Multivariate reliability modelling based on dependent dynamic shock models

In this paper, we stochastically model positively dependent multivariate reliability distributions based on stochastically dependent dynamic shock models. In the first part, we consider a shock model with delayed failures. This shock model will be used to construct a class of absolutely continuous multivariate reliability distributions. Explicit parametric forms for the multivariate reliability functions are suggested. Multivariate ageing properties and dependence structures of the class are discussed as well. In the second part, we obtain two types of absolutely continuous multivariate exponential distributions based on further generalized shock models.     

Hybrid high dimensional model representation (HHDMR) on the partitioned data

A multivariate interpolation problem is generally constructed for appropriate determination of a multivariate function whose values are given at a finite number of nodes of a multivariate grid. One way to construct the solution of this problem is to partition the given multivariate data into low-variate data. High dimensional model representation (HDMR) and generalized high dimensional model representation (GHDMR) methods are used to make this partitioning. Using the components of the HDMR or the GHDMR expansions the multivariate data can be partitioned. When a cartesian product set in the space of the independent variables is given, the HDMR expansion is used. On the other hand, if the nodes are the elements of a random discrete data the GHDMR expansion is used instead of HDMR. These two expansions work well for the multivariate data that have the additive nature. If the data have multiplicative nature then factorized high dimensional model representation (FHDMR) is used. But in most cases the nature of the given multivariate data and the sought multivariate function have neither additive nor multiplicative nature. They have a hybrid nature. So, a new method is developed to obtain better results and it is called hybrid high dimensional model representation (HHDMR). This new expansion includes both the HDMR (or GHDMR) and the FHDMR expansions through a hybridity parameter. In this work, the general structure of this hybrid expansion is given. It has tried to obtain the best value for the hybridity parameter. According to this value the analytical structure of the sought multivariate function can be determined via HHDMR.     

Modeling fat tails in stock returns: a multivariate stable-GARCH approach

In this paper a new multivariate volatility model is proposed. It combines the appealing properties of the stable Paretian distribution to model the heavy tails with the GARCH model to capture the volatility clustering. Returns on assets are assumed to follow a sub-Gaussian distribution, which is a particular multivariate stable distribution. In this way the characteristic function of the fitted returns has a tractable expression and the density function can be recovered by numerical methods. A multivariate GARCH structure is then adopted to model the covariance matrix of the Gaussian vectors underlying the sub-Gaussian system. The model is applied to a bivariate series of daily U.S. stock returns. Value-at-risk for long and short positions is computed and compared with the one obtained using the multivariate normal and the multivariate Student’s t distribution. Finally, exploiting the recent developments in the vast dimensional time-varying covariances modeling, possible feasible extensions of our model to higher dimensions are suggested and an illustrative example using the Dow Jones index components is presented.     

误差服从多元t分布的一类线性模型下参数估计的若干注记

研究一类线性模型下参数估计的若干问题．这类模型包含了多个因变量线性模型、增长曲线模型、扩充的增长曲线模型、似乎不相关回归方程组、方差分量模型等常用模型．在这类线性模型下,证明了当误差服从多元t分布时与误差服从多元正态分布时,具有相同的完全统计量和无偏估计,且在后一种情况下的充分统计量必为前一种情况下的充分统计量．对于带有多种协方差结构的前述几种模型,把在误差服从多元正态分布下,相应的协方差阵及有关参数的一致最小风险无偏(UMRU)估计存在性的结论推广到了相应的误差服从多元t分布情形．此外,对于误差服从多元t分布的这类统一的线性模型,给出了回归系数的线性可估函数的无偏估计的协方差阵的C-R下界．     

Extremal behavior of pMAX processes

The well-known M4 processes of Smith and Weissman are very flexible models for asymptotically dependent multivariate data. Extended M4 of Heffernan et al. allows to also account for asymptotic independence. In this paper we introduce a more general multivariate model comprising asymptotic dependence and independence, which has the extended M4 class as a particular case. We study properties of the proposed model. In particular, we compute the multivariate extremal index, tail dependence and extremal coefficients.     

Latent scale linear models for multivariate ordinal responses and analysis by the method of weighted least squares

Summary A multivariate latent scale linear model is defined for multivariate ordered categorical responses and inference procedures based on the weighted least squares method are developed. Several applications of the model are suggested and illustrated through an analysis of real data. Asymptotic properties of the weighted least squares method are examined and some consequences of misspecification of the model are also discussed.     

