军用机场四站保障效能评估方法研究

通过分析四站保障的影响因素,提出军用机场四站保障指标体系构建方法,运用系统分析法和Delphi法建立了四站保障指标体系,并形成军用机场四站保障效能评估方法,运用可能一满意度及层次分析等方法建立了军用机场四站保障效能评估模型.     

基于混沌遗传-支持向量机的空地攻击型无人机作战效能评估

空地攻击型无人机的作战效能评估在未来战场“去功能化”打击中具有重要的意义.在对空地攻击型无人机作战效能实时评估时,影响作战效能的评价指标体系因素相对复杂,建立作战效能评估模型存在非线性特点,因此本文引入了具有较强鲁棒性的支持向量回归机算法进行作战效能评估,在构建空地攻击型无人机评估体系基础上,利用混沌系统-遗传算法对支持向量机惩罚因子等参数进行优化,保证战场实时环境下效能评估的有效性和效率.通过实例分析,混沌遗传-支持向量机模型能够准确地对空地攻击型无人机进行有效的作战效能评估,具有良好的鲁棒性.     

基于超效率DEA的战役仓库航材保障效能评估研究

战役仓库航材保障效能评估是提升空军航材保障水平的重要手段.结合战役仓库航材保障的目标任务,建立了战役仓库航材保障效能评估的指标体系;运用超效率DEA方法构建了战役仓库航材保障效能评估模型,并运用该模型得到了15个战役仓库航材保障效能评估的结果和最终排序;最后以1号战役仓库为例,提出了增强其航材保障效能的改进措施,运行结果表明,改进措施切实有效,能够为提高战役仓库航材保障效能提供科学依据.     

基于LS-SVM的现代战斗机空战效能评估模型研究

现代战斗机空战是当前空中力量遂行作战任务的主要模式,其空战效能的评估问题也是研究的难点之一.在分析现代战斗机空战模式及七个关键影响因素的基础上,引入人工智能技术的思路和方法,运用LS-SVM支持向量机方法对现代战斗机空战效能进行了多级评估LS-SVM支持向量机分类器设计并建立智能评估模型,结合实例进行了计算和分析,为进一步研究空战效能的评估问题提供了一种新的思路.     

面向任务的网络化天基信息系统连续性效能评估

网络化天基信息系统以其快速的信息获取和处理能力在保卫国家安全、及时发现灾害等方面起到了至关重要的作用.本文以抗震救灾为应用背景,分析了系统的工作流程和主要任务,构建了多任务层次的系统连续性效能指标体系,度量了系统返回信息的密集程度.根据连续性指标特点,针对不同任务选择参考指标,建立了基于灰色评估法的效能评估模型,满足了系统面向任务的信息需求.利用仿真统计数据给出了算例,综合得到连续性效能评估结果,同时提供了连续性效能在每个任务层次的具体评估细节,为系统的设计和使用提供了指导和技术参考.     

基于概率论的防空武器系统对集群敌机的服务效能研究

论述了防空武器系统服务效能的概念,提出了服务效能的评估指标,做出了符合防空作战一般规律的假设,据此,通过概率论的方法分析了对抗系统的各种状态,论证了系统统计平衡状态的存在,进而建立了数学解析模型,最后得出了对防空武器系统服务效能的定量评估指标.     

地空导弹武器系统效能评估指标体系研究

地空导弹武器系统效能评估是地空导弹武器系统研制和使用过程中的关键环节.效能评估指标体系的建立是保证效能评估科学、合理的重要基础.针对现代地空导弹武器系统的使用特点,在W SE IAC模型的框架下,构建了地空导弹武器系统效能评估指标体系,并给出了指标的分解及确定方法.研究结果可为地空导弹武器系统效能评估提供支持.     

数学模型在高校领军人才评审中的应用

教育评估的可靠性决定了评估结果的可信性,影响着教育评估的声誉和发展.结合高校领军人才评审探讨了数学可靠性模型在教育评估中的应用,通过建立数学可靠性模型,计算评审系统的可靠性,并结合可靠性计算结果分析了影响评审系统可靠性的因素.     

