞的SIRS模型,并分析了在度不相关情况下模型的动力学性态.当基本再生数R_01时,模型只有无病平衡点,运用Jacobi矩阵和Lyapunov泛函得出无病平衡点的全局稳定性;当R_01时,无病平衡点不稳定,存在唯一地方病平衡点且是持续的.     

具有染病者输入的离散SIR传染病模型分析

引入相应的概率建立了具有染病者输入的离散SIR传染病模型,确定了决定其动力学性态的阂值.在阈值之下模型仅存在无病平衡点,且无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;在阈值之上模型是一致持续的,有唯一的地方病平衡点存在,且地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的.     

具有垂直传染的年龄结构SEIR流行病模型的稳定性

本文讨论了一类具有垂直传染的年龄结构SEIR 流行病模型,运用有界线性算子半群理论证明了模型本身非负解的存在唯一性.运用微分方程及积分方程中的理论和方法, 研究了该模型平衡点的稳定性,得到了无病平衡点与地方病平衡点的稳定性条件.     

媒体报道对一类具有潜伏期的传染病控制的影响

针对媒体报道产生的信息对一类具有潜伏期的传染病控制的影响问题,建立了一类带时滞的传染病模型.计算得到模型的基本再生数R_0并证明了当R0<1时,无病平衡点局部渐近稳定.通过分析模型正平衡点处对应的特征方程,得到了模型在正平衡点处稳定的条件,给出了正平衡点处会出现Hopf分支的临界条件并得到相关结论.     

System dynamics of euthrophication processes in lakes

Eutrophication is the phenomenon observed in the bodies of water that receive large influxes of nutrients due to agricultural runoff or urban waste disposal. It is characterized by blooms of either green or blue-green algae (often noxious smelling) and by a drastic reduction in dissolved oxygen and often makes it impossible for many species of fish and zooplankton to live in the water. The objective was to examine the effects of eutrophication on plankton seasonal dynamics. Simulation models have been used primary tool in the study of eutrophication in lakes. Many eutrophication models have been developed both to predict the effect of nutrient additions on lake biota and to examine how effective various nutrient diversions alternatives might be improved water quality. Systems dynamics was studied using the model, which is expressed as a series of four differential equations as its state variables for the rates of change of phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrogen and phosphorus. Influence of the phosphorus concentration on eutrophication was treated and studied as the one of the most important process in the lake ecosystem.     

A kind of non‐traditional biomanipulation model with constant releasing fish

On the basis of the ideas of non‐traditional biomanipulation control in fresh water body, a kind of nutrient–algae fish model is presented to investigate the effects of constant releasing fish on the nutrient and the algae. The threshold conditions for the extinction of the algae are obtained by discussing the stability of boundary equilibrium. The conditions for the coexistence of the algae and the fish are obtained by discussing the existence and stability of positive equilibrium. Besides, Hopf bifurcation is also analyzed by considering the parameter about the amount of the released fish. Furthermore, a kind of optimal problem is presented, and the necessary condition for the existence of the optimal solution is given by Pontryagin maximum principle. Finally, the mathematical results are verified by numerical simulations. The mathematical results show that there is a threshold amount of the released fish, above which the activity of releasing fish can control the growth of the algae and further reduce the probability of the algae bloom, but can not decrease the eutrophication level of the water body. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS FOR AN ALASKA FISHERY

We compute the effects on the Alaska economy of reduced pollock harvests from rising sea surface temperature using a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model coupled with a stochastic stock‐yield projection model for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock. We show that the effects of decreased pollock harvest are offset to some extent by increased pollock price, and that fuel costs and the world demand for the fish, as well as the reduced supply of the fish from rising sea surface temperature, are also important factors that determine the economic and welfare effects.     

亚热带高原湖泊水质方程一类自由初边值问题

亚热带高原湖泊除了有来自工业、农业，生活污水及落尘的外部污染，还有来自湖泊藻类水生生物循环及底泥的污染物释放内污染源污染。因此，由于进出水量不均衡性导致湖水边界的自由变动。本文首先运用微元分析法导出在外源和内源双重污染下湖泊水质模型，然后对一类自由初边值问题通过对非柱形边界条件的齐次约化，运用变分型算子的向量扩张和拟单调方法获得解的存在性、唯一性。     

太湖白鱼和梅鲚的数量增长模型

太湖的主要肉食性鱼类是白鱼,它是捕食梅鲚的主要鱼类.在建立了反映两者相互关系的数学模型后,分析了模型的稳定性、稳健性,通过数值模拟得到了种群数量随时间变化的曲线和相应的轨线,并探讨了捕捞强度、增殖放流对种群数量的影响.     