Parametric Statistical Uncertainty Relations and Parametric Statistical Fundamental Equations

Multivariate parametric statistical uncertainty relations are proved to specify multivariate basic parametric statistical models. The relations are expressed by inequalities. They generally show that we cannot exactly determine simultaneously both a function of observation objects and a parametric statistical model in a compound parametric statistical system composed of observations and a model. As special cases of the relations, statistical fundamental equations are presented which are obtained as the conditions of attainment of the equality sign in the relations. Making use of the result, a generalized multivariate exponential family is derived as a family of minimum uncertainty distributions. In the final section, several multivariate distributions are derived as basic multivariate parametric statistical models.     

On the Type I multivariate zero-truncated hurdle model with applications in health insurance

In the general insurance modeling literature, there has been a lot of work based on univariate zero-truncated models, but little has been done in the multivariate zero-truncation cases, for instance a line of insurance business with various classes of policies. There are three types of zero-truncation in the multivariate setting: only records with all zeros are missing, zero counts for one or some classes are missing, or zeros are completely missing for all classes. In this paper, we focus on the first case, the so-called Type I zero-truncation, and a new multivariate zero-truncated hurdle model is developed to study it. The key idea of developing such a model is to identify a stochastic representation for the underlying random variables, which enables us to use the EM algorithm to simplify the estimation procedure. This model is used to analyze a health insurance claims dataset that contains claim counts from different categories of claims without common zero observations.     

A multivariate stochastic model with non-stationary trend component

The purposes of this paper are to introduce a multivariate non-stationary stochastic time series model without individual detrending and to extract the multiple relationships between variables. To infer the statistical relation between variables, we attempt to estimate the co-movement of multivariate non-stationary time series components. The model is expressed in state-space form, and time series components are estimated by the maximum likelihood method using numerical optimization algorithm. The Kalman filter algorithm is used to compute the likelihood of the model. The AIC procedure gives a criterion for selecting the best model fit for the data. The multiple relationship becomes clear by analysing estimated AR coefficients. Real economic data are used for a numerical example.     

多元测量误差模型的稳健GM-估计量

由于EV（Errores-in-Variables)模型（也称测量误差模型）的最大似然估计由正交回归给出，而正交回归对污染数据是敏感的，所以，需要采用稳健的统计方法来估计模型参数。本文在多元EV模型中引入稳健GM-估计量，把一元正态EV模型的若干结果推广到多元情形，所得的稳健性结果不仅更具一般性，而且还修正了文献中对一元情形给出的一个错误结果。     

The pairwise beta distribution: A flexible parametric multivariate model for extremes

We present a new parametric model for the angular measure of a multivariate extreme value distribution. Unlike many parametric models that are limited to the bivariate case, the flexible model can describe the extremes of random vectors of dimension greater than two. The novel construction method relies on a geometric interpretation of the requirements of a valid angular measure. An advantage of this model is that its parameters directly affect the level of dependence between each pair of components of the random vector, and as such the parameters of the model are more interpretable than those of earlier parametric models for multivariate extremes. The model is applied to air quality data and simulated spatial data.     

Multivariate generalized S-estimators

In this paper we introduce generalized S-estimators for the multivariate regression model. This class of estimators combines high robustness and high efficiency. They are defined by minimizing the determinant of a robust estimator of the scatter matrix of differences of residuals. In the special case of a multivariate location model, the generalized S-estimator has the important independence property, and can be used for high breakdown estimation in independent component analysis. Robustness properties of the estimators are investigated by deriving their breakdown point and the influence function. We also study the efficiency of the estimators, both asymptotically and at finite samples. To obtain inference for the regression parameters, we discuss the fast and robust bootstrap for multivariate generalized S-estimators. The method is illustrated on a real data example.     

多元t分布下相依回归模型参数的两步估计

本文把文献中关于正态分布下相依回归模型参数Zellner估计的有限样本均方误差结果和效率结果以及两步协方差改进估计的一般均方误差结果推广到多元t分布情况,在该分布下两种估计的统计优效性质均不变.     