基于贝叶斯网络的航材保障人员可靠性建模与评估

为了提高航材保障中保障人员的可靠性,在确定影响因素的基础上,建立了可靠性评估贝叶斯网络模型.以及评价指标体系,并通过算例对保障人员可靠性进行了评估和研究,结果证明了该模型的有效性,从而为降低航材保障工作时的人因故障提供了新的思路和方法.     

导弹武器系统生存能力研究

为了合理评估导弹武器系统的生存能力,分析了导弹武器系统所面临的威胁环境,提出了影响其生存能力的主要因素,建立了导弹武器系统的伪装能力模型、反应能力模型、防护能力模型、维修保障能力模型,以及生存能力的通用模型.最后讨论了各种因素在作战运用中的实际影响.     

On the Value Distribution of Shifts of Universal Dirichlet Series

Shifts of universal Dirichlet series are jointly universal, that means, roughly speaking, they approximate simultaneously any given family of non-vanishing analytic functions. In this note we study consequences of this remarkable property on the value-distribution. Partially supported by the Foundation for Polish Science (FNP) and KBN grant 1 PO3A 00826. Partially supported by Lithuanian Foundation for Studies and Science.     

Image segmentation by polygonal Markov Fields

This paper advocates the use of multi-coloured polygonal Markov fields for model-based image segmentation. The formal construction of consistent multi-coloured polygonal Markov fields by Arak–Clifford–Surgailis and its dynamic representation are specialised and adapted to our context. We then formulate image segmentation as a statistical estimation problem for a Gibbsian modification of an underlying polygonal Markov field, and discuss the choice of Hamiltonian. Monte Carlo techniques, including novel Gibbs updates for the Arak model, to estimate the model parameters and find an optimal partition of the image are developed. The approach is applied to image data, the first published application of polygonal Markov fields to segmentation problems in the mathematical literature. Work carried out under project PNA4.3 ‘Stochastic Geometry’. This research was supported by the EC 6th Framework Programme Priority 2 Information Society Technology Network of Excellence MUSCLE (Multimedia Understanding through Semantics, Computation and Learning; FP6-507752), and partially by the Foundation for Polish Science (FNP) and by the Polish Minister of Scientific Research and Information Technology, grant 1 P03A 018 28 (2005-2007) [the third author].     

基于仿真的空中进攻战斗效能评估方法研究

通过分析空中进攻战斗的概念定义、兵力编成和过程阶段,构建空中进攻战斗仿真模型,从多次仿真结果中选取战斗效能指标,对效能指标进行简化和标准化处理后,建立空中进攻战斗效能指标体系,在此基础上构建效能指标矢量空间模型和效能优势参数模型,并根据模型对效能指标进行优化分析,最后结合实际算例得出结论.     

区域废弃物网络系统的选址-运输优化模型

区域废弃物网络系统优化设计包括设施的选址和废弃物运输路线的确定。考虑了多类型设施、多种废弃物流和模糊数形式的废弃物产生量,建立了模糊机会约束规划模型来求得整个系统的优化配置。通过将模型中的机会约束清晰化,将模糊机会约束规划模型转化成等价的确定模型来求解。实例表明了模型的有效性。     

Dynamic system optimal performances of shared autonomous and human vehicle system for heterogeneous travellers

ABSTRACT

Autonomous vehicles (AV) can solve vehicle relocation problems faced by traditional one-way vehicle-sharing systems. This paper explores the deterministic time-dependent system optimum of mixed shared AVs (SAV) and human vehicles (SHV) system to provide the benchmark for the situation of mixed vehicle flows. In such a system, the system planner determines vehicle-traveller assignment and optimal vehicle routing in transportation networks to serve predetermined travel demand of heterogeneous travellers. Due to large number of vehicles involved, travel time is considered endogenous with congestion. Using link transmission model (LTM) as a traffic flow model, the deterministic time-dependent system optimum is formulated as linear programming (LP) model to minimize the comprehensive cost including travellers’ travel time cost, waiting time cost and empty vehicle repositioning time cost. Numerical examples are conducted to show system performances and model effectiveness.     