青藏高原不同半径热融湖下融区发展差异的非线性分析

以青藏高原北麓河地区的气象资料、热融湖信息和冻土监测数据为基础,以柱坐标系下伴有相变的热传导方程为模型,在假设不同半径热融湖湖底温度和湖水深度相同条件下,模拟了不同半径热融湖对湖下多年冻土热状况和融区发展长期影响的差异.计算结果表明,不同半径热融湖湖下土壤热状况和融区发展都有较大差异,精确模拟热融湖下土壤热状况和融区发展的数学模型必须考虑热融滑塌引起的热融湖横向扩展作用.     

Integration of mussel in fish farm: Mathematical model and analysis

The paper deals with the dynamical behavior of fish and mussel population in a fish farm where external food is supplied. The ecosystem of the fish farm is represented by a set of nonlinear differential equations involving the nutrient (food), fish and mussels. We have studied the boundedness, local stability and global stability of the model system. We have incorporated the discrete type gestational delay of fish and analyze effect of the delay on the dynamical behavior of the model system. The delay parameter complicates the dynamics depending on the external food from changing the stable state to unstable damped periodic trajectories leading to a limit cycle oscillation. We have studied the Hopf-bifurcation of the model system in the neighborhood of the coexisting equilibrium point considering delay as a variable bifurcation parameter. We have performed numerical simulation to verify the analytical results. The entire study reveals that the external food supply controls the dynamics of the system.     

Numerical modeling of hydrodynamic and hydrothermal characteristics in subtropical alpine lake

A three-dimensional, time-dependent hydrodynamic and hydrothermal model was performed and applied to the subtropical alpine Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL) in northeastern region of Taiwan. The model was driven with discharge inflow, heat, and wind stress to simulate the hydrodynamic and hydrothermal in the lake. The model was validated with measured water surface elevation, current, and temperature in 2008. The overall model simulation results are in quantitative agreement with the available field data. The validated model was then used to investigate wind-driven current, mean circulation, and residence time in the YYL. The modeling results reveal that the velocity field along the wind axis present the variations over depth with return current where the velocity at the surface layer is along the wind direction while it is opposite near 1 m below water surface. The simulated mean current indicates that the surface currents flow towards the southwest direction and form a clock-wise rotation. The calculated residence time is strongly dependent on the inflows and wind effects. Regression analysis of model results reveals that an exponential regression equation can be employed to correlate the residence time to change of discharge input. The residence time without wind stress is higher than that with wind effect, indicating that wind plays an important role in lake mixing. The calculated residence time is approximately 2-2.5 days under low inflow with wind effect.     

MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EFFECT ON THE NORWEGIAN SALMON FARMING INDUSTRY

Abstract Global warming is expected to affect the ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic, and substantial changes will also affect the aquaculture industry. Farming of salmon and trout is the biggest aquaculture industry in Norway, with an export value of about 3 billion US dollars in 2007. The objective of the paper is to analyze the potential economic effect a general increase in sea temperature can have on the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry. The assessment of the economic impact of global warming is made possible by estimating a growth function, which explicitly includes sea water temperature. The analysis compares the economic effect of a climate change on fish farming plants in the south and the north of Norway. The scenarios are based on a model with monthly seasonal variation in temperature.     

Modelling algal densities in harmful algal blooms (HAB) with stochastic dynamics

In this paper, we consider the growth of densities of two kinds of typical HAB algae: diatom and dianoflagellate on some coasts of China’s mainland. Since there exist many random factors that cause the change of the algae densities, we shall develop a new nonlinear dynamical model with stochastic excitations on the algae densities. Applying a stochastic averaging method on the model, we obtain a two-dimensional diffusion process of averaged amplitude and phase. Then we investigate the stability and the Hopf bifurcation of the stochastic system with FPK (Fokker Planck–Kolmogorov) theory and obtain the stationary transition probability density of the process. We obtain the critical values of parameters for the occurrences of Hopf bifurcation in terms of probability. We also investigate numerically the effects of various parameters on the stationary transition probability density of the occurrences of Hopf bifurcation. The numerical results are in good correlation with the analysis. We draw the conclusion that if the Hopf bifurcation occurs with a radius large enough, i.e., if the densities of the HAB algae reach a high value, the HAB will take place with comparatively high probability.