中国证券市场股指波动的条件异方差特性分析

股指的波动具有持续性、集聚性 ,如何进行判别 ?本文用 Garch模型理论探讨沪深股指的这种条件异方差特征 ,进一步分析波动是否影响股指未来变化 ,以及股市对利好、利空的消息是否存在不对称的反映。同时 ,比较不同类型的股指的共性及差异 ,并对上述现象作了解释和说明。     

Interference of probabilities and number field structure of quantum models

We study the probabilistic consequences of the choice of the basic number field in the quantum formalism. We demonstrate that by choosing a number field for a linear space representation of quantum model it is possible to describe various interference phenomena. We analyse interference of probabilistic alternatives induced by real, complex, hyperbolic (Clifford) and p‐adic representations.     

Analytic Feynman integrals of transforms of variation of cylinder type functions over Wiener paths in abstract Wiener space

In this paper, we evaluate various analytic Feynman integrals of first variation, conditional first variation, Fourier-Feynman transform and conditional Fourier-Feynman transform of cylinder type functions defined over Wiener paths in abstract Wiener space. We also derive the analytic Feynman integral of the conditional Fourier-Feynman transform for the product of the cylinder type functions which define the functions in a Banach algebra introduced by Yoo, with n linear factors.     

广义极限鞅的一个收敛定理

本文引进了广义极限鞅的概念,证明了 L~1有界的广义极限鞅 a.s.收敛于—可积随机变量。这样推广了通常极限鞅的相应收敛定理,并回答了 Stout 提出的问题:L~1有界的弱鞅在一定的条件下是 a.s.收敛的。     

Computation of the quasi-stationary distributions inM(n)/GI/1/K andGI/M(n)/1/K queues

In this paper, we provide numerical means to compute the quasi-stationary (QS) distributions inM/GI/1/K queues with state-dependent arrivals andGI/M/1/K queues with state-dependent services. These queues are described as finite quasi-birth-death processes by approximating the general distributions in terms of phase-type distributions. Then, we reduce the problem of obtaining the QS distribution to determining the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of some Hessenberg matrix. Based on these arguments, we develop a numerical algorithm to compute the QS distributions. The doubly-limiting conditional distribution is also obtained by following this approach. Since the results obtained are free of phase-type representations, they are applicable for general distributions. Finally, numerical examples are given to demonstrate the power of our method.     

延迟和相关效应对Ne原子2p53s1,3P10-2p6 1S0跃迁的影响

利用多组态Dirac-Fock(MCDF)方法,系统地研究了延迟和相关效应对中性Ne原子2p53s1,3P01-2p61S0电偶极共振和复合跃迁的能量以及跃迁几率(寿命)的影响,给出了相应的跃迁能和辐射寿命,并与最新的实验观测和其他理论计算结果进行了比较.     

Parametric and Non Homogeneous Semi-Markov Process for HIV Control

In AIDS control, physicians have a growing need to use pragmatically useful and interpretable tools in their daily medical taking care of patients. Semi-Markov process seems to be well adapted to model the evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. In this study, we introduce and define a non homogeneous semi-Markov (NHSM) model in continuous time. Then the problem of finding the equations that describe the biological evolution of patient is studied and the interval transition probabilities are computed. A parametric approach is used and the maximum likelihood estimators of the process are given. A Monte Carlo algorithm is presented for realizing non homogeneous semi-Markov trajectories. As results, interval transition probabilities are computed for distinct times and follow-up has an impact on the evolution of patients.      

Estimates for transition probabilities on a compact manifold

The purpose of this note is to describe a procedure for transferring familiar estimates for transition probabilities on RN to transition probabilities on compact manifolds.     

A Bayesian analysis for the seismic data on Taiwan

A Bayesian approach is used to analyze the seismic events with magnitudes at least 4.7 on Taiwan. Following the idea proposed by Ogata (1988,Journal of the American Statistical Association,83, 9–27), an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times given the observed magnitude values is considered, incorporated with gamma prior distributions for the parameters in the model, while the hyper-parameters of the prior are essentially determined by the seismic data in an earlier period. Bayesian inference is made on the conditional intensity function via Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results yield acceptable accuracies in predicting large earthquake events within short time periods.     

中国股票市场波动特性的实证研究

本文以上证综指和深成分指数的日收益率为研究对象 ,应用 GARCH、TARCH模型理论 ,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性 ,同时比较了两个股票市场的不同波动特征