Modeling and SPM-dependent control of multi-rate networked control system with long time delay

In this paper, an efficient approach of modeling and control is presented for Multi-Rate Networked Control System (MRNCS) with considering long time delay. Firstly, the system is modeled as a switched system with a random switching signal which is subject to random networked-induced delay. For this, time delay is defined as a Markov chain and the model of MRNCS is obtained as a Markovian jump linear system. Afterward, a dynamic output feedback controller is designed for output tracking as well as stabilization of closed-loop system. The modeling and control of MRNCS are presented for two structures. At first, a new model of single-side MRNCS is proposed and a mode-independent controller is designed for stabilizing the system. Then the proposed modeling method is generalized to double-side MRNCS and by introducing the Set of Possible Modes (SPM) concept, an SPM-dependent controller is proposed for double-side MRNCS. To show the effectiveness of the proposed methods, some numerical results are provided on the quadruple-tank process.     

基于T-S模型的Lurie混沌系统的模糊控制

针对Lurie混沌控制系统,进行了T-S模糊建模和模糊控制器设计,从而实现了Lurie混沌系统的稳定.在用T-S模糊模型精确重构Lurie系统结构的基础上,利用反馈同步思想,基于并行分布补偿(PDC)技术,得到了简单且易实现的控制器.仿真结果验证了该控制方法的有效性.     

An intelligent system for prioritisation of organ transplant patient waiting lists using fuzzy logic

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of using fuzzy logic in a complex decision-making capacity, and in particular, for the prioritisation of kidney transplant recipients. Fuzzy logic is an extension to Boolean logic allowing an element to have degrees of true and false as opposed to being either 100% true or 100% false. Thus, it can account for the ‘shades of grey’ found in many real-world situations. In this paper, two fuzzy logic models are developed demonstrating its effectiveness as a model for vastly improving the current prioritisation system used in the UK and abroad. The first model converts an element of the current kidney transplant prioritisation system used in the UK into fuzzy logic. The result is an improvement to the current system and a demonstration of fuzzy logic as an effective decision-making approach. The second model offers an alternative prioritisation system to overcome the limitations of the current system both in the UK and abroad, as brought up by research reviewed in this paper. The current UK transplant prioritisation system, adapted in the first model, uses objective criteria (age of recipient, waiting time, etc) as inputs into the decision-making process. This alternative model takes advantage of the facility for infinitely varying inputs into fuzzy logic and a system is developed that can handle subjective (humanistic) criteria (pain level, quality of life, etc) that are key to arriving at such important decisions. Furthermore, the model is highly flexible allowing any number of criteria to be used and the individual characteristics of each criterion to be altered. The result is a model that utilises the scope of fuzzy logic's flexibility, usability and effectiveness in the field of decision-making and a transplant prioritisation method vastly superior to the original system, which is constrained by its use of only objective criteria. The ‘humanistic’ model demonstrates the ability of fuzzy logic to consider subjective and complex criteria. However, the criteria used are not intended to be exhaustive. It is simply a template to which medical professionals can apply limitless additional criteria. The model is produced as an alternative to any current national system. However, the model can also be used by individual hospitals to decide initially whether a patient should be placed on the transplant or surgery waiting list. The model can be further adapted and used for the transplant of other organs or similar decisions in medicine. Concurrently with the research and work carried out to develop the two models the investigation focused on the constraints of the current systems used in the UK and the US and the seemingly impossible dilemmas experienced by those having to make the prioritisation decisions. By removing the parameters of objective-only inputs the ‘humanistic’ model eradicates the previous limitations on decision-making.