Normal Linear Regression Models With Recursive Graphical Markov Structure

A multivariate normal statistical model defined by the Markov properties determined by an acyclic digraph admits a recursive factorization of its likelihood function (LF) into the product of conditional LFs, each factor having the form of a classical multivariate linear regression model (≡WMANOVA model). Here these models are extended in a natural way to normal linear regression models whose LFs continue to admit such recursive factorizations, from which maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio (LR) test statistics can be derived by classical linear methods. The central distribution of the LR test statistic for testing one such multivariate normal linear regression model against another is derived, and the relation of these regression models to block-recursive normal linear systems is established. It is shown how a collection of nonnested dependent normal linear regression models (≡Wseemingly unrelated regressions) can be combined into a single multivariate normal linear regression model by imposing a parsimonious set of graphical Markov (≡Wconditional independence) restrictions.     

Sequential order statistics with an order statistics prior

In the model of sequential order statistics, prior distributions are considered for the model parameters, which, for example, describe increasing load put on remaining components. Gamma priors are examined as well as priors out of a class of extended truncated Erlang distributions (ETED), which is introduced along with some properties. The choice of independent priors in both set-ups leads to respective independent, conjugate posterior distributions for the model parameters of sequential order statistics. Since, in practical applications, the model parameters will often be increasingly ordered, a multivariate prior is applied being the joint distribution of common ETED-order statistics. Whatever baseline distribution of the sequential order statistics is chosen, the joint posterior distribution turns out to be a Weinman multivariate exponential distribution. Posterior moments are given explicitly, and HPD credible sets for the model parameters are stated.     

ML estimation for multivariate shock models via an EM algorithm

Multivariate extensions of univariate distributions, though useful, have not been applied in practice mainly due to shortage of inferential procedures caused by numerical complexity. The multivariate Marshall-Olkin distribution is a multivariate extension of the exponential distribution. Its representation as a multivariate shock model makes it appealing for such applications. Unfortunately, ML estimation is not easy and special numerical techniques are needed. In this paper an EM type algorithm based on the multivariate reduction technique is described. The behavior of the algorithm is examined and a numerical example is provided.     

Modeling and Exploring Multivariate Spatial Variation: A Test Procedure for Isotropy of Multivariate Spatial Data

In this paper an exploratory technique based on the diagonalization of cross-variogram matrices is described. Through the definition of a model for the analysis and simulation of multivariate spatial data, a test procedure for the assumption of isotropy of multivariate spatial data is proposed. Applications to simulated and real data are reported.     

单失效模式双变量函数复杂系统模糊随机可靠性广义模型研究

在综合考虑系统功能函数变量不同属性的基础上 ,建立了单一失效模式下复杂系统模糊随机可靠性的广义模型 ,并讨论了广义模型与各个单一模型之间的关系 ,为产品在复杂状态下的可靠性求解提供了统一的数学模型 .分析讨论表明 :所建立的模糊随机可靠性广义模型更具有一般性 .     

Estimation of parameters in latent class models using fuzzy clustering algorithms

A mixture approach to clustering is an important technique in cluster analysis. A mixture of multivariate multinomial distributions is usually used to analyze categorical data with latent class model. The parameter estimation is an important step for a mixture distribution. Described here are four approaches to estimating the parameters of a mixture of multivariate multinomial distributions. The first approach is an extended maximum likelihood (ML) method. The second approach is based on the well-known expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The third approach is the classification maximum likelihood (CML) algorithm. In this paper, we propose a new approach using the so-called fuzzy class model and then create the fuzzy classification maximum likelihood (FCML) approach for categorical data. The accuracy, robustness and effectiveness of these four types of algorithms for estimating the parameters of multivariate binomial mixtures are compared using real empirical data and samples drawn from the multivariate binomial mixtures of two classes. The results show that the proposed FCML algorithm presents better accuracy, robustness and effectiveness. Overall, the FCML algorithm has the superiority over the ML, EM and CML algorithms. Thus, we recommend FCML as another good tool for estimating the parameters of mixture multivariate multinomial models.     

A multivariate semi-logistic autoregressive process and its characterization

An autoregressive multivariate stochastic model is constructed which yields a stationary Markov process with a marginal invariant distribution as a multivariate semi-logistic distribution. This model is denoted as an MSL-AR(1) process. Some properties of the MSL-AR(1) process are studied and its characterization is also derived.